Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle December 20, 2017


SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold long 12/11/17 at 2659.99 = gain 1.17%;  Long SPX on 12-6-17 at 2629.27.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Covered short GDX 12/12/17 at 21.40=gain 5.14%; Short GDX on 11/13/17 at 22.56
Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral.


Yesterday a bearish Candlestick pattern called a “Doji” formed and today a bearish “Bearish Engulfing” formed suggesting market has at least stalled.  Today’s test of yesterday’s up gap on lighter volume shows short term support.  The McClellan Oscillator is right at “0” and showing weakness.  There is another gap at the previous high near 265 on the SPY which has higher volume which in turn suggest stronger support and an area where a bullish setup could form.  If the 265 range is support the TRIN and TICK should show signs of panic. With the market reaching a “frothy” state, a trading range could be developing that could last into January. Staying neutral for now.

The average SPX gain for the month of December is 1.6% and the current high gain stands at 1.85%.  SPX has already reached its average gain for the Month of December along with bearish readings in the 10 and 21 day equity put/call ratios and upper Bollinger band being touched would suggests market is at short term extremes. More evidence that market may at least stall here is in the top window which is the New Highs/New Lows percent and readings near 25 and above have stalled the market or produced a decline in the past.  Market gains could be tough for rest of December. Sold long 12/11/17 at 2659.99 = gain 1.17%; Long SPX on 12-6-17 at 2629.27   

The COT Commercials covered their short position to 119K last week; down from 190K the week before.  The Commercial short of 119K have appeared at intermediate term bottom for gold.  The bottom window is the Up/Down volume indicator which is holding above “0” next window up is the Advance/Decline indicator which also holding above “0” and bullish for GDX.  Yesterday, GDX gaped up and tested the last Thursday’s high on much lighter volume showing Thursday high has resistance.  Today GDX tested yesterday’s high on lighter volume also showing resistance.  What may transpire in the coming days is a test of the open gap before heading higher.  A close above the previous lows of November for GDX will be a bullish sign for the intermediate term.  A bullish setup could form in the gap area near 21.80 on GDX.  We covered our short position on 12/12/17 at 21.42=gain of  5.14%; short GDX on 11/13/17 at 22.56. 

Tim Ord, 

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