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01. Elliott wave analysis - 30 days

03a. Elliott wave analysis - 1 year - Bearish count

For a clearer presentation of my chart, I have standardized my wave labeling as follow:
- Grand super cycle = [III] or [A] in dark pink (upper case)
- Super cycle = (III) or (A) in fluo green (upper case)
- Cycle wave = IV or A in black (upper case)
- Primary wave = [2] or [a] in green
- Intermediate wave = (1) or (a) in blue
- Minor wave = 1 or a in red
- Minute wave = '1' or 'a' in black
- Minuette wave = i or a in pink
- Sub minuette wave = 'i' or 'a' in dark pink

03b. Elliott wave analysis - 1 year - Bullish count

07. Elliott wave analysis - 3 years weekly ($COMPQ)

9/29: If EW is correct on long term (it is correct on short/medium term), than we have probably finished a cycle bull rally within a super cycle bear market.

Wave A was from March 2000 to Oct 2002 and the Nasdaq loses -78.4%.

Wave B was from Oct 2002 to Sep 2003 and the Nasdaq wins +72.6% or 0.91 * A%.

Wave C targets are:
1. 1.000 * A% = 413
2. 1.090 * A% = 278
3. 1.146 * A% = 194

09. Elliott wave analysis - 10 years monthly ($COMPQ)

09a. Simple trading system

10. Short term analysis - 30 days hourly ($COMPQ)

11a. Support and resistance waves

Some theory on pivot dates:
1. The precision of a pivot date is +/- 1 or 2 trading days.
2. When there is a pivot date, you cannot say for sure in advance if it will be a top or a bottom.
3. All pivot dates doesn't work as reversal. Some couldn't work or could work as an intensification point of the current trend.

11b. Intermediate trend reversal tracker - 12 months daily ($COMPQ)

As you know, I'm studying the top & bottom formation. I use all the tips & tricks I learned there.

The aim of this chart is to track a intermediate term reversal.

I indicate also my valuation of short, intermediate and long term trend.

For short term trend, I use MA 5 & MA 10.
1. If MA 5 > MA 10 and trending up and greater than yesterday, it is BULLISH.
2. If (MA 5 is declining but > MA 10) or (MA5 is rising but < MA10), it is NEUTRAL.
3. If MA 5 < MA10 and trending lower and lower than yesterday, it is BEARISH.

For intermediate term, take MA 20 and 50 and for long term, take MA 100 and 250 instead of MA 5 and 10.

A more dynamic trader can use EMA instead of MA.

Other tips:
1. Watch reaction on resistance, reaction on MA 20, 50, 100 & 200 and position relatively to BB.
2. RSI: divergence, break of trendline (above / below 50), rebound around 50 and level.
3. PPO: divergence, break of trendline and level.
4. ADX: level (max recorded was 46 and min 11) and cross of DI+/DI-.
5. Volume: trend line and level.

The position is buy, sell or cash (when the market does not run as expected). It is for an investment perspective and not for day trading. A buy or sell position should be hold during several months and generate up to five trades per year.

12. $COMPQ - P&F short term

2/4: Despite the strong rally since 1/25, there is no new BUY signal on this short term P&F chart! It would require a move up to 2109.5 or 2120 to have one. This leaves the door open to the eventuality to retest and may be break down of the January low. By that way, the Nasdaq could create a strong divergence and make a strong bottom.
1/4: Double bottom breakdown. A correction from Oct low and may be of Aug low is underway. A retracement of 50% can be expected.
12/28: Triple top breakout on short term and double top breakout on intermediate term. It must be followed by a strong follow up to be confirmed. $NDX doesn't confirm today those bullish breakouts.