SPX Monitoring purposes; Covered short SPX 1/31/17 at 2278.87 =.09% gain; Short on 1/30/17 at 2280.90
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Sold GDX at 24.33 on 2/22/07 = gain 20.15%; Long GDX on 12/28/16 at 20.25.
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Short SPX on 1/13/16 at 1890.28
The bottom window is the McClellan Oscillator which closed at -169.92 and below “0” and bearish. The FOMC meeting is today and tomorrow and may mark a short term turning point in the market. High volume days are usually tested and March 1 and March 9 both had high volume and March 1 marked the highest volume which means it has more resistance when tested. This week is option expiration week which has a 67% of being higher and next week has a 70% being lower. There are two scenarios in play during the FOMC meeting; If March 9 low is tested on lighter volume a bullish setup is feasible for a test of the March 1 high which has the strongest volume and most likely will end up with a sell signal near the 240 SPY range. If market just pushes to the March 1 high, and volume is less, then a sell signal may develop again at the March 1 high. The FOMC meeting appears will produce a rally to test the March 1 high, we don’t know if the March 9 low will be tested first. We where hoping panic would develop in the TRIN and Ticks today to trigger a short term bullish signal but it did not develop. Still neutral for now.
We didn’t get our panic in the TRIN and Ticks today, which we where hoping for. However if market does bounce before the week is out and test the March 1 high and the VIX makes a higher low as SPY makes a minor new high a bearish signal could develop. Also if the March 1 high is tested on much lighter volume would add to the confidence of the bearish setup. Being patience for now.
It good to keep an eye on the longer term monthly charts to see it remains bullish; above is the Monthly GDX. The bottom window is the monthly Stochastics. In major bull moves the monthly Stochastics stays above 50 and in major bear moves its below 50. It appears to be turning up near the 50 level and remains bullish. The middle window is the monthly GDX chart with its Bollinger Band. In bull moves the monthly GDX stays above it mid Bollinger band and in bear moves it stays below. Monthly GDX is above its mid Bollinger band and remains bullish. Also the mid Bollinger band usually provides support and it appears GDX is finding support at the mid Bollinger band. Next window up is the monthly RSI for GDX. In bullish moves the RSI stays above 50 and in bear moves it stays below 50. The Monthly RSI for GDX appears to be finding support near 50. Baring a big break down in GDX, the monthly chart remains in the bullish camp providing GDX hold near 20 and above range. The timing for the next buy signal could come around Tax time near April 15 and possible near current prices on GDX. Timer Digest has us ranked #1 in performance for gold over the last 12 months. Sold GDX at 24.33 on 2/22/17 = gain 20.15%; Long GDX on 12/28/16 at 20.25.
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