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Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle December 20, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold long 12/11/17 at 2659.99 = gain 1.17%;  Long SPX on 12-6-17 at 2629.27. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Covered short GDX 12/12/17 at 21.40=gain 5.14%; Short GDX on 11/13/17 at 22.56 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral.   Yesterday a bearish Candlestick pattern called a “Doji” formed and today a bearish “Bearish Engulfing” formed suggesting market has at least stalled.  Today’s test of yesterday’s up gap on lighter volume shows short term support.  The McClellan Oscillator is right at “0” and showing weakness.  There is another gap Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Confidence, and What Comes With It

by Tom McClellan

There is a strong positive feedback mechanism involving consumer sentiment and the economy.  As conditions get better, people get more confident, which causes them to spend more, so companies hire more, which makes people more confident….  That all works until it doesn’t, and then the positive feedback goes the other way, making people get less confident as they see the economy slowing, making them spend less money, which causes layoffs, which makes people less confident…. The University of Michigan’ Survey of Consumers Index of Consumer Sentiment hit Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle December 13, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold long 12/11/17 at 2659.99 = gain 1.17%;  Long SPX on 12-6-17 at 2629.27. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Covered short GDX 12/12/17 at 21.40=gain 5.14%; Short GDX on 11/13/17 at 22.56 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. This is option expiration week and option related indicators carry more weight during this time period.  The chart above goes back near three years and shows the times when the 10 day average of the Equity Put/Call ratio reached .58 or lower.  At best the market went sideways when this ratio reached .58 and at worst produced Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Conflicting Messages for Crude Oil

by Tom McClellan

I like it best when all of my indicators agree, but I don’t get to enjoy that condition very often.  This week, I have conflicting signs for the future of crude oil. The chart above shows gold’s leading indication for crude oil prices.  The offset is currently running at about 20 months; it has been as low as 11 months in past years.  The basic idea is that the movements of gold prices tend to get repeated in crude oil prices. I call this phenomenon “liquidity waves”.  Think of a wave that passes under the end of a pier.  That same Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle December 6, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Neutral Monitoring purposes GOLD: Short GDX on 11/13/17 at 22.56 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. Last Friday had a big jump in Volume suggesting “Selling Climax”.  Most “Selling Climax” lows are tested and if tested on lighter Volume would suggest support and could mark the next low.  This is the week before Option Expiration which whipsaws are common. Today the McClellan Oscillator closed below “0” suggesting the short term trend has turned down.  There is a cycle low due around December 13 (next Wednesday) plus or minus a day or so Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

David Keller: Big Tech and Big Round Numbers

by David Keller

I have always been entertained when stocks find support and resistance at big round numbers.  I’m not the only one to have noticed this phenomenon, as you can see from articles by stockcharts.com writers Arthur Hill and Greg Schnell.   Some have attributed this phenomenon to a behavioral bias called “round number bias” where people tend to gravitate to big round numbers such as 10, 100, and 1000 as anchors.  In fact, academic research has even recognized price clustering around round numbers. Why do big round numbers have such an influence on Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: QQQ Volume Gave Us a Tell

by Tom McClellan

The high volume seen in QQQ on a recent selloff was a signal that short term bearish sentiment had gotten overdone. The tech selloff on Nov. 29, 2017 was a peculiar one, as it was not echoed elsewhere in the market.  Instead, we saw the FANG and semiconductor stocks down hard, but the DJIA was actually up on the day.  And then the next day, all of the indices were up strongly, as if whatever was worrying tech investors on Nov. 29 was magically all over.  The high volume in QQQ was a sign of a concentrated moment of panic, which evidently washed itself out all at once Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle November 29, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold SPX on 11/17/17 at 2578.85 = gain of .55%; long 11/15/17 at 2564.62 Monitoring purposes GOLD: Short GDX on 11/13/17 at 22.56 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. The second window down form the top is the SPY and below that is the High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG).  HYG has a good short term history of producing a divergence near short term highs on the SPY.  Today the SPY surged to a new high and HYG made a lower high setting up a short term divergence along with the SPY closing outside of its upper Bollinger band and add to the divergences Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

David Keller: Blue Skies for Airlines

by David Keller

As part of my regular sector and industry review process, I like to use RRG charts to better understand sector and group rotation.   I was surprised to see the airlines group rotating from the Lagging to the Improving.  This means that although the group has been underperforming, the momentum is starting to increase. Let’s review a chart of the NYSE Arca Airline Index ($XAL) to see how that relates to the move on the RRG chart.  Then we can dig deeper into some of the airline charts to understand the rotation in more detail. Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Mary Ellen McGonagle: How To Play The Hot IPO Market - One Sound Approach Can Get You In Front Of The Big Winners.

by Mary Ellen McGonagle

While the number of IPO’s listed in the U.S. continues to dwindle, there have been enough big winners in these newer issues to make it worth your while to check out these stocks.  After all, the powerhouse FANG stocks of today all started out as new issues. To be fair, investing in new issues is not for the faint of heart as these generally smaller companies can be quite volatile. Most new IPO’s can bounce around for quite some time while growing but once investors see a promising trajectory of solid earnings and sales, shares can be bid up swiftly.  Read More 

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