Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle March 19, 2019

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SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold long SPX on 3/13/19 at 2810.92= gain 2.47%; Long 3/8/19 at 2743.07.
Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.
Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes;  Long SPX on 10-19-18 at 2767.78.

The chart above is the VIX and the SPY. It can be a bearish sign for the SPY when both the SPY and VIX rally, and today marks the third day up for both. Today also marks the third day out of the last five days where the market ended up and the TICKs closed negative. A negative TICK close with the market higher will stunt the SPY rally in the short term. Therefore, the market could see a consolidation this week, but downside appears limited as there is support near the previous highs near the 280 SPY range. It is worth pointing out that large declines don’t usually begin with the VIX below +16 (today’s close 13.63). We don’t have it shown, but yesterday’s volume dropped around 20% compared to Friday’s volume, a bearish sign. In the short term, the market could stall here, but the intermediate-term trend appears up. Sold long SPX on 3/13/19 at 2810.92 = gain 2.47%.

Tomorrow is Fed day, which could have a short term effect on the market. The SPX did travel past the 2800 resistance level and may backtest the level is the coming days. The bottom window is the hour tick with a 50-period moving average. The red vertical lines show when the 50 hour tick fell below “0” and the blue vertical line shows when it closed above “0.” So far, the 50-hour tick remains above “0” and is still in bullish levels. The SPY could fall back to the 280 range and find support not far away. There is a 77% probability that the week after March expiration week would be down, but, as it looks now, it would not be down much. A better setup could be if this potential pullback produces panic in the TICK and TRIN, which would generate a bullish setup.

Above is the monthly GDX going back to late 2015. We have posted a “Volume by Price” indicator, which shows that the most volume occurred inside the 22.00 and 23.00 price range. Note that the GDX is eating through this price range now and, once through, it will become strong support. There are other things to notice on this monthly chart: the monthly RSI is greater than 50 and bullish, the moving averages of the 5, 9 and 11 had a bullish crossover in January and a longer-term bullish signal, and the 10-period moving average of the GDX/GLD ratio had a bullish crossover. Though the market is moving as fast as snails, the trend is up. Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.

Tim Ord,
Editor

www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.

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