CHANNELIST

Richard Lehman Has Had Over 50 FollowersPrevious "Hall of Fame" ChartList Author Rank: 37 Followers: 53 Votes: 100 Years Member: 9 Last Update: 24 October 2014, 14:17 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Market Timing

Detailed Weekly Commentary from our charts

Welcome to the ''Channelist' (formerly Trend Channel Magic) -- an all-ETF list of charts with trend channels and momentum indicators in time frames from minutes to years. CHARTS DON'T HAVE TO BE COMPLEX TO BE USEFUL. THE CHANNELS ON THE ONE-MINUTE CHARTS WILL SHOW YOU TRENDS AND BREAKS QUICKER THAN ANY OTHER CHART TECHNIQUE YOU CAN FIND.

Also, you can view our weekly commentary (based on these charts) at http://www.rhlcapital.com/page-1075161

Our trend channels are predicated on the belief that group behavior creates discernible trends in all time frames formed by parallel boundaries that provide dynamic support and resistance points (reference my book on the subject 'Far From Random'). Watch these trends and be amazed by the accuracy frequently displayed by the channel lines. If you have to wait days or weeks for moving average crosses or other indicators, you can never get into a trade in time. We have found these charts to spot trend breaks and true support and resistance points quicker and more accurately than any other chart patterns or signals -- bar none. There is too much 'noise' in individual stocks to see the trends, so we chart only ETFs, though they can be used to determine the sector or market direction before jumping into a specific stock.

> 1- minute charts on DIA, SPY, IWM, and VIX are listed first for extreme near term analysis
> 30-minute charts form Short Term trends
> Daily charts form Long Term trends
> 'Minichannels' form inside most trends in all time frames

Disclaimer: As a Registered Adviser, our comments here are for educational purposes and should not be construed in any way as offering investment advice or recommending a specific security.

Less

00A DIA One-minute

10/23 -- Across the board, the one-minute and short term charts show that the bounce has broken upward, though it bent to a lesser upward slope now. We are high in the channels again, so a little backing off is starting to occur, but the near term trend is up and sharp. Some things (like Biotechs) are already at new highs! Longer term is still dicey...and remember, the market did this in 2000 only to peak in mid November and go to new lows by year-end.

10/22 -- Momentum has indeed picked up to the upside as one-minute charts all break upward in well-defined minichannels and volatility crashes back down accordingly. There still looks like upside room, particularly in the harder it areas, but it could get choppy again at any time, especially where earnings are weak.

10/19 -- The weekly commentary explains our view here, but to sum it up, we see the bounce continuing in the short term, but a likelihood that a more lengthy and serious adjustment has only just begun. We still believe portfolio managers are long too much US equity and are adjusting their view of equity valuations in light of the end of QE, the pending rise in interest rates, and global economics that may be slowing.

One minute charts look good to break upward this week (IWM already has) and momentum is turning up from the lower extremes. But, long term trends may be turning down. We continue to draw perspective from the comparison to 2000 when the Internet boom 'adjusted' to a valuation some 30% below the peak over about six months.

The full Weekly Commentary is now updated at www.RHLcapital.com

00B SPY 1-minute

00C IWM - 1 min

00C QQQ - 1 min

00D Volatility Index 1-min

01A DIA - 30 min

1

01B - DIA one-year

2

02A SPY - 30-min

1

02B SPY - Daily one-year

2

03A QQQ - 30 min

1

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