Wyckoff Power ChartingStockCharts.comExpert market commentary from StockCharts.comtag:stockcharts.com,2019-04-18:blog-372024-02-18T22:59:23ZPower Charting TV: What Lies Ahead? Will Early 2024 Strength Continue?Bruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2024-02-18:post-272352024-02-18T22:59:23Z2024-02-18T22:59:23Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/02/18/e632fc78-2242-43aa-b913-f023731b4402.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 399px;">A Buying Climax typically concludes a long term uptrend. The rally phase from the October low of 2023 has these climactic characteristics. This advance comes after a major trend that began in late 2022. The steady upward march in the 4th quarter of 2023 was broad and powerful, which created much enthusiasm among the public. Magnificent-7 growth stocks set the pace and also dominated the performance of the major stock indexes. Breadth stopped rising as 2024 began as many stocks stopped advancing with the ‘Mag-7' which have mostly Marched Alone in January and February of the new year. Does this narrowing of breadth and concentration into the ‘Mag-7' stocks represent a warning of a trend reversal?</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Swing trading Point & Figure studies are signaling the completion of upside price objectives. Could this indicate the fuel tank propelling higher prices is nearly empty? If so, what could the fate of the stock indexes be in 2024, and beyond? In the latest episode of Power Charting, we look at the PnF count objectives, and the waning breadth characteristics with these questions in mind. Also, the Decennial Seasonal Patterns are consulted for the possible trend of prices as 2024 unfolds, and beyond. </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p><span class="image-caption"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/02/18/308b5b8c-e8e0-494c-ad5b-4fa70234aa0e.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Wyckoff studies of the initial three years of this decade lend a perspective to the Decennial View. We take a look. </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">All the Best,</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Bruce</p><p>@rdwyckoff</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/Mipt7PFgIUs" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p style="margin: 0in;"><span class="image-caption">Power Charting TV</span></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Links Referenced:</p><p style="margin: 0in;" target="_blank"><a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/" target="_blank">Wyckoff Analytics</a></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-method/" target="_blank">Richard D. Wyckoff, His Method and Story</a></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p><br></p>A Buying Climax typically concludes a long term uptrend. The rally phase from the October low of 2023 has these climactic characteristics. This advance comes after a major trend that began in late 2022. The steady upward march in the 4th quarter of 2023 was broad and powerful, which created much enthusiasm among the public. Magnificent-7 growth stocks set the pace and also dominated the performance of the major stock indexes. Breadth stopped rising as 2024 began as many stocks stopped advancing with the ‘Mag-7' which have mostly Marched Alone in January and February of the new year...Tape Reading for DistributionBruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2024-02-06:post-271712024-02-06T18:32:31Z2024-02-06T18:32:31Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/02/06/486cf323-792b-48e6-bef6-7ac60b3e2573.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 200px;">Recent Power Charting episodes have been devoted to the classic technique of chart reading innovated by Richard D. Wyckoff. He referred to the method as ‘Tape Reading' while it is actually the technique of reading charts, bar by bar to assess the likely future direction of an index, stock, bond or futures contract. This price and volume chart reading method is as powerful and relevant as it was a century ago when Mr. Wyckoff was successfully employing it. Using the Case Study approach we utilized at Golden Gate University (GGU), the recent episodes of Power Charting have largely focused on this type of analysis. </p><p>The current Power Charting (link below) has a Distribution case study of United Parcel Service (UPS). Mr. Wyckoff integrated Vertical Bar Chart analysis with Point and Figure studies therefore we do the same in this case. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2024/02/06/709406de-6b73-4344-b0bf-79e20a9df057.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto; width: 75%;"></p><p>The Wyckoff Community have enthusiastically embraced these studies and have asked for more of them. I am all for it. Chart reading is about the most fun a Wyckoffian can have! This bar by bar analysis of price and volume is a meticulous process that once understood can reap huge rewards. It is a mastery skill. Wyckoffians will study and markup thousands upon thousands of charts, finding their mastery path continuing to ever higher levels. My mission, in these cases, is to support you on your personal market mastery journey. </p><p>All the Best,</p><p>Bruce</p><p>@rdwyckoff</p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p><p><br></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/uUxNeqZPAQI" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">Power Charting Video: Tape Reading for Distribution</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;" target="_blank"><strong>Video Index</strong></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUxNeqZPAQI&list=PLyNJu-3PikrS22Ti9lUWcq7Jj2RyDctZC&index=1&t=0s" target="_blank">00:00</a><span target="_blank"> Intro</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUxNeqZPAQI&list=PLyNJu-3PikrS22Ti9lUWcq7Jj2RyDctZC&index=1&t=123s" target="_blank">02:03</a><span target="_blank"> New StockCharts Index Members Page </span></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUxNeqZPAQI&list=PLyNJu-3PikrS22Ti9lUWcq7Jj2RyDctZC&index=1&t=643s" target="_blank">10:43</a><span target="_blank"> Pruden Model - Distribution Definitions </span></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUxNeqZPAQI&list=PLyNJu-3PikrS22Ti9lUWcq7Jj2RyDctZC&index=1&t=690s" target="_blank">11:30</a><span target="_blank"> Wyckoff Rules</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUxNeqZPAQI&list=PLyNJu-3PikrS22Ti9lUWcq7Jj2RyDctZC&index=1&t=703s" target="_blank">11:43</a><span target="_blank"> Long Term Weekly Chart (UPS) </span></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUxNeqZPAQI&list=PLyNJu-3PikrS22Ti9lUWcq7Jj2RyDctZC&index=1&t=840s" target="_blank">14:00</a><span target="_blank"> Point & Figure Big Picture (UPS)</span></p><p style="margin: 0px;"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUxNeqZPAQI&list=PLyNJu-3PikrS22Ti9lUWcq7Jj2RyDctZC&index=1&t=918s" target="_blank">15:18</a><span target="_blank"> Tape Reading Action (UPS)</span></p><p><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUxNeqZPAQI&list=PLyNJu-3PikrS22Ti9lUWcq7Jj2RyDctZC&index=1&t=1314s" target="_blank">21:54</a><span target="_blank"> Point & Figure (UPS)</span></p><p target="_blank"><strong>Reference to Wyckoff Distribution definitions:</strong> <a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/09/distribution-definitions.html" target="_blank"><strong>CLICK HERE</strong></a></p><p><br></p><p><br></p>Recent Power Charting episodes have been devoted to the classic technique of chart reading innovated by Richard D. Wyckoff. He referred to the method as ‘Tape Reading' while it is actually the technique of reading charts, bar by bar to assess the likely future direction of an index, stock, bond or futures contract. This price and volume chart reading method is as powerful and relevant as it was a century ago when Mr. Wyckoff was successfully employing it. Using the Case Study approach we utilized at Golden Gate University (GGU), the recent episodes of Power Charting have largely focused on...Bonds Got Clipped. Now What?Bruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2023-11-05:post-266772023-11-05T23:04:57Z2023-11-05T23:04:57Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/11/05/4fc7b9a4-342b-4fda-a7ce-c89dc3122058.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 250px;">Last week's sharp upward reversal in the bond market followed the FOMC Interest Rate decision. A decision to not change the Fed Funds Interest Rate target. Unlike the prior meeting ‘non-action', this decision inspired robust bond and stock buying by the investment community. The downward stride of bond prices this year has been punishing to bond portfolio valuations. The regional bank crisis in the spring of this year dramatically illustrated the problem. Bond prices calmed into the beginning of summer, but trouble heated up again with the start of a new downward leg of the bond bear market. Was there a warning that a new downtrend was starting, and how far down could bond prices fall?</p><p>For this trend study we turn to the iShares U.S. Treasury Bond 7-10 Year ETF (IEF). Treasuries rallied following the trouble in the banking sector in March. Essentially in the 2nd Quarter of '23 a new wave of Distribution formed preparing the way for a future downward trend for bond prices. In the month of June Distribution was nearly complete as demonstrated by a very flat price structure below key Support, with no ability for price to lift. Wyckoffians call this ICE when it develops following Distribution. The Supply Trendline established the likely pace of the emerging downward stride. Once a downtrend kicks off it must be respected for the force of nature it is. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/11/05/1117e09f-e647-462b-a099-bad1538bd531.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IEF&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p88084164265&a=1529786601')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">iShares U.S. Treasury Bond 7-10 Year ETF (IEF)</span></p><h4>Chart Notes:</h4><ul><li>Following the Regional Banking trouble bonds try to rally. Re-Distribution Follows</li><li>UTAD & SoW decline is a warning of the presence of large supply</li><li>LPSY & ICE indicate very weak demand, a sign of the downward stride </li><li>PnF studies can now estimate the extent of the price potential</li><li>Exhaustion of the trend is signaled by ThrowUnder with accompanied Climactic volume</li><li>Confirmation of the Selling Climax is the high volume jump out of the downward channel</li></ul><p><br></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/11/05/deb3ddfe-2744-485c-b959-1b63e430ad84.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">iShares U.S. Treasury Bond 7-10 Year ETF (IEF)</span></p><h4>PnF Chart Notes:</h4><ul><li>Distribution has well defined symmetry. Two tests of $99. PSY = LPSY at $97</li><li>ICE has formed at $96 under prior Support</li><li>Decline following UTAD pierces support on expanding volume. ICE follows</li><li>Attempt to rally fails at new resistance. PSY=LPSY here. Take PnF count from here</li><li>Distribution target zone is estimated as $88 / $90</li><li>Confirmation of this target is ThrowUnder on massive spike of Volume </li><li>Climactic volume on widening price spread stops the decline</li><li>Watch for evidence of either an emerging Accumulation or Re-Distribution </li></ul><p>At this time a range-bound condition is likely underway. The sharp sudden rally has good demand and short covering characteristics. Stock investors were bullishly inspired by the ripping reversal. The deep pessimism into recent lows for stocks and bonds is indicative of investors being positioned with high cash levels and short exposure. Fuel for a rally that appears to have kicked-off this past week.</p><p> All the Best,</p><p>Bruce</p><p>@rdwyckoff</p><p><strong>Reference to Wyckoff Distribution definitions:</strong> <a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/09/distribution-definitions.html" target="_blank">CLICK HERE </a></p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p><p> <strong>Announcement</strong></p><p>Join Roman Bogomazov and me each week on the Wyckoff Market Discussions where we take a deep dive into key markets from a Wyckoffian perspective. Stocks, bonds, commodities and cryptos are among the financial markets profiled. <a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-market-discussion/" target="_blank">CLICK HERE</a> to watch a recent episode and learn more. </p><p> </p><h4>Power Charting TV:</h4><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/b0LTtfQUsG0?start=3" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">Power Charting Episode for November 3, 2023: Is the Correction Over for Stocks? </span></p><p> </p>Last week's sharp upward reversal in the bond market followed the FOMC Interest Rate decision. A decision to not change the Fed Funds Interest Rate target. Unlike the prior meeting ‘non-action', this decision inspired robust bond and stock buying by the investment community. The downward stride of bond prices this year has been punishing to bond portfolio valuations. The regional bank crisis in the spring of this year dramatically illustrated the problem. Bond prices calmed into the beginning of summer, but trouble heated up again with the start of a new downward leg of the bond bear...Percent Scale PnF Technique. Nvidia Case Study.Bruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2023-09-10:post-263512023-09-10T19:09:29Z2023-09-10T19:09:29Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/10/8dd5b362-5c77-447f-b9ab-8ce3bc76acb0.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 342px;"> A project that I have been working on in recent years is Horizontal PnF Counting using Percent Scaling. The method has generated promising results. Here we look at two case studies that illustrate the techniques value. Using the ‘Percentage Chart Scaling' Method in StockCharts.com Point & Figure charting platform produces a Log Scale PnF chart. The percent scale defaults to 1% but can be adjusted manually. The case study charts in this blog are 3% scale PnF Charts. It takes a 3% change in price to move to the next vertical grid column.</p><p>This method is useful for estimating the price objective potential of a dynamically growing financial instrument. The traditional rules for counting horizontal (range-bound) structures also applies to the log-scale method. </p><p>The first case study is the bull market run in the S&P 500 Index from 2010 to the Bull Market peak in 2021. Each of the Re-Accumulation pauses are counted and flagged for their price projection estimates. These Re-Accumulations can take a year or more to unfold and build a Cause for the next upward ascent. The counts are remarkably accurate and useful. Please take time to study each of them.</p><p>This charting method has been made possible by the introduction of computerization. This technique is a compounding function rather than a simple horizontal counting method used in traditional fixed scale PnF charting methodology. Therefore, each horizontal column in the range-bound structure represents a compounding event. An example of a 10 column wide range-bound price structure represents 10 periods of say 3% growth in the subsequent upward trend. Thus 10 periods of growth at 3% results in a compounded appreciation of 33.1% which would be the price target for the advance. </p><p>The benefit of this PnF method is the capability of estimating the compounded growth of a dynamically advancing investment. As is the case with traditional PnF Method the time duration of the move remains an unknown. It is best to employ log-scale for dramatically rising and volatile instruments. For smaller ‘Swing Trading' structures arithmetic scaling is most effective. Fellow Wyckoffian Alessio Rutigliano has used log scaling PnF very effectively in the analysis of the Crypto Markets. Alessio's analytical work on Crypto Markets can be seen and studied at <a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-in-the-world-of-cryptocurrency/page/14/" target="_blank">WyckoffAnalytics.com</a>. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/10/56d31a10-7d20-42e1-82dc-c8444254cfa7.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><span class="image-caption">S&P 500 Index ($SPX) Point & Figure Case Study. 3% Scaling, 1-Box Reversal Method.</span></p><p>This log-scale horizontal PnF study of the S&P 500 Index spans more than a decade. The bull run from 2010 to 2021 had four well defined ‘Re-Accumulation' periods. Each of these structures identified price targets that were eventually achieved. The final upward leg of the Bull Market was dramatic in its persistency and was preceded by a long and volatile trading range. The horizontal PnF count was exceeded by only one box and was the conclusion of the bull market. The log scale of this chart study was in 3% increments, which is very aggressive scaling, and illustrates what a virile bull market this decade long period was. Consider that each upward chart entry (entered as an ‘X' on the chart) was a 3% increase. </p><p>The final upward surge into the Bull Market peak was capped by an acceleration of the index into a Buying Climax. A throwover of the trend channel combined with a fulfillment of the PnF count objective sealed the fate of this aging, historic Bull Market run.</p><p><span class="image-caption"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/09/10/ccefaea9-91b4-477a-9b4f-73f82bae0392.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></span></p><p><span class="image-caption">NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) Point & Figure Case Study. 3% Scaling, 1-Box Reversal Method.</span></p><p>NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) has become one of the "Magnificent 7'. The rally in 2022 and '23 was preceded by a period of Accumulation. Across the Accumulation 39 columns were counted. One-Box reversal method is used. Thus 39 periods of 3% appreciation are estimated. From the low of the count area and from the count line two price objectives are generated and flagged. The price objectives are 350.25 to 457.00. Recently NVDA surged past the higher target zone. In a final upward run (usually considered climactic) the upper objective can be exceeded. If, in short order, the stock price reverses and falls below the higher objective back into the target zone we will consider the PnF count to be active and still valid. NVDA has shortening upward thrusts in the area of the $457.00 price objective. As of Friday, September 8th NVDA was back below the upper price objective, closing the week at $455.72. Sudden weakness to a support area would be further evidence that, at best, a new range-bound price structure is beginning. Which could become a fresh new Re-Accumulation or Distribution. Only time will tell, and we will watch closely.</p><p>Notes on Log Scale PnF Method</p><p>1. Initially default to 1% Scaling. Then try 2% Scaling. </p><p>2. Count Accumulation and Re-Accumulation structures as you would with arithmetic scale charts.</p><p>3. Default to 1-box reversal charts. Avoid counting 3-box charts.</p><p>4. Primarily use log-scale method for dynamically growing financial assets. Use arithmetic scale otherwise.</p><p>5. Count very conservatively. Big counts will generate very big price objectives using log-scale.</p><p>6. Use a financial calculator or Excel to calculate compounded growth for the price objectives.</p><p>7. For Distribution and Re-Distribution default to arithmetic scale PnF charts to estimate price targets. Log scale will typically result in over-counting of downside objectives.</p><p>8. Lots of practice will help you discern when arithmetic scale or log-scale is the best method.</p><p><br></p><p>All the Best,</p><p>Bruce </p><p> @rdwyckoff</p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p><p><br></p><h4>Announcement:</h4><p><strong>TSAA-SF Annual Conference</strong></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong>In-person in San Francisco. Livestreaming for dues paying members.</strong></p><p style="margin: 0in;"> </p><p style="margin: 0in;">The <a href="https://www.tsaasf.org/" target="_blank">TSAA-SF</a> will be hosting our 2023 annual conference, in partnership with <a href="https://www.aapta.com/" target="_blank">AAPTA</a><span target="_blank">, at Golden Gate University on Sep 16, 2023. </span></p><p style="margin: 0in;"> </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong>Speakers include</strong>: </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong>Linda Raschke</strong> - Auction Theory versus the Theory of Reflexivity</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong>Brett Villaume</strong> - Understanding Relative Strength</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong>Bruce Fraser</strong> - Swing Trading Technique Using the Wyckoff Method</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong>Ali Merchant</strong> - Power of trend lines and market outlook using major indices</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong>Bob Schott</strong> - Technical Analysis for the Buy Side</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong>Eoin Treacy</strong> - Waiting for Godot</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong>Damon Pavlatos</strong> - Anticipating Market Action using Market Profile, Volume Analytics Strategies along with traditional charting analysis.</p><p style="margin: 0in;"> </p><p style="margin: 0in;"> </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong>Cost</strong>: TSAA-SF members in-person: $150 (breakfast and lunch included), non-members: $400. Free livestreaming for TSAA-SF members. Join the TSAA-SF now for only $75/year.</p><p style="margin: 0in;"> </p><p style="margin: 0in;">For more information on the speakers and their topics and to register (<a href="https://www.tsaasf.org/event-5391152" target="_blank">Click Here</a>):</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><a href="https://www.tsaasf.org/event-5391152" target="_blank">https://www.tsaasf.org/event-5391152</a></p><p style="margin: 0in;"> </p><h4 style="margin: 0in;"> Power Charting TV:</h4><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/oGZDVNsMB10" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p style="margin: 0in;"><span class="image-caption">Wyckoff Case Study: A Period of Distribution Featuring Nvidia! First of Three Parts. Special Guest: Roman Bogomazov</span></p><p>Description:</p><p>Master Wyckoffian Roman Bogomazov joins Bruce Fraser for an in-depth historical chart case study of Nvidia common stock. This is the first installment of a three-part Power Charting series devoted to analyzing Nvidia common stock. Each of the three episodes is evaluated using the Wyckoff Chart Reading Method in chronological order. This episode evaluates a period of Distribution. In conducting these case studies, the objective is to illustrate and develop in the viewer an appreciation of the nuance the Wyckoff Method offers in the understanding of the present position and likely future direction of a stock or index, using chart analysis, for the intention of more effectively campaigning that instrument at the best possible time.</p><p><br></p>A project that I have been working on in recent years is Horizontal PnF Counting using Percent Scaling. The method has generated promising results. Here we look at two case studies that illustrate the techniques value. Using the ‘Percentage Chart Scaling' Method in StockCharts.com Point & Figure charting platform produces a Log Scale PnF chart. The percent scale defaults to 1% but can be adjusted manually. The case study charts in this blog are 3% scale PnF Charts. It takes a 3% change in price to move to the next vertical grid column.This method is useful for estimating the price...Power Charting TV: Stock Selection with the Wyckoff Market ReportBruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2023-08-05:post-261532023-08-05T16:58:48Z2023-08-05T16:58:48Z<p>Being able to efficiently drill down from Sector to Industry Group to best Stock ideas is critical to an effective methodology. John Colucci guest hosts this episode of Power Charting to illustrate such a method and the scanning principles developed for the ‘Wyckoff Market Report'. Johni Scan (editor) does a tour of the Wyckoff Market Report (WMR) by drilling down into some compelling stock ideas that were revealed by the WMR scanning techniques. To learn more about the Wyckoff Market Report (<a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/the-wyckoff-market-report/" target="_blank">click here</a>).</p><p><a href="https://youtu.be/isgTcOuKnHU" target="_blank">Click on this link</a> to watch: Stock Selection with the Wyckoff Market Report</p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/isgTcOuKnHU" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">Power Charting TV</span></p><h4><strong>Announcement: Technical Analysis Program at Golden Gate University, Webinar</strong></h4><p>Golden Gate University is excited to announce the re-launch of the historic graduate program in Technical Analysis. Graduates of the program will receive an MS in Finance with a concentration in Technical Analysis. On August 11th a FREE 30 minute webinar will announce this new program, describe the first class and review the history of this storied graduate program. Dr. Anitha Manohar, Associate Professor of Finance, Brett Villaume, CMT, CAIA Adjunct Professor and Bruce Fraser Adjunct Professor will present. To learn more and to register for this FREE event (<a href="https://forms.office.com/pages/responsepage.aspx?id=QaSI87tw-EqByzQJJudaa2iqFn0_ICdBq1vK6d8OlghUOURDS0ZMMVlWM1FGVjc0TTJGUzI2OElOVS4u" target="_blank">click here</a>).</p><p>Topic: MS Finance Degree Program with a concentration in Technical Analysis at Golden Gate University.</p><p>When: August 11, 2023, 12pm PDT</p><p>Webinar Link: To attend without registration simply click this link at the start of this event (<a href=" https://ggu.zoom.us/j/94689608537" target="_blank">CLICK HERE</a>).</p><p>All the Best,</p><p>Bruce </p><p>@rdwyckoff</p>Being able to efficiently drill down from Sector to Industry Group to best Stock ideas is critical to an effective methodology. John Colucci guest hosts this episode of Power Charting to illustrate such a method and the scanning principles developed for the ‘Wyckoff Market Report'. Johni Scan (editor) does a tour of the Wyckoff Market Report (WMR) by drilling down into some compelling stock ideas that were revealed by the WMR scanning techniques. To learn more about the Wyckoff Market Report (click here).Click on this link to watch: Stock Selection with the Wyckoff Market ReportPower...Crude Oil Reaches an Interesting JunctureBruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2023-04-10:post-254932023-04-10T17:19:43Z2023-04-10T17:19:43Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/04/10/bacf8fc0-ea4c-4bc7-9e35-3c2b93200a4f.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;">Wyckoff analysis of this essential commodity is currently revealing. The trend of Crude Oil has a major influence on not only most sectors of the stock market, but it is also a key cost input for the production of almost all goods, services, and other commodities. Since March of 2022, the general trend of Crude Oil has been downward, which has diminished inflationary pressure on the economy and consumers. Therefore, any change in trend has implications for overall economic activity. In the weekly Wyckoff Market Discussion (WMD) sessions Roman Bogomazov and I consider the present position and likely future direction of Crude. At the bottom of this blog post there is a link to the ‘Open Door Session' we conducted last week. In it we evaluate stocks, interest rates, crypto and commodities. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/04/10/09fb9e8b-b61b-48f9-815b-9578c229778e.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24WTIC&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&i=p08375830190&a=1389876902')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Tune into Power Charting this Friday for a case study analysis of Crude Oil on StockChartsTV. This chart is a preview of Friday's Power Charting workshop. </p><p>In March of 2022 Crude accelerated into a Buying Climax and was immediately reversed. At that time in WMD (and Power Charting) we called for a stopping of the upward trend with a range-bound market to follow. That is what happened. Crude failed to continue the upward trend with a Secondary Test in June 2022 and a downtrend followed. At the conclusion of the June Secondary Test (ST) a Point & Figure count was taken flagging a downward price objective of $67 to $59 (the green shaded box defines the area of the PnF count). </p><p><strong>Chart Notes:</strong></p><ul><li>Two Trend Channels</li><li>Distribution PnF Count (green box)</li><li>PnF Count Fulfilled at $65</li><li>Trend Channels define Downward Stride</li><li>Becomes OverSold at PnF Objective</li><li>OverSold Below Channel on ThrowUnder</li><li>Spring & Test Signals Reversal Back into Channel</li><li>Cause Building for Next Trend (unfinished)</li></ul><p>Tune in to Power Charting this Friday for the complete Wyckoff case study analysis for crude oil. Current and historical PnF and vertical charts will be reviewed with a Wyckoffian perspective. </p><p>In the meantime, tune into the Wyckoff Market Discussion from last week. In addition to Wyckoff Method studies, some stunning historical analogs (crypto and gold to S&P 500) are presented by Roman. Check it out here (and note the <u>special WMD offer</u> which expires on 4/12/2023):</p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/umFUb2odE08" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">Wyckoff Market Discussion for April 5, 2023</span></p><p>To Learn More about the Wyckoff Market Discussion (<a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-market-discussion/" target="_blank">Click Here</a>)</p><p>See You Friday,</p><p>Bruce</p><p> @rdwyckoff</p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p>Wyckoff analysis of this essential commodity is currently revealing. The trend of Crude Oil has a major influence on not only most sectors of the stock market, but it is also a key cost input for the production of almost all goods, services, and other commodities. Since March of 2022, the general trend of Crude Oil has been downward, which has diminished inflationary pressure on the economy and consumers. Therefore, any change in trend has implications for overall economic activity. In the weekly Wyckoff Market Discussion (WMD) sessions Roman Bogomazov and I consider the present position...Is the S&P 500 In Late Stage Accumulation?Bruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2023-02-04:post-251292023-02-04T22:44:03Z2023-02-04T22:44:03Z<p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/02/04/09fc1daa-3a12-43c9-ab9a-c84e73a36514.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 263px;">Are the major stock indexes under Accumulation? If so, we Wyckoffians would expect an important Markup (uptrend) to follow. Accumulation is the process of large interests (known as Composite Operators) stealthily Absorbing shares of stocks they expect to appreciate during the subsequent Markup Phase. Accumulation can take an indeterminant period of time to form. The C.O. will systematically Accumulate their ‘Line of Stock' during this trendless price structure. Eventually a greater number of Institutional type investors will begin competing for the remaining supply of stock, which indicates that Absorption (and therefore Accumulation) is nearly complete. The Law of Supply and Demand is at work here. Demand is increasing and Supply has been largely Absorbed. This unbalanced condition will eventually throw stocks and the market into a new uptrend. </p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">The S&P 500 Index has been range-bound since May 2022. Now the Index is approaching the late-May peak, which we define as Resistance. The May Support and Resistance have largely contained trading as price has been unable to meaningfully escape this zone to initiate a new trend. Now the $SPX has rallied to the May '22 Resistance level. Is Absorption nearly complete, which would allow the markup to proceed from here? Below is a chart study of $SPX:</p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;"><span class="image-caption"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/02/04/f8f05b33-f2f8-406e-bc3f-0ab15c3d2a7c.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p44995494678&a=1346498780')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;"><span class="image-caption">S&P 500 Index ($SPX) Accumulation Study</span></p><p><br></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">Chart Notes:</p><ul><li>Preliminary Support (PS) and Selling Climax (SC) stop the decline in May and June.</li><li>Spring & Test in October arrives at the end of the 3rd quarter.</li><li>Two stage rally carries to the Resistance Zone & fulfilled the swing trading PnF Objective.</li><li>The Supply TrendLine has defined the 2022 Bear trend stride and has finally been exceeded in January.</li><li>Positive breadth divergence or Green Shoots appear as Spring & Test develop. </li></ul><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2023/02/04/18852929-c213-4e47-9402-83a16033b3cf.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><span class="image-caption">S&P 500 Index Point & Figure Case Study</span></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">PnF Chart Notes:</p><ul><li>Range Bound since May. Is Accumulation forming? </li><li>Swing PnF Count generated at 3rd Quarter Spring & Test.</li><li>Minimum Swing Count objective has been met as the $SPX enters Resistance Zone.</li><li>A Minor Sign of Strength (mSOS) developed as $SPX exceeded the December peak.</li><li>The index accelerated into the mSoS, Resistance Zone and minimum PnF count simultaneously.</li><li>Watch for a potential reaction with expanding volume to signal exhaustion of the rally.</li><li>Price momentum could accelerate into the 4,350 PnF upper target zone. This would be a positive.</li><li>Watch for a Major Sign of Strength (MSoS) above the August high (4,300).</li><li>After a MSoS, a Last Point of Support (LPS) or Back Up (BU) would be expected next.</li><li>Once a LPS or BU is identified, Accumulation can turn into a Markup.</li></ul><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">Caution is warranted at the Resistance area of a trading range. Traders must respect the possibility of continuation of the downtrend in an ongoing bear market. The FED is on a campaign to raise interest rates which is a normal bear market backdrop. We have enjoyed a strong rally with expanding breadth from the 3rd quarter lows. PnF horizontal count technique has nicely targeted the price objective recently fulfilled. </p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">Wyckoffians are ‘tape readers'. Therefore, we will watch for the diminished spread and volume characteristics that accompany a reaction into a LPS or BU. These events would affirm late stage Accumulation and would be a juncture for positioning stocks for a more important Markup phase.</p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">All the Best,</p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">Bruce</p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">@rdwyckoff </p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;"><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p><h2 style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">Power Charting Video</h2><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">The most recent Power Charting video focuses on finding Industry Group leadership. In this case study the Semiconductor Group is profiled. A simple scan is used to identify stocks that are leading.</p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/O2n3E-UcfkA" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;"><span class="image-caption">Finding Leadership in Semiconductors</span></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;"><strong>For More on Wyckoff Accumulation</strong></p><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">(<a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/07/wyckoff-power-charting-lets-review.html" target="_blank">click here</a>) and (<a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/06/accumulation-phase-absorbing-stock-like-a-sponge.html" target="_blank">click here</a>) </p><h2 style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">Announcement </h2><p style="margin: 0in 0in 8pt;">In the weekly Wyckoff Market Discussion (WMD) Roman Bogomazov and I profile important markets from a Wyckoff perspective. To learn more and to join our Wyckoff Community go to (<a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-market-discussion/" target="_blank">click here</a>).</p><p><br></p>Are the major stock indexes under Accumulation? If so, we Wyckoffians would expect an important Markup (uptrend) to follow. Accumulation is the process of large interests (known as Composite Operators) stealthily Absorbing shares of stocks they expect to appreciate during the subsequent Markup Phase. Accumulation can take an indeterminant period of time to form. The C.O. will systematically Accumulate their ‘Line of Stock' during this trendless price structure. Eventually a greater number of Institutional type investors will begin competing for the remaining supply of stock, which...Will the QQQ Swing into Gear?Bruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2022-12-02:post-247872022-12-03T16:38:19Z2022-12-02T22:37:15Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/12/02/207929d1-90db-4bac-8c66-1b0c9b32e001.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;">Mega-Cap Growth stocks have led the stock market weakness on the way down in 2022. They have also lagged during the 4th quarter rally. This weakness has been a drag on major stock indexes such as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite. With the recent rally phase well underway could the Mega-Cap Growth stocks be preparing to play catchup with a bout of outperformance? The Mega-Cap Stocks have immense capitalization weighting in the major stock indexes. If they shake off their underperforming ways, even temporarily, it could put stock indexes into hyperdrive. We turn to a Swing Trading PnF case study of the QQQ ETF to determine if a ‘Cause' has formed for a rally and the upward potential of that advance. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/12/02/4a464ba3-5b6e-4481-b6e7-0163f8a7fafe.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p92466214760&a=1303147570')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Chart Notes:</p><ul><li>A potential Swing Trading Accumulation Structure back to September for QQQ.</li><li>QQQ Mega-Cap stocks have been a performance drag on major stock indexes during 2022.</li><li>Relative Strength downtrend for the current quarter and the year illustrates the weakness.</li><li>Relative Strength downtrend since August is attempting to reverse upward.</li><li>QQQ is now in a Backup position with low volatility and diminished volume.</li><li>The Overhead Supply trendline is immediately above and is important resistance. </li></ul><p><br></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/12/02/666276b7-6b4c-4f5b-8ef3-87b1cf0e2da5.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Point & Figure Chart Notes:</p><ul><li>Swing PnF count (yellow shading) has price objectives near the August highs.</li><li>A rise to this level would exceed the overhead Supply Line and the 200 d.m.a. </li></ul><p>Better participation from these all-important mega-cap stocks would be a boost to the stock indexes, at least temporarily. A Swing PnF accumulation count appears nearly complete. This is a very important juncture on the charts, and we should monitor developments closely.</p><p><br></p><p>All the Best,</p><p>Bruce</p><p>@rdwyckoff</p><p><br></p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p><p><br></p><h2>Announcement:</h2><p><strong>Best of Wyckoff Workshop. December 15, 2022, 9am to 12:30pm ET </strong></p><p>This complimentary event is generously sponsored by the International Federation of Technical Analysts</p><p>To learn more and to register (<a href="https://ifta.org/wyckoff-workshop/" target="_blank">click here</a>)</p><p><strong>Presenters and Topics:</strong></p><ul><li>Alessio Rutigiano, Navigating the Crypto Market</li><li>Fantz Herr, Improve Your Trading Results with Post-Trade Analysis</li><li>John ‘Johniscan' Colucci, Scanning for Wyckoff Setups</li><li>William Reardon & Roman Bogomazov, Live Trading Session (Wyckoff Tape Reading)</li><li>Roman Bogomazov & Bruce Fraser, Wyckoff Market Discussion. A Wyckoff review of current markets</li></ul><p>To learn more and to register (<a href="https://ifta.org/wyckoff-workshop/" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a><span target="_blank">)</span></p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p><br></p>Mega-Cap Growth stocks have led the stock market weakness on the way down in 2022. They have also lagged during the 4th quarter rally. This weakness has been a drag on major stock indexes such as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite. With the recent rally phase well underway could the Mega-Cap Growth stocks be preparing to play catchup with a bout of outperformance? The Mega-Cap Stocks have immense capitalization weighting in the major stock indexes. If they shake off their underperforming ways, even temporarily, it could put stock indexes into hyperdrive. We turn to a Swing Trading...Power Charting TV: Stocks on the EdgeBruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2022-10-19:post-245222022-10-19T02:33:16Z2022-10-19T01:20:47Z<p style="margin: 0in;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/10/18/dec0860c-dcb7-4dcb-aab7-2d95c00cee2e.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 399px;">On rare occasions stock indexes become delicately balanced between two profoundly differing scenarios. This currently seems to be one of those junctures. The most recent Power Charting TV episode explores this existential moment. </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Stock indexes have been in a mega-bullish upward stride since 2009. The pace of this advance has been illustrated by a classic Wyckoff trend channel construction in the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) and the NASDAQ 100 Mega-Cap Index ($NDX). Now both of these indexes are teetering just below their trend channels. Further declines in these indexes will clearly spell the end of decade long (secular) uptrends. </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">A rally needs to start soon to keep the very long secular trend intact. And there is a ray of hope that such an outcome is possible. Regular Power Charting viewers are aware that we are always on the search for potential ‘Green Shoots' that manifest prior to the emergence of a new rally phase in stock indexes. In September and October early evidence of Green Shoots developed. This suggests that individual stocks are beginning to resist the downward trend pressure. Two intraday breadth indicators are profiled in this episode. We can observe the classic downside non-confirmation (DNC) of the breadth indicators to the falling stock indexes as the internals improve. </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p><span class="image-caption"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/10/18/2dc2ad37-facc-4561-bea2-8802f841be7c.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYA50R&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p17244425465&a=1272113762')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></span></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><span class="image-caption">NYSE Stocks Above the 50 Day Moving Average and S&P 500</span></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Here is another illustration of the non-confirmation phenomena using the percent of stocks above the 50 Day Simple Moving Average (daily data). The message of this indicator is that some leadership stocks turn upward prior to the low in the stock index. This Breadth non-confirmation principle was part of the ‘Tree of Indicators' concept used for timing Swing, Intermediate and Cyclic turns in the stock market and was taught in the Technical Analysis classes at Golden Gate University (GGU). </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Also, presented in this ‘Stocks on the Edge' episode is an introduction to the ‘Power Charting Trend Model'. Future episodes will profile how to interpret this trend model and the methods for finding industry groups and stocks that are emerging into uptrends.</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Watch ‘Stocks on the Edge' here:</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/PSuNNIyQ89Y" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p style="margin: 0in;"><span class="image-caption">Stocks on the Edge. Power Charting. October 14, 2022</span></p><p style="margin: 0in;">All the Best,</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Bruce</p><p style="margin: 0in;">@rdwyckoff</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong><em><u>Announcement:</u></em></strong></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">The Wyckoff Market Discussion weekly series will have an open session on Wednesday October 19th at 3pm PT. Roman and I discuss markets from a Wyckoffian perspective each week. You are invited to join us for this special edition. Invite your friends, bring the popcorn, and prepare to be immersed in financial markets through the lens of Wyckoff. (<a href="https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/5318915413199069456?source=WA" target="_blank">click here to register</a>). </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">To Learn More about the Wyckoff Market Discussion series: <a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-market-discussion/" target="_blank">https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-market-discussion/</a></p><p><br></p>On rare occasions stock indexes become delicately balanced between two profoundly differing scenarios. This currently seems to be one of those junctures. The most recent Power Charting TV episode explores this existential moment. Stock indexes have been in a mega-bullish upward stride since 2009. The pace of this advance has been illustrated by a classic Wyckoff trend channel construction in the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) and the NASDAQ 100 Mega-Cap Index ($NDX). Now both of these indexes are teetering just below their trend channels. Further declines in these indexes will clearly spell...Power Charting TV: Accumulation in the Master's Own WordsBruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2022-09-11:post-243462022-09-11T21:01:56Z2022-09-11T21:01:56Z<p><br></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/09/11/94093580-a318-49f6-af28-c0c9b08c15c4.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 399px;"><strong>Richard D. Wyckoff, the Master, in his own words; and his quest to understand what propelled stock prices. </strong></p><p>He observed large interests conducting campaigns of a magnitude that resulted in trends lasting for months and years. As a young man he studied these Composite Operators (C.O.) and how they would stealthily conduct campaigns. He developed a methodology for detecting the footprints of C.O. interests on the charts (which he called Tape Reading). He created an entire approach called the ‘Wyckoff Method' for identifying the campaigns of large Accumulation and Distribution and how they emerge into the trends where sizeable returns are made. </p><p>In this Power Charting TV episode, we study the very words of the Master as he recounts his discovery of the Accumulation process as performed by legendary operator E.H. Harriman (of Union Pacific Railroad fame) as he conducted a major campaign. In our Power Charting case study, we apply Mr. Wyckoff's words to a campaign transpiring a full 100 years later. The essential conclusion is the principles of successful speculation have not changed much, if at all since Mr. Wyckoff's Wall Street tenure.</p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/AuWYCsklf-g" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">Mastery Lessons from Richard D. Wyckoff</span></p><p>Johni Scan (John Colucci) then illustrates a one-line scan that ranks the leading industry groups. Then how to search those groups for the best leading stock ideas and how to use those scans for identifying emerging Accumulation. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/09/11/c045e3d8-c7e4-499d-9fac-60e42dabfc1c.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><span class="image-caption">Source: Wyckoff Power Charting. Let's Review | July 01, 2015</span></p><p><strong>Announcement: </strong></p><p><strong>Technical Securities Analysts Association (TSAASF.org) Fall (Hybrid) Conference</strong></p><p>This iconic conference is a Fall Tradition. Learn what the large institutional interests are thinking and doing from these leading technical analysts. There is no better time in the markets than now to learn the perspective of this group of industry leaders as the all-important fourth quarter approaches. There are two ways to attend this conference; live or virtual. Virtual attendance is included with your TSAASF.org membership (easy to join). Live attendance includes lunch, post conference reception, and additional off-line content (yours truly will be conducting a pre-conference ‘Coffee with Wyckoff' session on swing trading) and StockCharts.com's own David Keller will present during the lunch hour. Join us for what will certainly be a memorable day. To learn more, join the TSAA-SF and attend (<a href="https://www.tsaasf.org/" target="_blank">click here</a>).</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/09/11/7b544dc9-d3fb-46b7-9275-499dd0cf86a5.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto; width: 75%;"></p><p><br></p><p>See You There,</p><p>Bruce</p><p> @rdwyckoff</p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p><p><br></p>Richard D. Wyckoff, the Master, in his own words; and his quest to understand what propelled stock prices. He observed large interests conducting campaigns of a magnitude that resulted in trends lasting for months and years. As a young man he studied these Composite Operators (C.O.) and how they would stealthily conduct campaigns. He developed a methodology for detecting the footprints of C.O. interests on the charts (which he called Tape Reading). He created an entire approach called the ‘Wyckoff Method' for identifying the campaigns of large Accumulation and Distribution and how they...Stocks at a CrossroadBruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2022-08-25:post-242562022-08-25T22:47:57Z2022-08-25T22:47:57Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/08/25/ce6242a1-f738-463f-81b8-250727954462.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 300px;">Determining the stride of an uptrend or downtrend is an essential Wyckoff technique. The stride of a trend is often set early in that trend and then prices can adhere to that pace of advance or decline for the majority of the bull or bear run. Trend determination techniques have been covered often in this blog and you are encouraged to review these materials and case studies. Below is an interpretation of the downtrend in force in 2022. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/08/25/3e37b8b9-488b-4173-8a5b-7454b9a80e9c.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p07933325389&a=1230618296')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY)</span></p><p><strong>Chart Notes:</strong></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/08/25/3279826c-5bc3-4400-936e-b7b443d4da49.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><strong>Two Bullish and One Bearish Scenario:</strong></p><p><em>Backup to the Edge of the Creek (BUEC). </em>First decline from a climactic surge will typically be sharp and swift. If this is a BUEC the SPY should stabilize in the area of local support (where it is now). A small range-bound sideways structure would follow. Volume would dry up, and daily price spreads would diminish. </p><p><em>Last Point of Support (LPS). </em>The sharp and sudden decline that has begun will continue into the middle of the range-bound structure forming since May of this year. A return to the area of the lower channel trendline is very possible. Typically, the shallower the reaction the more bullish for the uptrend.</p><p><em>Downtrend resumes.</em> The April decline showed persistent selling with wide daily price spreads and increasing volume. Note the volatile break in early June. The SPY is very close to entering that price zone now. There was very little to nonexistent price support in the price zone from 410 to 365. A return into that price zone could recreate a similar volatility profile during a price decline. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/08/25/342d78ed-261f-4f17-bb07-19aaa22e265e.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><span class="image-caption">S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY) Point & Figure Case Study</span></p><p><strong>Chart Notes:</strong></p><ul><li><em>Segment A (yellow shading): </em>Fulfilled during the rally to resistance. The current reaction has taken back the climactic rally run. The start point of a climactic rally is often the support point when a subsequent pullback occurs (SPY 410-412 in this case).</li><li><em>Segment B (green shading):</em> Reaches to the resistance of the January price high. The ability to consolidate here and resume the uptrend would put these higher price objectives into play. </li></ul><p>The recent rally has been the best of the year for the stock indexes and many stocks. The rally peak is reminiscent of the March advance, only stronger. The indexes are on the cusp here. Wyckoffians have scenarios mapped out and tactics established. The market risk profile is heightened from the June and July levels when many stocks were preparing for swing trading advances. For those trading this market risk exposure needs to be reassessed and tightened. </p><p>All the Best,</p><p>Bruce</p><p>@rdwyckoff</p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p><p><br></p><hr><p><strong><u>Announcements:</u></strong></p><p><strong>Technical Securities Analysts Association Fall Conference. September 17, 2022</strong></p><p><em>Hybrid Conference Format. In-person AND virtual!</em></p><p>The 2022 Conference will include a great lineup of technical analysis and trading experts as guest speakers. This year, TSAA-SF is hosting a hybrid event, in-person at GGU and online via Zoom. In-person attendees will have access to exclusive pre-event coffee chats, lunch and a post event happy hour! </p><p>Virtual Attendance is Included with Your TSAA-SF Membership. To Learn More and Sign-up (<a href="https://www.tsaasf.org/" target="_blank">click here</a>)</p><p>To View the Speaker Bios (<a href="https://www.tsaasf.org/page-1687808" target="_blank">click here</a>) </p><hr><p><strong>Wyckoff Analytics Fall Course Announcement. </strong></p><p>Wyckoff Trading Course, Part 1. Analysis (first session is free)</p><p>Wyckoff Trading Course, Part 2. Execution (first session is free)</p><p>To Learn More and Sign-up for the Free Sessions (<a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/" target="_blank"><strong>click here</strong></a><span target="_blank">)</span></p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p><br></p>Determining the stride of an uptrend or downtrend is an essential Wyckoff technique. The stride of a trend is often set early in that trend and then prices can adhere to that pace of advance or decline for the majority of the bull or bear run. Trend determination techniques have been covered often in this blog and you are encouraged to review these materials and case studies. Below is an interpretation of the downtrend in force in 2022. S&P 500 SPDR ETF (SPY)Chart Notes:Two Bullish and One Bearish Scenario:Backup to the Edge of the Creek (BUEC). First decline from a climactic surge...A Wyckoff Cause is Forming. What's Next?Bruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2022-08-01:post-241342022-08-01T22:57:26Z2022-08-01T22:57:26Z<p style="margin: 0in;"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/08/01/cc6a76c4-993e-4073-b56e-02fb561a9520.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 263px;">In May and June oversold conditions in the major stock indexes developed. Internal breadth and sentiment measures reached notable extremes. Keeping in mind the quarter-end effect, Wyckoffians were on the lookout for an acceleration of the downtrend into a ‘Selling Climax', which arrived in mid-June (quarter-end). Following a series of selling panics (in May and June) a period of ‘Testing' and ‘Cause' building would be expected. A successful test followed in July with two declines of narrowing spread and diminished volume. After becoming oversold below the downtrend channel (green shaded area on the chart below), the S&P 500 worked its way back into the channel (above the oversold trendline). A quality rally followed and now the index is at initial resistance.</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">In Power Charting episodes on StockChartsTV we discussed ‘Green Shoots' during the recent Selling Climax and subsequent tests (green shaded area). This was evidence of internal exhaustion of selling (likely window dressing) as the quarter was coming to a close. This echoed the January to March period of ‘Green Shoots' that preceded the significant April advance (which completed a ReDistribution structure). </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/08/01/5be5e72e-f27a-4fb3-aae5-faea40d96393.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&i=p17696697446&a=1185974156')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">S&P 500 Index - For Educational Use. Not a Recommendation</span></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Chart Notes:</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><ul><li>As the Distribution unfolded, beginning in the fall of '21, I have been using this $SPX chart as a real-time Wyckoff case study of emerging Distribution and Markdown. </li><li>Currently range-bound, a possible Cause is forming for a more important rally. Most likely in the context of a long-term bear market. Price holding above resistance is needed to confirm.</li><li>The downtrending ‘Supply Trendline' and the declining 200dma are at approximately the same level and could be a price objective for this rally.</li><li>The Cause building process is not complete and will likely grow larger. We must keep this in mind when estimating PnF objectives.</li><li>Bear Market rallies can be very convincing, resulting in many market pundits declaring the Bear vanquished. Wyckoffians follow the action of the ‘Tape' allowing the market to lead the way.</li><li>Initial overhead resistance is now being approached and may lead to ‘Backups'. Shallow and narrow reactions are preferred. A deeper reaction could signal either ReDistribution or continuation of a range-bound structure. We will study price and volume characteristics for essential clues.</li></ul><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/08/01/e25c5046-d9d8-4709-ad71-8502c5a96354.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">NASDAQ Composite Index ($compq)</span></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Another stock index perspective is the NASDAQ Composite through the lens of a Point & Figure case study. Using the 1 – Box Reversal technique (and 100 point scaling) the January to April ReDistribution horizontal count was taken. The objective range was fulfilled between 12,000 and 11,000 with the May decline. The climactic decline stopped at the brief ThrowUnder of the OverSold trendline. This was the start of a ‘Range-Bound' condition. In June there was another attempt to reach the OverSold Line which produced a Selling Climax. </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">The current range-bound price structure appears unfinished (if Accumulation) and would likely need a shallow and brief reaction to be complete. A sharp decline to the area of prior (June) support is not out of the question either. If this is ReDistribution, the prior March to April rally high could be a suitable analog.</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">All the Best,</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Bruce</p><p style="margin: 0in;">@rdwyckoff</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;">An archive of Power Charting episodes discussed in this article is available (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLyNJu-3PikrS22Ti9lUWcq7Jj2RyDctZC" target="_blank">click here</a>)</p><p style="margin: 0in;"><br></p><p style="margin: 0in;"><strong>Announcement:</strong></p><p style="margin: 0in;">Each week Roman Bogomazov and I discuss the current state of the financial markets from a Wyckoffian perspective. To learn more about this dynamic weekly session (<a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-market-discussion/" target="_blank">click here</a>)</p><p><br></p>In May and June oversold conditions in the major stock indexes developed. Internal breadth and sentiment measures reached notable extremes. Keeping in mind the quarter-end effect, Wyckoffians were on the lookout for an acceleration of the downtrend into a ‘Selling Climax', which arrived in mid-June (quarter-end). Following a series of selling panics (in May and June) a period of ‘Testing' and ‘Cause' building would be expected. A successful test followed in July with two declines of narrowing spread and diminished volume. After becoming oversold below the downtrend channel (green shaded...Is the Trend About to Bend?Bruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2022-05-02:post-236652022-05-02T16:50:40Z2022-05-02T16:50:40Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/05/02/113c12b7-e33e-439d-be18-6f1d5712589b.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 259px;">When studying the markets chartists can tend to become myopic and close in on smaller and smaller timeframes (certainly that is the case for this Wyckoffian). Meanwhile, the tsunami of monster trends can engulf portfolios with unexpected reversals. A powerful antidote to this vulnerability is awareness of the major price trends. When a large trend takes hold, it can persist for very long periods of time. The trend is not only a chartist's friend, it is what makes technical analysis work! Richard D. Wyckoff taught a method of trend analysis that is unique, effective, and original. This technique has been studied extensively in this blog (links to some of these posts are below). </p><p>Here are some notable trend studies of the epic and decade long trends that have been unfolding and continue to be mostly in-force. Does this very long trend in financial assets still have life? What conclusions can we draw from the present position of the indexes within their trends? Can these trend studies inform our current trading and investing tactics? </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/05/02/e7cbd987-42e4-4bcc-a2d9-264bc5cd200d.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">S&P 500 (2003-2022)</span>Two trends (2004-08 and 2009 to the present) are illustrated with trendline studies and a Keltner Channel. Price plots are monthly. The current upward trend stride is remarkably long in duration. An overbought condition can be defined by a throwover of either the Supply Line or the Keltner Channel. This occurred in 2015 and 2021. An Overbought status can persist in long term uptrends and we see, in both cases, the index ‘rides' along the upper trendline and channel for a number of months. The MACD Histogram flips negative almost simultaneously with the downward turn of the index below the ‘Supply Trendline' and into an index price decline. The scale of the upward trend and the width of the trend channel is large and meaningful. Price declines to the lower trend channel line often takes months, even when the primary trend remains upward and intact. How would you manage your portfolio risk in an environment defined by this overbought condition during an ongoing uptrend? Each investor and trader would have a unique answer to this question. On to some additional examples. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/05/02/38a4cdc3-ab6a-41e3-a61a-12a8fc649743.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p> <strong>Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) Trend Study and Chart Notes:</strong></p><ul><li>Stride set by ‘Reverse Use Trendline' in 2011-12.</li><li>Demand Line follows the same upward stride. </li><li>2021-22 Index becomes overbought above the channel. Rides top trendline for 10 months.</li><li>Back into the channel in 2022. Vulnerable to downward volatility once it falls back into channel.</li><li>Demand Line is strong support during 2020 decline.</li></ul><p><br></p><p><span class="image-caption"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/05/02/0f6b7c54-d708-4e8d-9a17-f10d81a8a719.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;">NASDAQ Composite with Relative Strength (2009-2022)</span></p><p><strong>NASDAQ Composite ($COMPQ) Trendline Study with Relative Strength</strong></p><p>Chart Notes:</p><ul><li>Stride set in 2010-11 with Reverse Use Trendline. Very well defined channel for 10 years.</li><li>At the 2020 price lows Relative Strength is already breaking above the channel and $COMPQ establishes strong leadership.</li><li>Distribution appears to be forming in price and Relative Strength during 2021-22.</li><li>Buying Climax (BC) and Automatic Reaction (AR) is pronounced on the Relative Strength study in 1st Qtr of 2021. This event signals the conclusion of the decade long leadership of NASDAQ stocks.</li><li>Price has recently returned into the channel from above.</li></ul><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/05/02/25bc1abd-bc99-4155-ad77-a3106c7d19cf.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) with Relative Strength (2015-2022)</span></p><p><strong>QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) Notes:</strong></p><ul><li>Stride set in 2016 on this weekly chart.</li><li>Relative Strength has slowed ahead of price and has formed an Upthrust in late '21. </li><li>Relative Strength became range-bound in 2020 in advance of price which peaked in late '21 with diminishing upward thrusts.</li><li>Now below the RS neckline while price is resting on the lower channel trendline. </li><li>A rally here is needed to defend this long term upward trend. </li><li>The seven year trend is on the verge of failing.</li></ul><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/05/02/2de92b74-97c9-4c06-94b0-86102ecda0ff.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">NASDAQ 100 Index ($NDX) with C.B.O.E. Equity Put / Call Volume (2006-2022)</span></p><p><strong>NASDAQ 100 Trend Study (2006 to Present)</strong></p><p>Chart Notes:</p><ul><li>Anchor Points of Demand Trendline in 2010 & 2011 set the stride of the Bull Market Secular Trend.</li><li>OverBought parallel trendline is exceeded in 2020. Is this a Climactic 18-month surge?</li><li>Now reversing back towards upper channel line. Will it act as Support?</li><li>Secular extreme Put volume (high pessimism) in 2008 is notable and coincides with the ‘Great Recession' Bear Market.</li><li>Extreme Call Volume (high optimism) activity in 2021 coincides with the Climactic run up and out of the channel. A possible psychological conclusion of the 13 year bull market advance.</li></ul><p>The Wyckoffian method for trendline and trend channel construction is unique and illuminating. Trend technique is fractal and works in all timeframes. Mastery of Wyckoffian trend identification is a powerful trading tool. Stockcharts.com is a superior platform for annotating, analyzing, and saving your trend studies. The examples highlighted above are notable and illustrative while there are many more not covered here. </p><p>When analyzing a trend step out to the next larger timeframe to determine if a larger trend is at work. This larger trend could overwhelm and engulf the instrument you are evaluating, and possibly trading. The ebb and flow of the instrument being studied often has a rhythm within the channel as the larger trend is unfolding. Being aware of this trend heartbeat can improve patience in waiting for the best setup for a new surge in the direction of the primary trend being studied.</p><p>All the Best,</p><p>Bruce</p><p>@rdwyckoff </p><p><strong>Additional Reading on Trend Analysis</strong></p><p><strong>Click (</strong><a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/10/trendapalooza.html" target="_blank"><strong>Here </strong></a><strong>& </strong><a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/07/making-the-trend-your-friend.html" target="_blank"><strong>Here </strong></a><strong>& </strong><a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/07/being-a-chart-whisperer.html" target="_blank"><strong>Here</strong></a><strong>)</strong></p><p><br></p><p><strong>Announcement</strong>:</p><p>Dr. Gary Dayton, Psy.D. , Wyckoff trader and Peak Performance Trading Coach will present a 3-Part live workshop on May 3, May 10 & May 17. This is a must attend workshop for all Wyckoff Traders. </p><p>Workshop Title:</p><p>TRADE MINDFULLY</p><p>ACHIEVE OPTIMAL TRADING PERFORMANCE WITH</p><p>MINDFULNESS & CUTTING-EDGE PSYCHOLOGY</p><p>To Learn More and Register: (<a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/event/trade-mindfully/" target="_blank">Click Here</a>)</p><p><br></p><p><br></p><p><br></p>When studying the markets chartists can tend to become myopic and close in on smaller and smaller timeframes (certainly that is the case for this Wyckoffian). Meanwhile, the tsunami of monster trends can engulf portfolios with unexpected reversals. A powerful antidote to this vulnerability is awareness of the major price trends. When a large trend takes hold, it can persist for very long periods of time. The trend is not only a chartist's friend, it is what makes technical analysis work! Richard D. Wyckoff taught a method of trend analysis that is unique, effective, and original. This...Wyckoff Principles within PrinciplesBruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2022-04-03:post-235132022-04-03T20:17:26Z2022-04-03T20:17:26Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/04/03/1c2a047b-33ff-4a33-8960-e19c2d152fce.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 150px;">Trouble for the S&P 500 Index became apparent last September when an outsized decline arrived. Downward volatility with volume expansion (presence of Supply) characterized the decline into October, touching the demand trendline. Bulls were relieved by the near vertical rise into November which included a new high in the index. Two attributes of that rally had clues and warnings regarding exhaustion of the larger advance in force since the March 2020 lows. There was the sharp and persistent advance of the index which could be viewed as a Buying Climax (BC). Second was the acceleration of that rally as it culminated on high volume. Once a Climax (BC or SC) and Automatic Reaction (AR) occur, a range-bound condition is expected, and that is what came next. Roman Bogomazov and I evaluated this structure as it was unfolding in our weekly ‘Wyckoff Market Discussion' (see below for a complimentary invitation to attend the upcoming WMD on April 6th).</p><p> <img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/04/03/c4c108e9-c759-4180-83e1-bb867a10530d.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p47490397064&a=1135223533')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">S&P 500 Index Daily Chart</span></p><p>Dr. Hank Pruden often discussed the concept of ‘Principles within Principles' in our Wyckoff Method classes. This concept is at work throughout the recent stock market structure. Let's profile one of those here. Green Shoots emerged in February / March during the test of the ‘Sign of Weakness'. This could be seen in internal breadth characteristics, sentiment studies and the throw under of the downward trend channel (as an oversold condition). Also Point and Figure (PnF) count objectives were being fulfilled (more on this below).</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/04/03/6dedad07-f533-48a7-b703-c54e0c9a1d28.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=120&b=5&g=0&i=p80213923068&a=1135766232')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">S&P 500 2-Hour Intraday Chart Study</span></p><p>A significant principle in Wyckoff analysis is the concept of building a cause. Here an Accumulation structure is identified on the Intraday (2-hour) vertical chart above. The Selling Climax (SC) in late January stopped the decline, followed by an Automatic Rally (AR), and this established a range-bound condition going forward. Range-bound conditions (trading ranges) are where Causes are built. Within the larger structure reaching back to January is a smaller trading range (yellow shaded box). Each of the lows within tested the January Selling Climax (SC) successfully. The subsequent March rally has been the best swing trading advance of the year. This rally returned to the Resistance area, as defined by the Automatic Rally (AR). A Point and Figure count of this smaller structure has been fulfilled (PnF chart below). The final phase of this rally had acceleration and a gap upon the throw over of the AR (labeled an Upthrust), which suggests a local Buying Climax (BC) of the March advance. We would then expect volatility back into the trading range, which appears to be unfolding now. </p><p>Capacity of the index to remain in the vicinity of the resistance area of this trading range would suggest that Accumulation is unfolding and that it is nearing completion. A return to the SC area would mean more work is needed in this potential Accumulation structure, or worse that Re-Distribution is forming for another bear leg downward.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/04/03/1e37cbd9-fbe4-46bb-a3a0-a7ea19ca4431.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto; width: 100%;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">S&P 500 Index Point & Figure Case Study</span></p><p><strong>Point and Figure Notes (chart originally profiled during weekly WMD webinar):</strong></p><ul><li>Distribution count formed after BC surge (red line) </li><li>Minimum downward count objective was touched at 4,125</li><li>A 7-column Swing trading count began forming at that point</li><li>Each decline thereafter had less force demonstrating local absorption</li><li>Both counts were taken when the downtrend line was exceeded (gray line)</li><li>The subsequent rally (not shown on this PnF chart) was partially fulfilled at 4,625 </li><li>The larger count (15 columns) is still active and has potential objectives at new price highs</li><li>This very large trading range structure reaches back to August 2021 and could be Distribution</li></ul><p>An excellent low risk trading juncture was presented on the three tests of the Selling Climax lows. In the cluster of those tests ‘Green Shoots' emerged along with a local PnF swing trading count. Now fulfilled, we will tighten our risk management and study the action of the stock indexes around this resistance area and any emerging weakness back into the trading range.</p><p>All the Best,</p><p>Bruce</p><p>@rdwyckoff</p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p><p><strong>Announcement:</strong></p><p>Join Roman Bogomazov and me for a complimentary ‘Wyckoff Market Discussion' this coming Wednesday, April 6th at 3pm PT. Each week we cover the important financial markets with a Wyckoffian orientation while also reviewing other relevant indicators effecting the present position and likely future trends of these markets. See you there!</p><p target="_blank">Registration Link (completely free and we never share your registration info): <a href="https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/1479979356668144651?source=BF" target="_blank">Click Here to Register</a></p><p target="_blank">To learn more about WMD <a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-market-discussion/" target="_blank">click here</a>.</p><p><strong>Video Links</strong></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/aQjhRpaqj4E" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">Trading Survival and Success Strategies | Bruce Fraser & Andrew Cardwell | Power Charting (04.01.22)</span></p><p><br></p><p><strong>Wyckoff Power Charting Blog Links of Interest</strong></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2022/03/distribution-or-reaccumulation-699.html" target="_blank">Distribution or Re-Accumulation?</a><a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2022/03/distribution-or-reaccumulation-699.html" target="_blank"> | March 01, 2022 at 06:36 PM</a></p><p><br></p><p><br></p>Trouble for the S&P 500 Index became apparent last September when an outsized decline arrived. Downward volatility with volume expansion (presence of Supply) characterized the decline into October, touching the demand trendline. Bulls were relieved by the near vertical rise into November which included a new high in the index. Two attributes of that rally had clues and warnings regarding exhaustion of the larger advance in force since the March 2020 lows. There was the sharp and persistent advance of the index which could be viewed as a Buying Climax (BC). Second was the acceleration...Distribution or Re-Accumulation?Bruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2022-03-01:post-233322022-03-01T23:36:23Z2022-03-01T23:36:23Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/03/01/10978d25-f289-4738-b479-06569912f712.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 473px;">Join Johni Scan and me for Monday's (2/28/2022) "Your Daily Five" where we focus on Distribution and Re-Accumulation characteristics. Both begin in nearly the same manner but conclude very differently. A Re-accumulation is a range-bound condition that forms after an uptrend. It is a pause or preparation phase for a fresh new leg of a larger uptrend.</p><p>A Distribution is a range-bound price structure that precedes a markdown (downtrend) after completion of the prior uptrend. Re-accumulations often scare traders and investors into believing that a Distribution is forming which can cause them to exit their positions. Re-accumulations form repeatedly in a major uptrend. Distributions, on the other hand, result in a reversal of trend into what Wyckoffians call a Markdown Phase.</p><p>Any rally that follows last week's extreme low will then need to be judged for how well it can reach and exceed overhead resistance, among other characteristics, to determine the possible emergence of Re-accumulation or the descent into a Markdown and completion of Distribution. Also discussed in Monday's episode are the internal positive divergences in breadth studies, extreme bearish sentiment that has emerged, and Point & Figure count objectives and their status. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/03/01/b01fceff-1fc0-425a-bfc9-87e069d4ef61.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p30475377575&a=1111321833')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">S&P 500 ($SPX) with Wyckoff Interpretation</span></p><p><strong>S&P 500 Chart Notes:</strong></p><ul><li>Following the Upthrust (UT & Test) volatility increases, and volume expands. </li><li>Not Unusual to have multiple Sign-of-Weakness (SoW) and Last Point of Supply (LPSY) chart events.</li><li>If Re-Accumulation, the price low often appears at about the 1/3 to ½ point of the completed structure.</li><li>If Re-Accumulation, look for the next rally phase to be stronger than the January rally, as a constructive sign of confirmation. </li><li>If Distribution, then demand will be poor on the rally with diminishing price and volume characteristics, and a (likely) lower high into a second LPSY.</li><li>Re-Accumulations can take months to form and are evidence of stock absorption by strong hands (see suggested reading list below). </li></ul><p>All the Best,</p><p>Bruce</p><p>@rdwyckoff</p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p><p><strong>Video Link</strong></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/aKUYhw2WHNw" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">Your Daily Five for Monday February 28, 2022</span></p><p>Additional Reading:</p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/07/rev-up-with-reaccumulation-trading-ranges.html" target="_blank">Rev Up with Reaccumulation Trading Ranges | Wyckoff Power Charting</a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/07/reaccumulation-roundup.html" target="_blank">Reaccumulation Roundup | Wyckoff Power Charting</a></p><p><a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/09/distribution-definitions.html" target="_blank">Distribution Definitions | Wyckoff Power Charting </a></p>Join Johni Scan and me for Monday's (2/28/2022) "Your Daily Five" where we focus on Distribution and Re-Accumulation characteristics. Both begin in nearly the same manner but conclude very differently. A Re-accumulation is a range-bound condition that forms after an uptrend. It is a pause or preparation phase for a fresh new leg of a larger uptrend.A Distribution is a range-bound price structure that precedes a markdown (downtrend) after completion of the prior uptrend. Re-accumulations often scare traders and investors into believing that a Distribution is forming which can cause them to...Power Charting TV: Scanning for Springs and UpthrustsBruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2022-01-16:post-230902022-01-16T18:40:12Z2022-01-16T18:40:12Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/01/16/c38a077e-1234-4a31-923d-f65c69e8d28c.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 299px;">Join Johni Scan and me on our quest to develop a library of Wyckoff Scans during 2022. Context is a term often used with chart analysis employing the Wyckoff Method. Understanding the chart attributes during the various phases of Accumulation, Distribution and Trend Analysis is a cornerstone of the Methodology. Scanning for Wyckoff conditions has been difficult and elusive largely because of the contextual changes in price behavior as these Phases evolve to their conclusion.</p><p>Two scans that we recently profiled were focused on Springs and Upthrusts. Watch these two ‘Your Daily Five' videos to see the scan language, a description of the nature of the price setups, and five examples of the scan output. Below is a link to these two videos.</p><p><strong>Range-Bound QQQ Trust ETF</strong></p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2022/01/16/b08165d4-2b62-483c-928d-06f3e6a77f2e.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQ&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p01272796139&a=1095304229')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>Those of you who have been following Power Charting blogs and videos have been tracking the upward trajectory of the QQQ NASDAQ Trust ETF. Classic Wyckoff trend channel studies and Point and Figure horizontal counts have been spot-on as a ThrowOver and Overbought condition, with a Buying Climax (BC) surge, stopped the advance in November. A range-bound condition now follows with well defined support and resistance on the daily chart. There has just been a breach of the support and the Demand trendline. Labeled here as a Sign of Weakness (SoW), it could be a Spring. In the possible context of this Spring condition, it would be logical for a Wyckoffian to run a Spring Scan to identify possible Spring candidates and setups. This is a timely example of the concept of ‘Context' applied to Wyckoff Scanning.</p><p><strong>Wyckoff Scanning Project</strong></p><p>In this week's Power Charting episode (Wyckoff 2022 Outlook, part 2) on StockChartsTV, Johni and I discuss the ‘Wyckoff Scanning Project' and the ‘Dream Scan Project'. While it is a work in progress, we showcase five interesting stocks that were generated from the current iteration of the Dream scan. When we feel it is ready for ‘Primetime' we will reveal the scan language and essential attributes of the updated version.</p><p>All the Best,</p><p>Bruce</p><p>@rdwyckoff</p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em> </p><p><br></p><p><strong>Video Links</strong></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/f9oD34ZLxXE" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">Fishing For Springs Using The Scan Engine</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/aEeTKhCrqw0" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">Scan For Upthrust Distribution In The Wyckoff World</span></p><p><strong>Wyckoffian 2022 Outlook, parts 1 & 2</strong></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/bTlW8YpeiCs" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">A Wyckoffian 2022 Outlook</span></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/ZJ-w6CsMwWc" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">Wyckoff 2022 Outlook, Part 2. Stock Selection with Johni Scan</span></p><p><br></p>Join Johni Scan and me on our quest to develop a library of Wyckoff Scans during 2022. Context is a term often used with chart analysis employing the Wyckoff Method. Understanding the chart attributes during the various phases of Accumulation, Distribution and Trend Analysis is a cornerstone of the Methodology. Scanning for Wyckoff conditions has been difficult and elusive largely because of the contextual changes in price behavior as these Phases evolve to their conclusion.Two scans that we recently profiled were focused on Springs and Upthrusts. Watch these two ‘Your Daily Five' videos...QQQ Teetering + Point & Figure Workshop TV SpecialBruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2021-11-28:post-228492021-11-28T23:18:04Z2021-11-28T23:18:04Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2021/11/28/8bdced04-1e83-4e39-b8ec-69e186d16ed8.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 399px;">The Point and Figure charting engine at StockCharts.com is an outstanding tool. It provides incredible flexibility to draw many varied types of PnF charts. Navigating the PnF chart controls is easy once they are understood. </p><p>Wyckoffians use these charts to estimate price objectives using a horizontal counting method. There are many additional analytical techniques that Technicians employ with great effect. To read more about the many varied uses of PnF charts please read the excellent ‘Point & Figure Charting' article in ChartSchool (<a href="https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:pnf_charts" target="_blank">Click Here</a>).</p><p>For readers who are new to PnF charting, and those who would like a refresher on PnF Chart construction. I have recorded a two part Point & Figure Workshop video series (see video links below). </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2021/11/28/af54562e-b52b-4452-888f-acdbd647018d.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p>The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) chart above, is plotted using the 1-Box reversal method and 5-Point scaling, both are user defined choices. It captures an upward trend that reaches back to 2018. Three horizontal trading ranges are identified from late 2020 to the present. Each horizontal range generates a price objective estimate. The most recent two counts are ‘Stepping-Stone Confirming Counts' with upper estimates of $400 for the QQQ. This PnF chart analysis is a demonstration of how Wyckoffians use these charts. </p><p><strong>Chart Summary</strong></p><ol><li>Three Swing Trading structures identified and counted since 2020. </li><li>Upward Trend Channel contains the advance of the trend.</li><li>Most recent two PnF structures are ‘Stepping-Stone' Reconfirming Counts with similar objective ranges near $400.</li><li>ThrowOver of the Channel produced an OverBought condition and simultaneously reached and exceeded, the uppermost ‘Stepping-Stone' count objective. The recent upward surge into an OverBought condition has the character of a Buying Climax (BC). Any sharp and sudden reaction back toward the $355 area reverses the BC and the likely start of a new Reaccumulation structure, or possibly Distribution. Only time will tell.</li><li>Friday's weakness has placed the ETF back at the ‘Supply Line' from above and thus further weakness threatens to return QQQ back into the trend channel. Lower support appears to be near $355 and $340 (at the Over-Sold Line). </li><li>Reversal back into the trend channel from an OverBought and ThrowOver condition often results in near term volatility and weakness. Finding and holding support near the Supply Line could prove critical to the continuation of the uptrend in force. </li></ol><p>Roman Bogomazov and I will be conducting a ‘Wyckoff Market Discussion' Open-Door Session on Wednesday December 1, and you are invited. We will evaluate these markets from a Wyckoffian perspective and consider strategies and tactics. If there is ever a WMD event to attend, this is the one, as we consider the market action following Friday's sharp reversal. To learn more about WMD (<a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/wyckoff-market-discussion/" target="_blank">CLICK HERE</a>). To register for free access to this event (<a href="https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/9082448050418613773?source=WA" target="_blank">CLICK HERE</a>).</p><p>All the Best,</p><p>Bruce</p><p>@rdwyckoff</p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em></p><p><strong>Power Charting TV. Point & Figure Construction Workshop Parts 1 & 2</strong></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/PySvB1OmZmc" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">Point & Figure Construction Workshop Special, Part 1</span></p><p><br></p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/VQBKVPzKXzs" frameborder="0" width="640" height="360" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">Point & Figure Construction Workshop Special, Part 2</span></p>The Point and Figure charting engine at StockCharts.com is an outstanding tool. It provides incredible flexibility to draw many varied types of PnF charts. Navigating the PnF chart controls is easy once they are understood. Wyckoffians use these charts to estimate price objectives using a horizontal counting method. There are many additional analytical techniques that Technicians employ with great effect. To read more about the many varied uses of PnF charts please read the excellent ‘Point & Figure Charting' article in ChartSchool (Click Here).For readers who are new to PnF charting...AAPL on the HingeBruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2021-09-12:post-224382021-09-12T21:21:26Z2021-09-12T21:21:26Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2021/09/12/58421e5f-6577-43e5-8cc7-ae5e996486bc.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 400px;">Apple, Inc. (AAPL) has been one of the most analyzed stocks in the Wyckoff Power Charting pages. It is the largest company by market capitalization and has a huge influence on the major stock indexes. On March 19th of 2015 it was added to the (pre) historic Dow Jones Industrial Average becoming a ‘Bellwether' stock in all regards. Beginning in 2019 it embarked on a rising trend that culminated with an upward acceleration into a Buying Climax (BC) in 2020 (see weekly chart below). AAPL is at a most interesting juncture here and it is time to do some Wyckoffian analysis on this stock.</p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2021/09/12/b432b84f-6190-4e2b-83af-22b50898ce10.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&i=p62727706890&a=1025376913')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">Apple, Inc. Weekly with Three Re-Accumulations</span></p><p>As the opening bell rang for the start of trading in 2019, AAPL was emerging into a price and relative strength uptrend. From the March 2020 low the trend accelerated into a Buying Climax in late August, about one year ago. The Buying Climax threw over the rising trend channel creating a classic OverBought condition. Wyckoffians expect a Buying Climax and Automatic Reaction(AR) to signal a range-bound condition for price for the foreseeable future. A Re-Accumulation structure is often the result of such a trading range. It prepares the way for the next important advance in the stock (or index). Paradoxically Distribution and Re-Accumulation begin in a like manner. So far AAPL has had the character of Re-Accumulation with diminishing volatility, higher lows and an upward bias to the trading range structure. In June AAPL rallied up through the resistance, as defined by the Buying Climax peak, and has been working higher since. As a ‘Bellweather' AAPL has been doing the job of leading the market indexes to higher prices since June.</p><p>Relative strength topped at the Buying Climax peak and has been making subtly lower highs since, not uncommon during periods of Re-Accumulation. The upward stride of RS since the 2019 low demonstrated AAPL's market performing leadership. Now a year into Re-Accumulation, institutional investors are keenly aware of the mildly underperforming status of AAPL during the prior year, as defined by a year of lower highs in Relative Strength. </p><p>Study the upward striding trend channel for AAPL and the recent flirtation with the lower channel trendline. Two important technical levels on the weekly chart are; 1) the prior resistance line (Buying Climax Level) and 2) the lower trend channel line (where price now rests). We will watch closely for a possible break of both of these levels as a technical price failure, with the expectation that the trend for this stock is still upward, but in peril. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2021/09/12/ad709670-3d81-4d71-aa40-039913c7ebc9.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p09403934751&a=1025376326')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">Apple, Inc. Daily</span></p><p>Zooming into the daily view, a Preliminary Supply peak forms at year end 2020 and then a Buying Climax (BC) in late January of this year. A Resistance line is extended from the BC and a Support line from the low of the Automatic Reaction (AR). Higher lows from the AR onward suggests a potential Re-Accumulation structure. The Backup (BU) and rally are making new price highs, but so far are not making new RS highs. An attempt to rally away from the Resistance line in July has been lackluster. The most recent daily price bar is a sharp reversal downward on significant volume. Price should hold around the area of the Resistance line and not drop back into the Re-Accumulation range. </p><p>Three Re-Accumulations have formed (see numbered boxes on the weekly chart), and all have had breakouts (the third is profiled in the yellow shaded box on the daily chart). A drop below the $137 price level will reverse all three of those structures. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2021/09/12/d899eb7c-606f-4806-a8b5-d7f2fd3490e5.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">Apple, Inc. Point & Figure Case Study. 3-Box Method. 3 PnF Counts.</span></p><p>A Re-Accumulation with an upward stride has developed since last September. Three Point & Figure horizontal counts are considered. Two internal counts (yellow and green shaded boxes) are ‘Stepping Stone' confirming counts to a range of $155 to $165. The minimum objective of $155 has recently been reached. Fulfilling these two confirming counts could represent a form of resistance for AAPL. A larger count (red shading) stretches across the entire structure and reaches $215 / $235. </p><p><strong>A summary of the present position of Apple, Inc.</strong></p><ul><li>AAPL is on the cusp of important thresholds</li><li>AAPL has rallied above the year long Re-Accumulation (weekly chart & PnF)</li><li>AAPL has rallied above the 2021 Re-Accumulation (daily chart)</li><li>AAPL has rallied above a minor Re-Accumulation from July to September </li><li>Relative Strength has been negatively diverging from price since August 2020</li><li>RS is still above a rising long term moving average (weekly chart)</li><li>Important Support levels and trendlines are directly below current price levels ($144 to $137)</li><li>The upward trend is our friend, while definable risk levels are just below the current price</li><li>New product announcements could generate emerging demand</li><li>If Re-Accumulation is complete a new phase of markup should accelerate price and RS higher</li></ul><p>Any failure of price through nearby Resistance lines, Support lines and trendlines on expanding volatility and volume could signal an Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) </p><p>As a leadership stock AAPL could inspire a stock market rally with a fresh new uptrend. Re-Accumulation structures are periods when stocks pause and refresh for continuation of a prior advance. As is often the case, stocks get into precarious positions at the existential moment when the trend could pivot in either direction. AAPL appears to be at this interesting juncture. </p><p>All the Best,</p><p>Bruce</p><p>@rdwyckoff</p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em></p><p><strong>Announcement:</strong></p><p><strong><u>TSAA-SF Annual Fall Conference. September 18th </u></strong></p><p>The Technical Securities Analysts Association of San Francisco (TSAA-SF) will host its annual fall conference on Saturday, September 18th. An All-Star list of great traders and technical analysts will present at this year's event. Members of the TSAA-SF can attend with no additional charge and have access to all recordings. If members cannot attend any part of the live conference they can view it, any time on-demand. So become a member of this great community of technicians and traders today and enjoy the excellent presentations and content all year long!</p><p>Learn more, become a member and register for the event here:</p><p><a href="https://www.tsaasf.org/" target="_blank"><strong>tsaasf.org</strong></a></p><p>List of this year's presenters:</p><ul><li><strong>Chris Kimble</strong> - founder and CEO of Kimble Charting Solutions</li><li><strong>Craig Johnson, CFA, CMT</strong> - Managing Director and Senior Technical Research Analyst at Piper Sandler Companies</li><li><strong>Irusha Peiris, CMT</strong> - portfolio manager at O'Neil Global Advisors</li><li><strong>Alessio Rutigliano</strong> - Wyckoff Method educator focused on crypto markets</li><li><strong>Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.</strong> - Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY</li><li><strong>Ari H. Wald, CFA, CMT</strong> - Managing Director and head of Technical Analysis at Oppenheimer</li></ul><p><br></p>Apple, Inc. (AAPL) has been one of the most analyzed stocks in the Wyckoff Power Charting pages. It is the largest company by market capitalization and has a huge influence on the major stock indexes. On March 19th of 2015 it was added to the (pre) historic Dow Jones Industrial Average becoming a ‘Bellwether' stock in all regards. Beginning in 2019 it embarked on a rising trend that culminated with an upward acceleration into a Buying Climax (BC) in 2020 (see weekly chart below). AAPL is at a most interesting juncture here and it is time to do some Wyckoffian analysis on this...Is the DJIA Completing a Wyckoff Reaccumulation?Bruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2021-07-24:post-221882021-07-24T18:22:09Z2021-07-24T18:22:09Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2021/07/23/f5861815-b733-4afa-a39f-de301e6d10db.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; width: 425px; float: left;">On the most recent episode of Power Charting on Stock Charts TV (link below) an analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average was considered. A sudden and sharp reaction occurred earlier this week. The index returned to the Oversold Trendline and found good support. Is the DJIA completing a Reaccumulation that reaches back to April? If so, a Point & Figure horizontal count study should provide price estimates for the advance. The DJIA has the potential to go from a trendless range bound state to a fresh new uptrend. This is a very interesting juncture for the index. Let's have a look. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2021/07/23/cd7ffb97-a32e-4e40-a3f6-cadce6227ad7.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p63492607418&a=996721480')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"><span class="image-caption">Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily) with Wyckoff Labeling</span></p><p>The upward stride of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is in a well defined upsloping channel. In April and May an overbought condition started with a Buying Climax and continued with a range bound Reaccumulation. The Sign-of-Strength into Resistance produced a sharp reaction that could not reach Support, a bullish occurrence. In Wyckoff terms this is a Phase |C| event or final test of the Reaccumulation. A quick rally has been the response, further confirmation of the LPS label. A jump up and out would be evidence of overhead supply being absorbed. We will watch closely for this possible next step.<span class="image-caption"><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2021/07/23/89601148-2b58-45d9-bd5b-186759025150.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;">Dow Jones Industrial Average Point & Figure Horizontal Count Case Study </span><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com//:0"></p><p>In Wyckoff Point & Figure horizontal count analysis, we apply the labels from the vertical chart (above) to the PnF chart. In this case take the count from the Last Point of Support (LPS) to the Automatic Reaction (AR). This is 15 columns multiplied by the reversal method (3-Box) then multiplied by the scaling (100 points). This generates 4,500 DJIA points of potential. Which is added to the low and the countline (LPS). The objective range is 37,800 to 38,300. A meaningful appreciation potential from the current index value.</p><p><strong>Tactics</strong></p><p>The resistance as defined by the Buying Climax (BC) which is 35,000, should be exceeded with momentum. This may happen imminently or after a brief pause. Any reaction here should be shallow and brief which demonstrates that absorption is nearly complete and DJIA stocks are in strong hands following the Reaccumulation. A jump through Resistance is often followed by a Backup to that line, which should hold.</p><p>A larger PnF count is possible either because of more weakness back into the trading range or on the Backup to the Resistance line after a Jump up and out. The DJIA is in the Danger Zone at the Resistance line. A rally above this level would be a very meaningful clue regarding the start of a fresh new uptrend.</p><p>All the Best,</p><p>Bruce</p><p>@rdwyckoff</p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em></p><p><br></p><p><strong>Power Charting TV</strong></p><p>Watch the most recent Power Charting episode on-demand by clicking on the link below. A presentation of other important indexes and their PnF count objectives are shown and discussed.</p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/64GEbJBNuKI" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="360" frameborder="0"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">Power Charting Episode -Wyckoff Chartfest- July 16, 2021</span></p><p><br></p><p><strong>Additional Wyckoff Resources:</strong></p><p>Rev Up with Reaccumulation Trading Ranges -Wyckoff Power Charting Blog (<a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/07/rev-up-with-reaccumulation-trading-ranges.html" target="_blank">click here for link</a>)</p><p>Reaccumulation Roundup -Wyckoff Power Charting Blog (<a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2015/07/reaccumulation-roundup.html" target="_blank">click here for link</a>)</p><p>Reaccumulation Review -Wyckoff Power Charting Blog (<a href="https://stockcharts.com/articles/wyckoff/2018/01/reaccumulation-review.html" target="_blank">click here for link</a>)</p><p><br></p><p><br></p>On the most recent episode of Power Charting on Stock Charts TV (link below) an analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average was considered. A sudden and sharp reaction occurred earlier this week. The index returned to the Oversold Trendline and found good support. Is the DJIA completing a Reaccumulation that reaches back to April? If so, a Point & Figure horizontal count study should provide price estimates for the advance. The DJIA has the potential to go from a trendless range bound state to a fresh new uptrend. This is a very interesting juncture for the index. Let's have a look...Power Charting TV: Crypto Currency and the Wyckoff MethodBruce Frasertag:stockcharts.com,2021-07-06:post-220872021-07-24T01:53:26Z2021-07-06T20:04:58Z<p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2021/07/06/febf29e2-37d1-4dd9-bb15-86117ba10132.jpg" style="display: inline; margin: 0px 15px; float: left; width: 399px;">Join special guest Alessio Rutigliano for a discussion of Crypto Currencies and the Wyckoff Method. Alessio has become a foremost expert on trading Crypto. He has very effectively combined vertical bar chart analysis and horizontal Point & Figure (PnF) studies (link to the Power Charting episode is below). Alessio and I will be conducting a workshop on the use of this PnF technique in the crypto markets. PnF is a powerful tool for estimating price objectives for stocks, commodities and indexes. This is also the case for Cryptos, with some modifications. Alessio has produced a tremendous body of work on using PnF for calculating price targets. Join us on Power Charting as Alessio reveals some of the work he has done adapting PnF for the fast moving Crypto markets. </p><div class="embed-responsive embed-responsive-16by9"><iframe class="embed-responsive-item" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/PdDDCNJqroI" allow="accelerometer;autoplay;encrypted-media;gyroscope;picture-in-picture;" allowfullscreen="true" width="640" height="360" frameborder="0"></iframe></div><p><span class="image-caption">Cryptos and the Wyckoff Method. Special Guest: Alessio Rutigliano</span></p><p> </p><p>In the video, the Relative Strength comparative study of the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU) is an intraday analysis. Here is a daily data chart not included in the video, which shows a larger Accumulation structure (yellow shaded box) reaching back to March. </p><p><img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2021/07/06/430e6569-3685-4056-ab30-273043e44aff.jpg" onclick="window.open('https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NDX%3A%24INDU&p=D&b=5&g=0&i=p34286330701&a=985366100')" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">NASDAQ 100 / Dow Jones Industrial Average. Relative Strength Comparative Study</span></p><p>The early-March Selling Climax of the $NDX in relation to the $INDU stopped the decline and began a range-bound condition. Final tests in May and June were followed by a liftoff of the $NDX in comparison to the $INDU and apparent new leadership for the Growth Index. See the video for further discussion of this event.</p><p>Relative strength analysis employing classic Wyckoffian Horizontal Counting technique could yield valuable information about competing asset classes as they rotate in and out of favor.</p><p> <img src="https://d.stockcharts.com/img/articles/2021/07/06/b759c871-d2d6-4163-aa91-057e357c1934.jpg" style="display: block; margin: 0px auto;"></p><p><span class="image-caption">NASDAQ 100 / Dow Jones Industrial Average. Relative Strength PnF Case Study</span></p><p>Here is a Point & Figure estimation (daily data) of how high the Relative Strength trend could climb. Three segments are counted and all of them have higher objectives from current levels. This indicates that growth stock performance leadership is in the early stages of reemerging. The relative strength uptrend that began in June follows an Accumulation type structure (yellow shaded area). The initial PnF objective targets the 44.00 zone where the prior peak formed (red shaded box). A classic place for resistance. Two higher targets are estimated and flagged on the chart. </p><p>All the Best,</p><p>Bruce</p><p>@rdwyckoff</p><p><strong><em>Disclaimer:</em></strong><em> This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.</em></p><p><strong>Announcement</strong></p><p><strong>Special Event: </strong><u>POINT-AND-FIGURE FROM STOCKS TO CRYPTOS</u></p><p>Join Alessio and Me for this live 2-part workshop on July 8th & July 15th from 3pm to 5:30pm PT (recording available). In this new series we will illustrate how to apply this time-tested technique to stocks and cryptocurrencies. <a href="https://www.wyckoffanalytics.com/event/point-and-figure-from-stocks-to-cryptos/" target="_blank">Click here to read more about this event</a>. </p>Join special guest Alessio Rutigliano for a discussion of Crypto Currencies and the Wyckoff Method. Alessio has become a foremost expert on trading Crypto. He has very effectively combined vertical bar chart analysis and horizontal Point & Figure (PnF) studies (link to the Power Charting episode is below). Alessio and I will be conducting a workshop on the use of this PnF technique in the crypto markets. PnF is a powerful tool for estimating price objectives for stocks, commodities and indexes. This is also the case for Cryptos, with some modifications. Alessio has produced a...