= 070 Daily Indicator (Trend) Review

Lawrence Stanczak Rank: 58 Followers: 13 Votes: 28 Years Member: 13 Last Update: 27 September 2016, 18:21 Categories: Trend Analysis
Market Timing
Support / Resistance Lines

Long Term: Bullish>2100/ Intermediate Term: Bullish >2165/ Short Term Bullish >2175, Neutral < 2175, Bearish < 2150
The purpose of this list is to assess market trend and risk using Intermarket analysis of Commodities; Currencies; Bonds; and Stocks as well as Risk Appetite (VIX, CPC, Rato Studies, etc) and Foreign Markets. Nomenclature: Intermediate Trend (IT): 3 or more Months; Short Term (ST) generally 3 days to 3 weeks.

Version 2 has some added charts and has been restructured to make it easier to navigate to only those studies of interest. The series from 000 to 400 are relationship studies and 500 to 700 are candlestick charts of major indexes and ETF's. 000 - Commentary & Macro view; 100 - Commodities; 200 - Currencies; 300 - Bonds; 400 - Stocks; 500 - Candle Charts for Commodities, Currencies and Bonds; 600 - Domestic Stock Indexes; 700 - Foreign Stock ETFs.

How I use it: I review the entire series before the open and after the close. Once acquainted with the relationships in play I keep an eye on the candle components using the summary view during the trading day.

The purpose of this list is to make macro level calls I may cite trades I have put on or am considering as examples. These are not recommendations as that engenders a different series of charts and analysis.
I welcome all feedback, questions and recommendations. I am very open minded and enjoy the discourse as it helps me continually improve this list and my analysis.

Less

000 Commentary

9/23/16 Levels to Be Aware of:

2200/2204 - Round Number; Weekly R2
2190/2194 - All Time Closing High (8/15/16); All Time High (8/15/16); Monthly R1
2180/2184 - Last Week High; Weekly R1
2159/2171 - 50 DMA; Monthly PP

2065 - Last Week Close

2160/2161 - Weekly PP; 20 DMA (declining)
2148 - 10 DMA (declining); Monthly S1; August 2016 Low
2136/2140 - Last Week Low; Weekly S1
2123/2125 - 100 DMA; Monthly S2
2116 - Weekly S2
2096/2102 - Weekly S3; 150 DMA; Round Number; Monthly S3
2080 - Prior Support/Resistance
2061 - 200 DMA (close 5.0% above)
2044/2050 - YTD Breakeven; Prior Support/Resistance
2000 - Round Number
1992 - Reaction Low for current move higher
1980 - Prior Support/Resistance
1970 - 10% below SPX High
1900 - Round Number
1867/1871 - 2015 Low; 38% Retracement of rally from Nov 2012 Low to $SPX High
1810 - Feb and 2016 Low
1800 - Round Number
1769 - 50 % Retracement of Rally from Nov 2012 Low to $SPX High

010 Correlations: TNX, SPX, CRB, USD Daily

Intermarket Relationships
- US Dollar and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Stocks are inversely correlated
- Bond Yields and Stocks trend in the same direction
- Stocks and Commodities are correlated
At tops, the typical rotation is Bond Yields peak first, Stocks second and commodities last. This order is less reliable at bottoms.

112 CRB, SPX Daily

131 WTIC, USD (SPX) Daily

141 GOLD (GDX) Daily

150 Industrial Commodities/Gold Ratio Daily

151 COPPER, USD (SPX) Daily

202 USD, CRB (SPX) Daily

232 Risk Currencies/Yen Ratio Daily

310 SPY:TLT (SPY) Ratio Weekly

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