TREND CHANGES

Bob Karrow Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 48 Followers: 27 Votes: 27 Years Member: 11 Last Update: 30 September 2014, 21:51 Categories: Trend Analysis
Market Breadth Analysis
Sentiment Analysis





PAGES 1 - 5
TREND INDICATORS

PAGE 6
VARIOUS ELDER IMPULSE SYSTEM INDEXES - DAILY, 2 HOUR AND 30 MINUTE CHARTS (lots of trend lines in the daily charts)

PAGE 7
VARIOUS ELDER IMPULSE SYSTEM INDEXES - MONTHLY AND WEEKLY CHARTS (lots of trend lines)



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My charts are designed to show the characteristics in Paul Desmond's article on market tops. His article can be found at the following link:

It's easier if you COPY and PASTE any links you see below.

http://stock-market-observations.com/2014/05/27/52714-paul-desmond-on-market-tops/


Paul Desmond also wrote an article on market bottoms, which won the Market Technicians Association Dow Award in 2001. You can find the article at:

http://www.mta.org/eweb/docs/2002DowAwardb.pdf

Desmond wrote regarding market peaks:

Usually, the first warning sign that a Bull market is losing some of its upward momentum occurs when the percentage of stocks
rising to a New 52-Week Highs begins to contract. This warning typically occurs as much as six to twelve months in advance of the
final highs in the big-cap indexes.


If interested, you can read about the Elder Impulse System at the following link

http://stock-market-observations.com/2012/01/30/elder-impulse-system-013012/


Follow my blog - Find some different ideas at the link below (papers written by Edson Gould, Terry Laundry, unique wave count theory, etc)

http://stock-market-observations.com


If these charts are of interest to you, please become a follower by clicking on the blue 'Follow' icon in the upper right of this page.


Thanks to everyone who has taken a few moments to look at my charts.
Bob



Less

PAGE 1 CHART 0 - - CUMULATIVE ADVANCE DECLINE #1

PAGE 1 CHART 1 - - CUMULATIVE ADVANCE DECLINE #2

PAGE 1 CHART 2 - - NYSE HIGH LOW

PAGE 1 CHART 3 - - NASDAQ HIGH LOW

PAGE 1 CHART 4 - - DOW THEORY + FTSE + STOCKS ABOVE 20 DAY MA

PAGE 1 CHART 5 - - NEW HIGHS MINUS NEW LOWS

PAGE 1 CHART 6 - - PUT / CALL RATIO



I disagree with one point on what is stated below. When an uptrend begins after a long and significant decline, you will get a reading over +400 and that is not a sell point. It's an initial overbought point that occurs early in the takeoff on a bull move.

I seems that you are more likely to get a tick reading outside of the +/-400 range on the NASDAQ than the NYSE.

'First, separate the noise from the signal by ignoring any tick readings within the +/-400 range. We then record and aggregate those readings outside this range at a fixed time interval. We don't know exactly what interval Mark uses so just pick a time interval: minute, hour, day, etc. The important thing is to be consistent. That's it! Now you have the super secret Mark D. Cook, Cook Cumulative Tick Indicator. So what do you do with it? Watch the 95th and 5th percentile. If the Cumulative Tick Indicator is above the 95th percentile, sell; if below 5th percentile, buy.

Remember, this is a counter trend strategy so the more extreme the tick, the more vicious the snapback. As with all counter trend strategies, mind your protective stop loss! A trend can persist much longer than you can remain solvent. Never try and be a hero by playing chicken with the market.'



PAGE 1 CHART 7 - - PERCENTAGE ABOVE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE

PAGE 1 CHART 8 - - PERCENTAGE ABOVE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE

PAGE 1 CHART 9 - - STOCKS ABOVE 20 DAY MOVING AVERAGE

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