Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle July 30, 2019

 | 

SPX Monitoring purposes: Sold long SPX on 7/22/19 at 2985.07= small gain; Long 7/17/19 at 2984.42.

Monitoring purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.96.

Long Term Trend SPX monitor purposes: Sold SPX 7/5/19 & 2990.41= gain 2.63%.

The top window is the 500-period moving average of the 1-minute TICK. Readings above “0” are bullish for the SPY short term. The bottom window is the 1-minute cumulative TICK. When it's rising (like now), that's usually a bullish sign. The TICK readings are showing minor positive signs for the short-term. Yesterday, we showed the 100-period moving average of the 5-minute TICK and the 5-minute cumulative TICK, which where bullish yesterday and remain bullish today. We're looking at the short-term timeframes to see what clues would pop up - so far, the TICKs remain short-term bullish even though a minor pullback has occurred. Tomorrow is what they call a “Super Black Moon,” which is a second full moon in a month (the first one is called a “New moon”) and the “Super” part is a new moon closest to earth. This event could add to market volatility. Staying flat for now.

The second window up from the bottom is the SPY/VIX ratio. In general, this ratio trends up and down with the SPY. A divergence shows up when this ratio is moving lower as the SPY is moving higher, which can produce declines in the SPY (circled in red). Right now, this ratio is moving lower as the SPY has pulled back and a short term bearish sign. However since early July the SPY has made higher highs as well as the SPY/VIX ratio, so there is no longer-term bearish sign (large blue arrows). We could see short-term volatility on the FOMC meeting announcement tomorrow, but we're not looking at anything likely significant either up or down.

Above is a short term view for GDX. The top window is the daily RSI for GDX; readings above 50 (current reading is 65.01) are bullish. On the daily GDX window, we have added a 5, 9, 11 period moving average, which generated a bullish crossover back in late May; it has since remained on that bullish crossover. The bottom window is the Bullish Percent Index for the Gold Miners index. The Bullish Percent Index measures the percent of stocks in that index that are on Point & Figure buy signal. Yesterday, the Bullish Percent index closed at 75% and today ‘s increased to 79.17%, showing that this index is getting stronger, another bullish sign. The next window up is the GDX/GLD ratio. In bull moves, this index rises as GDX outperforms GLD, and that is what occurring here. It appears the short-term trend is still up. The next upside resistance is the 2016 high near 31.00. Long GDX on 1/29/19 at 21.97.


Tim Ord,

Editor

www.ord-oracle.com. New Book release "The Secret Science of Price and Volume" by Timothy Ord, buy at www.Amazon.com.

Announcement from the Author

{{ announcement.content }}

Subscribe to Top Advisors Corner to be notified whenever a new post is added to this blog!
comments powered by Disqus