Top Advisors Corner

December 2017

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Gold's 8-Year Cycle

by Tom McClellan

We are now entering the upward phase of gold’s 8-year cycle, and that should bring some fun gains.  And this comes at a time when gold has not been getting much of investors’ attention.  If gold stays flat for a year, and Bitcoin twinkles to get all of the attention, speculators eventually drift away from gold.  That sets up a great opportunity for gold to start getting more attention, and more money thrown its way.  As with most market cycles, gold’s 8-year cycle is measured bottom-to-bottom.  But there is more to it than just that 8-year period Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle December 28, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes;  Long SPX on 12/27/17 at 2682.62. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 12/20/17 at 22.49 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. Yesterday the Tick closed at -216 and today the TRIN closed at 1.42 and a short term bullish combination. The above chart is the SPX on a two hour timeframe.  The pattern forming over the last several days appear to be a “Flag”.  “Flag” pattern normally appear at the half way point of the move.  If that turns out the case this time, it would give a target for the next high near 2720 range.  Long SPX on Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Architecture Billing Index Shows Continued Growth

by Tom McClellan

December 20, 2017  The folks at the American Institute of Architects, www.aia.org, publish an interesting set of data each month, collectively known as the Architecture Billing Index, or ABI.  The main ABI represents actual billings that member firms have sent out in the previous month.  They also have an “Inquiries Index”, which measures potential business as opposed to actual business. The reason why I find examining the ABI so useful is that it correlates pretty well with GDP data, and we get the ABI data well ahead of the GDP numbers, which only Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle December 20, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold long 12/11/17 at 2659.99 = gain 1.17%;  Long SPX on 12-6-17 at 2629.27. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Covered short GDX 12/12/17 at 21.40=gain 5.14%; Short GDX on 11/13/17 at 22.56 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral.   Yesterday a bearish Candlestick pattern called a “Doji” formed and today a bearish “Bearish Engulfing” formed suggesting market has at least stalled.  Today’s test of yesterday’s up gap on lighter volume shows short term support.  The McClellan Oscillator is right at “0” and showing weakness.  There is another gap Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Confidence, and What Comes With It

by Tom McClellan

There is a strong positive feedback mechanism involving consumer sentiment and the economy.  As conditions get better, people get more confident, which causes them to spend more, so companies hire more, which makes people more confident….  That all works until it doesn’t, and then the positive feedback goes the other way, making people get less confident as they see the economy slowing, making them spend less money, which causes layoffs, which makes people less confident…. The University of Michigan’ Survey of Consumers Index of Consumer Sentiment hit Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle December 13, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold long 12/11/17 at 2659.99 = gain 1.17%;  Long SPX on 12-6-17 at 2629.27. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Covered short GDX 12/12/17 at 21.40=gain 5.14%; Short GDX on 11/13/17 at 22.56 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. This is option expiration week and option related indicators carry more weight during this time period.  The chart above goes back near three years and shows the times when the 10 day average of the Equity Put/Call ratio reached .58 or lower.  At best the market went sideways when this ratio reached .58 and at worst produced Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Conflicting Messages for Crude Oil

by Tom McClellan

I like it best when all of my indicators agree, but I don’t get to enjoy that condition very often.  This week, I have conflicting signs for the future of crude oil. The chart above shows gold’s leading indication for crude oil prices.  The offset is currently running at about 20 months; it has been as low as 11 months in past years.  The basic idea is that the movements of gold prices tend to get repeated in crude oil prices. I call this phenomenon “liquidity waves”.  Think of a wave that passes under the end of a pier.  That same Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle December 6, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral Monitoring purposes GOLD: Short GDX on 11/13/17 at 22.56 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. Last Friday had a big jump in Volume suggesting “Selling Climax”.  Most “Selling Climax” lows are tested and if tested on lighter Volume would suggest support and could mark the next low.  This is the week before Option Expiration which whipsaws are common. Today the McClellan Oscillator closed below “0” suggesting the short term trend has turned down.  There is a cycle low due around December 13 (next Wednesday) plus or minus a day or so Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

David Keller: Big Tech and Big Round Numbers

by David Keller

I have always been entertained when stocks find support and resistance at big round numbers.  I’m not the only one to have noticed this phenomenon, as you can see from articles by stockcharts.com writers Arthur Hill and Greg Schnell.   Some have attributed this phenomenon to a behavioral bias called “round number bias” where people tend to gravitate to big round numbers such as 10, 100, and 1000 as anchors.  In fact, academic research has even recognized price clustering around round numbers. Why do big round numbers have such an influence on Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: QQQ Volume Gave Us a Tell

by Tom McClellan

The high volume seen in QQQ on a recent selloff was a signal that short term bearish sentiment had gotten overdone. The tech selloff on Nov. 29, 2017 was a peculiar one, as it was not echoed elsewhere in the market.  Instead, we saw the FANG and semiconductor stocks down hard, but the DJIA was actually up on the day.  And then the next day, all of the indices were up strongly, as if whatever was worrying tech investors on Nov. 29 was magically all over.  The high volume in QQQ was a sign of a concentrated moment of panic, which evidently washed itself out all at once Read More