00A DIA One-minute
10/23 -- Across the board, the one-minute and short term charts show that the bounce has broken upward, though it bent to a lesser upward slope now. We are high in the channels again, so a little backing off is starting to occur, but the near term trend is up and sharp. Some things (like Biotechs) are already at new highs! Longer term is still dicey...and remember, the market did this in 2000 only to peak in mid November and go to new lows by year-end.
10/22 -- Momentum has indeed picked up to the upside as one-minute charts all break upward in well-defined minichannels and volatility crashes back down accordingly. There still looks like upside room, particularly in the harder it areas, but it could get choppy again at any time, especially where earnings are weak.
10/19 -- The weekly commentary explains our view here, but to sum it up, we see the bounce continuing in the short term, but a likelihood that a more lengthy and serious adjustment has only just begun. We still believe portfolio managers are long too much US equity and are adjusting their view of equity valuations in light of the end of QE, the pending rise in interest rates, and global economics that may be slowing.
One minute charts look good to break upward this week (IWM already has) and momentum is turning up from the lower extremes. But, long term trends may be turning down. We continue to draw perspective from the comparison to 2000 when the Internet boom 'adjusted' to a valuation some 30% below the peak over about six months.
The full Weekly Commentary is now updated at www.RHLcapital.com
00B SPY 1-minute
00C IWM - 1 min
00C QQQ - 1 min
00D Volatility Index 1-min
01A DIA - 30 min
01B - DIA one-year
02A SPY - 30-min
02B SPY - Daily one-year
03A QQQ - 30 min