101AAAXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX The Truman Show XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXAAA101

Stefan Bosmans Rank: 168 Followers: 2 Votes: 0 Years Member: 7 Last Update: 19 April 2014, 7:20 Categories: Trend Analysis
Commodities
Ratio Analysis

Charts don't lie, you can trust them more than you can trust the media 'MOPE' (Managment Of Economic Perspective).

Charts breathe, they do dirty tricks but if you listen carefully with lots of humility, they will tell you... (Updated almost every day)

Gold is the sweat of the sun, Silver is the tears of the moon.

L'analyse technique observe ce qui est, ce que le marche fait. L'analyse fondamentale observe ce qui devrait etre, mon travail est de reconcilier les 2.

Bienvenus, a bord de ce qui va devenir le Bull Market le plus SPECTACULAIRE que l'humanite ai pu voir jusqu'ici.

Welcome aboard !!! >> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1GAKOLOnfV4&feature=related

The chinese word for bank means 'storage of silver' and they like to save. They also remember what happened to their silver during the Opium Wars...

>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMw_kEtXzjU

Less

1000 The Long Term SILVER chart, with Gold, Copper, Oil, Natgas & the gold/silver ratio

The single most powerful force in all of nature is survival. Above all, survival of one's body, and then of the species.

By extension, this involves protection of savings, the fruits of one's toil, and the expectation that there will be a reward
for forgoing immediate consumption and gratification. Just as squirrels collect acorns which may sustain them and ensure
their survival in the winter, so humans will, if they can, save for enhanced well-being in the future.
The medium in which they hold their savings is crucially important: they will not rationally choose a vehicle which is
vulnerable to erosion or worse, disappearance.

Here, the significance of gold (and silver) falls into place. Consider its characteristics:

It is rare, and its quantity is limited. The entire amount extracted from the ground in all of history amounts to 165,000 metric tons.
This is equivalent to a cube 20 meters long/deep/wide.
It is difficult and expensive to find, mine, and bring to the surface. It is therefore subject to only small and slow incremental supply.
It is indestructible, homogeneous, and easily reconstituted if diluted or broken up.
It is compact, and therefore permits transportation of a high value in a relatively small space.
It is the only universally used asset that can be instantly converted to cash (even by the world's central banks) that is not someone
else's liability. And, of crucial importance, it is anonymous.

Not one of these attributes is unique to gold. What makes gold unique is that it is the only form of money which combines all of them.

Sous les graphiques suivants >> un extrait d'une bonne interview de Doug Casey et quelques chiffres et nombres interessants pour ce rendre compte du POTENTIEL et des echelles...

En page 2 >> un ZOOM (Short Term Charts) & quelques conseils concernant les MODALITES PRATIQUES.

1001 The Mid Term US 'Big Picture' >> The 10y Int. rate, the $ & the S&P500

It's an unfortunate historical anomaly that people think about the paper in their wallets as money. The dollar is, technically, a currency.
A currency is a government substitute for money. Gold and silver is money.

It's hard to exchange things people don't want, and some things don't store value well. Over thousands of years, the precious metals have
emerged as the best form of money. Gold and silver both, though primarily gold.

There are very good reasons for this, and they are not new reasons. Aristotle defined five reasons why gold is money in the fourth century BC
(which may only have been the first time it was put down on paper). Those five reasons are as valid today as they were then.

A good form of money must be: durable, divisible, consistent, convenient, and have value in and of itself. Can you elaborate on that?
Yes, and from them, we can draw inferences that will help us anticipate the fate of the dollar and the other paper currencies...

First, let's take DURABLE. That's pretty obvious. You can't have your money disintegrating in your pockets or bank vaults.
That's why we don't use wheat for money; it can rot, be eaten by insects, and so on. It doesn't last.

DIVISIBLE. Again, obvious. It's why we don't use diamonds for money, nor artwork. You can't split them into pieces without destroying the value of the whole.
If I paid for a new Ford GT with the Mona Lisa, what would be my change? A small canvas by Picasso?

CONSISTENT. The lack of consistency is why we don't use real estate as money. One piece is always different from another piece.

CONVENIENT. That's why we don't use, for instance, other metals like lead, or even copper. The coins would have to be too huge to handle easily to be of sufficient value.

VALUE of itself. The lack here is why you shouldn't use paper as money.

1002 Ishares Silver Trust >> paper silver...

Actually, there's a sixth reason Aristotle should have mentioned, but it wasn't relevant in his age, because nobody would have thought of it?

It can't be created out of thin air. Right. Not even the kings and emperors who clipped and diluted coins would have dared imagine
that they could get away with trying to use something essentially worthless as money.

It's not a gold bug religion, nor a barbaric superstition. It's simply common sense. Gold and silver are particularly good for use as money,
just as aluminum is particularly good for making aircraft, steel is good for the structures of buildings, uranium is good for fueling nuclear
power plants, and paper is good for making books. Not money...

If you try to make airplanes out of lead, or money out of paper, you're in for a crash.

That gold is money is simply the result of the market process, seeking optimum means of storing value and making exchanges.

But it's not something that suits governments, because paper money is an excellent means for governments to tax people indirectly,
surreptitiously, through inflation. That's one reason central bankers love paper money, but also, phony economic theories,
like those of John Maynard Keynes, hold that the government not only can but should meddle with the economy, and the ability to
print paper money gives them a means to do that. In today's world, not only do people around the world take it for granted that paper
is money, but that it should be so.

But it's all nonsense. It's one reason for taking a gloomy view of humanity -- people will believe almost any kind of claptrap, if the story is
retailed by those in authority.

After the current system collapses, as every paper money system in the past has collapsed, some form of money will have to replace it,
and it's almost certainly going to be gold.

1003 Global Silver Miners >> A tracker for the silver miners

We spoke earlier about inflation and the likelihood of the U.S. government printing its way out of debt. Do you see a point in time where
the United States or even other governments will go back to the gold standard?

It's both essential, and inevitable. That's because they have no reason to trust one another. They need a medium of exchange and a store
of value that's not faith-based. All the other governments of the world know that the U.S. is bankrupt and the dollar is nothing but a floating
abstraction. Why should they hold billions or in some cases trillions of these things on their balance sheets?

They're going to go back to gold because it's the only financial asset that's not simultaneously somebody else's liability.

It's not because gold is magic in any way. It's just because it has characteristics that among the 92 naturally occurring elements make it
uniquely well suited for use as money. It's durable. It's divisible. It's convenient. It's consistent. It has use value in and of itself.
And it can't be created out of thin air by some government. It's a better combination of those things than any of the 92 elements.
It's infinitely better than paper. So yes, I think they'll go back to gold within this generation.

You were speaking of buying things online. Most people today don't even use paper bills. We do everything electronically in terms
of banking. Aren't those properties of gold that you described irrelevant in the electronic era?

To the contrary. Gold is an asset. You can put it in your bank account and transfer it. You can buy and sell it electronically.
The fact that it can be transferred electronically today makes it a better money than ever before. So no, not at all, gold is quite relevant.
It's not in any way an anachronism. I pity fools like Bernanke and Geithner who don't understand that.
If they totally destroy the dollar, they may end up hung by their heels from a lamp

1004 Silvercorp >> the first of my 5 favorite silver miners

SILVERCORP (01/09/2013 update) --- 171m ful. dil. shares --- No hedging --- No L.T. debt --- 92m cash & S.T.Inv --- 2,6% div. yield (next >> in 30/09 & payday 21/10 >> 2,5 cents)

FINANCIAL Metrics ---------- 2008 ---------- 2009 ---------- 2010 ---------- 2011 ---------- 2012 -------- 2013 (Silvercorp's year ends March 31st)

Sales ------------------------------ 108m --------- 83,5m -------- 107m --------- 167m --------- 238m ------- 182m

Cash Cost ($/oz) -------------- (-11) ---------- (-2,77) -------- (-6,22) -------- (-6,80) ------- (-3,25) ------- 0,5

Earnings -------------------------- 60m ----------- (-16m) -------- 38,5m -------- 69m ---------- 74m --------- 27,2m

Earnings/Share ----------------- 40c ----------- (-11c) ---------- 24c ------------ 41c ----------- 43c --------- 16c

Nbr shares outstanding ----- 148m ---------- 152m --------- 162m -------- 168m --------- 172m ------- 171m

PRODUCTION History ------ 4,1m ------------ 4,3m --------- 4,7m --------- 5,5m ---------- 6,1m -------- 5,8m oz Ag

Composition: 69%Ag - 5%Au - 23%Pb - 3%Zn. ----- Ying Grade: 226g/t Ag * 3,5%Pb * 1,2%Zn // BYP: 3,3g/t Au

RESOURCES History:---- 2008 ----------- 2009 ----------- 2010 ----------- 2011 ----------- 2012 ------- 2013

P&P Reserves ---------------- 0 ----------------- 0 --------------- 64 --------------- 59 ------------- 97 ---------- 125
M&I Resources -------------- 82 -------------- 102 -------------- 60 -------------- 94 -------------- 151 -------- 150
Inferred Resources -------- 118 ------------- 120 ------------- 124 ------------- 144 ------------- 96 ---------- 100

Total --------------------------- 200m oz------ 222m oz ------ 248m oz ------- 297m ---------- 344m ------ 375m Ag oz in the ground.

1005 Silver Wheaton

La production annuelle globale d'Ag est d'environ 750 millions d'onces et +/-150 millions d'onces/an sont recyclees (Umicore...). (1oz >> 1 once >> 31,1gr) (900 000 000 oz >> +/- 25 000tonnes/an)

Les mines d'Argent dont la production est constituee d'au moins 70% d'Ag ne representent que 30% de la production annuelle.
70% de l'Argent provient de mines de Cuivre, Zinc, Plomb & or (bi-product).

D'apres les meilleures infos disponibles (que je scrute avec attention depuis + de 10 ans maintenant) il y aurait a la surface de la terre
environ 1 milliard d'oz d'argent ('bullion' or '999 investment grade silver') (+/- 31 600t) dont au moins la moitie est detenue par des
'strong hands' qui connaissent les fondamentaux et ne sont pas du tout interesses de s'en debarrasser dans le contexte actuel.

Voici ce que je considere comme etant le meilleur resume des fondamentaux des metaux precieux:

>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5VNAEmmBQM

Avec 80 millions de nouveaux consommateurs chaque annee (+1,4%) et une masse monetaire qui grimpe d'au moins 10% par an,
ces dernieres annees, nous sommes dans un contexte ou chaque annee, de plus en plus de monde avec dans l'ensemble encore
10 fois plus d'unites monetaires, courent derrieres des matieres premieres epuisables, de plus en plus rares et inaccessibles.

Je m'attends serieusement a voir grimper l'or jusqu'au moins $5000/oz et l'argent s'ajuster a au plus 1/10 de l'or donc $500/oz,
s'il n'y a pas hyperinflation (>> moon...) et si Oussama Ben Bernanke et ses collegues arretent d'imprimer pour en resume, continuer
a 'bailout' the banksters, the wars et ceux qui ne savent rien faire d'utile, mais ont faim et froid. Ce qui n'est pas prevu au programme.

>> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gIp4JvKL9Oo

Pour mieux VISUALISER les forces a l'oeuvre (l'offre & la demande) voici 2 exercices:

1006 First Majestic Silver

EXERCICE 1 >> Because of the fear of inflation in the coming years everyone should buy a little. 'Everyone' >> 1% of the world population & 'A little' >> un tube de 25 oz d'Ag)

First year: 70 millions x 25 oz >> 1,750 000 000 d'Oz

2nd year: 70 millions x 50 oz >> 3 500 000 000 d'Oz

3rd year: 70 millions x 50 oz >> 3 500 000 000 d'oz

4th year: 140 millions x 100 oz >> 14 000 000 000 d'oz (ici le bruit se repand et 2% sont maintenant interresses.)

5th year: 140 millions x 500 oz >> 70 000 000 000 d'oz (ils achetent finalement une 'Monsterbox' (500 oz))

Even after the 5th year at ($1000/oz?) we will still not be in a bubble with only 2% of the growing world population REALIZING that
for a very small part of their capital, REAL MONEY is a lot safer, better & useful than the worthless digits created by the world
central banks at no cost (for them...) with a record of a 100% FAILURE through history...

This indicates to me that there's going to be a shortage very soon, cause they will be in competition with the industrial users to secure
as much as possible of the half billion Oz left, the only willing sellers will be those who don't understand the fundamentals, and soon
after they will cry...

EXERCICE 2 >> 1% of global funds under management flows to physical silver.

There's now more than 100 trillion in the global fund management industry. That's the total amount of money that can flow towards silver.

There's been 65 (2008), 80 (2009), 100 (2010) millions Oz collected by the 'silver savers' which is about 1, 2, and 3 billions $
when multiplied by each year average price.

3 000 000 000 : 100 000 000 000 000 >> it's a ratio of a 100 000 to 3...
(3 billions) : (100 trillions)

1007 Fortuna Silver Mines

** There's 41,000 ppm of Iron and 0,07 ppm of silver in the earth's crust (Iron price >> $0,0815/lb - Silver price >> $352/lb)

If Iron is fairly valued, then it seems silver should be valued at $2 983/oz in light of their relative abundance.

Against Titanium >> silver should be valued at $15 450/oz

Against Magnesium >> silver should be valued at $925/oz

Against Aluminium >> silver should be valued at $60 072/oz

Against Zinconium >> silver should be valued at $2 714/oz

Against Tungsten >> silver should be valued at $26 594/oz

Against Neodymium >> silver should be valued at $1 773/oz

Against Gallium >> silver should be valued at $2 298/oz ??? at $24/oz like now, 'un gimme' cousu de fil blanc...


** There's around $3 billion (100 million oz) invested per year worldwide in physical silver (as a store of value).

Now in the USA only, there's 6 billion wasted a year on unused giftcards, 7 billion in ATM fees,

29 billion is spend on candy, 31 billion in lottery tickets, 44 billion on tabacco, 50 billion on alcohol,

70 billion gambling in casino, 76 billion on soda...

1008 Endeavour Silver

Year..............Gold Market Cap...................Silver Market Cap......................Ratio (Price)..........Ratio (Market Cap)

1900............ $20 Billion ............................ $8 Billion ........................................ 30 .......................... 2,5

.................. (1 billion oz x $20) ................ (12 billion oz x 65 cents)

1950............ $70 Billion ............................ $8 Bilion ......................................... 44 .......................... 9

.................. (2 billion oz x $35) ................ (10 billion oz x 80 cents)

1975............. $450 Billion ......................... $20 Billion ...................................... 38 .......................... 23

................... (3 billion oz x $150) ............. (5 billion oz x $4)

2010............. $5 Trillion ........................... $17 Billion ....................................... 65 ......................... 294

................... (5 billion oz x $1000) ............ (1 billion oz x $17)

Gold above ground amounts are easier to pinpoint than silver amounts. That's partly because gold is still held and recorded by world governments,
but also because gold is so valuable that virtually none of it is ever destroyed by non-recoverable industrial consumption.
Therefore, every ounce of gold that is mined annually is added to above ground total amounts.

Silver, of course, is different from gold in that it is industrially consumed. In fact, for more than 60 years, more silver has been consumed than has
been mined annually, even allowing for recycling. Existing inventories were drawn down to balance the structural production deficit.
Therefore, we know there is a lot less silver in existence than 30 or 60 years ago. The highest estimate for existing silver bullion equivalent
(bullion plus 'junk ' coin) is one billion ounces, with most estimates falling in the mid hundred million-ounce range.
I will

1009 Pan American Silver

Year..............World Population........Gold Market Cap...................Silver Market Cap......................Gold Per Capita..........Silver Per Capita

1900............ 1,6 Billion..................... $20 Billion ............................ $8 Billion ................................... $13 .............................. $5

1950............ 2,5 Billion ................... $70 Billion ............................ $8 Bilion ..................................... $28 .............................. $3

1975............. 4 Billion ...................... $450 Billion ......................... $20 Billion ................................. $113 .............................. $5

2010............. 6,7 Billion ................... $5 Trilion ............................. $17 Billion ................................. $746 ............................. $2,5

What this table tells us is that, on a per capita dollar basis, the world's citizens have never owned more gold or less silver than they do today.
The world's citizens own more than 57 times more in gold, expressed in dollars, than they owned 110 years ago. Yet at the same time, the world's
citizens own only half dollar-denominated silver than they did 110 years ago. Once again, these figures should shock you, just as they shocked me.

Strictly on a simple arithmetic calculation, the following examples indicate what the price of silver would be today if it had maintained its parity with
gold on two different measurements. One, if the silver market cap had equaled the growth in the gold market cap from 1900, and remained valued at
40% of the gold market cap (as it was in 1900), the current price of silver would be $1200 an ounce ($1200 billion divided by 1 billion ounces).

Two, if the per capita amount of silver in 1900 grew at the equivalent rate that the gold per capita grew, the current price of silver would be $175 an ounce (35 times the amount they held in 1900).

>> http:/

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