In search of intrinsic value

Guido Romero Rank: 122 Followers: 2 Votes: 0 Years Member: 6 Last Update: 22 May 2013, 23:56 Categories: Gold / Gold Stocks
Relative Performance Charts
Currencies

Regardless of any recommendations you may receive from anyone, at this particular financial/economic/social juncture, gold bullion stored within your reach is the safest thing - coins are a fine store of value. I don't particularly recommend GLD as a long term investment but only as a medium term holding and/or trading vehicle. For long term holding I prefer CEF or any of the Sprott funds.

April 13/13 - Hit on all fronts. Still holding bullion. The only consolation is that most of the bullion I have was bought many years ago. But this hit is significant. Still, nothing has changed on the political, financial or economic scene so bullion is still a sound investment... if a volatile one... Never forget that a 50% retracement is always a possibility as happened in 1975 for example. At this time, I feel GLD is no longer a viable vehicle even for trading. Technically speaking (chart 200), 1300 is our next stop and we have to be ready for 1100 which would be a 50% retracement of the entire rise so far.

Feb 16/13 - My early entry into miners was resolved with an exit on January 25th with a maximum loss of 10%. All major gold funds have now closed their August gaps. I have not disposed of bullion funds and am in fact adding as I am adding to physical in the form of coins and ingots. Monetary policy along with the political construct still favor gold vs any other type of holding be it stocks, bonds or currencies.

Dec 12/12 - Today we await the end of the world. In the meantime, the mining shares appear to be ready to lead bullion as they are supposed to do. Ideally, I wish CEF, GLD and the Sprott funds would close the recent gaps and there is still a chance they might in the next few days. Right now, the one thing that must weigh heavily on the Fed and the ECB's mind is the precariousness of the price of crude (oil). Technically and empirically crude prices are trending lower not least because of demand and consumption that are back at 1997 levels. However, lower energy prices threaten to take down asse

Less

100 - $SPX since 1980

The S&P is the benchmark I use to illustrate and buttress my argument.

105 - 30years US Treasury Bond since 1980

110 - $SPX, the 30yr US TBond and the US Dollar since 1980

120 - $SPX and gold since 1980

125 - Gold since 1980

126 - Gold bullion inflated by the purchasing power of the US$

130 - $SPX valued in terms of gold bullion

135 - The 30yr US Treasury Bond valued in terms of gold bullion

140 - $SPX valued in terms of $XAU the gold mining company share index

141 - gold shares vs S&P monthly

This information is presented for education purposes only. StockCharts.com is not responsible for any comments, advice, or annotations presented on this page. Please review our Terms of Use for more details.