$Exceptional Elliott Bear - the collapse continues next week
$ $CRB Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index W (EOD)
Feb 28, 2014
False start for the CRB commodities index to echo the false start in Gold, before rising any higher a trough to the area of the red dashed line is required
$ $DJ Financials Index Monthly
Mar 5, 2014
This revised Financials Chart better fits the Big Picture Bear market, here beginning in 2001
Nov 24, 2013 Financials reversal overdue!
Feb 26, 2013
This chart would seem to indicate that the upside to the Supercycle (B) wave is complete, and Financials should begin dropping in Wave C, unlike the broader indices which still have a big bounce ahead after the avalanche about to start....a far worse scenario than I am forecasting at present.
$ $INDU - Daily (updated Mar 4, 2014)
Feb 24, 2014 -
the likely Dow Diag > represents dramatic reversal followed by 5 waves ...the of 5 complete...(see general comment in Chartnotes above) ahead the upside is very near complete..longs beyond this point are perilous hi risk/low return speculations
First bounce, either wave 2 or (iv) of a bearish, Diag II before a continuation of the one larger trend of wave 1, or wave I, a 'Flight to quality & safety', concurrent with a plunge in stocks & a levitation of Bond Prices.
Stocks always plunge via the scenic route... Just as Eugenie, the future Empress & wife of Napoleon III, when invited to make conjugal visits, replied 'the only way to the bedroom is through the Chapel'?similarly the only way down in wave 3 in the Dow, or up to wave iii in interest rates is via a bottom scraping, to retrace the entirety of wave 1 or i plus a bit more, as an irregular Top in the Dow, & irregular bottom in bond yield. Why? Because downside in the Dow, like the upside in interest rates, requires a transition to a higher degree of magnitude, of twice the magnitude as wave 1 in the Dow or wave i in bond yield.
Jan 24, 2014
The green arrow shows the likely bounce NEXT, before the long indices plunge even harder
Jan 4, 2014
Green Arrow shows the likely bounce up next, don't be dissuaded its just a head-fake, by all means trade it in other asset classes, the SPX & Dow are Crowded trades, for optimal asset allocation and swing trade expertise subscribe, the 2-hour charts are well worth it...above you have a sample in TMV & TMF long & Short levered Bonds..where we just reversed positions
Here is the newly updated Daily Dow chart where you see the Diag IIs continue to proliferate at degrees stair-stepped down to insure an explosive downside compounding the violence ahead.
Dec 13, 2013
This chart shows the REVERSAL at the 2007 Market TOP magnifie
$ $NASDQ 100 - $NDX
Feb 24, 2014 -
This chart shows the $NAZ is very near the bubble levels of 2000, and likely has just one month to complete the count before reversal...including the A-B Transition to Bearish
$ $SPX - Daily Candlesticks Magnified
Feb 24, 2014
The SPX also shows a 10 point candle upside likely remaining, from which the reversal could be violent & swift?A Diag II begins a long bearish move...this is the culmination of repetitions of the Diag II. at many degrees of trend, all of which magnify the violence. down in the next phase?this is the last chance to close all LONGS within reasonable RISK parameters, to prevent losing the gains of the last 3 weeks of longs since Feb began? get out by the close!
Feb 18, 2014 - only the a-b reversal back to bearish remains
The SPX shows in process of a bounce, back to the top, to lure-in side-lined investors once more, right at the TOP.
Jan 25, 2014
One day or less of likely downside before a bounce...this is the Market's Rhythm as well as the rhythm of life.
Jan 7, 2014
This chart is reversing into 5 WAVES DOWN of likely 50% plunge in Wave A purple in 2014, followed by a bounce back to this level in 2015
Dec 30, 2013
The e wave is synonymous with Wave A (purple) of an A-B Reversal
Dec 24, 2013
This is the daily S&P 500 chart showing the final, lowest degree reversal before the PLUNGE, a likely 50% DIVE to exceed the 2009 trough
Nov 23, 2013
This Daily S&P chart clearly shows the subdivisions within the Bearish Diag II (red); Waves 1 & 3 are impulse waves, waves 2 & 4 are corrective the Diag II signals the beginning of a long move, proportional to its own magnitude...that is to say this is not likely the Crash, but a major REVERSAL , which will be followed by a final rally to an all-time high...we are only half way through this Bear Market
September 23, 2014
Next cycle dates: Oct. 11th, Oct. 17th and Nov 4-8th---(MAJOR cycle hit! This could be THE HIGH or LOW)....The unrivaled, enduring essence
With stocks hitting all-time high last week, just one week after the 'Party Bull' appe
$ $SPXU Drops to complete Diag II- 2 hour
Feb 25, 2014
Above the 2-hour inverse S&P, SPXU, likely complete & ready to Rally, concurrent with the S&P?s plunge. The a-b is a transition phase, analogous to crown molding, which eases the eye?s ?transition from vertical to horizontal?, here from Bull to Bear. (and inversely in bear to bull in the Short ETFs)
Feb 24, 2014
The 2-hour INVERSE S&P chart is a lot clearer, here revised as the beginning of a new series of Bullish Diag IIin the short SPX
Feb 5, 2014
- The Inverse S&P 2-hour ready to Rally
SPXU is the inverse S&P, which is the same as shorting the ETF, without having to worry about dividends, or available stock for borrowing. Note there are two large, green Diag IIs to indicate the beginning of a long upside in the INVERSE S&P, meaning a long plunge in the S&P index. From an opening price of 70 on Wed 5, Feb, this inverse fund must plunge to at least 60, as long stocks stage a 'sucker's rally,' to lure investors back-in near top, just before the subsequent plunge. As you all know, the herd of investors only shorted just as the downside was complete, as we reversed to long for the minimum Swing Trade, bounce in other words, by the time the herd reacts, the move is over. Just as the cover of Barron's for the last three weeks has Money Managers in ridiculous poses, staged in front of the Wall Street Bronze Bull. Again the difference between a Bear Market Rally and an authentic Bull Run is found in its sub-divisions. Five Waves to the downside indicate a Bear Market in force since 2000, while the 3-wave moves to the upside, are a dead give-away of a 'sucker's rally', which always reverses into a much bigger plunge, to retrace, or backtrack over the previous upside entirely....My Stockcharts interface is hacked, so that I cannot see the chart as I comment on it...just as the vote counter only tallied my own votes last week for two days, and the th
$ $TMV Treas Bear- 2 hour
Feb 25, 2014
Abvoe you see the most likely path for inverse bonds, to peak in wave a of an a-b-c correction, we exit all inverse bond positions at 65.5, where the lowest gap is filled-in?we later buy back a partial position TMF, long bonds for the b wave, likely dropping to 58.5 min in the chart above
Feb 5, 2014 a SAMPLE of the profit aggregating Swing Trades in 2-hour charts here Inverse Bonds
As you see above in Inverse Bonds, the move to the upside is well under way. Despite the long-term upside in the price of bonds, due to plunging inversely-related yield, if we don't Swing Trade them, we are constantly making 'round trips' back to cost, or below. On the other hand, if we adopt a strategy which 'fits Bear Market Volatility' we continually lock-in profits. Concurrently, most others will lose their shirts, and drop-out as investors, entirely. The same as unemployment data, which do not take into account those who are no longer looking for work because they have given-up on ever finding a job, or are grossly under-employed, & relegated to minimum wage, menial tasks, just to survive. . Only by Swing Trading, is an annualized return, which exceeds the Market's Loss attainable, beyond leverage. Just as the coast of England dramatically increases as the yardstick is shortened from 200 meters to 50 meters, by 42%. A shortened yardstick is analogous to the drop time long-term time increments, from monthly to weekly.We instead trade the 2-hour charts which are only available by subscription. I they were free, who in his right mind would pay my rent? These signals are where the money is, any intelligent businessman will pay $1 to earn $2. Yet many of you intentionally forego thousands even hundreds of thousands to save a pittance As Einstein quipped, the definition of insanity, is continuing to do the same thing, while expecting a different result. The herd remains incorrigibly conditioned to a Bull M
$ $Yield 10-Year US Treasury Yield (EOD) ($UST10Y)
Feb 24, 2014
New chart on 10-year rates including the minimum low for 10-year T-bonds, see call-outs for the info normally found here
$ EDC - Emerging Markets Weekly in a bounce to 29 before reversing to 19.5
Feb 19, 2014
Emerging Markets & Gold must trough before Surging
They are currently inversely correlated, & slightly out of phase with developed markets. Before surging, the Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Index must first plunge to shake-out investors, becoming highly oversold & undervalued, before it can surge. While the EM index is in the process of bouncing, this is likely just a Sucker's Rally, similar to the one in Gold, which we shorted on Feb 18, at $1,320 after it jumped the gun before completing the reversal transition and trough. Both asset classes require a lower low to satisfy the Elliott trough. This is simply the Market's Elliott Rhythm at all degrees of trend. This pictorial representation in our weekly Emerging Markets chart and the Gold chart below. is worth 1000+ words. Only expert, Big Picture Elliott interpretation . provides clarity, to an otherwise murky conjecture.
Feb 5, 2014 - Emerging Markets likely bouncing to trough a smidgen lower
When US Stocks plunge, Emerging Markets will rally in a Wave 2 upside correction of the 3-year plunge. Last week's turmoil in Emerging Markets is in the process of reversing into a Sucker's rally, before the final plunge to the low, as indicated by the red & green arrows, along with the long wicks at the low, indicate a retracement & reversal in process
Jan 25, 2014
The Big News this week was the Emerging Markets Panic set off by the devaluation of the Argentine Peso as usual, the downside in Emerging Markets is likely over, at most a bit more follow through on Monday, before a dramatic reversal as shown on the Weekly EDC chart long This is the move that stumps nearly every investor who buys, just when he should be selling
Dec 30, 2013
Emerging Markets show a long-term Bear Market in process, in its first deceptive correction, nevertheless this boun
$ GOLD - Weekly This is the gold we use for Timer Digest out clients use GLL & UGL
Feb 25, 2014
Diag >s are ending structures to indicate a moribund move, to be followed by a dramatic reversal. The more repetitions the more violent the reversal
Feb 18, 2014 - We shorted GOLD at 1310; expect to buy LONG ~1150
Gold has much further to drop, this is a false start....we are in CASH but will short gold through the inverse ETF.
Jan 24, 2014
GOLD, soon a short, Swing trade
Gold has a minimum upside of 1885 to complete wave (iii) in a Diag > before the next major pull-back, it should then continue possibly to an all-time high before collapsing