In search of intrinsic value

Guido Romero Rank: 97 Followers: 5 Votes: 2 Years Member: 8 Last Update: 10 February 2016, 7:46 Categories: Relative Performance Charts
Gold / Gold Stocks
Currencies

Feb 4/16 - Something is happening in the currencies... the majors are sporting positive divergences and appear to be looking for a bounce... is it a breakout??... Conversely, the US$ is under pressure...

Jan 6/16 - The morass continues... imbalances are expanding... fiscality is becoming ever more onerous throughout the West... shipping indexes plumbing the depths since whenever... despite stonewalling across borders and across institutions, the various pedophile scandals in the West refuse to go away... the West is committing even more military assets to the Middle East theater because nothing says success like 4 million displaced, 300K killed and 200K maimed... Saudi Arabia still holds the chair of the Human Rights Commission... .... happy new year I guess... the Yen appears to be doing something...

Dec 7/15 - Economic indicators globally have all but confirmed a global recession. Yet the markets are still holding up. Subsequent rounds of various forms of QE globally are keeping all markets on life support to the point that it is impossible to offer any sensible analysis on anything. The US$ is still on a tear and I think it's got some ways to go higher. If this should indeed happen, I have to believe that all emerging markets will be under pressure. More importantly though, if the US$ should indeed tear higher, then I should think that all the US$ loans that have been taken out globally by individuals and governments alike, will not be repaid; at the very least, not in full. This will induce asset value deflation engendering a chain of bankruptcies that will take down governments too.

Nov 28/15 - Of the best laid plans and all that... gold has taken out an important Fibonacci level... lower prices are to be expected all the way down to potentially 850... I am a bit lost... I can see what the US Dollar is doing but can't figure out what a sensible long term position might be... I suppose that if we should get a retracement in the the major US share markets of, say, 30 to 50% then a medium term positi

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050 - $GOLD:$XEU - Monthly Candlesticks, Landscape

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Jan 14/15 - If history should repeat (a big if), an RSI cross over is quite propitious to coming price action. Conversely, it may not be so propitious for the Euro
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100 - $SPX since 1980

Mar 10/15 - There is a school of thought that holds that as the US$ rises, capital will be drained from global markets and will concentrate in US$ assets. In this scenario, the US bond and share markets may suffer temporary wobbles as the storm buffets global markets but, eventually, the US share market will be the last refuge of capital (which will also eventually leave the US bond markets) driving it to dizzying highs.
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Dec 3/14 - The US$ has recently broken out of a long basing pattern. I am going out on a limb here to say that this is, in my opinion, the beginning of a tectonic shift that is heralding asset price deflation. If this should indeed be the case, this 700 points formation is looking ever more probable...
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101 - US$ purchasing power versus CPI

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Mar 2015 - This may come a bit late. The underlying conclusion of the search for intrinsic value in this monetary context and at this particular juncture, must necessarily lead one to completely divest of any property in descending order. Immobile property such as real estate is the first to succumb to the fiscal impasse of the sovereign. All other property in descending order will too succumb in turn. The more liquid the property, the farther down the line of extortable (if the word exists) priorities it lies. Art and collectibles will too be taxed particularly those items that have a paper trail.
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Dec 2014 - The recent US$ breakout that I've been tracking since 2010 is a powerful signal. If this change is confirmed by the price taking out the 95 - 100 level convincingly, this would indicate a significant change in the financial landscape of the past twelve years. Most importantly however, my opinion is that this is the manifestation of global asset price devaluation. If I am correct in my assessment, this would imply that going forward a lot of money is going to leave some highly leveraged positions notably in emerging markets. Too, if the change we are currently witnessing should develop at the same speed, a lot of hedges and derivative positions are going to generate significant losses for sovereigns, sovereign funds, investment funds and pension funds. Adapting to this new reality for large investors is going to be fraught with traps and dangers of all sorts, just at a time when we are witnessing unprecedented economic, financial and monetary conditions...
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103 - Emerging Markets Free Index

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Jan 21/16 - One year on and this chart has broken down. The US$ advance will spell the death of some very large investments in Emerging Markets and in European markets too I suspect...
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Jan 5/15 - I am adding this index of Emerging Markets to monitor the US$ advance. If the US$ breakout is sustained, it should play havoc with EMs. One curious thing is how this chart is very similar to the chart of crude. Coincidence...?

105 - 30years US Treasury Bond since 1980

110 - $SPX, the 30yr US TBond and the US Dollar since 1980

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Dec 3/14 - This is an important break out. It may very well herald a period of asset price deflation in which case the major indexes may not fare as well going forward...
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Apr 15/14 - The reason I think the US$ is on the rise is not due to a belief of economic or financial strength in the USA. Rather, the Dollar is headed higher simply because the currencies of member countries that have adopted the US$ as reserve currency (Floating Exchange Rate Mechanism) must arithmetically suffer from aberrant US$ monetary policy...
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120 - $SPX and gold since 1980

125 - Gold since 1980

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Feb 3/16 - Gold is certainly oversold. Keep in mind however, that crashes usually take place from oversold conditions... the gold price still has the potential to break down to the 61% Fib level...
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126 - Gold bullion inflated by the purchasing power of the US$

127 - Mining shares investment sentiment

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