CHANNELIST

Richard Lehman Has Had Over 25 FollowersPrevious "Hall of Fame" ChartList Author Rank: 31 Followers: 47 Votes: 68 Years Member: 8 Last Update: 31 July 2014, 16:38 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Market Timing

Detailed Weekly Commentary from our charts

Welcome to the ''Channelist' (formerly Trend Channel Magic) -- an all-ETF list of charts with trend channels and momentum indicators in time frames from minutes to years. CHARTS DON'T HAVE TO BE COMPLEX TO BE USEFUL. THE CHANNELS ON THE ONE-MINUTE CHARTS WILL SHOW YOU TRENDS AND BREAKS QUICKER THAN ANY OTHER CHART TECHNIQUE YOU CAN FIND.

Also, you can view our weekly commentary (based on these charts) at http://www.rhlcapital.com/page-1075161

Our trend channels are predicated on the belief that group behavior creates discernible trends in all time frames formed by parallel boundaries that provide dynamic support and resistance points (reference my book on the subject 'Far From Random'). Watch these trends and be amazed by the accuracy frequently displayed by the channel lines. If you have to wait days or weeks for moving average crosses or other indicators, you can never get into a trade in time. We have found these charts to spot trend breaks and true support and resistance points quicker and more accurately than any other chart patterns or signals -- bar none. There is too much 'noise' in individual stocks to see the trends, so we chart only ETFs, though they can be used to determine the sector or market direction before jumping into a specific stock.

> 1- minute charts on DIA, SPY, IWM, and VIX are listed first for extreme near term analysis
> 30-minute charts form Short Term trends
> Daily charts form Long Term trends
> 'Minichannels' form inside most trends in all time frames

Disclaimer: As a Registered Adviser, our comments here are for educational purposes and should not be construed in any way as offering investment advice or recommending a specific security.

Less

00A DIA One-minute

7/31 -- Waning momentum finally hit the tipping point and a hefty round of selling ensued. The good news is that it had a capitulative tone to it and did stop at support lines on a number of long term charts. The bad news is that VIX spiked over 17 and remained there, short term and one-minute trends are down, and momentum has now clearly rolled over to the downside.

The jitters that everyone feels about meager growth, the QE wind-down, and a looming interest rate rise are universal and it was no surprise that some profit-taking was in order. A bounce may well occur, but the problem is that every one of a million portfolio managers is thinking the same thing and even a slight reduction in the equity allocation by that many people becomes self-perpetuating and can cause a significant ripple in the trends.

One notable uptick today: UNG broke upward on the short term chart with momentum now turning up and may thus have bottomed for now.

7/30 pm -- A bounce began today on the positive GDP number but faded, leaving the four major averages still near their lower channel lines on the one-minute charts. That leaves DIA in its downtrend and IWM in its horizontal one.

The market is losing momentum. Short term (30-minute) uptrends are breaking on DIA and SPY and stochastics indicators on the long term charts have turned downward. VIX is not retreating. An early Fall may be upon us.

7/30 am -- GDP good but inflation bad. The one-minute charts are falling to support this morning, VIX is rising, and DIA has actually now broken its short term uptrend on the 30-minute charts. Watch closely for breaks -- this market is very skittish.

7/27 -- The morning sell-off served as follow-through from Friday, taking DIA down to its support line on the one-minute charts. SPY and QQQ stopped a bit short of support, but IWM went through support to double bottom at last week's low. Then all bounced. The bounce broke out of all four red minichannels on the one-minute charts,so the market looks to be regaining its footing, t

00B SPY 1-minute

00C IWM - 1 min

00C QQQ - 1 min

00D Volatility Index 1-min

01A DIA - 30 min

1

01B - DIA one-year

2

02A SPY - 30-min

1

02B SPY - Daily one-year

2

03A QQQ - 30 min

1

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