$Exceptional Bear #1 ranked Bear Market performance by Timer Digest April 20, 2015

Eduardo Mirahyes Has Had Over 50 Followers Rank: 18 Followers: 98 Votes: 259 Years Member: 7 Last Update: 26 April 2015, 10:18 Categories: Elliott Wave Analysis
ETFs
Market Timing

Exceptional-Bear.com

Apr 25

coming later today on the exceptional-Bear Website, Why the ability to anticipate and adapt to Bear Market
& Its underestimated magnitude are so critical to prosper in the Bear Market
- most will get killed


Apr 24

Whether you are looking to maximize profits or avoid catastrophic losses, Market Timing is Critical, especially at emotionally-driven, major market reversals like 2000, 2008 & now! We are still ranked #1 for timing & Performance beating the S&P by 1.45 x in the last 12 months by Timer Digest, in the April 20 report; Beta uncorrelated to the S&P in Bear Markets


Apr 20 POSTS on Exceptional-Bear.com
New Post shows Robert Shiller's updated cyclically adjusted P/E ratios chart annotated in New-Wave Elliott. The current P/E 10 is higher than in 1966, Cycle Wave III, from where the 10-year moving average P/E dropped BELOW 5, the current one is of Supercycle Degree 4x the magnitude, must trough comparable at a low comparable to Wave (A) in 1921 and Wave (C) in 1932. copy & paste on your browser, this file is free from virus, the warning originates from our Hacker, to dissuade you from reading it!

http://www.exceptional-bear.com/resources/Market+Letter+Apr+19+Relaitve+Market+Values+from+Shiller+in+perspective.pdf

alternately you can go to exceptional-bear.com and click on the top link in the Menu.

Timer Digest LINK-

New Timer Digest issue Apr 20 Ranks Exceptional Bear #1 for 6 & 12 months ended April 20, 2015

http://www.exceptional-bear.com/resources/Timer+Digest+Apr+20$2C+2015.pdf


WHY these results are not reflected in StockCharts ranking is because of HACKING see detailed screenshots showing 20 votes stolen in March all at once.
Each day my votes increase 6-9 points only to be hacked away overnight!

http://www.exceptional-bear.com/resources/April+15+Chip+Anderson+Stockcharts.pdf

copy & paste on your browser... you will also find it on find on the website homepage below green Chinese symbol for prosperity

Apr<

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$ $ $ $ 1a SPX 30-min

Apr 13

Short the Market at the close March 16, 2015 @ SPX 2081.18 orders to buy long @ 2040 were cancelled. Our reasoning that 1% upside was not worth risking 30% plunge even for a couple of days. As you see its made the triple top and on the way down


Apr 8
LONG FROM HERE at the close at SPX 2110 sell long & SHORT AGAIN, TO BE SAFE

Mar 26
Cover short & go LONG on the first close at or below SPX 2023 signal date: Thurs Mar 26...see the 2-hour chart below ...we need to step back a bit for perspective to estimate the low from the b- reversal


March 21, 2015
The upside in wave ii of the 3rd is complete the next plunge is a BIG one! - the iiird of the 3rd


March 16, 2015
Short at the close!

March 14, 2015
Below you see the detail of the 30-min chart. Of note are the volume spikes in the last 30-minutes of trading and the first 30 of the next day's. The herd is growing restless in anticipations of the cataclysm in the same way all animals can sense danger of an impending hurricane, earthquake or volcano eruption, telling them to flee for safety; humans instead block such intuitive message through herding 'reason & logic'. Another way of looking at an EKG of a person on the verge of a heart attack!

$ $ $ $ 1b SPX 2-hr

Apr 20

This chart is the alternate count from the 30-min chart which has traced out a simple a-b-c in blue, a complex structure is shown here. See the Weekly chart from the 2007 TOP, just below, being echoed in the present structure to insure the longest 5th wave to complete wave iii


Apr 8
LONG FROM HERE at the close at SPX 2110 sell long & SHORT AGAIN, TO BE SAFE


Apr 7
It is possible that wave (iv) of the diag II goes higher than wave (ii) to the asehd red line to complete the daig II before dropping back to our target long SP 2023


Mar 26
Cover short & go LONG on the first close at or below SPX 2023
signal date: Thurs Mar 26...see the gap in the 2-hour chart that is the most likely upside reversal ...we need to step back a bit for perspective to estimate the low from the b- reversal

Mar 14
Above in the 2-hour S&P chart you see three repetitions leading up to the high of Feb 23rd of bearish wave 2. Likely another three await on the way back up to wave ii, with a minimum upside of S&P 2105, to retrace the first touch point of the uppermost Diag >, marked by the dashed purple line. The blue insets are likely to be repeated on a lower scale as this is now wave ii of the 3rd, a degree lower than the previous wave 2.

Mar 10
Long at the close for the wave ii (red) bounce

Feb 19
We are short the S&P as of the close Feb 5, 2015 SPX 2059
The Market is now topping in most likely wave 2 (red) upside correction of wave 1 (red) down to initiate the Bear Market PLUNGE... Three Diagonal triangles (Diag >) is the maximum number of repetition of any pattern of the same magnitude in series. Wave 2C completes the upside and the a-b reversal is well in process. The first gap is at 2020. Before the SPX can climb higher in a Diag II (red) pattern it must first drop to 2020 and likely 2012, the subsequent gap marked by the red dashed line.

Feb 5 SHORT the S&P @ the C

$ $ $ $ 1c Dow 2007 TOP & Diag II

April 20

This chart shows how the next plunge will complete as wave 1 and be the longest of 1, 3 & 5...note that just as above the Diag II followed immediately after the magnitude gearing-UP to recall the long process in the previous upside...refer to the Monthly Dow or S&P for the larger perspective, this is an echoing fractal of the larger structure beginning in 2000, similar to a crystal which repeats the basic structure over and over

$ $ $ $ 1c Shanghai in a huge Bubble about to CRASH

Apr 8

The A-B Reversal has extended another 33% beyond the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree labeled B in red. The entire trajectory after wave 2 (red) completed is a Sucker's rally. This is a Bubble of Mammoth proportions. As in 2008, its bursting will reverberate around the Planet, and serve as the catalyst to topple developed markets...the US is less than 1.5% from the completion of the upside, see the revised count in the SPX.

$ $ $ $ 1SSEC Shanghai Composite (EOD) Daily

April 11

Here is a closeup of the Shanghai Bubble 33% above the extreme of the previous 4th wave and beyond the origin of Wave 1 in its wave 2 upside correction. YANG is highly under-priced and undervalued

$ $ $ $1b US Dollar Index - Cash Settle (EOD) 2

March 21 2015


Three repititions of any pattern are the max, see 3 irregular tops in the $US, three Diag >s in the German DAX, both synched the Shanghai stock Market, the $DOW & SPX, all set to plunge in lock-step...the knee-jerk winners are Gold, and the Euro

$ $ $ $1Euro - Philadelphia ($XEU) 2

Mar 21, 2015 The Euro & Gold are Safe Havens NOT the $US. This configurations indicates a the longest 5th (V) wave akin to the US stock market from 1982 to 2000, for conservative types the Euro is golden!

Nov 18, 2014
Investment Tips for the current Bear Market


According to Jesse Livermore, most people don?t want to study the market to invest intelligently, they just want tips to play the Market, in hopes of getting seriously rich, and as Robert Shiller points out in Irrational Exuberance, the United States? Annual Wager stated as ?the amount people lost on gambling in 2000 was more than they spent on movie tickets, recorded music, theme parks, spectator sports and video games combined?. Just posted in Linked-in
http://www.linkedin.com/pub/dir/Eduardo/Mirahyes

This chart show how the Euro is beginning a NEW BULL Market of higher magnitude to trounce the dollar falling off a cliff, obviously timid ones should sell all dollar denominated securities to buy Euros as the NEW SAFE Haven for CASH

$ $ $ $2 DAX German Composite (EOD)

March 26, 2015

The DAX, along with the concurrent peaks in the dollar index & Shanghai confirm the Global Crash, the only safe havens are inverse funds, the Euro, the VIX volatility index and several commodities including Gold and Natural Gas, the fuel of the future, Oil is merely on a Bear market Rally back to the top before it craters.

March 20, 2015

The DAX is synched with Wall Street to Crash concurrency

$ $ $ $3 SPX - Daily Long since the 13 Jan

March 14, 2014
Diagonal Triangles, Diag >


A Diag > is a terminal structure which indicates the price has gone too far, too fast, as Elliott put it. A single rising wedge is bearish, and when a maximum of three occur in sequence, of the same relative magnitude, they are followed by a sharp decline retracing at least back to where the Diag > began. What's more, Diag >s subdivide in 3's so wave (iv) overlaps wave (i).

Jan 8, 2014
Read call-outs one more day of upside and we go short Jan 9 at the close, likely for the last time, the monthly 3rd chart shows the final reversal in progress

December 20, 2014 BELOW IS TODAY'S UPDATE
http://www.exceptional-bear.com/104.html
View the optimal Bear market Allocation. This public list contains our entire portfolio in weekly increment candlesticks with real-time valuation per share in the top right corner as the closing price. We are currently swing-trading the XIV the inverse volatility ETF for the Santa Claus Rally. Likewise, on Friday we scaled-out of YANG, the inverse China ETF, after locking-in a 10% gain in a week. Next we wait for it to drop back most of that 10%, to buy it back to reduce average cost & minimize risk. We follow the same strategy day-in and day-out, as others are on the wrong side of Market. See how our upwardly mobile portfolio stacks up against BONY's lifestyle allocation, likely to lose 25-30% in the initial crash and if held for the long run will erode at least 83% of these client wealth.
Yale's Robert Shiller presents that only

$ $ $ $4 The DOW Big Picture - Supercycle (III) arithmetic scale

Mar 7, 2015
The longterm top likely complete and the Avalanche in process once the upper Diag II gets retraced on the 2-hour SPX above

Jan 8, 2014
The final reversal is likely in progress to complete by Mon Jan 12

Dec 27, 2014
This chart in arithmetic scale shows the same Diag II both as a Bullish structure to herald the longest Bull Market in history, now reversing in a monstrosity of a Bearish Diag II proportional to its dimensions. As the Bullish Diag II (1987) was to the Bull market ended 2000, so is the identical structure inverted as Bearish Diag II to
Nov 23, 2014

This is BIG Picture Road map of the Market in arithmetic scale take out distortions of log scaled. Wave C (blue) represents the Fed manipulated 2009 trough, as stocks were bottoming, the inverse funds in our strategic asset allocation were peaking. Therefore the C wave is inverse funds is found at the top left and drops as stocks climbed fueled by Monetary & Fiscal stimulus in vain attempts to create a perpetual Boom! In the chart above the plunge to E (blue) is at least 3x as long, so the estimated profit to the C trough are grossly underestimated. by at least 300%. The call-outs in the chart above point out the magnitude gearing in both Bull and Bear Markets demarcated by the aqua line in 2000. Like the Great Bear Market ended in the Great Depression, this one should endure ~26 years rather than the 3 from 1929 to 1932. In that Supercycle Wave (II) , the Roaring Twenties was a colossal Bear Market Rally, like the recent segment C-D above it sub-divided into 3 waves to indicate the Bear market had far more to drop. According to Russel Napier's Anatomy of the Bear, study of 4 bottoms, the minimum drop is to 60% of replacement value for plant and equipment. While at Wave C above market values for corporate assets merely dropped the premium to go to par.... so it ain't over by a long

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