Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle October 17, 2018

Tim Ord

Tim Ord


SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes; Covered short SPX on 10/10/18 at 2785.68= gain of 3.46%; Short long term on 10/5/18 at 2885.57.

Ideally, we would like to see a retest of last Thursday’s low and there is a possibility that may happen. For one, last Thursday’s low had high volume, which is usually tested at some point. Also, the 3-day TRIN did not reach levels associated with longer-term lows (especially the degree of the decline). Above, in the bottom window, is the Index put/call ratio. Readings near current levels have marked short-term highs or at least stalled the market. A pull back to test the recent low is possible and, from there, up into yearend. Covered our short SPX on 10/10/18 for a 3.46% gain.

Yesterday we said “an ideal setup for a buy signal would be for the SPY tests last Thursday’s low on at least 10% lighter volume and have the TRIN reach above 1.50 and the Ticks close below -300. Any combination close to that could lead to a buy signal. The bottom window is the 3 day average of the TRIN and reading above 1.40 have lead to decent bottoms. The higher the 3 day TRIN reading above 1.40 the greater the chances for a bottom.”  The “3 day TRIN” came close, but fell short of the 1.40 reading. Also notice that last Thursday’s volume was huge and most high volume lows are tested at some point. Today’s market gapped up, leaving an open gap which usually gets filled short-term. Today’s volume was relative light, suggesting upside is weak. A better buy setup may appear in the days to come and that setup could come on a test of last Thursday’s low near 270 on the SPY. Covered short SPX on 10/10/18 at 2785.68= gain of 3.46%; Short long term on 10/5/18 at 2885.57.

The Bottom window is the 18 moving average of the Advance/Decline. Readings >0 are bullish and below “0” bearish; today’s reading comes in at +3.52. The next window up is the 10 moving average of the Up Down volume - again, readings above “0” are bullish and below bearish - today’s reading came in at +1.54. These two indicators suggests the uptrend is intact. The pattern that appears to have formed is a Head and Shoulders bottom which has a measured target to 21.25 range. The Gold Commercials are now long 26K gold contracts, which is an unusual bullish position for them over the years and another bullish sign for gold. Long GDX at 18.72 on 8/17/18.

Tim Ord,
Editor

www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.