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Short-Term Declining Trend - PMO Turns Up for Bonds (TLT)

by Erin Heim

The declining trend channel that formed last week on the SPY is intact; however, price hasn't actually broken down below support. The NDX remains in a rising trend channel. It is the only index on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards holding a PMO BUY signal. That ST PMO BUY signal is not in any jeopardy given the PMO is still rising. However, the other three indexes have declining ST PMOs and will  Read More

Nothing Like A Nuclear Echo - Webinar Skim 2017-01-19

by Greg Schnell

The commodities markets have been relatively calm recently with the execption of the Uranium mining stocks. They went on a tilt-a-whirl last week. It wasn't the change in Presidential leadership that caused it. It was Cameco, the large uranium miner, supplying a statement suggesting analyst estimates were way ahead of where Cameco management sees 2017 results. As we have been following the...  Read More

Home Depot Leads with Flag Breakout and 52-week High

by Arthur Hill

In what could be a good sign for housing and the economy, Home Depot (HD) exceeded its summer highs and hit a 52-week high. Home Depot is an interesting company because can be considered part of the housing industry and the retail industry. These two industries are very important to the consumer discretionary sector and this is the most economically sensitive sector. The chart below shows HD...  Read More

Diversification and Multicollinearity

by Greg Morris

Di-ver-si-fi-ca-tion 1. the act or process of diversifying; state of being diversified. 2. the act or practice of manufacturing a variety of products, investing in a variety of securities, selling a variety of merchandise, etc., so that a failure in or an economic slump affecting one of them will not be disastrous. Relying on Webster doesn't provide much help to investors  Read More

Computer Services Latest Technology Group To Break Out

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, January 20, 2017 Basic materials (XLB, +0.89%) led yet another U.S. stock market rally on Friday as the Dow Jones gained close to 100 points to once again approach what could become its first all-time closing high above 20000.  After Friday's gain, the Dow Jones needs another 173 points, or less than 1%, to clear that milestone.  Aiding that...  Read More

Check Point Breaks Out Of Very Bullish Pattern

by Tom Bowley

My favorite kind of stocks are those that advance and then base for an extended period of time before breaking out.  The consolidation period rids the stock of weak holders, providing a much better foundation for a sustainable rally.  Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP) fits the bill after reacting quite positively to its latest quarterly earnings report, beating Wall Street...  Read More

Dow Stocks in Bear Markets

by Carl Swenlin

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is clearly in a bull market, having made a strong move in November and December  to new, all-time highs and coming within less than a half point of reaching 20,000; however, as I perused the charts of the 30 Dow components I found three stocks that are actually in bear markets. That is only 10% of the the component stocks, so it isn't a big deal, but I...  Read More

10-Year Treasury Yield Is Bouncing Off It's 50-Day Average, As is The Dollar

by John Murphy

The pullback in Treasury yields (coinciding with an oversold bounce in Treasury prices) may have run its course. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) bouncing sharply off its 50-day moving average. The two momentum indicators above Chart 1 are also supportive. The 14-day RSI (green) line is back above the 50 level. The more sensitive  Read More

This Weak Industry Group Approaching Very Bullish Historical Period

by Tom Bowley

There haven't been too many areas of the market that have performed worse than retail stocks over the past month.  While the NASDAQ 100 ($NDX) has jumped to record highs over the past month, weak retail stocks in that index like Dollar Tree (DLTR), Walgreens (WBA), O'Reilly Automotive (ORLY), Tractor Supply (TSCO) and Ross Stores (ROST) are littered among the worst performing NDX stocks.  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook Video

by Arthur Hill

This is a companion video to go with the full written commentary ( here).  I will start out with a review of the weekly performers using the summary  Read More

Stair Step to Profits

by Bruce Fraser

Let's look back at 2016, Wyckoff style. As Wyckoffians, our mission is to sharpen our skills and to gain some ideas about how 2017 could unfold. The past year began with a stiff correction that cascaded into a Selling Climax in January. A classic Accumulation formed between January and March when the large informed interests of the Composite Operator absorbed stock. Once the absorption was...  Read More

5 Boring Uptrends in 5 Exciting Stocks

by Arthur Hill

One would normally not consider Facebook, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon and Microsoft boring. Well, maybe Microsoft. All joking aside, these tech titans are the biggest stocks in the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) and they account for around 40% of the ETF. This means traders or investors in QQQ best follow these five charts closely. These titans also account for around 13% of the S&P 500 SPDR, which is  Read More

Cruise Ships Are Continuing To Make New Customer Highs @Schnellinvestor

by Greg Schnell

Cruise ships seem to be getting more elaborate every year. From water slides high up over the ocean, to real grass top decks and stunning restaurants throughout, the industry is growing in diversity and customer experiences.  Recently, the trends have started to change on some of the cruise line companies charts. Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) and Royal Carribbean Cruise Lines  Read More

Utilities Equal-Weight ETF (RYU) Lights Up with Weekly PMO BUY Signal

by Erin Heim

On Friday, I received a StockCharts Technical Alert in my email inbox letting me know that the Equal-Weight Utilities ETF (RYU) had triggered a new Intermediate-Term Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) BUY signal. I immediately had to check out the weekly chart. There is a clear breakout from  Read More

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Quiet Options Expiration - Bonds Diving Lower

by Erin Heim

Market was mostly flat with the high volume associated with options expiration. The intermediate-term (weekly) PMOs on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards remained unchanged after the weekly charts went final at the close. I'll be reviewing daily and weekly charts in the blog below. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal  Read More

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook - QQQ Leads Bull Market - Ranking the 9 Sectors - Turn in T-yields could affect Staples, Utilities, Gold and Banks - Oil Grinds - Dollar Corrects

by Arthur Hill

Weekly Market Review & Outlook .... All Time Highs Affirm Bull Market .... QQQ Continues to Lead on the Charts .... Small-caps Extend Stall .... Eight of Nine Sectors have Golden Crosses .... Tech, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary Lead .... Finance Breaks mid December low .... Energy Sports a Bullish Wedge .... Staples and Utilities Hit Potential Reversal Zones .... Healthcare Remains...  Read More

A Sure Recipe for Success - or Not!

by John Hopkins

Earnings Season is now in high gear with thousands of companies getting ready to report their numbers over the next several weeks. Whenever earnings season comes around there are clear winners and clear losers with the sole evidence of success or failure being the performance of a stock. For example, Netflix reported its numbers last week and you can see the positive response below: You can see...  Read More

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Some Country ETF's To Watch If The Rest Of The World Starts To Out Perform The US

by Martin Pring

The current status of the US versus the rest of the world Europe Asia Latin America The current status of the US versus the rest of the world Earlier in the week I pointed out that the trend of superior performance by the US against the "rest of the world" was showing signs of tiredness.  However, since no major relative sell signals for the US had yet been given it...  Read More

Tensile Trading ChartPack Update (Q4.2016) 150 Potent Enhancements plus Fidelity's Fresh Quarterly Buys and Sells

by Gatis Roze

Holistic is most commonly heard in reference to skilled medical practitioners who treat the whole person, considering not only the physical symptoms of patients but mental, emotional and social factors as well.  Holistic is also the perfect adjective to describe skilled investors.  They appreciate the fact that the numerous parts of the stock market are intimately interconnected, and...  Read More

Dollar And Gold Appear To Be Reversing Trends At Key Levels

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Thursday, January 20, 2017 The industrial sector (XLI, +0.73%) was the only sector to finish in positive territory as railroads ($DJUSRR) broke out on massive volume Thursday.  CSX Corp (CSX) soared more than 23% after Canadian Pacific's (CP) CEO Hunter Harrison announced he was quitting at CP and had interest in being hired at CSX.  A Morgan...  Read More

Netflix Flashes A New High (NFLX)

by Greg Schnell

Netflix continues to deliver content to homes and profits to investors. After reporting good numbers vs. expectations, Netflix popped up to new highs. It wasn't all scrolling credits for the company as the stock sold off continuously on Thursday after the huge gap to new highs. This is a weekly chart that looks good as long as the stock holds the breakout above $130.  The weekly chart does...  Read More

Webinar Review of Consumer Staples SPDR (XLP)

by Erin Heim

Yesterday during my webinar, I added a "chart spotlight" at the end of the program. It's a new feature that viewers had asked for since I generally go through a review of the major indexes (small and large), DP indicators and the "Big Four" as I call them, Dollar, Gold, Oil and Bonds, so this addition adds a new chart or two each  Read More

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Declining Trend Channel Visible - Bonds Take a Hit

by Erin Heim

With the market traveling mostly sideways, it isn't a surprise that we haven't seen any signal changes on the DecisionPoint Scoreboards since January 5th. I've noticed however, that there is a declining trend channel forming on the SPY within the consolidation zone. Tomorrow is options expiration so we will likely not see volatile price movement, but volume will likely be very high.  Read More

FAST Makes A Quick Move Higher

by Tom Bowley

I wrote about Fastenal (FAST) in this blog just two weeks ago.  This is a stock that had been in a sideways consolidation pattern for many years after a prior uptrend.  So I was looking for the next breakout.  However, when a stock consolidates for years, you want to see the actual breakout before jumping on board.  Otherwise, you could have capital tied up for a long...  Read More

$TSX Continues To Drift Back From The Highs - StockCharts Ratio Charts

by Greg Schnell

Two weeks ago, the $TSX made a big push up to new 52 week highs. The intraday high was 15621. The candles around the high have some interesting traits that should be noted as this might mark a more meaningful top for the next few weeks or months. The market surged above the previous levels of 15400 shown with a red line. The original breakout day saw the $TSX close near the highs of  Read More

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Broad Market Breadth Indicators are Far from Bearish Signals - Using %Above 20-day EMA for Short-term Bullish Setups and Signals

by Arthur Hill

Broad Market Breadth Corrects During Consolidation .... Still Far from Bearish Breadth Signals .... New Highs Shrink, but New Lows have yet to Appear .... Over 70% of Stocks remain above 200-day EMAs .... Identifying Pullbacks with %Above 20-day EMA .... //// ....  The S&P 500 consolidated with a trading range the last five weeks and breadth corrected during this consolidation. The  Read More

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10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD IS BOUNCING OFF ITS 50-DAY AVERAGE -- DOLLAR INDEX ALSO BOUNCES OFF SUPPORT

by John Murphy

10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD BOUNCES OFF 50-DAY AVERAGE ... The pullback in Treasury yields (coinciding with an oversold bounce in Treasury prices) may have run its course. Chart 1 shows the 10-Year Treasury Yield ($TNX) bouncing sharply off its 50-day moving average. The two momentum indicators above Chart 1 are also supportive. The 14-day RSI (green) line  Read More

Consumer Stocks Strengthening To Open 2017

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Wednesday, January 18, 2017 Financials (XLF, +0.83%) were back on track Wednesday as mortgage finance ($DJUSMF), life insurance ($DJUSIL), investment services ($DJUSSB) and banks ($DJUSBK) led the equity charge.  It was a bifurcated day with the Dow Jones retreating, but the S&P 500, NASDAQ and Russell 2000 all finished higher - with the latter two...  Read More

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Market Stays in Trading Channel - Short-Term Indicators on the Rise

by Erin Heim

The market is sleep walking sideways within the same relatively thin trading channel it has been in since the final Trump rally subsided. The so-called Trump rally was unable to bring the SPX, OEX and INDU PMOs into a positive crossover. In fact, their PMOs continue to decline with the exception of the NDX. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review  Read More

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ALUMINUM, COPPER, AND STEEL STOCKS HAVE A STRONG DAY -- LEADERS ARE CENTURY ALUMINUM, SOUTHERN COPPER, NUCOR AND US STEEL

by John Murphy

CENTURY ALUMINUM LEADS THAT GROUP HIGHER... Aluminum stocks are leading a rally in the materials group. Chart 1 shows the Dow Jones US Aluminum Index surging to the highest level in eighteen months. Chart 2 shows Century Aluminum (CENX) looking pretty much the same. Alcoa (AA) is also having a strong day. Copper and steel stocks are also having a  Read More

BroadCom Holds Gap Zone and Resumes Breakout

by Arthur Hill

BroadCom (AVGO) is showing upside leadership again with a flag breakout last week and a 2% surge today. Overall, the stock advanced to a 52-week high in August and then embarked on a long consolidation. A large symmetrical triangle formed as the stock traded flat from September to early December. The bigger trend was clearly up during this consolidation and a consolidation within an uptrend is...  Read More

Tobacco Smokes On Tuesday To Lead Consumer Staples

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Tuesday, January 17, 2017 Money rotated towards defense on Tuesday as our major indices saw a day of profit taking.  The small cap Russell 2000 was hit particularly hard, dropping 1.44%.  But all of the key indices were lower as the banks' failure to break out on heavy volume Friday came back to haunt them yesterday.  The Dow Jones U.S. Banks  Read More

Walgreens Boots Alliance Kicks Up WBA

by Greg Schnell

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) has recently pushed above a breakout level and then pulled back to retest. Today, the stock looks ready to breakout above the previous resistance shown in red again. Thinks looks like an important area to watch. If defensive stocks start to accelerate, this is well positioned to be one of the first to break out. The MACD is bouncing close to the zero line after...  Read More

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Is It Time To Emphasize Overseas Equities?

by Martin Pring

Gauging the trend between the US and the rest of the world Relative performance of the US is largely dependent on the direction of the Dollar Special K is close to a relative sell signal for the US What does "The rest of the world" look like? A few comments on Gold Gauging the trend between the US and the rest of the world Since the depth of the financial crisis there have  Read More

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Trading Channel Traffic Continues - Gold Breaks Out!

by Erin Heim

The market was down slightly today, so no changes to the DecisionPoint Scoreboards. Gold broke out today and GLD gapped up. I'll cover those in the section on Gold near the end of this blog article. The purpose of the DecisionPoint Alert Daily Update is to quickly review the day's action, internal condition, and Trend Model status of the broad market (S&P 500), the nine SPDR  Read More

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Webinar Video - QQQ and its Top Components Lead - 5 Sectors within 2% of 52-week Highs - XLF and XLI Extend Consolidations

by Arthur Hill

Small-caps Pull back after Big Surge .... SPY Stalls Near 52-week High .... QQQ and its Top Components Lead .... Five Sectors within 2% of 52-week Highs .... Consumer Discretionary and Materials Hold Breakouts .... Finance and Industrials Extend High-Level Consolidations .... Healthcare is the Most Challenging Sector .... Utilities and Staples Remains the Laggards .... //// ....  ----  Read More

Is The Market Topping or Just Starting?

by Tom Bowley

Market Recap for Friday, January 13, 2017 Friday may have seemed like a ho-hum kinda day as the Dow Jones actually finished with a loss for the session.  But there was significant strength in both the more aggressive NASDAQ and Russell 2000, not to mention that the four sector leaders were financials (XLF, +0.56%), industrials (XLI, +0.38%), consumer discretionary (XLY...  Read More

Is JNJ the pink elephant in the XLV room?

by Julius de Kempenaer

The Relative Rotation Graph above holds the constituents of the XLV (Health Care) ETF. In this post, I want to follow up on my previous article which pointed at the potential rotation from Financials into Health Care and take a look at the relative rotation of...  Read More

Fewer New Highs, but Even Fewer New Lows

by Arthur Hill

The chart below shows the High-Low Line for the S&P 500, new highs/lows as a histogram, and the S&P 500. Notice that new highs exceeded 50 several times from mid November to mid December. This showed good internal strength because over 10% of stocks in the S&P 500 were hitting new highs. New highs have since dwindled and did not surpass 50 since December 12th. This shows less  Read More

We May See Major Resistance Test On 10 Year Treasury Yield In 2017

by Tom Bowley

Banks threatened another breakout on Friday before stalling and dropping after an early morning surge higher.  Bank of America (BAC) credited higher interest rates for its earnings beat Friday morning and said it was anticipating significantly higher net interest margins in 2017.  So how much higher will the 10 year treasury yield ($TNX) move?  Well.....technically, it's easy for...  Read More