Top Advisors Corner

February 2018

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Stock Market In a Rogue Waver

by Tom McClellan

 The stock market is just coming out of a big rogue wave event.  And that gives us clues about what lies ahead. The term “rogue wave” gets used in other areas of science, most notably in analysis of big waves in the ocean.  But they can occur in any medium where wave action is present, not just the ocean.  They have even been observed in the transmission of light waves through fiber optic cables. Rogue waves in the ocean get a lot of attention, especially from ship designers who need to make a hull and keel that are strong enough not to be broken Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Big Change In Bull-Bear Spread

by Tom McClellan

 The latest data from Investors Intelligence showed a huge change this week.  Bulls dropped from 66% to 54.4%, and bears rose from 12.6% to 15.5%.  That means the spread between bulls and bears dropped by 14.5 percentage points, which is the biggest one-week drop since July 2011.  Drops of more than 6 percentage points usually mark washout bottoms for prices.  That July 2011 drop in the bull-bear came as prices crashed down 19%, following the sudden cutoff of QE2.  And there was a similar 14.5 percentage point drop in May 2010, the week of the Read More 

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Mark S. Young: Wall Street Sentiment-- End of the Bull! Er, Maybe Not!

by Mark Young

In our last submission, I said that in a nutshell, everything looked great, with the trend up, the market making new highs, improved growth, and Market Breadth very strong. I also noted that those who lend money to companies in the financial industry were commanding exactly ZERO extra risk premium on money loaned over non-financial companies -- meaning that there was very little chance of something going wrong behind the scenes in the financial industry. I was thinking that with some excessive Bullishness at AAII and some negative seasonality, there was something of a set up for a little Read More 

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Mary Ellen McGonagle: Correction or Bear Market?

by Mary Ellen McGonagle

“Using Longer Term Charts Along With Certain Indicators Will Provide Insight and Perspective.” It’s been a tough couple of days for the markets with declines (before today’s open) over the last 6 days of trading amounting to 6% for the S&P 500 and 7% for the more concentrated Dow Jones Industrial Average. And based on the price action into the close today, the markets appear to be headed toward further downside tomorrow. While all of this has some investors in a panic mode – Vanguard’s client computer servers apparently crashed yesterday with all of the increased traffic – Read More 

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David Keller: CandleGlance for Corrections

by David Keller

Last week, I watched the S&P 500 become overbought on both the weekly and daily charts.  I also noticed stocks like Visa (V) display bearish engulfing patterns, suggesting a correction was imminent. The next thing I did was add a “Correction Watch” page to my stockcharts.com Chart List.  For me, this means simply a daily chart of each of the Dow 30 stocks with 50 and 200-day moving averages. When the market corrects, as much as people love to debate downside objectives for a broad benchmark such as the S&P 500, you can better understand the dynamics of the correction by Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Spike Takes it Above All of its Futures

by Tom McClellan

 The scary selloff on Friday, Feb. 2 took price indicators down to oversold readings, and it took the VIX up to its highest reading since the November 2016 election.  In the process, it also rose up above the price of all of its futures contracts.  In an uptrend, that is a pretty rare occurrence.  The VIX Index is determined by how much volatility premium is getting priced into SP500 options, and so it reflects the relative degree of fear being felt by options traders. VIX futures are different, and do not have a tie-in to any physical product Read More