In search of intrinsic value

Guido Romero Rank: 103 Followers: 5 Votes: 0 Years Member: 9 Last Update: 16 May 2016, 3:19 Categories: Relative Performance Charts
Gold / Gold Stocks
Currencies

May 15/16 - Not much to report. Markets are churning, I am waiting. I am now taking an interest in soft commodities... grains, agriculture... for the long term this could be an interesting investment particularly if the climate warming hypothesis turns out not to be accurate and, instead, a period of low solar activity should bring about harsh winters... as seems entirely possible incidentally...

Apr 30/16 - The ADX on chart 126 is signalling a change in trend!!! If previous signals are any guide, the uptrend in gold is now confirmed. The price of gold has shot up and the share price of individual miners have doubled in the past few weeks so caution is still warranted. Nonetheless, it would appear the financial landscape is now changing...

Apr 21/16 - Outside reversal day on a gap on CEF on page 302!!! Taking some more profit off the table seems reasonable

Apr 13/16 - Despite the price line having, for now, peaked above the downtrend line, the ADX on chart 126 has yet to cross over. Moreover, GDX and GLD are still sporting huge gaps below. This makes me think that despite the almost 100% rise in GDX in the past few weeks, this rise is not solid. Taking at least some profits off the table may be a reasonable course of action.

Mar 5/16 - Silver is still not participating to the recent spike in the price of gold and GLD has left gaping gaps behind... = Caution .... Also, chart 126 still shows that the recent rise is not yet an inversion in trend...

Feb 20/16 - Along with the gaps left behind by GLD, the Silver non confirmation of gold's latest ramp up is another warning sign that we may be looking for, at best, a retracement to close the gaps or, worst case scenario, a lower low in gold prices...

17/16 - Despite gold's strong performance lately, the trend has not yet reversed. Charts 125, 126 and 200 illustrate that, so far, this is merely a counter-trend rally. In particular, GLD has left behind some very large gaps that must be filled before this can be called a solid rise. So, a lower low for gold is

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050 - $GOLD:$XEU - Monthly Candlesticks, Landscape

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Jan 14/15 - If history should repeat (a big if), an RSI cross over is quite propitious to coming price action. Conversely, it may not be so propitious for the Euro
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100 - $SPX since 1980

Mar 10/15 - There is a school of thought that holds that as the US$ rises, capital will be drained from global markets and will concentrate in US$ assets. In this scenario, the US bond and share markets may suffer temporary wobbles as the storm buffets global markets but, eventually, the US share market will be the last refuge of capital (which will also eventually leave the US bond markets) driving it to dizzying highs.
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Dec 3/14 - The US$ has recently broken out of a long basing pattern. I am going out on a limb here to say that this is, in my opinion, the beginning of a tectonic shift that is heralding asset price deflation. If this should indeed be the case, this 700 points formation is looking ever more probable...
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101 - US$ purchasing power versus CPI

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Mar 2015 - This may come a bit late. The underlying conclusion of the search for intrinsic value in this monetary context and at this particular juncture, must necessarily lead one to completely divest of any property in descending order. Immobile property such as real estate is the first to succumb to the fiscal impasse of the sovereign. All other property in descending order will too succumb in turn. The more liquid the property, the farther down the line of extortable (if the word exists) priorities it lies. Art and collectibles will too be taxed particularly those items that have a paper trail.
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Dec 2014 - The recent US$ breakout that I've been tracking since 2010 is a powerful signal. If this change is confirmed by the price taking out the 95 - 100 level convincingly, this would indicate a significant change in the financial landscape of the past twelve years. Most importantly however, my opinion is that this is the manifestation of global asset price devaluation. If I am correct in my assessment, this would imply that going forward a lot of money is going to leave some highly leveraged positions notably in emerging markets. Too, if the change we are currently witnessing should develop at the same speed, a lot of hedges and derivative positions are going to generate significant losses for sovereigns, sovereign funds, investment funds and pension funds. Adapting to this new reality for large investors is going to be fraught with traps and dangers of all sorts, just at a time when we are witnessing unprecedented economic, financial and monetary conditions...
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103 - Emerging Markets Free Index

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Jan 21/16 - One year on and this chart has broken down. The US$ advance will spell the death of some very large investments in Emerging Markets and in European markets too I suspect...
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Jan 5/15 - I am adding this index of Emerging Markets to monitor the US$ advance. If the US$ breakout is sustained, it should play havoc with EMs. One curious thing is how this chart is very similar to the chart of crude. Coincidence...?

105 - 30years US Treasury Bond since 1980

110 - $SPX, the 30yr US TBond and the US Dollar since 1980

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Dec 3/14 - This is an important break out. It may very well herald a period of asset price deflation in which case the major indexes may not fare as well going forward...
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Apr 15/14 - The reason I think the US$ is on the rise is not due to a belief of economic or financial strength in the USA. Rather, the Dollar is headed higher simply because the currencies of member countries that have adopted the US$ as reserve currency (Floating Exchange Rate Mechanism) must arithmetically suffer from aberrant US$ monetary policy...
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120 - $SPX and gold since 1980

125 - Gold since 1980

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Feb 3/16 - Gold is certainly oversold. Keep in mind however, that crashes usually take place from oversold conditions... the gold price still has the potential to break down to the 61% Fib level...
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126 - Gold bullion inflated by the purchasing power of the US$

127 - Mining shares investment sentiment

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