In search of intrinsic value

Guido Romero Rank: 107 Followers: 3 Votes: 0 Years Member: 7 Last Update: 24 January 2015, 0:19 Categories: Relative Performance Charts
Gold / Gold Stocks

Jan 21/15 - There is a quiet flow of money going into CEF. We have a gap to close at around 13 but the money flows are looking solid.

Jan17/15 - Some good developments on the bullion front. The monthly chart of gold has a positive MACD cross over (the month is not over yet) and the price of the metal has regained an important technical level. The Gold/Euro chart is looking good but we have a gap to fill on the paper market for gold as represented by GLD. Gaps are always troublesome and the paper market still holds sway for the price of bullion. The Swiss are up to something and only in the ripeness of time shall we find out what it is. The mining share market is showing signs of life but we are still far from being able to discern a change in trend. Also, in the event of a general market rout, mining shares will succumb to the general market sell-off at least initially.

Jan 15/15 - The Swiss have dropped the Euro peg. They have simultaneously dropped interested rates even further into negative territory in an attempt to compensate the depegging. This is big.

Jan 14/15 - The month is not over yet but... the monthly chart of Gold vs Euro has just had a MACD and ADX cross overs with RSI above 50... we are not out of the woods yet of course. This is however, one more sign of global asset deflation to come...

Jan 5/15 - I have added an emerging market index at number 103

Jan 3/15 - The big news last week and last year is the break out of the price of gold in Euro terms after an 18 months basing pattern. The US$ gapped up yesterday a sign that it may now take a breather thereby giving a break to some of the most oversold currencies and, at the same time, at least temporarily boosting gold too.

Dec 31/14 - The week is not over yet but... Gold, Silver and CEF are showing MACD cross overs on the weekly charts. GLD however is stacking gaps. The difference between GLD and CEF or bullion is that the former is subject to the scourge of paper titles. Given the history of the past five years, I have to believe that


050 - $GOLD:$XEU - Monthly Candlesticks, Landscape

Jan 14/15 - If history should repeat (a big if), an RSI cross over is quite propitious to coming price action. Conversely, it may not be so propitious for the Euro

100 - $SPX since 1980

Dec 3/14 - The US$ has recently broken out of a long basing pattern. I am going out on a limb here to say that this is, in my opinion, the beginning of a tectonic shift that is heralding asset price deflation. If this should indeed be the case, this 700 points formation is looking ever more probable...

101 - US$ purchasing power versus CPI

Dec 2014 - The recent US$ breakout that I've been tracking since 2010 is a powerful signal. If this change is confirmed by the price taking out the 95 - 100 level convincingly, this would indicate a significant change in the financial landscape of the past twelve years. Most importantly however, my opinion is that this is the manifestation of global asset price devaluation. If I am correct in my assessment, this would imply that going forward a lot of money is going to leave some highly leveraged positions notably in emerging markets. Too, if the change we are currently witnessing should develop at the same speed, a lot of hedges and derivative positions are going to generate significant losses for sovereigns, sovereign funds, investment funds and pension funds. Adapting to this new reality for large investors is going to be fraught with traps and dangers of all sorts, just at a time when we are witnessing unprecedented economic, financial and monetary conditions...

103 - Emerging Markets Free Index

Jan 5/15 - I am adding this index of Emerging Markets to monitor the US$ advance. If the US$ breakout is sustained, it should play havoc with EMs. One curious thing is how this chart is very similar to the chart of crude. Coincidence...?

105 - 30years US Treasury Bond since 1980

110 - $SPX, the 30yr US TBond and the US Dollar since 1980

Dec 3/14 - This is an important break out. It may very well herald a period of asset price deflation in which case the major indexes may not fare as well going forward...
Apr 15/14 - The reason I think the US$ is on the rise is not due to a belief of economic or financial strength in the USA. Rather, the Dollar is headed higher simply because the currencies of member countries that have adopted the US$ as reserve currency (Floating Exchange Rate Mechanism) must arithmetically suffer from aberrant US$ monetary policy...

120 - $SPX and gold since 1980

125 - Gold since 1980

126 - Gold bullion inflated by the purchasing power of the US$

127 - Mining shares investment sentiment

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