$Exceptional Elliott Bear The US$ plunge in process to kill T-bonds

Eduardo Mirahyes Has Had Over 50 Followers Rank: 18 Followers: 76 Votes: 172 Years Member: 7 Last Update: 31 August 2014, 15:22 Categories: Elliott Wave Analysis
Market Timing


Aug 31 Note the article in this weekend's FT citing the trend-following crowd is now expecting the Dollar rally to continue to the Sky, just as it's reversing...one thing is for sure Currency volatility will come roaring back, and the entire plunge is the dollar is already in process was set off by the plunge in equities, only taking a breather rather than extending to the upside

Aug 29 The Effects of the Plunging US Dollar, the winners & losers, just posted on Exceptional-Bear.com,

Aug 24 New Post on Exceptional-Bear.com reviews the the Plunge in process, compared to previous the Alternating fractal Supercycle (II) & the previewing fractal Cycle Wave IV Also featured is the short term a-b-c patten on the hourly and 2-hour candlesticks.

Aug 22 Below in the Dow hourly and 2-hour you see our projection for wave b of an a-b-c wave ii (upside correction to a larger bearish trend)

Aug 21 Below you see the chart for XIV to resonate call option buying, parallels the SPX, to indicate a new euphoric higher high before the plunge, to sucker-in the last of the hold-outs In the 2 hour Dow candles you see the uppermost Diag II (bearish)has been retraced, no more upside required, the indices can now plunge like a Hot knife through butter to Dow 10,570, the next support as shown on the Monthly Dow below likely the bottom likely coinciding with October low...Small Stocks of the RUT have likewise retraced the first touch point of the Diag II (red for long bearish trajectory ahead)

Aug 20 See Dow 1-Hr chart 5 waves complete C of an a-b-c reversal, minimum drop noted in red dashed line

Aug 19 -
Timer Digest DOW ( for performance tracking only) (see 1 hour Dow Below)
Cash since Friday Aug 15
Short the Dow at the opening Tuesday Aug 19 (close 16,838 Mon Aug 19)
Cover short & Buy long Dow limit 16,411

Sold LONG Dow @ 16,725 off open Fri, Aug 15
Long Dow @ 16,853.83, Wed, July 30


$ $1 aTMV - Inverse T-Bonds Daily

This is Elliott's 3-wave 'a-b base' , arrogantly discarded by Robert Prechter, its virtually ubiquitous, found at every reversal & and also after the small reversal of the Diag > see full write-up following this link
It explains my unique contributions to the previously stagnant Wave Principle....a subset of this a-b structure is found after the 4th wave to transcend magnitude at all degrees of trend....For EWI these do not exist, see quote in the footnotes of article above

$ $1 Indu 1 -hr

Here is the revised chart for the Dow...despite my assertion that the next move began the plunge the Diag II pattern was very tricky and appeared to be a degree lower and corrective rather than an impulse wave. We got all the other asset classes right and sold into this decline, now nearly over as explained in the call-out

$ $1 SPXU Drops to complete Diag II- 2 hour

Mar 12, 2014

the 2-hour inverse S&P, SPXU, beginning to gear-up to Rally, in the second bullish Diag II.

Feb 25, 2014
Above the 2-hour inverse S&P, SPXU, likely complete & ready to Rally, concurrent with the S&P?s plunge. The a-b is a transition phase, analogous to crown molding, which eases the eye's 'transition from vertical to horizontal', here from Bull to Bear. (and inversely in bear to bull in the Short ETFs)

Feb 24, 2014
The 2-hour INVERSE S&P chart is a lot clearer, here revised as the beginning of a new series of Bullish Diag IIin the short SPX
Feb 5, 2014
- The Inverse S&P 2-hour ready to Rally

SPXU is the inverse S&P, which is the same as shorting the ETF, without having to worry about dividends, or available stock for borrowing. Note there are two large, green Diag IIs to indicate the beginning of a long upside in the INVERSE S&P, meaning a long plunge in the S&P index. From an opening price of 70 on Wed 5, Feb, this inverse fund must plunge to at least 60, as long stocks stage a 'sucker's rally,' to lure investors back-in near top, just before the subsequent plunge. As you all know, the herd of investors only shorted just as the downside was complete, as we reversed to long for the minimum Swing Trade, bounce in other words, by the time the herd reacts, the move is over. Just as the cover of Barron's for the last three weeks has Money Managers in ridiculous poses, staged in front of the Wall Street Bronze Bull. Again the difference between a Bear Market Rally and an authentic Bull Run is found in its sub-divisions. Five Waves to the downside indicate a Bear Market in force since 2000, while the 3-wave moves to the upside, are a dead give-away of a 'sucker's rally', which always reverses into a much bigger plunge, to retrace, or backtrack over the previous upside entirely....

$ $1Dow 2-hour

June 16, 2014

Dow 2-hour chart shows the reversal in process to confirm our assertion of a false breakout. Three irregular tops are the max for wave D, these do NOT make a BULL Market, they only sucker-in the know-it-alls, who later hide their tails between their legs

$ $1RUT - Russel 2000 small-cap

Jul 16, 2014
The Small Stocks in the Russell 2000 have begun dropping second in line with utilities, they suffer the most casualties in a Bear Market due to insufficient working capital to continue as a going concern in an economic contraction

$ $1YANG - China Bear Weekly

Jul 7 - This chart shows YANG the inverse Shanghai Market completing an upside reversal, with volume Spike just last week, this should be a major winner

$ $2INDU - Monthly Candlesticks, long-term

June 7

After each increase in magnitude in a Bear Market Rally an irregular top follows to exceed the Orthodox Top ending the Bull Market in 2000.

In Wave A of the Diag II (red) the subdivisions are in intermediate degree, in Wave C the subdivisions are at Primary Degree, in this wave E the subdivisions after the echoing Diag II, are in Cycle Degree (I-IV)

$ $2Shanghai vs Emerging Markets Weekly

Jul 7- This chart compares the Emerging Markets collectively with its biggest component the China Market, second only to NY. both are dropping, but EM in a correction to the upside while China is in a Cycle degree Bear Market with a long way down,

$ $3INDU - Big Picture Monthly forecast plunge 10,570 (revised May 25, 2014)

Jul 7,

This is the Big Picture close up from the long term Century Chart...Diag II green for bullish begins the long Bull Market, the Diag II red signals the longer BEAR with a trough at the previous 4th wave of 1 lesser degree , and usually its extreme, at Dow 572 in Cycle Wave IV (aqua)

May 19, 2014
The CHART ABOVE IS HACKED, what you see occurs when I LOG-off, to see what it should look like please see Website http://www.exceptional-bear.com/71.html
March 21, 2014
The major revision in this Big Picture Dow chart is not A-B is required to reverse, the gearing-up via power laws substitute the extended trajectory between the converging lines to denote a degree higher or 4x the previous magnitude should be echoed as in Cycle Wave IV with two smaller Diag IIs (red) to confirm the plunge to Wave (A), both the values absolute Supercycle (IV) trough... Just as the shorter yardstick increases the length of the British coastline, similar to Cycle Wave IV its 50% fractal..see big picture chart
March 17, 2014
ere you witness the Diag II (red or green to denote Bearish or Bullish) a pattern which remains constant over time to power up the leap to Supercycle Magnitude in both Bull & Bear markets the particular wave personality becomes magnified, that is to say Bull Markets become far smoother, to apparent the the absence of risk. In Bear Markets the identical pattern accentuates inherent volatility.. the direction of huge price swings often alternates, while it scales to the same degree. This model derives from the long-term Elliott count different from all others, resulting form advances not recognized by others, these allow us to build better, more useful forecasts resulting in sounder financial decisions to compound returns...just up ahead is a minimum 50% plunge, only its velocity can deviate to occur over 9 months or within a week, like the 1987 Crash's 3-day free-fall.

Feb 18, 2014 - the likely Dow Diag > represents dramatic reversal

$ $CRB Weekly long-term Commodidites

Dec 10, 2013

Commodities down 10% in 2013 with 15 of the 24 components of the index down,...as you will see below in $CRB index and benchmark Brent Crude Oil, 1b1 both in a similar pattern as long Emerging Markets & T-bonds a BIG E-wave bounce at likely twice the previous magnitude, a Wave 2 Bear Market Rally, resembling a Bull Market in commodities, as stocks collapse. Inflation protection becomes a useless precaution in a Deflationary environment, and the returns will trump those of equities for likely a year to 18 months before these collapse.

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