$Exceptional Elliott Bernankestein's Godzilla Bear Market

Eduardo Mirahyes Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 50 Followers Rank: 20 Followers: 78 Votes: 173 Years Member: 7 Last Update: 24 October 2014, 16:05 Categories: Elliott Wave Analysis
ETFs
Market Timing

Exceptional-Bear.com

Overview -Expect a Major Crash during the holiday season, when least expected. Because of Fed Manipulation to force the market artificially higher in 2009, the wave magnitude has incremented to 4x the previous magnitude to Grand Supercycle Degree, analogous to a Godzilla Bear Market. That means that the trough from this cataclysm will likely overlap the 1932 trough. To maintain a simple structure, & alternate with a complex, Supercycle Wave (II) ended 1932.
The shape will likely begin with a duplicate, lower degree Diag II structure, to preview & confirm the downside, just as in 1929 & 1965. In '29 the first leg of such was the Crash, while '65 occurred at 25% magnitude, 2 degrees of magnitude lower and plunged 50% from top to bottom.
Over 3-4 years the market will likely find a far lower trough than I previously estimated. In the absence of manipulation the logical trough would have been the 1965 Cycle Wave IV A, (the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree)..because of far higher magnitude, even this first jolt will be far more severe than anyone expects....

Bottom line: the last opportunity to safely liquidate is likely before Thanksgiving. With the collapse in stocks, bonds too will cave-in, igniting a self-perpetuating run on the dollar, so foreign investors will lose more in currency translation, than the pittance they earn on T-bond yield...T-bonds are extremely dangerous...in my opinion, the Euro is a far better option for Cash, its beginning a Bull Run in the 5th wave, after a magnitude transition, analogous to that Bull Run in US stocks from 1982 to shoot-up in the longest Bull Market in history ended 2000. From a logical standpoint QE is relatively new in the Eurozone, while in the US it's been going on without much pause for over 14 years.

The idea here is to show the Big Picture, Global Market. As the US Market plunges the Euro will surge. The catalyst is the declining value of the US

Less

$ $ 1a Euro - Philadelphia ($XEU) 2

Oct 22 - This Euro chart shows the identical increment in magnitude after the 4th wave to transcend to a higher magnitude, this means the 5th wave will be by far the longest, likely 10x longer than the Euro's appreciation against the $US to date. Meanwhile the overvalued dollar is caving in.

Oct 9 Nascent Euro Bull Market the 5th wave Diag II means a gearing up in magnitude for a long stretch, analogous to the US stock market 1982 to 2000. For those extremely conservative, sell all US stocks & bonds at this upcoming peak a week or two away & buy German Bonds for a small yield along with a far larger currency appreciation at minimal risk...US Dollar will plunge with the Crash.

$ $ 1a INDU - arithmetic scale

see call-out update on Oct 16

$ $ 1a INDU - Monthly Candlesticks, long-term 2

Sept 27-

This chart shows the Big Picture Elliott Wave Count , in the Dow Monthly, free of Robert Prechter's corruptions...The bearish, Diag II shown in red is the most bearish of all patterns. It indicates a long bearish trajectory to follow, of 2x higher magnitude than Wave C bottom in 2009, and having 4x the capital-destructive capacity.

The chart above in demonstrates the gearing-down of the Bull Market prior to completion in 2000, just as we would downshift in a manual car prior to coming to a complete stop at a red light. The Market's baseline magnitude is Primary degree, where it ended in the orthodox top in March 2000. From 2000, the magnitude progressively transcended prior to each down leg. The trajectory of Wave C lengthened primarily by climbing higher in the previous Wave Birregular top, to present the illusion of major technical support in the vicinity of Dow 6000. Nascent wave E, the product of a similar wave D irregular top, is the long trajectory required to complete Supercycle wave (A) , of a Complex (A)-(B)-(C) Bear Market. Each down leg of the larger, Bearish (red) Diag II initiates with a lower degree fractal Diag II, similar to the holographic Universe. We can expect Wave E to follow the identical pattern.

$ $ 1a SPXU Drops to complete Diag II- 2 hour

Mar 12, 2014

the 2-hour inverse S&P, SPXU, beginning to gear-up to Rally, in the second bullish Diag II.


Feb 25, 2014
Above the 2-hour inverse S&P, SPXU, likely complete & ready to Rally, concurrent with the S&P?s plunge. The a-b is a transition phase, analogous to crown molding, which eases the eye's 'transition from vertical to horizontal', here from Bull to Bear. (and inversely in bear to bull in the Short ETFs)

Feb 24, 2014
The 2-hour INVERSE S&P chart is a lot clearer, here revised as the beginning of a new series of Bullish Diag IIin the short SPX
Feb 5, 2014
- The Inverse S&P 2-hour ready to Rally

SPXU is the inverse S&P, which is the same as shorting the ETF, without having to worry about dividends, or available stock for borrowing. Note there are two large, green Diag IIs to indicate the beginning of a long upside in the INVERSE S&P, meaning a long plunge in the S&P index. From an opening price of 70 on Wed 5, Feb, this inverse fund must plunge to at least 60, as long stocks stage a 'sucker's rally,' to lure investors back-in near top, just before the subsequent plunge. As you all know, the herd of investors only shorted just as the downside was complete, as we reversed to long for the minimum Swing Trade, bounce in other words, by the time the herd reacts, the move is over. Just as the cover of Barron's for the last three weeks has Money Managers in ridiculous poses, staged in front of the Wall Street Bronze Bull. Again the difference between a Bear Market Rally and an authentic Bull Run is found in its sub-divisions. Five Waves to the downside indicate a Bear Market in force since 2000, while the 3-wave moves to the upside, are a dead give-away of a 'sucker's rally', which always reverses into a much bigger plunge, to retrace, or backtrack over the previous upside entirely....

$ $ 1a US Dollar Index - Cash Settle (EOD) ($USD) 2

$ $ 1a US Dollar Index - Cash Settle (EOD) ($USD) 2 2

$ $ 1aa INDU - Big Picture Monthly forecast plunge 10,570 (revised May 25, 2014) 2

Sept 29, 2014

This is the Big Picture close-up from the long term Century Chart...Diag II green for bullish begins the long Bull Market, the Diag II red signals the longer BEAR with a trough at Dow 572 the low of Cycle Wave IV (aqua)...This chart shows the Century Channel which contains the wave count until the current wave (A) trough breaks through to widen the channel to allow for Grand Supercycle Degree to follow, at 50% high magnitude than the longest wave so far to the trough

$ $ 1ab Dow 2-hour 2 2

Oct 15 - Bearish Diag II means the beginning of a long bearish plunge, but first the uppermost Diag II was be retraced at its first touchpoint, and all the gaps in the chart filled in for a solid foundation from which to plunge..this means the lowest degree Diag II in as short a time increment as 10-min intervals, rarely examined by most Elliott Analysts

$ $ 1ac CRB Index Weekly long-term Commodidites

September 27, 2014

Commodities down 10% in 2013 with 15 of the 24 components of the index down,...as you will see below in $CRB index and benchmark Brent Crude Oil, 1b1 both in a similar pattern as long Emerging Markets & T-bonds a BIG E-wave bounce at likely twice the previous magnitude, a Wave 2 Bear Market Rally, resembling a Bull Market in commodities, as stocks collapse. Inflation protection becomes a useless precaution in a Deflationary environment, and the returns will trump those of equities for likely a year to 18 months before these collapse.

$ $ 1ac RUT - Russel 2000 small-cap Monthly

Sept 27, 2014

The Small Stocks in the Russell 2000 have begun dropping second in line with utilities, they suffer the most casualties in a Bear Market due to insufficient working capital to continue as a going concern in an economic contraction...this shows how small stocks typically do best in Bull markets but they get killed by the Bear Market like an animal which hasn't yet been weaned these small caps cant fend for themselves in a famine.

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