In search of intrinsic value

Guido Romero Rank: 125 Followers: 2 Votes: 0 Years Member: 7 Last Update: 20 October 2014, 4:31 Categories: Relative Performance Charts
Gold / Gold Stocks
Currencies

Oct 15/14 - Sovereign currencies are working on some sort of bounce. All currencies however are under tremendous pressure to breakdown and the Canadian $ first amongst them. The internals of the general market have weakened considerably in the past month lead by the Russel 2000 that has taken a pummelling. Big cap stocks still holding up relatively well very likely due to buybacks and as main targets of black box trading machines.

Sept 20/14 - That was not a good close for the metals. Trailing stops have been hit. Bullion may yet retrace to the 50% Fibo in the 1100 area. Watching.

Sept16/14 - Gaps in the major funds all closed. I am perplexed however. There are still gaps in relative charts compared to major Western currencies. Nonetheless, CEF has put in a clear hammer yesterday. A bounce is a high probability. We will have to observe the action hence forth but it looks generally constructive.

Aug 9/15 - Whilst GDX has closed the gap, GLD is $2.04 and CEF is $0.02 away from doing so. There is a divergence in the EUR/CHF price action... bears watching.The US$ has broken out of its 4 year range but I am waiting till end of the week for confirmation

Aug 5/14 - The US$ is sporting positive divergences. Conversely other currencies are being squeezed. The big news is that GDX has closed the gap and that CEF is only $0.20 from closing its gap. If this bottom is for real in the PM sector, the next few days should give us the closing of gaps across the board and a reversal up of stock and bullion funds. If this should happen, we'll observe the character of the advance but, so far, things are looking constructive...

Jul 21/14 - Amongst Western currencies, the Canadian $ is the one closest to breaking long term support. The oil price has broken down on the daily and is due a bounce. Bullion funds as well as precious metal funds are all sporting gaps some 5% below current levels. It is a symmetry that reinforces the probability that the gap will be closed - hopefully sooner rather than later.

July 8/14 - I am findi

Less

100 - $SPX since 1980

The S&P is the benchmark I use to illustrate and buttress my argument.

101 - US$ purchasing power versus CPI

105 - 30years US Treasury Bond since 1980

110 - $SPX, the 30yr US TBond and the US Dollar since 1980

120 - $SPX and gold since 1980

125 - Gold since 1980

126 - Gold bullion inflated by the purchasing power of the US$

130 - $SPX valued in terms of gold bullion

135 - The 30yr US Treasury Bond valued in terms of gold bullion

140 - $SPX valued in terms of $XAU the gold mining company share index

Oct 7/13 - This is the power of the Fed. By simultaneously giving trillions to the banks and keeping interest rates artificially low, it can induce corporate re-financing thus boosting the nominal value of the stock market. The direct ramification of this policy is the devastation of purchasing power thus abetting inequality.

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