1 - Options Trades as Long Term Investments

Martin Mansour Rank: 43 Followers: 17 Votes: 3 Years Member: 12 Last Update: 26 May 2017, 20:44 Categories: Trade Reporting
Market Breadth Analysis

Multi-Part Options Trades. My personal positions & investments.
Get a Price Discount & Reduce Risk -- by combining options and selling some premium.
Options Income Trades - Short Strangles on SPX (/ES futures) when volatility spikes; Lately have been selling premium in the Bond Futures (ZB), Gold (GC) & Oil (CL) because they're less correlated to stocks.
Market Breadth: McClellan Oscillator, Summation Index; $VIX , Put-Call Ratio, Advance-Decline, $TICK, $TRIN.
** FUTURES -- selling premium (short options for income) in Bonds ZB: and Crude Oil CL; some tail-risk hedges are in place.
*** Hedging: May 15: sold calls in ES; May 16: bought puts in ES (S&P 500 futures).
April 24th, overnight: Closed my portfolio hedges in /ES futures. VIX crush after the French election.
**Recent Trades:
Tues May 9th: Did a pairs trade: long IWM (517 sh), short SPY (300 sh) @ net credit $305. Exit @ limit $500 net credit.


! * ..VIX - w/ SPX, VXX & XIV - Volatility taking off

May 16th: overnight the VIX is up; SPX futures are down; BONDS are up. Hedging a little bit.

April 24th: closed my portfolio hedges overnight. Big VIX crush and trendline break.

*** Caution Ahead: April 10, 2017 -- The Volatility Futures have gone inverted ( 'backwardation'). April VIX is trading higher than May VIX futures & the spread is increasing.
VVIX (30-day implied volatility of options on VIX futures) is almost 100% (and going higher); nearer term VIX I.V. is well over 100%.
** The big boys are definitely positioning for risk ahead: They're buying lots of SPX puts, VIX futures and VIX options. ***

! * .VIX - 2 Hour

! * UVXY - 2 hour Candlesticks, 1024

! *$SPX - 1 hour, Correlations: Stocks, Bonds, Yen, Dollar, Gold, Oil. Elder Impulse

2016-2017: Selling Option Premium in Futures: Gold (/GC); Bonds (/ZB); Crude Oil (/CL); S&P's (/ES).
Selling Strangles, Puts & Calls -- Managing the Risk with Delta Hedging.

April12, 2017 - Volatility has been spiking recently. Safe-haven assets; Gold, Bonds, Yen are rallying.

! *$SPX - 10 minute - correlations

! *$VVIX - Daily; 'VIX of the VIX' -- implied volatility of VIX Options

$VIX measures the implied volatility of options on the SPX index

$VVIX (this chart) measures the implied volatility of options on the VIX index - (these are priced off /VX futures).
When this is high people are buying protection with VIX options.

11/18: When Volatility is LOW, I'm buying SPX Calendar Spreads (Delta .40, short 30 day/long 60 day)
exit @ +10%.

! - $ .NYAD - NYSE Advance-Decline Line 'Slo Sto 60' signal; McClellan Oscillator

**Slow Stocastic, 60 period: this is a great signal for when to lower risk or add risk in a portfolio. **
4/1/17: Market Breadth is still strongly positive. Holding Longs

! - $NYSI - .Summation Index: 'Hedge core portfolio when breadth gets weak'

Nov 21st - Breadth is Strengthening

'The Summation Index is a breadth indicator based on Net Advances (advancing issues less declining issues).
When market breadth turns down (declining stocks are increasing relative to advancing stocks), it's a good time to lower risk.
'Everyone Is A Closet Technician' by Josh Brown: nice editorial on TA.

! - $NYSI - Hedge Timing: NYSE Summation Index, McClellan Osc'l below

Measures market breadth: Watch Zero Line for hedges.
Hedge portfolio when Summation Index is below Zero
'The Summation Index is a breadth indicator based on Net Advances (advancing issues less declining issues). The Summation Index is simply a running total of the McClellan Oscillator values. Even though it is called a Summation Index, the indicator is really an oscillator that fluctuates above and below the zero line.'

! - $SPX - 7 years, Weekly- BreakPointTrades.com

July/August 2016: We have a Monthly volatility squeeze breaking to the upside:

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