= 070 Daily Indicator (Trend) Review

Lawrence Stanczak Rank: 74 Followers: 11 Votes: 28 Years Member: 10 Last Update: 18 April 2014, 13:53 Categories: Trend Analysis
Market Timing
Support / Resistance Lines

Long Term: Bullish / Intermediate Term: Neutral / Short Term: Correcting
The purpose of this list is to assess market trend and risk using Intermarket analysis of Commodities; Currencies; Bonds; and Stocks as well as Risk Appetite (VIX, CPC, Rato Studies, etc) and Foreign Markets. Nomenclature: Intermediate Trend (IT): 3 or more Months; Short Term (ST) generally 3 days to 3 weeks.

Version 2 has some added charts and has been restructured to make it easier to navigate to only those studies of interest. The series from 000 to 400 are relationship studies and 500 to 700 are candlestick charts of major indexes and ETF's. 000 - Commentary & Macro view; 100 - Commodities; 200 - Currencies; 300 - Bonds; 400 - Stocks; 500 - Candle Charts for Commodities, Currencies and Bonds; 600 - Domestic Stock Indexes; 700 - Foreign Stock ETFs.

How I use it: I review the entire series before the open and after the close. Once acquainted with the relationships in play I keep an eye on the candle components using the summary view during the trading day.

The purpose of this list is to make macro level calls I may cite trades I have put on or am considering as examples. These are not recommendations as that engenders a different series of charts and analysis.
I welcome all feedback, questions and recommendations. I am very open minded and enjoy the discourse as it helps me continually improve this list and my analysis.

Less

000 Commentary

4/18/14 Levels to Be Aware of:

1900/1904 - Round Number; Weekly R2
1897 - All Time High (4/4/14)
1890/1893 - All Time Closing High (4/2/14); Monthly R1
1884 - Weekly R1
1870/1873 - Last Week High; High of two weeks ago

1864/1865 - Monthly PP; Last Week Close

1859 - 20 DMA (declining)
1848/1851 - 10 DMA (declining); 50 DMA
1840/1843 - Prior Support/Resistance; Monthly S1
1831/1834 - 100 DMA; Weekly S1; Mar 2014 Low
1814 - Last Week Low (and low of two weeks ago); Monthly S2
1798/1800 - 150 DMA; Round Number
1794/1796 - Monthly S3; Weekly S2
1777 - Weekly S3
1766/1770 - Prior Support/Resistance; Dec and Jan Low; 200 DMA (close 5.6% above)
1746 - Nov Low
1738 - Feb Low
1700/1710 - Round Number; Prior Support/Resistance; 10% below 1897 High
1687 - 38% Retracement of rally from Nov 2012 Low

010 Correlations: TNX, SPX, CRB, USD Daily

Intermarket Relationships
- US Dollar and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Stocks are inversely correlated
- Bond Yields and Stocks trend in the same direction
- Stocks and Commodities are correlated
At tops, the typical rotation is Bond Yields peak first, Stocks second and commodities last. This order is less reliable at bottoms.

112 CRB, SPX Daily

131 WTIC, USD (SPX) Daily

141 GOLD (GDX) Daily

150 Industrial Commodities/Gold Ratio Daily

151 COPPER, USD (SPX) Daily

202 USD, CRB (SPX) Daily

232 Risk Currencies/Yen Ratio Daily

310 SPY:TLT (SPY) Ratio Weekly

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