$Exceptional Elliott Bear - Short-term, swing trade-pullback, before the long-e wave, to a
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May 22, 2013
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$SPX - Daily Candlesticks Magnified
May 15th is a Time-Cycle turn day , meaning that reversals will often,
keep time by extending into over bought or oversold territory, awaiting for these time reversals.This is only a short-term pullback, which will be followed by a much higher all-time high
For the Crash to accomplish its purpose, of withdrawing all stimulus, in addition to the overvaluation of an inflated dollar individual investors buy what insiders unload, these are typical of all major market TOPS.
May 2, 2013 THIS CHART UPDATED DAILY, updates found on chart call-outs
edited March 13, 2013
Here's a close-up of the
reciprocal S&P, viewed from the
'Winning Perspective'
Saturday, January 19, 2013
In a Panic the Baby gets thrown out with the bathwater
Our high target for the S&P has been met. Going forward,
long positions in all stocks are High Risk/Low Reward speculations.
All stocks, regardless of fundamental merits, will likely be liquidated in a wave of fear. In a Panic,
the Baby gets thrown out with the bathwater.
1b SPXU - inverse S&P 1-hour Bullish Diag II
May 2, 2013 THIS CHART UPDATED DAILY, this is a revised count indicating a bit more upside to the inverse S&P to complete wave 3 (green)
April 17, 2013 updates found on chart call-outs
March 13, 2013 Inverse S&P Hourly - Bullish Diag II (green) begins a LONG trajectory
Equity Indices to Plunge as Bear (inverse) Funds Rally; intermediate-term funds flow to Emerging Markets, gold and T-bonds
This chart confirms the structure of the Monthly charts and is
the most significant developmentof the last 12 months. Rather than a Diag >, which implies dramatic reversal ahead in a moribund move, a
Diag II (green) in
inverse ETFs is a far more conclusive confirmation of the Spike in all domestic inverse equity funds, including the VIX volatility index.
Long Emerging Market ETFsare positioned for a substantial (21-24% in levered EDC) intermediate-term
e-wave bounce to complete
wave 2(red). Once this trajectory completes, the Emerging Markets, like gold and T-Bonds will all turn sequentially long-term Bearish, likely concurrent with the dollar trough. As assets of all types are liquidated to raise cash to cover daily living expenses, deflation manifests as a surge in the dollar's value as all hard assets plummet from depressed demand and overwhelming supply. For another 9-12 months a massive
flow of funds out of US Stocks and the US Dollar will initially pour into Emerging Markets, gold and T-bonds.
This is
precisely the kind of Market that showcases Exceptional Bear's Timing & strategic Asset Allocation . The opportunity loss of buying the inverse S&P versus any one of our preferred asset classes would defray the cost your subscription many times over. While a subscription to Exceptional Bear may not make you rich, it will
pay for itself and prevent catastrophic losses.
1ba $VIX - 2 hour Candlesticks,
May 2, 2013
The $VIX is the volatility index, which moves inverse the S&P even more extremely than SPXU, to reflect an
alternating SWING between 'FEAR' and COMPLACENCY in sentiment. As Elliott described in the Wave Principle, markets characteristically move from
extremely oversold & undervalued to the opposite,
extremely overbought & overvalued, like the Swing of a pendulum - only settling at the equilibrium, described by economists after the momentum exhausts itself.
May 1, 2013
New! $VIX 2-hour, a bit off from TVIX its tradable counterpart
1c2 TMF - Big Picture Weekly Long T-bonds
April 15, 2013
Sold remaining 1/3 pos TMF at 74 off open (April 15)
Feb 5, 2013 continued from above
Exceptional Bear offers daily trading signals accompanied with candlestick Elliott charts by subscription, which will allow you to profit from this major reversal. Imagine what your stock account would look like, if you had bought bear funds at the beginning of 2008...You would now be independently wealthy.
Even better, if instead of having
bought & held these inverse ETFs, that you had traded partial positions, say 1/2 or 1/3. You would scale-out your inverse funds into
highly oversold panics, and buy back near the end of the false rally to follow.
Applied with
Exceptional Asset Allocation & precision trading signals, this strategy, would have compounded your profits nearly 300%
instead of just accruing the 38% Market plunge as profit, assuming you carried no leverage, like our Pension accounts in 2008-2009. Our Trader accounts fared nearly 50% better,
although there was also more volatility to bear.
Less than 1% of investors made any money in the 2008-2009 plunge,
each time history repeat itself, the price goes up for the losers, who remain conditioned
'buy & hold' like Pavlov's dogs.
On the other hand, a few, well-informed investors, who were able to adapt to the new Bearish environment, not only survived, but experienced major windfalls.
This Wave B plunge is a reply of the previous market fractal on steroids For just a few, it will be the most exhilarating ride of a lifetime to date. This is the equivalent to a dress rehearsal for the cataclysmic
'Noah event' described by Benoit Mandelbrot. What's more. the
risk of remaining in the Market is unmeasurable under the current paradigm. This precisely the type of systemic risk that
makes or breaks investors for a lifetime.
1c3 TMF - 2 hour LONG
We have a limit to buy at 36.5, and will likely get filled tomorrow
1d $S&P 500 Weekly Supercycle Wave (C)
March 24, 2013 - the Revised Big Picture, Weekly S&P
the two-step , Primary to Supercycle Transition.
March 13, 2013 - the Big Picture Weekly S&P
the two-step , Primary to Supercycle Transition.
Originating at the 2007 Wave-(B) Top, is the entire Supercycle
Wave (C) . Terminal
C-waves are identical to inverted bullish structures, referred to as
impulse waves in Elliott.
Diagonal Triangles type II, (Diag II)s
(red to indicate Bearish) for a maximum of three, are the
prelude to wave 1 (red). A singular
Diag II signals the beginning of a long trajectory. Two, bearish
Diag IIs of the same degree in series, greatly compound the length and severity of the eventual trajectory. In aggregate, they herald the beginning of an extremely long, violent collapse.
Degree of Trend Morphing
At the bottom left of both the S&P and Dow Monthly charts you see a
small, Bullish, Diag II (green), fading into the horizon due to Stockcharts time/data limitation. This structure heralded the highly elongated segment of the Great Bull Market ended 2000, equal to nearly 1000% appreciation over the span of 18 years. The current structures are its
reciprocal Bearish counterpart, which prelude a
Market Free-Fall. If just one such small,
Diag II (green) presaged the longest Bull Market in history, how much more severe must the plunge to follow two colossal
Bearish Diag IIs (red) be?
After the second
Diag II (red) , a
transition in Degree of Trend, bumped up the magnitude, between December 2009 and February 2011 to Cycle Degree, as indicated in the call out. Next the magnitude morphed-up another degree to Supercycle Degree just concluded.
1d $SPX Monthly; Degree of Trend Transitions
APRIL 20, 2013
Although the S&P 500 is up roughly 10% year-to-date, the index is showing all the signs
of an
exhausted market, with a rise of less than 1% over the past month. In sharp
contrast earlier in the year, double-digit daily moves were the rule.
As you see below, the excess over upper estimate for the S&P of 1560, has been
entirely given back, or retraced.
APRIL 15, 2013We?re off, but since our inverse indices have ?jumped the gun? they need to back track one more time. This gives us a chance to lighten-up, and lower our cost price. This is where daily trading signals pay for themselves..with specific limits
March 27, 2013 For over a week the S&P has been attempting to close above major resistance just above 1560, yesterday it closed at
1563, which in turn became today's HIGH.
March 26, 2013 For over a week the S&P has been attempting to close above major resistance above 1561, while the intra-day high climbed higher several times, it continues to close just below 1561. This action is
like fleas trapped in a jar, they keep banging their heads against the lid for a while. But not long after, you can remove the lid, as they are
conditioned and no longer seek jump out. This
tired, topping Market has similar characteristics.
Bullish, Buy & Hold investors, who have been conditioned in the long bull market must now be re-programmed to the realities of a Bear Market...humans persist far longer than fleas
March 24, 2013 - the Revised Big Picture, Monthly S&P
the two-step , Primary to Supercycle Transition. When the larger structures follows the smaller it indicates an Up-morphing in degree, the inverse of the down-morphing from 1996 to 2000.
Reversal from Triple Top
Below you see a zoomed view of the revised Monthly S&P chart. The c-wave in the upper right corner is the conclusion of the long rally from the 2009 trough, signaled by the bullish Diag II (green),
2 $INDU - Monthly Candlesticks, long-term
Big Picture Dow Monthly Chart March 24, 2013 Identical 2-step transition to Supercycle Degree as in the S&P
Introduction to the Big Picture Dow Monthly Chart Feb 24, 2013
We are in a
Supercycle Wave (IV) Bear Market, aptly named for its
Super-sized proportions, which began in March 2000, concurrent with the tech bubble bust. Relatively speaking,
Supercycle Wave (IV) is of the same magnitude & severity as its sibling
Supercycle Wave (II) , which began with the
Panic of 1907 and ended in the 1932 trough.
In the meantime, there will be plenty of openings to opportunistically compound your capital by taking advantage of the higher volatility consistent with the Bear Market at the higher degree of trend. The Market is a
fractal, as defined by Benoit Mandelbrot, the father of fractals. This means the structure of
the whole is echoed in its parts and sub-parts, while
remaining the same, no matter how much it is blown-up or scaled-down.
Cycle Wave II extended from 1937 to 1946, and
Cycle Wave IV spanned 1964 to 1977. The current Bear Market is of
Supercycle Degree, one degree of magnitude or trend higher.
2 $VIX - Weekly
April 20,, 2013
Ultra-Low VIX Sentiment really is a Red Flag
As market indices reach record highs, investors remain far too complacent. Under the
guise of low volatility, the $VIX has morphed two degrees of trend higher, in the
identical pattern as the reciprocal long indices.
Market ?fear? sentiment has been highly unresponsive of late, as record highs followed
one after another. In mid-March, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of volatility
and fear, stood at a five-year low at 11.05, before inching back up to 12.84. As you see
in our weekly $VIX chart the Diag II in process, heralds a long Bull Market in volatility:
and a corresponding Panic & Crash in Stocks! Ultra-low readings from this ?fear gauge?
now raise a red flag. They definitely signal investors that have grown far too bullish, and
fearlessly complacent. Note the identical 2-stage transition as seen inverted as bearish
in all stock indices
April 5, 2013
The mechanism by which
Degree of Trend Morphing occurs for
two degrees consecutively to denote
the longest Supercycle Wave to follow, is just one of
MY UNIQUE CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE, found nowhere else! Note the
reciprocal structures in the S&P and the DOW. While the VIX enters a HUGE Bull Market, the long indices concurrently enter into an
unprecedented Papa Bear Market, only experienced after the 1929 CRASH in the 20th century. Prior to that, in the process of the second Transition the 1929 Crash occurred at
Cycle or Mama Bear Degree! Only the final segment from the 4thQ 1930 to the 1932 trough, was at Supercycle, Papa Bear Degree. It had 3X the capital destruction effect as the CRASH
Feb 3, 2013
The US volatility index, the VIX, often described as Wall Street's
'fear gauge', retreated to a long-term low, after touching its highest level since July, followin
2 The last Bull Market impulse Wave ended 1996
March 13, 2013
The last Bull Market impulse Wave ended 1996
Above is the last Bullish segment within the Great Bull Market. As Benoit Mandelbrot was fond of saying all charts look the same.
Without the legend, you can't tell if you're looking at a 10-min or a 10-year interval chart all have similar scaling...In this chart you get a bird's eye view of the Wave Principle and its fractals. Five impulse waves up are labeled 1-5, while corrections are denoted in alphabetically.
In order of severity, Supercycle is currently the highest degree of trend on the horizon.
The Bullish trajectory between 1982 and 2000 operated at Supercycle in practice, similar to the Bear Market spanning 1929 and 1932. Bull Markets particularly of higher degrees, are characterized by extended trajectories of low volatility, thus make the ideal
'Buy & Hold' environments. Bear Markets, on the contrary, reverse directions frequently, and are far more volatile by their very nature.
One Degree below Supercycle is Cycle Degree. During the 20th Century
Cycle Wave II extended from 1937 to 1946, and
Cycle Wave IV spanned 1964 to 1977. The lowest relevant degree of trend is Primary, which is the baseline degree viewed on weekly & daily intervals, and is in effect most of the time
To illustrate
degrees of trend, fractals and scaling, the box outlined in blue is wave 4. If each candle represented 6-7 months, instead of a week, this would entail a Cycle Degree Bear Market,
if each candle represented approximately 10-12 months it could qualify as a Supercycle Bear Market similar to the one in process.
In any 5-wave structure, Wave 2 corrects wave 1 and wave 4 corrects wave 3. Most often its retracement is the Fibonacci 0.618% of the previous impulse wave, measured on the vertical, which tends to coincide with the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. In other words, the current Bear Market should trough in the range of D
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