$Exceptional Elliott Bear: a bounce back to the top required of Bubbles

Eduardo Mirahyes Has Had Over 50 Followers Rank: 18 Followers: 76 Votes: 182 Years Member: 6 Last Update: 29 July 2014, 16:25 Categories: Elliott Wave Analysis
Market Timing


Jul 26 - Make sure you read the last post on Exceptional-Bear.com updates on timeline for T-bonds, Gold & Emerging Markets vs the S&P

Jul 26 - New Post Wave (A) to the trough mapped-out, Exceptional-Bear.com - Stretched end-to-end the remaining (A)-(B)-(C) Bear Market presents tremendous opportunity to compound capital with a price trajectory nearly 3x the Bull Market from 1982 to 2000 in just 12 years or so, Rated the top bear at mid-year by Timer Digest

Jul 25 the 2hour chart shows 5 waves down are complete and no higher upsides possible after three irregular tops

Jul 23 - the rotation out of Utilities last week and the now OUT of The Russell 2000, the Dow & S&P

Jul 21 - Second Diag II in the Dow reinforces & confirms the long bearish trajectory in its infancy

Jul 18 - Spotlight on Real Estate, Just posted on Exceptional Bear.com...imploding Chinese Economy to send shock waves reverberating globally to result in 'blood on Stock Exchanges' When would 'NOW' be a good time to position your portfolio to profit? Li Ka-Shing, Asia's wealthiest and most powerful man concurs with our forecast, he's just completed the sale of all Mainland China Real Estate. learn more.

Jul 17 - VIX confirms the reversal in the Dow & SPX as a Bearish Diag II, Spike ahead in inverse funds

Jul 16 - New is the updated chart of the $RUT, Russell 200 index of small-cap stocks, following the lead from utilities have REVERSED to BEARish

Jul 14 - Make sure you read the post on Jesse Livermore, he was an ace short seller this is his kind of market & ours...

Jul 13 - about to post Jesse Livermore ace short-seller, why this is his kind of Market, he made 2 fortunes and in 1907 at the start of the Supercycle (II) and with the 1929 Crash when he was worth over $100m equivalent to $13.9Bn in 2014 dollars, why Pensions with conventional allocations are highly vulnerable, bank investment departments will disappoint & much more

Jul 11 - The Big Picture Weekly & Monthly charts of all major As


$ $1Dow 2-hour

June 16, 2014

Dow 2-hour chart shows the reversal in process to confirm our assertion of a false breakout. Three irregular tops are the max for wave D, these do NOT make a BULL Market, they only sucker-in the know-it-alls, who later hide their tails between their legs

$ $1RUT - Russel 2000 small-cap

Jul 16, 2014
The Small Stocks in the Russell 2000 have begun dropping second in line with utilities, they suffer the most casualties in a Bear Market due to insufficient working capital to continue as a going concern in an economic contraction

$ $1Shanghai vs Emerging Markets Weekly

Jul 7- This chart compares the Emerging Markets collectively with its biggest component the China Market, second only to NY. both are dropping, but EM in a correction to the upside while China is in a Cycle degree Bear Market with a long way down,

$ $1YANG - China Bear Weekly

Jul 7 - This chart shows YANG the inverse Shanghai Market completing an upside reversal, with volume Spike just last week, this should be a major winner

$ $2INDU - Monthly Candlesticks, long-term

June 7

After each increase in magnitude in a Bear Market Rally an irregular top follows to exceed the Orthodox Top ending the Bull Market in 2000.

In Wave A of the Diag II (red) the subdivisions are in intermediate degree, in Wave C the subdivisions are at Primary Degree, in this wave E the subdivisions after the echoing Diag II, are in Cycle Degree (I-IV)

$ $3INDU - Big Picture Monthly forecast plunge 10,570 (revised May 25, 2014)

Jul 7,

This is the Big Picture close up from the long term Century Chart...Diag II green for bullish begins the long Bull Market, the Diag II red signals the longer BEAR with a trough at the previous 4th wave of 1 lesser degree , and usually its extreme, at Dow 572 in Cycle Wave IV (aqua)

May 19, 2014
The CHART ABOVE IS HACKED, what you see occurs when I LOG-off, to see what it should look like please see Website http://www.exceptional-bear.com/71.html
March 21, 2014
The major revision in this Big Picture Dow chart is not A-B is required to reverse, the gearing-up via power laws substitute the extended trajectory between the converging lines to denote a degree higher or 4x the previous magnitude should be echoed as in Cycle Wave IV with two smaller Diag IIs (red) to confirm the plunge to Wave (A), both the values absolute Supercycle (IV) trough... Just as the shorter yardstick increases the length of the British coastline, similar to Cycle Wave IV its 50% fractal..see big picture chart
March 17, 2014
ere you witness the Diag II (red or green to denote Bearish or Bullish) a pattern which remains constant over time to power up the leap to Supercycle Magnitude in both Bull & Bear markets the particular wave personality becomes magnified, that is to say Bull Markets become far smoother, to apparent the the absence of risk. In Bear Markets the identical pattern accentuates inherent volatility.. the direction of huge price swings often alternates, while it scales to the same degree. This model derives from the long-term Elliott count different from all others, resulting form advances not recognized by others, these allow us to build better, more useful forecasts resulting in sounder financial decisions to compound returns...just up ahead is a minimum 50% plunge, only its velocity can deviate to occur over 9 months or within a week, like the 1987 Crash's 3-day free-fall.

Feb 18, 2014 - the likely Dow Diag > represents dramatic reversal

$ $aVIX - Volatility Index Weekly since 2007

Jan 25, 2013

This chart shows the ONLY SuperCycle Bull Market (think of it as the Super-sized coke at 7-11) This implies a bearish plunge of 50% for the long stock indices, before another likely, upside bounce. As you see each time the plunge pattern repeats, the stakes get higher..for most these will be losses, but for a few well-informed, they represent a financial home-run, to augment capital & wealth as the dollar's purchasing power reverts back 30 years to nickel candy bars...those with CASH will be able to buy any asset, including stocks at 10% of current prices, and Ride them up in a Repeat of the Roaring 20's, a Bear Market Rally of like magnitude...for those unfamiliar with Elliott, Bull Markets progress in 5's like advanced mammals have 5 fingers and toes, while lower mammals & more primitive flowers have only 3 petals or toes..A Bear Market Rally is the Fake Bull Market which climbs as an integral part of the Bear Market, between the two plunges. Its the 'Eye of the Hurricane', which results in investors complacently, so they can lose TWICE, shrinking the Money Supply to in a Deflationary Depression..yes markets are self-correcting just like nature, it is harsh.

Dec 30, 2013

The $VIX is MOST Bullish all Charts, ever about to skyrocket

In last week's piece we discussed the value of the inside information provided through an Elliott lens, to those with a good eye for repeating patterns. From this perspective, the first tremors should be reflected in the $VIX, as a 'just in case' notion. As you see although the $VIX is up from the post-crisis lows, asset protection remains cheapest, when just prior to recognition of its critical importance.

Volatility: the fledgling, Supercycle Bull Market
What you see above is the upside transition which follows a series of bullish Diag IIs, at several degrees of trend, to compound the violence and force of the Spike to follow. As you can see in the long-term Weekly chart of the $VIX, which mirrors t

$ $bVIX - Daily since 2014

$ $CRB Weekly long-term Commodidites

Dec 10, 2013

Commodities down 10% in 2013 with 15 of the 24 components of the index down,...as you will see below in $CRB index and benchmark Brent Crude Oil, 1b1 both in a similar pattern as long Emerging Markets & T-bonds a BIG E-wave bounce at likely twice the previous magnitude, a Wave 2 Bear Market Rally, resembling a Bull Market in commodities, as stocks collapse. Inflation protection becomes a useless precaution in a Deflationary environment, and the returns will trump those of equities for likely a year to 18 months before these collapse.

$ $Four Asset Classes on Weekly overlapping Timeline

April 29, 2014

This chart provides a Big Picture of World Market: very simplistically Stocks denoted by the SPX have topped long-term and are on the way down to a major trough, although inversely correlated most of the time, T-bonds will initially pull-back concurrent with the plunge in stocks, before continuing their Meteoric trajectory, Gold, representative of commodities still have a long way to drop... Emerging Markets, have yet to bottom, before beginning a Rally illustrated in the EDC Weekly chart included

March 10, 2014
the individual charts of this composite can be viewed individually in these free public Stockcharts. Gold is a proxy for Commodities & Emerging Markets are highly correlated with commodities...these have a bit to drop yet, we intend to buy them at the trough

March 9, 2014
In this chart you see the four major asset classes, US Stocks, T-Bonds, Emerging Markets, & Gold representative of commodities...the optimal timing is explained in the new posting on Exceptional- Bear.com 3-D..

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