= 070 Daily Indicator (Trend) Review

Lawrence Stanczak Rank: 68 Followers: 11 Votes: 28 Years Member: 12 Last Update: 5 May 2016, 18:01 Categories: Trend Analysis
Market Timing
Support / Resistance Lines

Long Term: Bullish > 2000 / Intermediate Term: Bullish > 2040 / Short Term: Neutral < 2070
The purpose of this list is to assess market trend and risk using Intermarket analysis of Commodities; Currencies; Bonds; and Stocks as well as Risk Appetite (VIX, CPC, Rato Studies, etc) and Foreign Markets. Nomenclature: Intermediate Trend (IT): 3 or more Months; Short Term (ST) generally 3 days to 3 weeks.

Version 2 has some added charts and has been restructured to make it easier to navigate to only those studies of interest. The series from 000 to 400 are relationship studies and 500 to 700 are candlestick charts of major indexes and ETF's. 000 - Commentary & Macro view; 100 - Commodities; 200 - Currencies; 300 - Bonds; 400 - Stocks; 500 - Candle Charts for Commodities, Currencies and Bonds; 600 - Domestic Stock Indexes; 700 - Foreign Stock ETFs.

How I use it: I review the entire series before the open and after the close. Once acquainted with the relationships in play I keep an eye on the candle components using the summary view during the trading day.

The purpose of this list is to make macro level calls I may cite trades I have put on or am considering as examples. These are not recommendations as that engenders a different series of charts and analysis.
I welcome all feedback, questions and recommendations. I am very open minded and enjoy the discourse as it helps me continually improve this list and my analysis.


000 Commentary

4/29/16 Levels to Be Aware of:

2131/2136 - All Time Closing High (5/21/15); All Time High (5/20/15)
2120 - Weekly R2
2116 - Start of downtrend on 11/3/15
2090/2106 - 10 DMA; Weekly R1; Last Week High; Round Number; Monthly R1
2076 - 20 DMA

2065/2072 - Last Week Close; Monthly PP; Weekly PP

2045/2052 - Weekly S1; 2016 Breakeven; Last Week Low
2025/2032 - Weekly S2; Monthly S1; 50 DMA
2011/2015 - 150 DMA; 200 DMA (close 2.5% above)
1993/2000 - Monthly S2; 100 DMA; Weekly S3; Round Number
1980 - Prior Support/Resistance
1950/1953 - Prior Support/Resistance; Monthly S3
1920 - 10% below SPX High
1900 - Round Number
1867 - 2015 Low
1834/1839 - 38% Retracement of rally from Nov 2012 Low to $SPX High; Monthly S3
1810 - Feb and 2016 Low
1800 - Round Number
1781 - 50 % Retracement of Rally from Nov 2012 Low to $SPX High

010 Correlations: TNX, SPX, CRB, USD Daily

Intermarket Relationships
- US Dollar and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Stocks are inversely correlated
- Bond Yields and Stocks trend in the same direction
- Stocks and Commodities are correlated
At tops, the typical rotation is Bond Yields peak first, Stocks second and commodities last. This order is less reliable at bottoms.

112 CRB, SPX Daily

131 WTIC, USD (SPX) Daily

141 GOLD (GDX) Daily

150 Industrial Commodities/Gold Ratio Daily

151 COPPER, USD (SPX) Daily

202 USD, CRB (SPX) Daily

232 Risk Currencies/Yen Ratio Daily

310 SPY:TLT (SPY) Ratio Weekly

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