101AAAXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX The Truman Show XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXAAA101
1001 The Mid Term BIG PICTURE >> Int. Rates, the $ & the S&P500
QE to infinity. Whatever is required money wise, here and there, will be supplied or it's back to the Stone Age.
Investment management is simply capturing the arbitrage available between perception and reality. It is paramount to know both.
PIGS Bond Yields: https://namawinelake.wordpress.com/about/pigs-10-year-bond-yields-bloomberg/
http://oilprice.com/free-widgets >> The world is breathing and consuming...
http://www.tfc-charts.w2d.com/chart/RI/W >> RICE chart
1002 The Long Term BIG PICTURE
Japan has extremely serious issues, it's just that the market is ignoring them for now. If interest rates rise by a mere 2% or so, interest on the national debt will consume 100%
of Japanese tax revenue. Japan was able to do so for years on account of its current account surplus, of which trade is typically the largest component.
You can now kiss that surplus goodbye because Japan Current Account Turns Negative.
Global imbalances are mounting. I suspect within the next couple of years (if not 2013) Japan will resort to the printing press to finance interest on its national debt and the
Japanese central bank will start a major currency war with all its trading partners to force down the value of the yen.
'Many countries are catching up with Japan in the manufacturing field. If they can produce similar products for a cost 20% to 30% less than Japanese do, Japan will soon find
no demand for its products.
1003 The big BRIC picture
'We'll know our disinformation program is complete when everything the US public believes is false.'
William J. Casey, 1981 We are there now.
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-is-too-Precious-to-be-Used-as-Transportation-Fuel.html à lire...
1007 Gold / Silver ratio
You have to speculate in companies that have the financial wherewithal to weather the most immediate risks. In today's volatile market, you are competing against manic-depressive traders who show up one day wanting to pay more than what you have is worth and the next day willing to sell for less than their assets are worth. In a devotion to net-nets, one of the best indicators of when you ought to be all-in is when it is full of people so disgusted in the market they are selling for less than they are worth. It's a great time to be an investor.
We don't know when things will go up and down, we just know they will. We know when they are cheap it is a good time to buy; when they are expensive, it's a good time to take profits.
1008 The Goldminers...
Since so many people are investing on emotion in the resource sector, you have to take your profits in a bull market and have lots of cash on hand to take advantage of deals in a bear market. In the program I created, there are literally thousands of variables you can analyze and interpret, but one of my favorite metrics for the junior exploration sector is the Casey Cash Box Indicator. One year ago, three companies were trading for less than cash on hand. Now I know of a little over 30. But, we are no where near the low of March 2009 when over one-third of all the companies on the TSX and TSX-V were trading less than cash. The Cash Box Indicator is what I use to give me a 'feel' of the psychological sentiment in the market. When there are lots of companies trading under cash, people are fearful, and that is good if you're looking for value.
1009 Canadian Dollar Index/Euro Index
1010 UltraShort Silver