In search of intrinsic value

Guido Romero Rank: 96 Followers: 5 Votes: 1 Years Member: 8 Last Update: 25 November 2015, 20:52 Categories: Relative Performance Charts
Gold / Gold Stocks

Oct 15/14 - Ho! Ho! Ho!... Take a look at chart 951 on page 7. The month is not over yet of course but... but... this bears watching....

Oct 9/15 - The paint is still drying... markets are chopping... the GDX has regained a medium term down trend line... the Swiss Franc is showing the best resilience... the A$ and the C$ are enjoying a bit of a bounce... things are blowing up all over the place both geopolitically and socially in Europe and in the Middle East but also figuratively with Deutsche Bank announcing losses, a push for secession in Spain and threats to leave the EU due to immigration pressures... yet, the markets are remarkably sanguine and aimless... something has to give...

Sept 15/15 - Feels like suspended animation: not much happening either way. Emerging Markets have broken down but, for now, are holding. The Euro appears to have exhausted its run up. Soft commodities are showing signs of bottoming (not shown in these charts). Oil appears to be rolling over. In my opinion, oil has some way to go lower still. The geopolitical/social situation in Europe is a tinder box. Spain in particular is a prime candidate for a violent dislocation due to 4 distinct dynamics: the Catalonian vote, social housing contracts, unemployment and immigration. A renewed decline in the Euro may well set the house on fire in Europe.

August 2/15 - Gold has broken a number of critical levels to the downside. Although in the short term we can expect a rally, the final bottom is probably lower still... probably below 1000... Conversely, the US$ and Treasuries still looking good.

June 29/15 - The Yen and the Swiss Franc are coming up to decision junctures...

June 22/15 - The CRB chart on page 5 is looking interesting. Although it is yet to be confirmed, if it should be, soft commodities in the form of agriculture should present a very good long term investment

May 26/15 - I have the feeling the US$ is off to the races again. The Yen has taken out the recent lows and the vitals are not good for the currency. Short of glo


050 - $GOLD:$XEU - Monthly Candlesticks, Landscape

Jan 14/15 - If history should repeat (a big if), an RSI cross over is quite propitious to coming price action. Conversely, it may not be so propitious for the Euro

100 - $SPX since 1980

Mar 10/15 - There is a school of thought that holds that as the US$ rises, capital will be drained from global markets and will concentrate in US$ assets. In this scenario, the US bond and share markets may suffer temporary wobbles as the storm buffets global markets but, eventually, the US share market will be the last refuge of capital (which will also eventually leave the US bond markets) driving it to dizzying highs.
Dec 3/14 - The US$ has recently broken out of a long basing pattern. I am going out on a limb here to say that this is, in my opinion, the beginning of a tectonic shift that is heralding asset price deflation. If this should indeed be the case, this 700 points formation is looking ever more probable...

101 - US$ purchasing power versus CPI

Mar 2015 - This may come a bit late. The underlying conclusion of the search for intrinsic value in this monetary context and at this particular juncture, must necessarily lead one to completely divest of any property in descending order. Immobile property such as real estate is the first to succumb to the fiscal impasse of the sovereign. All other property in descending order will too succumb in turn. The more liquid the property, the farther down the line of extortable (if the word exists) priorities it lies. Art and collectibles will too be taxed particularly those items that have a paper trail.
Dec 2014 - The recent US$ breakout that I've been tracking since 2010 is a powerful signal. If this change is confirmed by the price taking out the 95 - 100 level convincingly, this would indicate a significant change in the financial landscape of the past twelve years. Most importantly however, my opinion is that this is the manifestation of global asset price devaluation. If I am correct in my assessment, this would imply that going forward a lot of money is going to leave some highly leveraged positions notably in emerging markets. Too, if the change we are currently witnessing should develop at the same speed, a lot of hedges and derivative positions are going to generate significant losses for sovereigns, sovereign funds, investment funds and pension funds. Adapting to this new reality for large investors is going to be fraught with traps and dangers of all sorts, just at a time when we are witnessing unprecedented economic, financial and monetary conditions...

103 - Emerging Markets Free Index

Jan 5/15 - I am adding this index of Emerging Markets to monitor the US$ advance. If the US$ breakout is sustained, it should play havoc with EMs. One curious thing is how this chart is very similar to the chart of crude. Coincidence...?

105 - 30years US Treasury Bond since 1980

110 - $SPX, the 30yr US TBond and the US Dollar since 1980

Dec 3/14 - This is an important break out. It may very well herald a period of asset price deflation in which case the major indexes may not fare as well going forward...
Apr 15/14 - The reason I think the US$ is on the rise is not due to a belief of economic or financial strength in the USA. Rather, the Dollar is headed higher simply because the currencies of member countries that have adopted the US$ as reserve currency (Floating Exchange Rate Mechanism) must arithmetically suffer from aberrant US$ monetary policy...

120 - $SPX and gold since 1980

125 - Gold since 1980

126 - Gold bullion inflated by the purchasing power of the US$

127 - Mining shares investment sentiment

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