Top Advisors Corner

Mary Ellen McGonagle: Market Apprehension Trumps Inauguration But There Are Bright Spots Out There.

The markets have been trading mostly sideways over the last six weeks as investor’s initial election-induced exuberance has given way to apprehension about what a Trump election will really mean for the economy.  Let’s use a recent post-election surprise rally and then sell-off as a guide for what to look for when a sideways move turns negative.

Below is a chart of the S&P 500 which is currently exhibiting trading action that has a strong resemblance to the sideways move that followed the surprise Brexit vote rally.  As you can see, the sideways move then resulted in a breakdown that we can use as a guide for what to be on alert for now.

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Tom McClellan: Stock Market Still Following Path of 4 Years Ago

 Investors have been cheering the election of Donald Trump as the 45th U.S. president, thinking that he is going to bring a beneficial change for business, the economy, and investments.  But thus far, what he has brought since the election is just a carbon copy of what happened exactly 4 years before. 

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Alan Newman: Crosscurrents January 9, 2017

Rationales & Targets

We were reminded a few days ago by our friend and savvy trader, Grant Nobel, that the Russell 2000 Index was about as overvalued as one might imagine, trading at infinity times earnings.  It’s bad enough to see the broad S&P 500 at a P/E over 26 and the Dow Industrials at a 21.4 P/E, but a 2000 stock index that shows negative earnings?!  Good grief.  One would think an index of 2000 small caps just generate something, anything in earnings.  Even a year ago, the Russell 2000 were trading over 152 times earnings.  Despite the obvious, that a few rotten apples have likely sabotaged the tally, it’s just another example of the lack of value in U.S. stocks.  There’s more, too.  The S&P Industrials are nearly 30 times earnings and those earnings have fallen 12.6% in the past year.  S&P 500 earnings have declined 8.4%.  And the earnings for the 30 venerable stocks in the Dow Industrials have shed 13.2%.  And a mania is underway.  We certainly live in interesting times.

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David O. England: Ask the Professor-Dow 20,000 and Predictions for 2017, plus more...

Q. Professor, how important is the DOW hitting 20,000?

A. First, I do not want to minimize the DOW Industrials run to 20,000.  I like the increased value of parts of my portfolios but realize I have not made one penny unless I sell and close the trade.  

With all the media cheerleading, I would be surprised if the DOW does not hit 20,000 by the second week of January, if not before.  Keep in mind; the DOW Industrials have thirty stocks and in no way represent the strength or weakness of the entire US stock market.

To hear a recent interview where I discuss the DOW 20,000 and my 2017 predictions, click here.

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