= 070 Daily Indicator (Trend) Review

Lawrence Stanczak Rank: 67 Followers: 13 Votes: 31 Years Member: 11 Last Update: 19 December 2014, 9:51 Categories: Trend Analysis
Market Timing
Support / Resistance Lines

Long Term: Bullish / Intermediate Term: Bullish/ Short Term: Bullish
The purpose of this list is to assess market trend and risk using Intermarket analysis of Commodities; Currencies; Bonds; and Stocks as well as Risk Appetite (VIX, CPC, Rato Studies, etc) and Foreign Markets. Nomenclature: Intermediate Trend (IT): 3 or more Months; Short Term (ST) generally 3 days to 3 weeks.

Version 2 has some added charts and has been restructured to make it easier to navigate to only those studies of interest. The series from 000 to 400 are relationship studies and 500 to 700 are candlestick charts of major indexes and ETF's. 000 - Commentary & Macro view; 100 - Commodities; 200 - Currencies; 300 - Bonds; 400 - Stocks; 500 - Candle Charts for Commodities, Currencies and Bonds; 600 - Domestic Stock Indexes; 700 - Foreign Stock ETFs.

How I use it: I review the entire series before the open and after the close. Once acquainted with the relationships in play I keep an eye on the candle components using the summary view during the trading day.

The purpose of this list is to make macro level calls I may cite trades I have put on or am considering as examples. These are not recommendations as that engenders a different series of charts and analysis.
I welcome all feedback, questions and recommendations. I am very open minded and enjoy the discourse as it helps me continually improve this list and my analysis.


000 Commentary

12/12/14 Levels to Be Aware of:

2076/2079 - Last Week High; All Time High (12/5/14)
2048/2055 - Monthly PP; Weekly R1; 10 DMA (declining); 20 DMA
2020/2026 - Monthly S1; Weekly PP

2000/2002 - Round Number; Nov 2014 Low; 50 DMA; Last Week Close; Last Week Low

1980/1988 - Prior Resistance; 100 DMA
1978 - Weekly S1
1973 - 150 DMA; Monthly S2
1964 - Sep 2014 Low
1953 - Weekly S2
1946/1950 - 200 DMA (close 2.8% above); Monthly S3; Prior Resistance
1931 - Jul 2014 Low
1916 - Jun 2014 Low
1900/1905 - Round Number; Aug 2014 Low
1880 - Prior Resistance/Support
1870 - 10% below $SPX High
1860 - May 2014 Low
1834 - Mar 2014 Low
1814/1821 - Apr 2014 Low; Oct 2014 Low (also most recent correction low)
1800 - 38% Retracement of rally from Nov 2012 Low to present; Round Number
1768/1779 - Dec 2013 Low; Jan 2014 Low

010 Correlations: TNX, SPX, CRB, USD Daily

Intermarket Relationships
- US Dollar and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Commodities trend in opposite directions
- Bond prices and Stocks are inversely correlated
- Bond Yields and Stocks trend in the same direction
- Stocks and Commodities are correlated
At tops, the typical rotation is Bond Yields peak first, Stocks second and commodities last. This order is less reliable at bottoms.

112 CRB, SPX Daily

131 WTIC, USD (SPX) Daily

141 GOLD (GDX) Daily

150 Industrial Commodities/Gold Ratio Daily

151 COPPER, USD (SPX) Daily

202 USD, CRB (SPX) Daily

232 Risk Currencies/Yen Ratio Daily

310 SPY:TLT (SPY) Ratio Weekly

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