Picture of Power: Price Momentum Map Syntax
0000 ^^^ Map Syntax ^^^
In Map Syntax land, we care about
VIOLENT price action and optimizing it. Thats it. Simple Simon
02/02 (Long Bias) GOOGL Re-Intro
01/29: (Long Bias) FB
01/28: (Long Bias) TRXC
Price action goes into Map Syntax, answers come out. Listen to your MAPS.
When you master your craft (trading system) and can execute flawlessly - There is a price you pay - Work (trading) becomes boring.
However, the financial rewards become astronomical, just ask Tiger Woods or Roger Federer. ....And when you ask them how
they MASTERED THEIR 'CRAFT', they will tell you, it isnt the mechanics or system of their game that takes them to the top, but rather,
the six inches of space between their ears that they have learned to manage and master. Trading is no different. ~
0000 TSLA 2013 - Case Study - 'Model Analysis'
In my opinion, trading momentum is for the investor that wants to get paid right now. It is nothing more then participating in a trend. However,
momentum investing is 'NOT' a good 'risk/reward' trade. In fact it is risky because you are betting on other investors to keep buying in the face
of higher prices by chasing prices. We are trying to profit from investors' fear of 'MISSING THE MOVE'. However, you can manage this
risk well. How? Because you can always sell (if your wrong).
0001 ..UVXY Weekly
12/19: UVXY is
NOT like a stock - the price of UVXY is
NOT driven by supply and demand. The instrument uses the two
nearest to expiration
VIX futures contracts. EVERY DAY the index specifies a new mix of VIX futures in that portfolio; futures to generate 2x the return of the underlying.
This EVERY DAY ROLL works AGAINST us when fear subsides. (aka CONTANGO ravage). Short UVXY AFTER big rallies for this reason.
However, IF the MACRO 'gives way' with AUTHORITY (emphasize AUTHORITY) against the backdrop of
1) depreciating COMMODITY prices (namely oil) and high yield bonds, (3.5 trillion $s tied to energy debt globally. How much of it is a bust?)
2) the eventual wave of DIVIDEND CUTS & BANKRUPTCIES in commodity related equities. 85% of ALL energy related stocks will go sub $10
3) rising INTEREST RATES (namely LIBOR) and an increasing TED Spread
4) RAINBOW OF DEATH price pattern in the SP500 and most of the other important indices,
5) AAPL [12/18: 106.03] crashing; major H/S Top & Bear Wedge technical pattern. L/T trend line at $80 (some time in 2016)
6) CHINA STOCK MARKET crashing and CHINA CREDIT CYCLE CRUNCH: 35 trillion in debt (dollar terms) with a 10% default = 3.5 trillion bust.
7) CURRENCY Wars: The race to devalue currencies to boost exports at the expense of everyone else.
8) BLACK SWAN: the boogie man (problem) we are not aware of yet. Yipes! (this is by far the biggest thing to fear)
UVXY will provide some VIOLENT profiteering to the long side. Follow RULES OF ENGAGEMENT.
My penchant for RISING Volatility ($VIX, VXX, UVXY) is NOT a reason to avoid going long an individual stock (MICRO).
Many stocks have price patterns for rising prices. A VIX explosion would be a HEADWIND for sure, but that does not mean every
stock goes down.
Alphabet A target raised to $940 at MKM Partners -- Mobile search could accelerate growth for extended period. ($764) 11/11
Google target raised to $781 from $730 at Citigroup (622.36) 9/24
Google A target raised to $847 from $720 at JMP Securities 9/21
Goldman Sachs upgraded Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) from Neutral and added the stock to its Conviction Buy List.
Its price target was raised $800, suggesting potential return of 31%. 8/26
0003 SJB, UVXY, LIBOR, TED Spread - IMPORTANT Chart Driving the Stock Market.
High Yield (Junk) Bonds are the most recent asset driving equity markets at the moment. Chart above helps to show that relationship.
SJB is the 2x BEAR ETF/N for High Yield (note the BULLISH price pattern). Below SJB is UVXY, LIBOR, TED Spread and the SP500.
If things do get very bearish for High Yield, I suspect UVXY (39.81) would be the instrument to deliver the biggest % gain on the long side.
If you take risk, as always Follow RULES OF ENGAGEMENT.
The market condition is oversold in relation to the historical range of some of our primary indicators, but these indicators will
FURTHER DECLINE if that is where prices are headed. In a BULL MARKET, oversold readings can be interpreted to mean that internal compression is
building up that will provide the power for the next big rally; however, we are in a BEAR MARKET, and, under those conditions, OVERSOLD READINGS
IMPLY PROBABLE WEAKNESS that could exacerbate continued selling. If we do get a bounce, I will view it as being a counter trend rally, subject to
immediate reversal. ~ Carl Swenlin 1/17 DecisionPoint blog post
0008 CIRCLES OF STIMULUS - Market Timing & Price Optimization.
Two times a day, Wall street delivers THRUST, BUST or STALL.
Use those KEY DECISION TIMES to identify and time THRUST as well as pick an ideal time to book gains or cut losses.
[NOTE: This is not day trading.]
MONEY MGMT = Position Size, Timing the Entry, Cutting Losses & Booking Gains
- One of the traders most important tools is Money Mgmt
- The worlds best traders recognize it as their most important key to success - NOT THE TRADING SYSTEM