= 070 Daily Indicator (Trend) Review

Lawrence Stanczak Rank: 66 Followers: 12 Votes: 29 Years Member: 12 Last Update: 9 February 2016, 18:21 Categories: Trend Analysis
Market Timing
Support / Resistance Lines

Long Term: Bearish / Intermediate Term: Correcting-Bearish / Short Term: Bearish
The purpose of this list is to assess market trend and risk using Intermarket analysis of Commodities; Currencies; Bonds; and Stocks as well as Risk Appetite (VIX, CPC, Rato Studies, etc) and Foreign Markets. Nomenclature: Intermediate Trend (IT): 3 or more Months; Short Term (ST) generally 3 days to 3 weeks.

Version 2 has some added charts and has been restructured to make it easier to navigate to only those studies of interest. The series from 000 to 400 are relationship studies and 500 to 700 are candlestick charts of major indexes and ETF's. 000 - Commentary & Macro view; 100 - Commodities; 200 - Currencies; 300 - Bonds; 400 - Stocks; 500 - Candle Charts for Commodities, Currencies and Bonds; 600 - Domestic Stock Indexes; 700 - Foreign Stock ETFs.

How I use it: I review the entire series before the open and after the close. Once acquainted with the relationships in play I keep an eye on the candle components using the summary view during the trading day.

The purpose of this list is to make macro level calls I may cite trades I have put on or am considering as examples. These are not recommendations as that engenders a different series of charts and analysis.
I welcome all feedback, questions and recommendations. I am very open minded and enjoy the discourse as it helps me continually improve this list and my analysis.

Less

000 Commentary

2/5/16 Levels to Be Aware of:

2131/2135 - All Time Closing High (5/21/15); All Time High (5/20/15)
2116 - Start of downtrend on 11/3/15
2100 - Round Number
2080 - Prior Support/Resistance
2056/2068 - May 2015 Low; Dec 2014 Low; Jun 2015 Low
2040/2050 - Mar, Jul and Apr 2015 Lows; Dec 2015 Close; Monthly R1; 200 DMA (declining, close 7.9% below)
2019/2020 - Nov 2015 Low; 150 DMA (declining)
2000/2007 - Round Number; Nov 2014 Low; Weekly R3; 100 DMA (declining)
1988/1993 - Jan 2015 Low; Dec 2015 Low; 50 DMA (declining)
1973/1981 - Dec 2014 Low; Feb 2015 Low; Weekly R2
1964 - Sep 2014 Low
1947/1950 - Last Week High; Prior Support/Resistance
1930/1931 - Monthly PP; Jul 2014 Low
1916 - Jun 2014 Low; 10% below $SPX High
1894/1905 - Oct 2015 Low; Weekly PP; Round Number; 10 DMA
1867/1872 - Last Week Low; Aug and 2015 Low; Sep 2015 Low
1860 - May 2014 Low
1852 - Weekly S1
1825/1834 - Weekly S2; Mar 2014 Low; 38% Retracement of rally from Nov 2012 Low to $SPX High
1812/1822 - Jan and 2016 Low; Apr 2015 Low; Oct 2014 Low; Monthly S1
1800 - Round Number
1777 - Weekly S3
1739/1747 - 50 % Retracement of Rally from Nov 2012 Low to $SPX High

010 Correlations: TNX, SPX, CRB, USD Daily

Intermarket Relationships
- US Dollar and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Stocks are inversely correlated
- Bond Yields and Stocks trend in the same direction
- Stocks and Commodities are correlated
At tops, the typical rotation is Bond Yields peak first, Stocks second and commodities last. This order is less reliable at bottoms.

112 CRB, SPX Daily

131 WTIC, USD (SPX) Daily

141 GOLD (GDX) Daily

150 Industrial Commodities/Gold Ratio Daily

151 COPPER, USD (SPX) Daily

202 USD, CRB (SPX) Daily

232 Risk Currencies/Yen Ratio Daily

310 SPY:TLT (SPY) Ratio Weekly

This information is presented for education purposes only. StockCharts.com is not responsible for any comments, advice, or annotations presented on this page. Please review our Terms of Use for more details.