Trading Places with Tom Bowley

Fed Hikes Rates, But No New Hike Expectations Revealed

Market Recap for Wednesday, March 15, 2017

The Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting has come and gone.  As expected, the FOMC announcement at 2pm EST indicated that rates would be hiked another quarter point.  But the real question was whether the Fed would turn more hawkish on future hikes.  They did not.  They maintained their cautiously optimistic view of the economy in 2017 and stuck with their previous forecast of three rate hikes in 2017.  That simply wasn't enough to trigger a breakout in the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) as the current yield range from 2.30%-2.62% was maintained as you can see below:

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Technology Showing Signs Of Slowing Momentum

Special Webinar Announcement

Please join me at noon EST for my Bowley Briefing webinar.  It'll be a special one hour format and I'll be joined by Erin Heim.  Many of you may know Erin from all of her Decision Point work here at StockCharts.com.  We'll have a lively discussion of key market topics and trends just moments before Fed Chair Janet Yellen provides the latest announcement from the FOMC.  You can CLICK HERE to register for today's FREE webinar.

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Footwear Is Strengthening; Here's My Choice In The Space

Market Recap for Monday, March 13, 2017

There really was very little movement in our major indices or in our sectors on Monday - which for Monday isn't really a bad day.  But my guess is that traders are a bit cautious ahead of what many perceive will be another rate hike on Wednesday.  I believe the hike is a foregone conclusion, so I'll be paying more attention to what Fed Chair Yellen has to say about the Fed's thoughts about the balance of 2017.  It's a guess on my part, but look for the Fed to keep its hawkish tone.

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Failure Of Treasury Yields Slow Financial Stocks

Market Recap for Friday, March 10, 2017

U.S. equities posted mostly strong results on Friday with a bit of relative strength from the more aggressive NASDAQ and Russell 2000.  The NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) posted the best percentage gain of all, but keep in mind that the NDX does not include financial stocks and that area suffered from the 10 year treasury yield's ($TNX) inability to break above key yield resistance at 2.62%.  Take a look at the TNX:

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Weakening Aluminum, Steel And Gold Pressure Materials Stocks

Market Recap for Thursday, March 9, 2017

The March 6th to 9th period once again produced not-so-good S&P 500 results.  The S&P 500 did break its recent string of losses, gaining two points on Thursday.  Technically, it bounced exactly where we would expect - off the rising 20 day EMA.  Take a look at the following chart:

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Record Crude Inventories Sink Oil, S&P 500

Market Recap for Wednesday, March 8, 2017

The S&P 500 fell for a third consecutive day and it could have been five days in a row if not for a very small gain last Friday.  The culprit yesterday was quite clearly the oil patch.  The U.S. crude oil inventory surged higher by 8.2 million barrels to an all-time record high of 528.4 million barrels.  It was a shock as expectations called for just a 2 million barrel rise.  That much higher build in inventory sent oil prices crashing lower to just above the $50 per barrel level, easily its lowest close in 2017.  Here's the chart:

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Treasury Yield Shows Building Expectations For Next Rate Hike

Market Recap for Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Next Tuesday, another FOMC meeting begins with their policy decision announced next Wednesday.  Expectations are that we'll see another quarter point rate hike.  It's not a slam dunk and there are some who believe we should wait to see more economic strength before raising rates again.  I expect that the Fed will want to remain ahead of the curve so I'm looking for that next hike.  The treasury market agrees with me.  After consolidating its last rise, the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) is again on the move higher.  Here's a long-term chart:

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Webinar Reminder 4:30pm EST Today

I just wanted to send out a quick reminder about a webinar that I'll be conducting with EarningsBeats.com President and CEO John Hopkins.  It starts in roughly an hour with the webinar doors opening as the stock market closes.  I will be discussing trading strategies during earnings season and I'll provide a brief analysis of current market conditions.

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Evaluating The Technical Health Of Energy And Healthcare

Market Recap for Monday, March 6, 2017

U.S. equities experienced a little profit taking on Monday, nothing technically damaging, but all our major indices did finish lower.  The only sector to escape damage was energy (XLE, +0.22%), while all the others declined.  On a relative basis, the XLE neared a major support level and now is attempting to change relative directions and perhaps lead the benchmark S&P 500 for a bit.  Below is the XLE:$SPX relative ratio:

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Sticking With Global Theme, China Stocks Look Bullish

Market Recap for Friday, March 3, 2017

We saw bifurcated action on Friday with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and NASDAQ all posting minor gains while the Russell 2000 fell slightly.  Sector action behaved similarly as about half the sectors climbed fractionally while the rest finished in negative territory.  Healthcare (XLV) continued its torrid winning streak and was one of Friday's best performers.  Here's the latest look at the chart:

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