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Blackberry -Harvest Time or Sowing Seeds of Spring Time?

2013-05-25T15:08:45Z

Here is the recent view of BBRY.

This chart will probably gap either way, but the earnings announcement will be on June 28th. It may gap before the earnings.

I would suggest that price action in the low 12's will be a signal that this company goes the way of former greats in the cell phone industry, whereas a break above 17 bodes well.

The pattern suggests indecision on the direction of Blackberry and the dotted line is a more symmetrical pennant but the last touch of the blue solid line made me draw the solid line there. By next week, we may find the blue dotted line gets touched and we bounce off that.

Normally, a pennant is considered a consolidation and continuation pattern, but they can be reversal patterns as well.

The upturn of the 200 DMA and the horizontal action of the 50 DMA is still positive for the stock.

It is interesting how $14 was the first pause of the initial upthrust in late December, and now takes on such an important level on the stock as the pattern reaches towards the apex. It was also the area of the last high in late April 2012 before plummeting.

Looking left on the chart shows an area from Dec 2011 to May of 2012 a little below $13 ($12.46 to 12.80) that was support until the stock collapsed and lost 50% from there in just a few months.

Notice the current volume decline. Very compressed. I removed the MACD and RSI as I did not find the tools demonstrating anything important. At this point, price action looks to be the strongest clue.

Good Trading,

Greg Schnell, CMT

Three Fan Lines Take Shape on the Spot Light Crude Chart

2013-05-24T10:32:09Z

Spot Light Crude ($WTIC) has been quite volatile the last few weeks with two declines from the 97 area and two bounces off the 92 area. It is possible to draw three trend lines extending up from the mid April low. The mid May lows and third fan line mark support in the 92-93 area.

Click this image for a live chart.

How can I sort a Sector PerfChart by Performance?

2013-05-24T09:49:12Z

Chartists can sort a PerfChart by performance by first choosing histogram view in the lower left corner. Once the histogram bars show, hover over the chart area, click the right mouse button and choose “performance sort on” from the options. This will place the strongest security on the left and sort by performance. This makes it easy to separate the winners from the losers. You can remove this option by clicking the right mouse button and choosing “performance sort off”.

Click these images for a live chart

The 10 Essential Fundamentals for Both Car Enthusiasts and Investors

2013-05-23T23:47:55Z

To make a broad generalization, European cars lust after curvy roads. American cars are more about the power, rumble and straight line 0 – 60 speed. There are key parallels between investors and car buffs, but clearly there exist cars for every possible taste, just as there are limitless options of investment methodologies for every investor. Having said that, there are essential commonalities amongst all car enthusiasts and all successful investors without which disequilibrium inevitably results.

The famous Hollywood director Orson Welles was so captivating that it is said he could hold an entire audience in his hand by simply reciting a grocery list. It’s no secret that I’m captivated myself by the power of lists. I’m a “listaholic” of sorts because concise clusters of pithy ideas are relatively easy for me to memorize. When I discover a worthy list, I find that transitioning items from memory and integrating them into my trading methodology simply requires regular practice until they eventually become second nature and part of my trading intuition – which was the objective all along.

So how do I best lubricate the transition from memorizing these pithy ideas and effectively folding them into my daily trading intuition? I’m a car guy, so that’s easy. I use automotive metaphors.

SAFETY FIRST: You wouldn’t buy a car without airbags. As an investor, first take care of protecting your assets with insurance, estate planning, tax strategies and the like before you trade equities. After you begin trading, you should once again put safety first by utilizing proven money management skills and stops.
SERVICE & SUPPORT: I wouldn’t buy a Saab today because the maintenance and support are fading. Despite what some may believe, investing is not a solo gig. You should have the moral support of your family and the intellectual support of your trading circle. A supportive network increases the probability of success whether you are talking trucks or trades.
HONESTY: If you’re 6’5” tall and believe a Miata sports car is the car for you, you’re delusional. As an investor, if you can’t be honest with yourself, you’ll be blind to your weaknesses and investing will be a brief negative passage along the highway of life.
YOUR VISION: You have four teenage kids, you’re working two jobs and you put down a deposit for a new Corvette. Anything wrong with this vision? Think mini-van or SUV. Similarly, investors must do an inventory of their circumstances as well and personalize their trading vision to fit the trading time frame that matches their situation. Ask yourself these kinds of questions: Which markets will I trade? How am I planning to trade? How long do I plan to hold positions? Treat investing like a business.
CONFIGURE YOUR METHODOLOGY: I used to have a Mini Cooper S. They claim that with the number of options they offer, it’s possible to configure over a million different Minis. Investors, too, are offered a smorgasbord that’s much larger in scope, and because of it, they have the power to thoroughly overcomplicate their trading methodology. If it were a car, it would never even start! Focus on clarity and simplicity and you will build a profitable trading system.
SET GOALS: Dream big and motivate yourself. I was inspired to work especially hard last year because I wanted to buy a Porsche. We all have different hot buttons. I stayed engaged emotionally, mentally and physically in the markets, motivated in large part by that goal. True, some days were just work but I know “from whence my passion springs!”
NEGOTIATION & EXECUTION: Here’s the hard part. It’s where the pedal meets the metal, where the rubber meets the road. Can you pull the trigger and do the trade? If you don’t have an action-oriented ability to execute your trades (or your dreams), investing should be farmed out to the professionals.
READ THE MANUAL: These days, one can’t truly enjoy and experience the full potential of a Porsche or a BMW without reading the manual. (Sorry, guys!) Whether you are a car enthusiast or an investor, you must be capable of embracing this new reality. I used to drive a 1971 Volkswagen Beetle. No manual required. Today, investors must continually embrace change, take classes, find mentors, and participate in seminars. In other words, read the manual. You won’t figure out “launch control” without it!
DISCIPLINE & SELF MOTIVATION: Racing school will shock and awe you as to the capabilities of your modern car. To achieve self-mastery on the road or within your brokerage account, you’ll need practice. Consistently applying yourself and pushing from within the framework of high performance routines will result in the stock market mastery you seek. If you maintain your passion for the stock market, your own capabilities over time will awaken that same sense of shock and awe.
DETERMINATION: Cars get tired. Investors get tired, too. Just try not changing the oil in a car for 30,000 miles or ignoring that red light on the dashboard! Traders will have tough days and tough weeks. They’ll have 3-4-5 losses in a row. But then you change the oil, get a tune-up, do whatever you need to do to get re-energized and believe in yourself and your methodology again.

Investing requires determination and faith, as well as all of the nine preceding fundamentals.

Trade well; trade with discipline!

-- Gatis Roze

Lumber Prices Plunge, but Housing Stocks Remain Strong

2013-05-23T12:50:00Z

An interesting divergence is brewing between lumber and housing stocks. Lumber Futures ($LUMBER) fell around 25% the last two months, but the Home Construction iShares (ITB) hit a 52-week high recently. Something may need to give because lumber and housing stocks are positively correlated for the most part.

Click this image for a live chart.

How Do I Create a Moving Average of the Open, High or Low?

2013-05-22T23:02:00Z

Have you wanted to know what the moving average is of a stock's open, high or low? Did you know that StockCharts provides this capability? Below are the steps to take to find the moving average value for the open, high or low.

The Global Markets Firm Up Above The 20 Month MA.

2013-05-22T03:02:21Z

While commodities still seem nestled in the doldrums, recently a few have started to move higher.

But more importantly, the global stock indices are making moves to higher ground looking like a global sustainable bull market is more likely.

At one mid month view in April near the US lows, their were 7 global markets back under the 20 Month MA. Currently, only 2 are. What is more important is that a lot of commodities track the $SSEC (Shanghai) market. The $SSEC has now started to push higher again. This gives me more faith that a bull market is starting up.

As well, the $DAX and the $FTSE have joined America in breaking above the 2007 highs. The $BSE (India) is trying to break through some resistance up around the old highs as well. I thought it might wait until June for the next thrust higher, but it appears these foreign markets are starting to push up in May.

There are still a lot of major markets trapped below resistance but above the 20 Month MA like the $TSX, $AORD, $CAC, $KOSPI, $HSI. But more and more, it looks like this global inflation push could start working through. $WTIC is still trapped inside a range but the oil stocks on the US are moving up and above.

Without a doubt, the push in Europe sees even the Italian and Spanish markets above the 20 Month MA which are not listed above. So Europe is well underway, and now the emerging markets appear to be syncing with the USA. Maybe the commodity countries can get on the train. Currently, the strength of the $USD is holding them back.

Good Trading,

Greg Schnell, CMT.

How Do I Upgrade and Extend My Account At The Same Time?

2013-05-21T17:57:39Z

Would you like to upgrade and extend your account at the same time? Below are the steps to take to complete the upgrade and extension process at the same time.

Solar Stocks Dominate the Scan for Big Volume Gainers

2013-05-21T16:14:08Z

Solar stocks are on the move today and volume is increasing in several names. The image below comes from the “strong volume gainers” scan on the pre-defined scans page. Click any of the headings to sort this table. There are five solar-related stocks making the cut.

Click this image for a live chart.

Oil & Gas Equipment/Services SPDR Surges to 52-week High

2013-05-20T15:29:29Z

Energy related stocks are catching a bid as Spot Light Crude ($WTIC) challenges the $97. The chart below shows the Oil & Gas Equipment/Services SPDR (XES) breaking flag resistance and hitting a 52-week high on Monday. The flag zone now turns into support.

Click this image for a live chart.