SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold 8/21/1/ at 2862.96= gain 1.05%; Long SPX 8/10/18 at 2833.28.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Sold long term SPX 7/16/18 at 2798.43= gain 2.95%; Long 6/29/18 at 2718.37.
The momentum for the 30 hourly moving average of the Tick and hourly Cumulative tick are still in up-trends and remain short term bullish for the SPX. However these tick indicators can turn on a dime but for now they remain short term bullish. On yesterday’s report we said, “The ticks give reason for the SPX to test its January high (SPX January 26 high at 2873 range).” and so it did. The January high is a resistance area and the market could back and fill short term and a tick divergence could show up on the retests. Sold long SPX gain 1.05%
The Equity Put/Call ratio (CPCE) closed yesterday at .55; CPCE closes of .55 and less have predicted the market will be lower in 3 to 5 day with an average loss of .8%, 88% of the time (going back 5 years). Today the SPX did hit above the January 26 high of 2872.87, hitting a high of 2873.23 and closed below the January high at 2862.96. Market momentum is still good and but market could stall in this area. There is an open gap on August 16 near 2830 range that could get tested sooner rather then later. We don’t have a sell setup right now and if market holds steady in the days to come we could turn back to bullish. We sold our long position for a 1.05% gain and will remain flat for now.
We posted this study yesterday and remains relevant, “The Gold Commercials came in at 7K short updated last Friday, the least short position going back to December 2015 with a short position back then at 3K short; both readings are bullish for gold. The chart above is the RSI for the Bullish Percent index for the Gold Miners index. We have marked the times when the RSI for the Gold Miners index fell below 5% which amounted to seven times going back to 2007. Of those seven times, one failed to mark a low and one when sideways for a number of weeks before a strong rally. The other five times the market rallied right out of the gate. According the 6 wins out of 7 times the market has an 87% chance of at least moving sideways if not going higher.”