$Exceptional Elliott BEAR - Santa Claus Rally is moving swiftly, likely complex a-b-c

Eduardo Mirahyes Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 50 Followers Rank: 20 Followers: 79 Votes: 122 Years Member: 7 Last Update: 18 December 2014, 18:06 Categories: Elliott Wave Analysis
ETFs
Market Timing

Exceptional-Bear.com

Overview -New, detailed explanation found under the second chart....Begin w/executive summary short & sweet link web address above. The reason to bet against the $USD in favor of the Euro. Expect a Major Crash during the holiday season, when least expected. Because of Fed Manipulation to force the market artificially higher in 2009, the wave degree has incremented to 4x the previous magnitude to Grand Supercycle Degree, analogous to a Godzilla Bear Market. That means that the trough from this cataclysm will likely overlap the 1906 Supercycle Wave (I) to form a bullish, Diag II. To maintain a simple structure, & alternate with a complex, Supercycle Wave (II) ended 1932. The trajectory will likely begin with a echoing, lower degree Bearish Diag II to preview & confirm the downside, just as in 1929 & 1965. In '29 the first leg of the echoing, bearish Diag II was the Crash, while '65 was the same structure resulted in a 50% plunged from top to bottom. Over 6-8 years the market will likely find a far lower trough in the area of Dow 100. In the absence of manipulation the logical trough would have been the 1965 Cycle Wave IV A, (the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree)..because of far higher magnitude, even this first jolt will be far more severe than anyone expects....New Posts on Exceptional Bear.com weekly. These public charts contain our entire allocation in weekly interval, jot down the price of your favorite asset class out of the 13 & follow your opportunity LOSSES.

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$ $ $ $ 1a SPX - Daily Covered short for Santa Claus Rally

December 18, 2014 BELOW IS TODAY'S UPDATE

Santa Claus rally progressing very swiftly either a complex a-b-c or a surprise Plunge....the money is in the 2-hour charts...the weekly's show competence and long-term trends, but our strategy is to stretch out the longer trends by opportunistically trading the squiggles as often as possible if not lightening-up to buy back and constantly lower the average cost and speed up the profit. As you will note the Weekly Stockcharts from the site are free as well. In this weekend's piece I will explain in more detail the nature markets, including the spike in volatility on the way that is not factored into risk equations nor into put risk premiums...the Dollar is synched with the Dow & S&P to plunge concurrently and result in a spike in both gold & oil priced in dollars, regardless of Supply/demand dynamics.

Oct 30, 2014

The minimum upside to retrace the first touchpoint of the Bearish Diag II has been met and although a possible upside to the green dotted line is possible, it may not materialize..SAFE EXIT on Friday Oct 31 Feb 24, 2014The SPX also shows a 10 point candle upside likely remaining, from which the reversal could be violent & swift?A Diag II begins a long bearish move...this is the culmination of repetitions of the Diag II. at many degrees of trend, all of which magnify the violence. down in the next phase?this is the last chance to close all LONGS within reasonable RISK parameters, to prevent losing the gains of the last 3 weeks of longs since Feb began? get out by the close!

$ $ $ $VIX - TVIX Weekly

April 20,, 2013

Ultra-Low VIX Sentiment really is a Red Flag

As market indices reach record highs, investors remain far too complacent. Under the
guise of low volatility, the $VIX has morphed two degrees of trend higher, in the
identical pattern as the reciprocal long indices.
Market ?fear? sentiment has been highly unresponsive of late, as record highs followed
one after another. In mid-March, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of volatility
and fear, stood at a five-year low at 11.05, before inching back up to 12.84. As you see
in our weekly $VIX chart the Diag II in process, heralds a long Bull Market in volatility:
and a corresponding Panic & Crash in Stocks! Ultra-low readings from this ?fear gauge?
now raise a red flag. They definitely signal investors that have grown far too bullish, and
fearlessly complacent. Note the identical 2-stage transition as seen inverted as bearish
in all stock indices


April 5, 2013

The mechanism by which Degree of Trend Morphing occurs for two degrees consecutively to denote the longest Supercycle Wave to follow, is just one of MY UNIQUE CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE WAVE PRINCIPLE, found nowhere else! Note the reciprocal structures in the S&P and the DOW. While the VIX enters a HUGE Bull Market, the long indices concurrently enter into an unprecedented Papa Bear Market, only experienced after the 1929 CRASH in the 20th century. Prior to that, in the process of the second Transition the 1929 Crash occurred at Cycle or Mama Bear Degree! Only the final segment from the 4thQ 1930 to the 1932 trough, was at Supercycle, Papa Bear Degree. It had 3X the capital destruction effect as the CRASH


Feb 3, 2013
The US volatility index, the VIX, often described as Wall Street's 'fear gauge', retreated to a long-term low, after touching its highest level since July, followin

$ $ $ 1 Inverse Financials - SKF & FAZ

Dec 10, 2014 Minimum profit in Inverse Financials

Price of FAZ Dec 8 =12.74 38,000 (top left y-axis)
38,000/12.74 = 2982.73 x100 = 298,273% minimum profit before compounding from Swing Trading, to scale-out partial positions into the herd's panic buying, and wait to buy back once complacency returns. As in 2008-2009 this is the highest probability return of all, with mortgage foreclosures & Commercial Real Estate defaults many a bank will go under unless bailed out!

Nov 22, 2014

On the top left is the 2009 trough in stocks when these inverse funds last shined brightly, just as Wave C (blue) reversed in wave D, that D is in the final stages of reversing, to indicate another collapse in all stocks, only these inverse ETFs are Depression-proof and Recession-proof...the current price in FAZ is 14, the upside just to get even with the 2009 trough is 28,000!..In FAZ each $54 appreciates to at least $5000....if we swing trade them optimally the potential return is a multiple of that figure....We have been through this before and came out with flying colors, this time the stakes are at least 3x higher!

$ $ $ 2 Inverse Real Estate DRV since 2009 Weekly

Dec 10, 2014 Minimum profit in Inverse Real Estate

Price of DRV on Dec 8 = 27.37 min upside 6500. 6500/27.37 = 237.49 x100 = 23,748% minimum profit before compounding from Swing Trading, to scale-out partial positions into the herd?s panic buying, and wait to buy back once complacency returns.

Nov 22, 2014

In the inverse Real Estate the red trajectory represents SRS ProShares Ultrashort Real Estate, in Blue is DRV the Direxion equivalent. In SRS the min upside before it goes off the chart is 4200 from a current price of 13.47...In DRV the current price is 29.46 and the upside is 6500 before it goes off the chart...if you have a calculator handy, these are HUGE returns, while all long investors will be losing their shsirts

$ $ $ 2 TMV - Inverse T-Bonds Weekly since 2009

Dec 10, 2014 Minimum profit in Inverse T-Bonds

Price Dec 8 35.11 likely minimum upside is 480/35.11= 13.71 x100 = 1,371% minimum profit before compounding from Swing Trading, to scale-out partial positions into the herd?s panic buying, and wait to buy back once complacency returns.

Nov 22, 2014

Inverse Bonds just beginning a long Bull Market...this time when stocks plunge, so will T-bonds, and take all bonds with them down the shooter! From the current price of 38, TMV has a min wave 3 target of 290....likely in a Flash coincident with collapse of the stock Market and the $US

$ $ $ 3 $GOLD has started a Big Bounce! - Weekly

Dec 10, 2014 Minimum profit in Long Gold


Nov 22, 2014

Gold has begun a wave iii (green) upside with a minimum upside of $1685/oz to complete wave 2C red at the very top. As the dollar collapses, the initial knee-jerk reaction is into gold..in levered gold UGL the min upside is 100 (on the L y-axis) from a current price of 38, this corresponds with the Spot price of gold Spiking to at least 1650/oz on the R y-axis.

$ $ $ 3 Inverse Small Cap TZA & TWM

Dec 10, 2014 Minimum profit in Inverse Small Cap

Price TZA Dec 8 = 13.47 Minimum upside to match the 2009 high 9500. 9500/13.47 = 705 x 100 = 70,527% minimum profit before compounding from Swing Trading, to scale-out partial positions into the herd?s panic buying, and wait to buy back once complacency returns.

Nov 22, 2014

Above the chart of Inverse small cap stocks, while these soar in the initial stages of Bull Markets, there suffer many casualties in Bear Market from shortage of working capital. From a current price of $13.50 TZA on the L y-axis will soar to 9500, while TWM on the R y-axis will go from 42.5 to 2100. Note the same pattern in all these charts is Elliott's A-B Base, a-b-(a); a-b-(b); a-b-1-2-3-4-5 all the way up! more accurately a transition. This inverse fund should easily exceed the profit we reaped in 2008-2009 by swing trading partial positions all the way down, only a fool would pinch pennies at the peril of $thousands.

$ $ $ 4 BIS - Inverse Biotechnology Weekly since 2009

Dec 10, 2014 Minimum profit in Inverse Biotech

Price of BIS on Dec 8, 44.15, minimum upside is a modest estimate since this ETF did not come into existence until March 2010?so this minimum estimate is only to the wave ii (red) bounce. Is 1700, if you are wondering how the minimum upside in all of these inverse funds is so rich, just 2 weeks ago, BIS had a 1 for 5 reverse split, to raise the price so that institutions which are barred from buying stocks priced at less than $5 can participate, after several times such reverse splits are what make the astronomical upsides profits. 1700/44 = 38.64 x100 = 3,864% minimum profit before compounding from Swing Trading, to scale-out partial positions into the herd?s panic buying, and wait to buy back once complacency returns.

Nov 22, 2014

Inverse Biotech from the current price of 52, has minimum upside of 1700, before it goes off the chart,

$ $ $ 5 UGL UltraGold Weekly

Dec 10, 2014 Minimum profit in levered Gold

Price of UGL Dec 8 $40 likely min upside $120/ 40 = 3 x100 = 300%. However commodities do not increment magnitude like stocks, instead like Peter Pan they never grow-up. The 5 waves above are wave I of a new 5-wave Cycle Bull Market, where wave 3 has a likely minimum upside of 1.618 x 120 = 194 ; 194/40= 485% This is the least profit potential, of all our ETFs, yet the next most likely increment in wave III is 2.618 x 120 = an upside of 314; 314/40 = 7.85 x100 = 785%, should the dollar plunge as expected to the area of 73 on the dollar index that 785% is made possible in part by a plunge in the dollar?s purchasing power, an inflationary head-fake reversing into outright Deflationary Depression, to dramatically increase the buck?s purchasing power on the order of 40%

Dec 1, 2014

The Gold chart has bottomed and is reversing up in the a-b reversal to shoot up to match the previous high.

$ $ $ 7 Inverse S&P - SPXU

Dec 10, 2014 Minimum profit in Inverse S&P to the March 2009 trough

Current rice Dec 8 38.49, min upside to equal the March 2009 Fed mediated trough1750
1,750/38.49 = 45.47 x100 = 4,547% minimum profit before compounding from Swing Trading, to scale-out partial positions into the herd?s panic buying, and buy back once complacency returns.

Nov 30, 2014

Above the inverse S&P. On the top left wave C blue represents the 2009 trough in stocks inverted as a profit in INVERSE ETFs...current price of SPXU is 38 it has a min upside of 1750 before it goes OFF the CHART

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