Top Advisors Corner

September 2017

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Coppock Curve for DJIA Getting Up to High Level

by Tom McClellan

Years ago, a technical analyst and money manager named E.S.C. (Sedge) Coppock created an indicator that has since come to be known as the “Coppock Curve”.  Coppock never called it that himself, instead calling it his Very Long Term (VLT) Momentum Index.  That indicator is now getting up to a high level, which says that the uptrend is getting stretched. What Coppock wanted was to have an indicator that would help identify the really juicy bottoming conditions which only appear every few years.  It shows that when it goes to a deeply negative value and then turns Read More 

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Mary Ellen McGonagle: FACEBOOK HAS HEMORRHAGE WITH WEDGE PATTERN - Will The Stock Make a Quick Recovery?

by Mary Ellen McGonagle

Facebook’s stock dropped sharply last Monday following news that Zuckerberg will be selling up to 75 million shares over the next 18 months.  The 4.5% decline caused the stock to negatively break below its 50-day moving average on the most volume the stock has seen in over a month.    This type of heavy one day selling followed by the stair step type of trading we’ve seen in Facebook during the rest of the week is forming a little-known pattern called a Hemorrhage With a Wedge.  While the hemorrhage part or selloff can be one day or take place over one week (and you Read More 

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Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle September 27, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Short SPX on 8/30/17 at 2457.59. Monitoring purposes GOLD:  Neutral Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. The pattern forming on the hourly chart appears to be a Head and Shoulders top where the Head is last Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday trading.  Market could trade sideways a couple more days to form the “Right Shoulder”.  This potential hourly “Head and Shoulders Top” has a downside target to the September 11 gap and could find minor support there.  A test of the September 11 gap on higher volume will suggests the gap will fail and Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: XIV Volume Showing Sign of a Price Top

by Tom McClellan

The short VIX trade has been described recently as “the most crowded trade” out there.  But traders of XIV, an inverse VIX ETN, have not been all that excited about it lately, judging by the trading volume.  And that says we have a topping condition for prices. XIV invests in the two nearest month VIX futures contracts, so it is not a pure inverse VIX product.  The VIX futures sometimes behave a little bit differently from the spot VIX Index, and so anyone trading XIV should understand what they are getting into.  XIV has also become a darling of Read More 

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David Keller: Revisiting Consumer Staples

by David Keller

Back in July, I wrote about the Consumer Staples sector rotating from the “Weakening” to the “Lagging” section of the RRG chart.  I used this as an opportunity to find potential short candidates, looking for actionable breakdowns. This week I wanted to update the RRG to gauge sector rotations, and review some of the charts from July to see what has happened since. This was the RRG chart that I used on July 11th.  Note that the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) is circled in orange. Now here is an updated RRG chart, showing the action Read More 

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Mark S. Young: Wall Street Sentiment-- To the Moon!!!

by Mark Young

In our last submission, we said that we had what we call a Borderline "Secret Hedge Fund" Buy and that any weakness at all would confirm a good buy.  I admitted it was a bit of bottom picking, but barring anything serious on the horizon, buying  dips is what you should do in a Bull Market. I didn't see much trouble at least in the financial sector and while the technicals looked undeniably sick, the most reliable tool we have--one that has made hundreds of millions of dollars over the years was saying Buy. I said that I was looking more long, not less so and that we would buy Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Silver COT: Commercials Betting Against Breakout

by Tom McClellan

September 13, 2017 The price of spot silver is trying really hard to break a long term downtrend line, which would arguably be a bullish development if the breakout succeeds.  But the big-money “commercial” traders of silver futures are betting heavily on a failure of that breakout attempt. The Commitment of Traders (COT) Report is published every Friday by the CFTC, detailing futures positions held by traders in 3 different groups: Commercial traders are the big money, and usually the smart money. Non-commercial traders are large Read More 

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Tom McClellan: Gold's 13-1/2 Month Cycle: Right Translation

by Tom McClellan

 Gold has been pushing up to higher closing highs, which is getting the gold bugs all excited.  But we are now late in the 13-1/2 month cycle that is dominant in gold prices, and so we should expect a drop into the major cycle low due at the end of 2017. But there is a lot more to the 13-1/2 month cycle than just when to expect the major lows.  For starters, there is a mid-cycle low that usually arrives around the mid-point of the whole cycle.  The mid-cycle low is usually not as punctual as the major cycle low, but it is still important for figuring out the message Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle September 7, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Short SPX on 8/30/17 at 2457.59. Monitoring purposes GOLD:  Neutral Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. The top window is the 5 day average of the “Total Put/Call ratio”. Readings .90 and less have appears near short term highs in the market, which was reached last Friday.  Market moved lower on Tuesday on high volume and a bearish sign.  A down gap formed on Tuesday’s open and market is attempting to test that gap level which is near 248 on the SPY.  If the gap is tested on at least 10% lighter volume, than gap will have resistance Read More