4151 - Got movement..... corrections under way

Michael Groom Rank: 80 Followers: 4 Votes: 12 Years Member: 3 Last Update: 27 March 2017, 5:54 Categories: Elliott Wave Analysis
Swing Trading
Cycle Analysis

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Big money is made on the long moves......
PAGE - 9 ----> INTRA-DAY...
PAGE - 2 ----> DOW ...
PAGE - 6 ----> GOLD/OIL ...
PAGE - 4 ----> CCY ...

Please review PAGE 10 (Last) for usage

Principles
1) for up/down trends, the cycle lines must be in the correct form/order
2) use other TA tools to confirm trend change, price targets and probability of success
3) multiple timeframe trend confirmation

Objectives
1) to enable as accurate as possible high probability realtime analysis
2) to get as close as possible to the major and minor turns
3) to construct analysis based on sound known TA principles
4) to reduce the probability of individual trade failure and increase the probability of individual trade success

Tools Used
a) candlesticks
b) traditional pattern recognition
c) elliottwave
d) cycles (price and time)
e) intermarket relationships
f) specific indicator behaviour
g) trendlines, support and resistance

Disclaimer: Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed.
Analysis is subjective and can change without notice. You accept full responsibility for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold the provider(s) of this information harmless in any and all ways.
Futures, options, CFD trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.

Less

010 Welcome to KnowledgePaysTheBestInterest.......

100 Summary

MACRO OVERVIEW
All markets are connected more so to the USD and US bond market. With the US at the centre and Non-US at the peripheral in 2 levels, Developed and Emerging Markets.
As the USB approaches the end of it 34+ bull run with historical 5000 year lows in rates. We have yet to feel the impact of the climax and reversal of this process. Which may help drive capital into US equity away from bonds.

World aggregate demand is shrinking, Currencies are being moved through negative interest rates. These policies will move capital to assets which have better returns and may be more risk.

It is the behaviour of the USD that will shape the behaviour of capital movements between domestic and international assets classes and industry sectors.
Analysing the relationships will guide the behaviour and movements.

141 $INDU - 15 min

142 - Dow $INDU - Weekly

ELECTION SPECIAL ANALYSIS
07-NOV - bounce occurred...this could be a wave C of w2 before the wave down... ...this path is not yet confirmed, would need to break the old high 18668 to invalidate this wave count/path

151 $USD - Monthly

Quote...
I know from experience that nobody can give me a tip or a series of tips that will make more money for me than my own judgement.
Jesse Livermore

ANALYSIS
21MAR17- cycle indicators still strongly +ve however significant divergences have formed.. probability in wC of 4.. there are other alternatives counts wA down. Caution is warranted as the top is near or has occurred.
28-OCT - an alternative scenario... still in w4 correction, wB of 4...with resistance about 100 and wC target of 92....then the big move higher to complete 3 of 5.
21-OCT - DXY moved up, needs to close above 100.6 to indicate higher price... wave appears in 3-3-5 (corrective) structure not a clear 5 wave impulsive up, alternative is a B or D triangle wave
01-OCT - 4 months sideways, mkt waiting direction
22-AUG - trend still down, All macd, rsi cycle indicators in correct form and pointing down, minor short term histos -ve, price below short MAs..ew..w5ofC likely in progress, target 87-91...ish, must not break 84, else something else
10-AUG - a break above 98 would likely confirm wave 3 of 5 is under way... currently the DXY is in wait mode
31-JUL - month end close was weak, 2 mth doji indicating indecision, cycle indicators +ve but pointing down... possible 4w end and final 5 wave lower before moving higher
28-JUL - wave 5 of 3 under way, cycle indicators turning up and positive
30-JUN - DXY may have completed it 25mth long wave 4 and is basinig ready to move higher
06-JUN - main trend still down, ew..appears wave 5 is under way...all rsi/macd cycle indicators pointing down
01-MAY - removed Alt as n/a... DXY trend still down... EW position, overall w4 appears to be a zigzag since w2 was a flat therfore DXY in final wC.... and in C... a small w(4) correction completed,
likely in w5 of 3, all rsi/macd cycle indicators pointing down, possible high prob targets 50% (89.9), 62% (87.4)... refer lower timeframes for more likely targets
02-APR - short/medium trends down, all cycle indicators are above zero line (long ter

152 $USD - Weekly

Quote....
'To be a good trader, you need to trade with your eyes open, recognize real trends and turns, and not waste time or energy on regrets and wishful thinking.'
Alexander Elder

ANALYSIS
21MAR17-cycle indicators are in a down trend +ve but weakening, probability in wC of 4 is high... divergences are clearly forming
28-OCT - notated for alterative scenario... still in w4 correction, wB of 4...wC of B showing 4w not completed, with resistance about 100 then a fast wC to target of 92...50%... then the big move higher to complete 3 of 5.
21-OCT - DXY wave appears in 3-3-5 (corrective) structure possibly a B or D triangle wave... but this wave appears to be a C wave in 3 of 5 so more movement upside.. doji forming... possibly peak on vote then clear move
13-SEP - price below MAs, DXY in weak position, cycle indicators in negative form and pointing down.
10-AUG - move does not have the correct form... not impulsive... look at move from JUN14-APR15->impulsive
31-JUL - month end close was weak, 2 mth doji indicating indecision, cycle indicators mixed... possible 4w end and final 5 wave lower before moving higher
28-JUL - wave 5 of 3 under way, cycle indicators turning up and positive
06-JUN - wave 4 correction is over...main trend still down, ew..appears wave 5 is under way...all rsi/macd cycle indicators negative and pointing down.. expect retest of support
22-MAY - possible turn in progress, if so then w1 of 5 of 3 is under way....long candle, strong move up, expect retracement... watch for breaking lower to w5 of C, if not the trend has turned, higher lows etc,
08-MAY - bouncing at support, ew.. w5 of C or 3 likely completed, cycle indicators turning up,
25-APR - the trend is still down, however weakening as it approaches support and the FED meeting this week. Caution is advised as many related markets are being affected by $ strength..... await FED market diredtion
02-APR - trend is down, all cycle indicators are below zero line, in correct negative form and pointing down and appear t

153 $USD - Daily

Quote...
I know from experience that nobody can give me a tip or a series of tips that will make more money for me than my own judgement.
Jesse Livermore

ANALYSIS
21MAR17-wave formation appears corrective... all cycle indicators are -ve but starting to turn up...note caution as both higher timeframes trend are down...
28-OCT - divergences warning.....w3of5 of C appears complete... w4 correction under way..
21-OCT - wave from May appears more clearly as a 3-3-5 structure... and appears to be a C wave in 3 of 5 so more movement upside.. EW suggesting a w4 correction before final high then reversal... requires confirmation
- cycle indicators positive, weakening but pointing higher
13-SEP - price below MAs, DXY in weak position, cycle indicators in negative form and pointing down
31-JUL - big strong drop, cycle indicators +ve but pointing down histos negative... possible 4w end and final 5 wave lower before moving higher
28-JUL - correction under way, cycle indicators positive, however short term correcting
22-MAY - long candle, hammer, appears to be 5 waves therefore expect correction to 9446-9350 area, appears to have turned... monitor for price action confirmation
12-MAY - trend still down, would need to break above 9525 to turn daily and weekly trend up.. ew, likely in w(b) down should not go below 9200, so in correction state.. await market direction for next trend
08-MAY - long candle hammer with follow through right at support... 2 paths.. this is w4 or C and new up trend started... cycle indicators turning up in correct form
25-APR - dollar is bouncing and showing divergences.. expect correction for $ related markets
30-MAR - dollar reversed and is continuing main down trend...cycle indicators still negative and in correct form... likely position wave 5.. target 93 ish... support previous 2 aug/oct lows
26-MAR - not impulsive, cycle indicators still negative
18-MAR - consolidation in progress, possible minor wave 4 of 3, trend still down
12-MAR - gapped closed, trend lower, watch activity p

180 $UST10Y-$UST2Y - Monthly

ANALYSIS
28-OCT - all rates moved up across the curve...trend still down... 10-2 yr spread widening....
13-SEP - short term cycle indicators turning up, indicating higher rates, spread needs to widen to indicate trend turn
10-AUG - trend still down, short term cycles showing signs of slowing.... the chart still predicating a recession next year... and likely more negative rates
28-JUL - main trend still down, ..indicators show no sign of turning or bottoming... getting closer to recession... shows money moving into bonds (negative rates forcing money to move)
06-JUN - main trend still down, ..all rsi/macd cycle indicators negative and pointing down
08-MAY - trend still down, divergence in rsi cycle indicator, macd cycle indicator short/medium turning up.... monitor for trend change
02-APR - trend is down, all cycle indicators are below zero line, in correct negative form and pointing down... short/medium weakening.. long term strong-ish
21-MAR - bouncing, trend still down
03-MAR - closed at lowest level since 2008, and cycle indicators trending down strongly, there may be a short term reaction
06-FEB - trend still down, spread narrowing, heading to recession, policy will loosen to avoid recession, more negative interest rates and some for of qe
16-JAN - trend whilst down appears to be loosing momentum, divergences may occur, watch EOM close
04-JAN - The 2-10yr spread is heading lower, indicating a flattening of the yield curve, note that recessionary influences start occurring approx. 0.25 spread suggesting a slowing of the US economy

184 US Yield Curve

ANALYSIS
28-OCT - all rates moved up across the curve...trend still down... 10-2 yr spread widening....
13-SEP - long rates moving higher faster than short rates
02-APR - money moving into bonds, 2/10yr spread narrowing
19-FEB - shows yield curve is flattening, indicating global recession approaching

189 20 Year Treasury Bond ETF

INDEX
- PAGE 1 : US dollar and Market Charts
- PAGE 2 : equity indexes selected US
- PAGE 3 : equity indexes selected non US
- PAGE 4 : currencies selected major
- PAGE 5 : currencies selected major
- PAGE 6 : commodities selected
- PAGE 9 : Intra-Day charts
- PAGE 10 : how to read these charts

ANALYSIS
21MAR17-cycle indicators are -ve but trending higher in what appears to be a corrective wave
21-OCT - appears 3 of 5 completed (high macd, rsi) and w4 underway.. start watching for final w5 higher on divergence... weak volume and EW count etc
31-JUL - main trend still up, ..indicators show no sign of topping... shows money moving into bonds (negative rates forcing money to move)... end of 30+ year bull mkt is it close by????
08-MAY - trend still up, w4 likely completed.. money still moving into bonds... cycle indicators positive and up
25-APR - possible wave 4 in progress..... cannot go below 123... else something else is happening
02-APR - after correction money moving into bonds, spread narrowing.. all cycle indicators pointing up in correct form
26-MAR - trend still up
12-MAR - two possibilities, in corrective wave or impulse wave, waiting confirmation.... above shows money moving to equities, final 30yr top not quite in yet
03-MAR - trend still up, however price action indicates a correction in progress, possible wave 4?
19-FEB - price behaviour indicates this is a top (short term?) shooting star, harami, expect retracement then final top
12-FEB - indicators peaked, weekly shooting star, likely peaked, short term correction, then likely final wave 5
06-FEB - uptrend min. target achieved to B wave, may go higher, as appears to be C wave
01-FEB - approaching old top, will get resistance review carefully
22-JAN - has follow through, indicators in correct order
16-JAN - Tall candle (watch for follow through) can be weak....all indicators strongly up in correct form and increasing
11-JAN - Kicker candle signal (strong), all indicators in correct form, trending up..... showing money movong

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