= 070 Daily Indicator (Trend) Review

Lawrence Stanczak Rank: 69 Followers: 13 Votes: 28 Years Member: 11 Last Update: 31 October 2014, 21:01 Categories: Trend Analysis
Market Timing
Support / Resistance Lines

Long Term: Bullish / Intermediate Term: Bullish/ Short Term: Neutral
The purpose of this list is to assess market trend and risk using Intermarket analysis of Commodities; Currencies; Bonds; and Stocks as well as Risk Appetite (VIX, CPC, Rato Studies, etc) and Foreign Markets. Nomenclature: Intermediate Trend (IT): 3 or more Months; Short Term (ST) generally 3 days to 3 weeks.

Version 2 has some added charts and has been restructured to make it easier to navigate to only those studies of interest. The series from 000 to 400 are relationship studies and 500 to 700 are candlestick charts of major indexes and ETF's. 000 - Commentary & Macro view; 100 - Commodities; 200 - Currencies; 300 - Bonds; 400 - Stocks; 500 - Candle Charts for Commodities, Currencies and Bonds; 600 - Domestic Stock Indexes; 700 - Foreign Stock ETFs.

How I use it: I review the entire series before the open and after the close. Once acquainted with the relationships in play I keep an eye on the candle components using the summary view during the trading day.

The purpose of this list is to make macro level calls I may cite trades I have put on or am considering as examples. These are not recommendations as that engenders a different series of charts and analysis.
I welcome all feedback, questions and recommendations. I am very open minded and enjoy the discourse as it helps me continually improve this list and my analysis.


000 Commentary

10/24/14 Levels to Be Aware of:

2019/2020 -All Time High (9/19/14); Weekly R2
2006/2011 - Monthly R1; All Time Closing High (9/18/14)
2000 - Round Number; Prior Resistance
1985/1992 - Monthly PP; Weekly R1
1978 - High of two weeks ago

1964/1967 - Sep 2014 Low; Last Week High; Last Week Close; 50 DMA (declining)

1962 - 100 DMA
1950/1951 - Prior Resistance; Monthly S1
1934/1937 - 150 DMA; Weekly PP
1928/1931 - 20 DMA (declining); Monthly S2; Jul 2014 Low
1916 - Jun 2014 Low
1905/1909 - 10 DMA (declining); Aug 2014 Low; Last Week Low; Weekly S1; 200 DMA (close 2.9% above)
1896/1900 - Monthly S3; Round Number
1880 - Prior Resistance
1854/1860 - Weekly S2; May 2014 Low
1827/1834 - Weekly S3; Mar 2014 Low
1814/1821 - Apr 2014 Low; 10% below $SPX High; Low from two weeks ago
1800 - Round Number
1768/1770 - Dec 2013 Low; Jan 2014 Low
1762 - 38% Retracement of rally from Nov 2012 Low

010 Correlations: TNX, SPX, CRB, USD Daily

Intermarket Relationships
- US Dollar and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Stocks are inversely correlated
- Bond Yields and Stocks trend in the same direction
- Stocks and Commodities are correlated
At tops, the typical rotation is Bond Yields peak first, Stocks second and commodities last. This order is less reliable at bottoms.

112 CRB, SPX Daily

131 WTIC, USD (SPX) Daily

141 GOLD (GDX) Daily

150 Industrial Commodities/Gold Ratio Daily

151 COPPER, USD (SPX) Daily

202 USD, CRB (SPX) Daily

232 Risk Currencies/Yen Ratio Daily

310 SPY:TLT (SPY) Ratio Weekly

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