$Exceptional Elliott Bear: Short the Dow Tues Aug 19 at the opening

Eduardo Mirahyes Has Had Over 50 Followers Rank: 19 Followers: 76 Votes: 182 Years Member: 6 Last Update: 20 August 2014, 16:24 Categories: Elliott Wave Analysis
Market Timing


Aug 20 See Dow 1-Hr chart 5 waves complete C of an a-b-c reversal, minimum drop noted in red dashed line

Aug 19 -
Timer Digest DOW ( for performance tracking only) (see 1 hour Dow Below)
Cash since Friday Aug 15
Short the Dow at the opening Tuesday Aug 19 (close 16,838 Mon Aug 19)
Cover short & Buy long Dow limit 16,411

Sold LONG Dow @ 16,725 off open Fri, Aug 15
Long Dow @ 16,853.83, Wed, July 30
Sold Dow short @16,753 at the close June 26

Aug 17 The neutral Dow position for timing services shown in detail on the1-hour Dow The most likely safe target to buy back the Dow is 16,411, this repents wave (i) ( first touchpoint) of the Diag >,before retracement, 16,390 is the same after retracement, represented by the ?wick?. These correlate closely to the gap in XIV below on Aug 11

Aug 16 - Posting on Exceptional Bear.com- The Dow Relative to 2007, Bonds overbought and yield oversold, Volatility and Diag >

Aug 14 Short-term reversal to backtrack,in a Diag > before going higher See Dow 1-hour

Aug 11 we have open orders to buy 2/3 TVIX limit 2.9 see revised count coinciding with SPXU, inverse S&P

Aug 10 we bot 1/3 TVIX @3.79 off limit order at the low of the day, this final Spike in the VIX coincides with the b-wave transcending back up in a wave ii retracement to the dashed line at the uppermost Diag II.

Aug 9 - To persist in a Bull Market Mindset, after 14 years of Bear Market foreshadowing, is Insane - Just posted on Exceptional-Bear.com, Insanity is continuing to invest as if the Bull Market never ended.

Aug 5 the downside has been extended slightly by a Diag > to indicate a DRAMATIC REVERSAL ahead...see the correlation between the SPXU & the TVIX showing the identical extension

Aug 3 Today's Post on Exceptional Bear.com gives you the Big picture in the major asset classes, followed by the 2-hour magnification for an in-depth view...you can also see your limits and swing tradin


$ $ 1TVIX Volatility Index ETN 2-hr

$ $1 Indu 1 -hr

Here is the revised chart for the Dow...despite my assertion that the next move began the plunge the Diag II pattern was very tricky and appeared to be a degree lower and corrective rather than an impulse wave. We got all the other asset classes right and sold into this decline, now nearly over as explained in the call-out

$ $1 SPXU Drops to complete Diag II- 2 hour

Mar 12, 2014

the 2-hour inverse S&P, SPXU, beginning to gear-up to Rally, in the second bullish Diag II.

Feb 25, 2014
Above the 2-hour inverse S&P, SPXU, likely complete & ready to Rally, concurrent with the S&P?s plunge. The a-b is a transition phase, analogous to crown molding, which eases the eye?s ?transition from vertical to horizontal?, here from Bull to Bear. (and inversely in bear to bull in the Short ETFs)

Feb 24, 2014
The 2-hour INVERSE S&P chart is a lot clearer, here revised as the beginning of a new series of Bullish Diag IIin the short SPX
Feb 5, 2014
- The Inverse S&P 2-hour ready to Rally

SPXU is the inverse S&P, which is the same as shorting the ETF, without having to worry about dividends, or available stock for borrowing. Note there are two large, green Diag IIs to indicate the beginning of a long upside in the INVERSE S&P, meaning a long plunge in the S&P index. From an opening price of 70 on Wed 5, Feb, this inverse fund must plunge to at least 60, as long stocks stage a 'sucker's rally,' to lure investors back-in near top, just before the subsequent plunge. As you all know, the herd of investors only shorted just as the downside was complete, as we reversed to long for the minimum Swing Trade, bounce in other words, by the time the herd reacts, the move is over. Just as the cover of Barron's for the last three weeks has Money Managers in ridiculous poses, staged in front of the Wall Street Bronze Bull. Again the difference between a Bear Market Rally and an authentic Bull Run is found in its sub-divisions. Five Waves to the downside indicate a Bear Market in force since 2000, while the 3-wave moves to the upside, are a dead give-away of a 'sucker's rally', which always reverses into a much bigger plunge, to retrace, or backtrack over the previous upside entirely....My Stockcharts interface is hacked, so that I cannot see

$ $1 TMV - Inverse T-Bonds Daily

$ $1Dow 2-hour

June 16, 2014

Dow 2-hour chart shows the reversal in process to confirm our assertion of a false breakout. Three irregular tops are the max for wave D, these do NOT make a BULL Market, they only sucker-in the know-it-alls, who later hide their tails between their legs

$ $1VIX - Daily since 2014

$ $1YANG - China Bear Weekly

Jul 7 - This chart shows YANG the inverse Shanghai Market completing an upside reversal, with volume Spike just last week, this should be a major winner

$ $2INDU - Monthly Candlesticks, long-term

June 7

After each increase in magnitude in a Bear Market Rally an irregular top follows to exceed the Orthodox Top ending the Bull Market in 2000.

In Wave A of the Diag II (red) the subdivisions are in intermediate degree, in Wave C the subdivisions are at Primary Degree, in this wave E the subdivisions after the echoing Diag II, are in Cycle Degree (I-IV)

$ $2RUT - Russel 2000 small-cap

Jul 16, 2014
The Small Stocks in the Russell 2000 have begun dropping second in line with utilities, they suffer the most casualties in a Bear Market due to insufficient working capital to continue as a going concern in an economic contraction

$ $2Shanghai vs Emerging Markets Weekly

Jul 7- This chart compares the Emerging Markets collectively with its biggest component the China Market, second only to NY. both are dropping, but EM in a correction to the upside while China is in a Cycle degree Bear Market with a long way down,

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