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Top Advisors Corner

David Keller: Extended Uptrends in Asia

by David Keller

As US stocks have continued their relentless bull run, some of largest Asian equity markets have also continued to new highs.  Equities in Japan, China and India have broken not just on a price basis, but on a relative basis as well. Here is a chart of the S&P 500 SPDR ETF, along with the iShares MSCI ETFs for Japan, China and India. Notice that the S&P 500’s recent uptrend is at the bottom of the performance list, up just over 17% year-to-date.  Japan and India follow with YTD returns of 22% and 34%, respectively.  With its most recent break to new Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Mary Ellen McGonagle:HOW MUCH HIGHER WILL THE MARKETS GO?

by Mary Ellen McGonagle

There haven’t been this many bulls around since the running at Pamplona in Spain over the summer.  With over 63% of investors thinking that the markets are going higher and a mere 14% in the bear camp, (per Investors Intelligence Sentiment survey) we haven’t seen a sentiment spread of this magnitude since right before the ’87 crash. This bullish euphoria is during a period when stock prices are seemingly hitting a new high every day.  Last Friday, the Nasdaq posted its 61st record close for the year which matches the number that was reached for this Index during the dot-com Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle November 1, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Sold 10/25/17 at 2557.15=breakeven; long SPX 10/16/17 at 2557.64. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Covered short GDX at 23.23 on 10/20/17 =gain 2.56%; Short GDX on 10/13/17 at 23.84. Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. Today the TRIN closed at 1.33; readings above 1.20 usually produce an up day the next day.  There was a relative high volume day on Friday and if market does rally at test Friday’s high on lighter volume would suggests that high as resistance. A high volume low formed on 10/25/17 and most high volume lows are tested and if tested on lighter Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Bond McClellan Oscillator Almost Oversold

by Tom McClellan

October 27, 2017   When we talk about “the McClellan Oscillator”, we usually mean the indicator calculated on the Advance-Decline (A-D) numbers from the NYSE.  But a McClellan Oscillator can be calculated on any sort of breadth data. And when the same math is used on closing prices, we call that a McClellan Price Oscillator. The chart this week shows a McClellan Oscillator calculated on investment grade corporate bond A-D data.  Those data are published each day by FINRA, and they correlate very closely with the movements of Treasury bond prices Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle October 25, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; long SPX 10/16/17 at 2557.64. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Covered short GDX at 23.23 on 10/20/17 =gain 2.56%; Short GDX on 10/13/17 at 23.84. Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. Yesterday the Tick closed at -347 and the TRIN at 1.56 which is a bullish combination.  The last time the market was near a high and the Tick and Trin closed near the current levels came on April 27, 2017 and the market staggered higher for another three weeks.  It common for the market to produce high or lows around holiday’s and the next holiday is Thanksgiving November 23 Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: AAPL Not Confirming Market's Higher Highs

by Tom McClellan

The share price of Apple Corp (Nasdaq: AAPL) is not making higher highs along with the Nasdaq 100 Index, and historically that has indicated a problem for the overall market.  AAPL is the largest component of the Nasdaq 100, and accounts for 12% of the index’s calculation based on the modified capitalization weighting of that index.  So it is natural that there is going to be a strong correlation in the price plots.  When the two are doing the same thing, that is what’s expected, and so it is not newsworthy.  It is when there is a difference in their behavior that we Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

David Keller: Discovering Downtrends

by David Keller

As part of my regular screen for stocks that are oversold, I came across Discovery Communications, LLC (DISCA).  This chart reminds me that it is incredibly unwise to follow RSI as a standalone indicator. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 index by over 37% since the beginning of the year.  DISCA was up slightly through the end of April, then began a steady downtrend since May with a series of lower lows and lower highs. During this recent downtrend, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has become oversold a number of times, each of which has led Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle October 18, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; long SPX 10/16/17 at 2557.64. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Short GDX on 10/13/17 at 23.84. Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral. The Total put call ratio (CPC) closed yesterday at 1.17.  Total put call ratio (CPC) closing at 1.20 and higher predict market will be higher 92% of the time in the next five days with an average gain of 1.8%. On the chart above we market with red vertical lines the times the CPC closed at 1.20 and higher.  The blue vertical lines show the failures.  True that CPC didn’t close above 1.20 yesterday but 1.17 does lean Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tom McClellan: Treasury-Bund Spread Says Dollar Has More Room to Fall

by Tom McClellan

 In Dec. 2016, the monthly closing spread between yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury Notes and the equivalent debt instrument from Germany was 2.24 percentage points, the highest reading we have seen since the 1980s.  As the spread has started to contract, we have watched the US Dollar Index make its biggest drop since 2011.  Those German bonds are known as “bunds”, which is short for bundes which means “federal” in German, as in the Bundesrepublik Deutschland.  This week’s chart shows that the Treasury-Bund spread is well correlated to the movements of the Dollar Read More 

Top Advisors Corner

Tim Ord: The Ord Oracle October 11, 2017

by Tim Ord

SPX Monitoring purposes; Short SPX on 8/30/17 at 2457.59. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Sold 10/10/17 GDX at 23.57= gain 2.34%; Long GDX on 10/2/17 at 23.05 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Neutral.   In general the VIX trades opposite the SPY and when there is a divergence between the two a direction change in the SPY is possible.  Today the SPY hit a new short term high and to keep the “Rhyme” of the market going, VIX should have hit a new short term low. Instead the VIX made a higher low and produced a divergence, which is a similar divergence that appeared at the August high Read More 

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