Top Advisors Corner

November 2017

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle November 29, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX on 11/17/17 at 2578.85 = gain of .55%; long 11/15/17 at 2564.62 Monitoring purposes GOLD: Short GDX on 11/13/17 at 22.56 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. The second window down form the top is the SPY and below that is the High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG).  HYG has a good short term history of producing a divergence near short term highs on the SPY.  Today the SPY surged to a new high and HYG made a lower high setting up a short term divergence along with the SPY closing outside of its upper Bollinger band and add to the divergences Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

David Keller: Blue Skies for Airlines

by David Keller

As part of my regular sector and industry review process, I like to use RRG charts to better understand sector and group rotation.   I was surprised to see the airlines group rotating from the Lagging to the Improving.  This means that although the group has been underperforming, the momentum is starting to increase. Let’s review a chart of the NYSE Arca Airline Index ($XAL) to see how that relates to the move on the RRG chart.  Then we can dig deeper into some of the airline charts to understand the rotation in more detail. Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Mary Ellen McGonagle: How To Play The Hot IPO Market - One Sound Approach Can Get You In Front Of The Big Winners.

by Mary Ellen McGonagle

While the number of IPO’s listed in the U.S. continues to dwindle, there have been enough big winners in these newer issues to make it worth your while to check out these stocks.  After all, the powerhouse FANG stocks of today all started out as new issues. To be fair, investing in new issues is not for the faint of heart as these generally smaller companies can be quite volatile. Most new IPO’s can bounce around for quite some time while growing but once investors see a promising trajectory of solid earnings and sales, shares can be bid up swiftly.  Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle October 22, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX on 11/17/17 at 2578.85 = gain of .55%; long 11/15/17 at 2564.62 Monitoring purposes GOLD: Short GDX on 11/13/17 at 22.56 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral.   We where thinking that the large gap that formed last Thursday’s was going to get filled sooner rather than later; Turns out that was not the case.   Today’s rally did break above the recent highs and volume did confirm the breakout.  Today’s close did run into the upper Bollinger Band and is running into a round number both of which are resistance.  Volume most likely Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: China's 10-year Yield Bumping 4%

by Tom McClellan

Even before President Trump’s Asia trip, Chinese 10-year sovereign bond yields have been pushing higher.  And that means we should expect the same for U.S. 10-year T-Note yields. I wrote about this relationship back in May 2017, noting that a big spread between the yields in China and the U.S. can mark an inflection point for U.S. yields.  To identify when the spread was getting to an actionable point, I used 50-2 Bollinger Bands.  That designation means that the bands are set 2 standard deviations above and below a 50-day moving average.  I have left that moving Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle November 15, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral Monitoring purposes GOLD: Short GDX on 11/13/17 at 22.56 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral.   Yesterday the SPY ran into the gap level at the 259 to 258.5 level that develop between last Wednesday’s close to Thursday’s open and on lighter volume showing the gap has resistance. Not sure what will happen tomorrow but so far we have not seen the combination both panic in the Tick and Trin suggests a bottom has not been found yet   Statistics show that November option expiration are up 70% of the time but it appears this November could be Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: The New FANG Plus

by Tom McClellan

The InterContinental Exchange (ICE) has just rolled out a new futures contract called the NYSE FANG+™, based on the original four FANG stocks (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) plus 6 others.  The FANG term was originally coined by CNBC’s Jim Cramer.  Some analysts are seeing this as a sign of peak excitement over the trendy tech stocks, akin to a magazine cover indication.  While they may have a point, they are likely early in making this call. The ICE website describes the properties of the new futures contract, which is based on an equal weighting of the Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle November 8, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral Monitoring purposes GOLD: Covered short GDX at 23.23 on 10/20/17 =gain 2.56%; Short GDX on 10/13/17 at 23.84. Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. The above chart is the weekly National Association of active Investment Managers (NAAIM) compared to the SPX.  When the NAAIM reaches the lower Bollinger Band (like now) the SPY is near a low.  We have circled in red the times when the NAAIM broke its lower Bollinger Band and where is corresponded to the weekly SPX.  This chart suggests if there is a pull back in the SPX it should be Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

David Keller: Extended Uptrends in Asia

by David Keller

As US stocks have continued their relentless bull run, some of largest Asian equity markets have also continued to new highs.  Equities in Japan, China and India have broken not just on a price basis, but on a relative basis as well. Here is a chart of the S&P 500 SPDR ETF, along with the iShares MSCI ETFs for Japan, China and India. Notice that the S&P 500’s recent uptrend is at the bottom of the performance list, up just over 17% year-to-date.  Japan and India follow with YTD returns of 22% and 34%, respectively.  With its most recent break to new Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Mary Ellen McGonagle:HOW MUCH HIGHER WILL THE MARKETS GO?

by Mary Ellen McGonagle

There haven’t been this many bulls around since the running at Pamplona in Spain over the summer.  With over 63% of investors thinking that the markets are going higher and a mere 14% in the bear camp, (per Investors Intelligence Sentiment survey) we haven’t seen a sentiment spread of this magnitude since right before the ’87 crash. This bullish euphoria is during a period when stock prices are seemingly hitting a new high every day.  Last Friday, the Nasdaq posted its 61st record close for the year which matches the number that was reached for this Index during the dot-com Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle November 1, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold 10/25/17 at 2557.15=breakeven; long SPX 10/16/17 at 2557.64. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Covered short GDX at 23.23 on 10/20/17 =gain 2.56%; Short GDX on 10/13/17 at 23.84. Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. Today the TRIN closed at 1.33; readings above 1.20 usually produce an up day the next day.  There was a relative high volume day on Friday and if market does rally at test Friday’s high on lighter volume would suggests that high as resistance. A high volume low formed on 10/25/17 and most high volume lows are tested and if tested on lighter Read More