$Exceptional Elliott Bear: Synthetic Emerging Markets x-China

Eduardo Mirahyes Has Had Over 50 Followers Rank: 19 Followers: 72 Votes: 216 Years Member: 6 Last Update: 23 April 2014, 18:56 Categories: Elliott Wave Analysis
Market Timing


April 21, 2014

See Long Biotech, BIB, bouncing to high heaven!

April 20, 2014
New Post on Exceptional Bear.com, A synthetic Emerging markets ETF X-China...this posting demonstrates how we back out the losses from an asset class ETF to leave pure profit

April 19, 2014
On the 2-hour Dow chart, the 3rd from the top, the next move is a 250 point drop to complete the Diag >, this indicates not only that there's a dramatic reversal ahead , but also of a higher magnitude to collapse prices, with far more volatility than up to now...obviously the $VIX will react favorably to take profits

April 16, 2014
From here the Dow should pull-back to 16,180 to complete the Diag > to indicate the impending reversal of the upside move, peaking ~16,580-16,600 into a far more precipitous & swift plunge...se Dow 2-hour

April 15, 2014
The numerous false Breakouts, which go on and on to extremes...we are trading them inversely of course for the swing trade, yet they indicate the large number of trend followers who are following each other to create amazingly long false starts...these are highly indicative of the dwarfing influence of high-frequency, programmed trading is having, which snowballs one on another. Ask yourselves what's the outcome once they ALL get it right to the downside, nothing less than a Massive Crash far beyond imagination.

April 14, 2014
How come despite the 'Taper', interest rates keep dropping, when they should be rising according to conventional wisdom & near 100% consensus? see long, 30-year T-bond rates in a channel, likely dropping to 2.6% to retest the post-war 1946 low

April 13, 2014
Note blow the Dow & SPX show similar aberrations to indicate market manipulation by the Fed buying blanket futures

April 10, 2014
New piece on Oil & Gas, both headed higher, Gas destined to become the #1 choice due to it's ability to genrate over 3x as much energy as measured in BTUs, just posted on Exceptional-Bear.com Website



$ $BIB - Long Biotec - for the Swing-Trade Bounce only!

April 21 2014

Last week's Barrons' cover declared the Biotech Bubble Burst, just in time to begin the bounce back to the HIGH...by remaining flexible, unlike other bears, we participate both on the long and short side, with unparalleled expert timing!
Most investors react to the news instead of anticipating...according to Barron's, aside from Tech & Biotech all is OK! The sing is on the wall!

$ $Dow 2-hour gearing-up magnitude reversal after ii

March 24, 2014

The 2-hour Dow is completing a Diag > to imply a Reversal at a higher magnitude for the lurch-down to follow

$ $GOLD - The bounce in gold is likely over, expect the long-term trough 1135-1150

Mar 20, 2014

The bounce in gold is over, expect a trough in the area of 1135-1150

Feb 25, 2014

The final drop in gold should trace another Diag > to indicate transcending to a higher degree, concurrent with the signal of dramatic reversal to bullish ahead

Feb 25, 2014
Diag >s are ending structures to indicate a moribund move, to be followed by a dramatic reversal. The more repetitions the more violent the reversal

Feb 18, 2014 - We shorted GOLD at 1310; expect to buy LONG ~1150
Gold has much further to drop, this is a false start....we are in CASH but will short gold through the inverse ETF.

Jan 24, 2014
GOLD, soon a short, Swing trade
Gold has a minimum upside of 1885 to complete wave (iii) in a Diag > before the next major pull-back, it should then continue possibly to an all-time high before collapsing

$ $INDU - Big Picture Monthly (revised Apr 11, 2014) 2

March 21, 2014

The major revision in this Big Picture Dow chart is not A-B is required to reverse, the gearing-up via power laws substitute the extended trajectory between the converging lines to denote a degree higher or 4x the previous magnitude should be echoed as in Cycle Wave IV with two smaller Diag IIs (red) to confirm the plunge to Wave (A), both the values absolute Supercycle (IV) trough... Just as the shorter yardstick increases the length of the British coastline, similar to Cycle Wave IV its 50% fractal..see big picture chart

March 17, 2014

Here you witness the Diag II (red or green to denote Bearish or Bullish) a pattern which remains constant over time to power up the leap to Supercycle Magnitude in both Bull & Bear markets the particular wave personality becomes magnified, that is to say Bull Markets become far smoother, to apparent the the absence of risk. In Bear Markets the identical pattern accentuates inherent volatility.. the direction of huge price swings often alternates, while it scales to the same degree. This model derives from the long-term Elliott count different from all others, resulting form advances not recognized by others, these allow us to build better, more useful forecasts resulting in sounder financial decisions to compound returns...just up ahead is a minimum 50% plunge, only its velocity can deviate to occur over 9 months or within a week, like the 1987 Crash's 3-day free-fall.

Feb 18, 2014 - the likely Dow Diag > represents dramatic reversal ahead; buy limit reduced to 1035; sold short 1120 First bounce, either wave 2 or (iv) of a bearish, Diag II before a continuation of the one larger trend of wave 1, or wave I, a 'Flight to quality & safety', concurrent with a plunge in stocks & a levitation of Bond Prices.Each time the top of the channel is grazed, the next move moseys on down to the lower limit, in the next move the channel widens to make room for Grand Supercycle [III] which is tacked onto the tip

$ $NASDQ 100 - $NDX

Feb 24, 2014 -

This chart shows the $NAZ is very near the bubble levels of 2000, and likely has just one month to complete the count before reversal...including the A-B Transition to Bearish

$ $SJB short high yield vs short-T-bond Weekly

March 12, 2014

Notice that hi-yield have crossed below inverse T-bonds for a long-term bottom to inverse hi-yield

$ $SPX - Daily Candlesticks Magnified

Feb 24, 2014

The SPX also shows a 10 point candle upside likely remaining, from which the reversal could be violent & swift?A Diag II begins a long bearish move...this is the culmination of repetitions of the Diag II. at many degrees of trend, all of which magnify the violence. down in the next phase?this is the last chance to close all LONGS within reasonable RISK parameters, to prevent losing the gains of the last 3 weeks of longs since Feb began? get out by the close!

Feb 18, 2014 - only the a-b reversal back to bearish remains
The SPX shows in process of a bounce, back to the top, to lure-in side-lined investors once more, right at the TOP.
Jan 25, 2014
One day or less of likely downside before a bounce...this is the Market's Rhythm as well as the rhythm of life.
Jan 7, 2014
This chart is reversing into 5 WAVES DOWN of likely 50% plunge in Wave A purple in 2014, followed by a bounce back to this level in 2015
Dec 30, 2013
The e wave is synonymous with Wave A (purple) of an A-B Reversal
Dec 24, 2013
This is the daily S&P 500 chart showing the final, lowest degree reversal before the PLUNGE, a likely 50% DIVE to exceed the 2009 trough
Nov 23, 2013
This Daily S&P chart clearly shows the subdivisions within the Bearish Diag II (red); Waves 1 & 3 are impulse waves, waves 2 & 4 are corrective the Diag II signals the beginning of a long move, proportional to its own magnitude...that is to say this is not likely the Crash, but a major REVERSAL , which will be followed by a final rally to an all-time high...we are only half way through this Bear Market
September 23, 2014
Next cycle dates: Oct. 11th, Oct. 17th and Nov 4-8th---(MAJOR cycle hit! This could be THE HIGH or LOW)....The unrivaled, enduring essence
With stocks hitting all-time high last week, just one week after the 'Party Bull' appe

$ $SPXU Drops to complete Diag II- 2 hour

Mar 12, 2014

the 2-hour inverse S&P, SPXU, beginning to gear-up to Rally, in the second bullish Diag II.

Feb 25, 2014
Above the 2-hour inverse S&P, SPXU, likely complete & ready to Rally, concurrent with the S&P?s plunge. The a-b is a transition phase, analogous to crown molding, which eases the eye?s ?transition from vertical to horizontal?, here from Bull to Bear. (and inversely in bear to bull in the Short ETFs)

Feb 24, 2014
The 2-hour INVERSE S&P chart is a lot clearer, here revised as the beginning of a new series of Bullish Diag IIin the short SPX
Feb 5, 2014
- The Inverse S&P 2-hour ready to Rally

SPXU is the inverse S&P, which is the same as shorting the ETF, without having to worry about dividends, or available stock for borrowing. Note there are two large, green Diag IIs to indicate the beginning of a long upside in the INVERSE S&P, meaning a long plunge in the S&P index. From an opening price of 70 on Wed 5, Feb, this inverse fund must plunge to at least 60, as long stocks stage a 'sucker's rally,' to lure investors back-in near top, just before the subsequent plunge. As you all know, the herd of investors only shorted just as the downside was complete, as we reversed to long for the minimum Swing Trade, bounce in other words, by the time the herd reacts, the move is over. Just as the cover of Barron's for the last three weeks has Money Managers in ridiculous poses, staged in front of the Wall Street Bronze Bull. Again the difference between a Bear Market Rally and an authentic Bull Run is found in its sub-divisions. Five Waves to the downside indicate a Bear Market in force since 2000, while the 3-wave moves to the upside, are a dead give-away of a 'sucker's rally', which always reverses into a much bigger plunge, to retrace, or backtrack over the previous upside entirely....My Stockcharts interface is hacked, so that I cannot see

$ $TLT - Weekly T-Bonds since 2007

$ $TMV Treas Bear- 2 hour

Feb 25, 2014

The most likely structure is a Diag > to indicate the terminus at d, rather than 63.75 65.5 is more accurate

Feb 25, 2014

Abvoe you see the most likely path for inverse bonds, to peak in wave a of an a-b-c correction, we exit all inverse bond positions at 65.5, where the lowest gap is filled-in?we later buy back a partial position TMF, long bonds for the b wave, likely dropping to 58.5 min in the chart above

Feb 5, 2014 a SAMPLE of the profit aggregating Swing Trades in 2-hour charts here Inverse Bonds

As you see above in Inverse Bonds, the move to the upside is well under way. Despite the long-term upside in the price of bonds, due to plunging inversely-related yield, if we don't Swing Trade them, we are constantly making 'round trips' back to cost, or below. On the other hand, if we adopt a strategy which 'fits Bear Market Volatility' we continually lock-in profits. Concurrently, most others will lose their shirts, and drop-out as investors, entirely. The same as unemployment data, which do not take into account those who are no longer looking for work because they have given-up on ever finding a job, or are grossly under-employed, & relegated to minimum wage, menial tasks, just to survive. . Only by Swing Trading, is an annualized return, which exceeds the Market's Loss attainable, beyond leverage. Just as the coast of England dramatically increases as the yardstick is shortened from 200 meters to 50 meters, by 42%. A shortened yardstick is analogous to the drop time long-term time increments, from monthly to weekly.We instead trade the 2-hour charts which are only available by subscription. I they were free, who in his right mind would pay my rent? These signals are where the money is, any intelligent businessman will pay $1 to earn $2. Yet many of you intentionally forego thousands even hundreds of thousands to save a pittance As Einstein quipped, the definition of insanity, is

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