1 - Options Trades as Long Term Investments
! * ..VIX - w/ SPX, VXX & XIV - Volatility taking off
*** Caution Ahead: April 10, 2017 -- The Volatility Futures have gone inverted ( 'backwardation'). April VIX is trading higher than May VIX futures & the spread is increasing.
VVIX (30-day implied volatility of options on VIX futures) is almost 100% (and going higher); nearer term VIX I.V. is well over 100%.
** The big boys are definitely positioning for risk ahead: They're buying lots of SPX puts, VIX futures and VIX options. ***
! * .VIX - 2 Hour
! * UVXY - 2 hour Candlesticks, 1024
! *$SPX - 1 hour, Correlations: Stocks, Bonds, Yen, Dollar, Gold, Oil. Elder Impulse
2016-2017: Selling Option Premium in Futures: Gold (/GC); Bonds (/ZB); Crude Oil (/CL); S&P's (/ES).
Selling Strangles, Puts & Calls -- Managing the Risk with Delta Hedging.
April12, 2017 - Volatility has been spiking recently. Safe-haven assets; Gold, Bonds, Yen are rallying.
! *$SPX - 10 minute - correlations
! *$VVIX - Daily; 'VIX of the VIX' -- implied volatility of VIX Options
$VIX measures the implied volatility of options on the SPX index
$VVIX (this chart) measures the implied volatility of options on the VIX index - (these are priced off /VX futures).
When this is high people are buying protection with VIX options.
11/18: When Volatility is LOW, I'm buying SPX Calendar Spreads (Delta .40, short 30 day/long 60 day)
exit @ +10%.
! - $ .NYAD - NYSE Advance-Decline Line 'Slo Sto 60' signal; McClellan Oscillator
**Slow Stocastic, 60 period: this is a great signal for when to lower risk or add risk in a portfolio. **
4/1/17: Market Breadth is still strongly positive. Holding Longs
! - $NYSI - .Summation Index: 'Hedge core portfolio when breadth gets weak'
Nov 21st - Breadth is Strengthening
Oct 28th - HEDGE signal fired
Oct 26th - Breadth is Weakening.
Oct 27th - sold some SPX calls
'The Summation Index is a breadth indicator based on Net Advances (advancing issues less declining issues).
When market breadth turns down (declining stocks are increasing relative to advancing stocks), it's a good time to lower risk.
'Everyone Is A Closet Technician' by Josh Brown: nice editorial on TA.
! - $NYSI - Hedge Timing: NYSE Summation Index, McClellan Osc'l below
Measures market breadth: Watch Zero Line for hedges.
Hedge portfolio when Summation Index is below Zero
'The Summation Index is a breadth indicator based on Net Advances (advancing issues less declining issues). The Summation Index is simply a running total of the McClellan Oscillator values. Even though it is called a Summation Index, the indicator is really an oscillator that fluctuates above and below the zero line.'
! - $SPX - 7 years, Weekly- BreakPointTrades.com
July/August 2016: We have a Monthly volatility squeeze breaking to the upside: