Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Japanese Yen Disagrees With Gold

by Tom McClellan

 The price of gold carries on an interesting relationship with the exchange rate of the Japanese yen versus the dollar.  Most of the time, the two move together, but they occasionally disagree.  When that happens, it is usually the chart plot of the yen which ends up being “right” about where both are headed. That is relevant at the moment because the dollar price of gold is making lower highs and lower lows, but the yen is showing a bullish divergence.  The yen is not yet making higher highs, but it is making at least a higher low, and that is different from what the Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle June 27, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral Monitoring purposes GOLD: neutral Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Neutral The bottom window is the NYSE Advance/NYSE Decline issues with a 4 period moving average which remains below 1.25 and bearish for now.  Next window up is the NYSE Advancing issues with 4 day average (blue) and NYSE declining issues with 4 day average (red).  When the blue line is on top than an uptrend is in progress; when red line is on top than decline is in progress and today’s market action produced a red line on top and bearish for now.  Seasonality turns Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle June 20, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Covered 6/19/18 at 2762.57 =gain .61%;  Short SPX on 6/15/18 at 2779.42. Monitoring purposes GOLD: neutral Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Neutral The above chart measure the momentum in the advance decline line and helps to show when the market is getting stronger or weaker.  The bottom window is the NYSE Advance/NYSE Decline issues with a 4 period MA. Readings below 1.25 have been a bearish sign for the market.  Today this indicator closed at 1.05 and up from yesterday and shows market is getting stronger but still below 1.25.  Next Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Bumpiness Signals Weakness

by Tom McClellan

After bottoming on April 3, the DJIA’s Price Oscillator has been making a bumpy up move. That is important because bumpiness or smoothness of a move carries important information.  Our Price Oscillator is calculated using the same math as the McClellan A-D Oscillator, by finding a difference between two exponential moving averages (EMAs).  The difference for the Price Oscillator is that it uses closing prices rather than daily A-D differences.  See this link for details on the calculations. A bumpy Price Oscillator is a sign of weakness for Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Treasury-Bund Spread Just Gave Stocks New Life

by Tom McClellan

 Since the early 1990s, there has been a pretty good correlation between the movements of the DJIA and the spread between the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and the equivalent yield for German sovereign debt.  The German bonds are commonly referred to as “bunds”, shorthand for the German word “bundes”, meaning federal.  This Treasury-Bund spread also has the interesting property of giving us an early warning of major secular tops in the U.S. stock market.  When it rises up to a very high level, and then makes a divergent top relative to the DJIA, that is a warning sign Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Why Small Cap Stocks Are Doing Well And How You Can Participate

by Mary Ellen McGonagle

Despite the healthy move in some of these stocks already, there are several compelling reasons why these stocks deserve some attention. With the Russell 2000 hitting another new high today, small cap stocks continue to outdistance larger cap stocks. Year to date, these smaller names are now up over 10% vs the S&P 500’s return of 3.8%. There are several sound reasons why these Small Cap stocks are outpacing the broader markets as well as one very important main reason that points to a continued outperformance of these stocks going forward. Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle June 13, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral. Monitoring purposes GOLD: neutral Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Sold 6/7/18 at 2770.37=gain .76%;Long SPX 3/14/18 at 2749.48. We have updated this chart form yesterday. The 3 day, 10 day and 21 day moving average of the Equity Put/Call ratio are in bearish levels at the same time and increases the chance the market can stall in this price range.  In each case the market stalled (except the big run up in January).  This study suggests upside is limited.  There is evidence that a pull back could materialize near the 2700 level on Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Too Much Love for QQQ

by Tom McClellan

 The FANG stocks have been leading the market higher in 2018, and a lot of traders are choosing to tag along on that trade by buying into QQQ, the ETF which tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX).  As more traders buy into QQQ, the sponsoring firm (Powershares, part of Invesco) issues more shares in order to keep the share price as close as possible to the net asset value. This week’s chart shows how the number of QQQ shares outstanding varies over time.  Not surprisingly, it goes up and down in sympathy with price movements.  There is nothing like an uptrend to Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle June 7, 2018

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral. Monitoring purposes GOLD: neutral Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Long SPX 3/14/18 at 2749.48. We have updated this chart from yesterday. The middle window is the VXST/VIX (Short term VIX/Volatility index).  It has been a bearish short term sign when the VXST outperforms the VIX (rising ratio).  The SPY traded above its previous high and the VXST/VIX ratio made a higher low suggesting a short term pull back is possible.  Also this is the week before option expiration week which can produce whipsaws.  Next Wednesday (June 13) Read More