$Exceptional Elliott The TOP Bearish Diag II (red)

Eduardo Mirahyes Has Had Over 50 Followers Rank: 20 Followers: 87 Votes: 197 Years Member: 7 Last Update: 27 February 2015, 21:42 Categories: Elliott Wave Analysis
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Market Timing

Exceptional-Bear.com

Feb 21

See how the magnitude gear changes the count in long DOW monthly below

New Posts on the Market Pattern to the final TOP, & Natural GAS opportunity Exceptional-bear.com. See the Timer Digest #1 Ranking over 2x S&P http://www.exceptional-bear.com/resources/Timer+Digest+Jan+26.pdf

http://www.exceptional-bear.com/resources/The+Macroeconomics+in+New-Wave+Elliott.pdf Barron's 2015 Forecasting challenge pictorially answered in New-Wave Elliott found on the top of the menu on the website..http://www.exceptional-bear.com/resources/Monetary+expansion+sows+seeds+of+Depression.pdf Monetary stimulus only works in Bull Markets, when it is aligned with profit-seeking human nature The SP daily chart below shows our forecast, the big pic Monthly in the 3rd chart completes no later than Mon Jan 12

Less

$ $ $ $ $ SPX

Feb 19

We are short the S&P as of the close Feb 5, 2015 SPX 2059
The Market is now topping in most likely wave 2 (red) upside correction of wave 1 (red) down to initiate the Bear Market PLUNGE... Three Diagonal triangles (Diag >) is the maximum number of repetition of any pattern of the same magnitude in series. Wave 2C completes the upside and the a-b reversal is well in process. The first gap is at 2020. Before the SPX can climb higher in a Diag II (red) pattern it must first drop to 2020 and likely 2012, the subsequent gap marked by the red dashed line.

Feb 5 SHORT the S&P @ the CLOSE the pattern is confirmed, and must now drop to the area indicated on the chart

Feb 4
We sold the S&P to go into cash at the close, for Timer Digest where its all or nothing, in our accounts we sold half of the long position in XIV as an analogue


Jan 28
Covered Short @ the close to go LONG 2002.16
This long signal had been in place for several days, we modified it yesterday to go short after the clear Diag > indicated a fractal of the larger structure to complete in 5 waves down completed to day, for tomorrow only the a-b reversal is required to start back up...you will not recognize this a-b pattern as Elliott because Robert Prechter edited it out while mocking Elliott ' despite his empirical evidence he had the typical investor's penchant for forcing the pattern into his preconceived end result.. I reinstated it and completed the missing pieces. See New-Wave Elliott parts 1 & 2

http://www.exceptional-bear.com/resources/New+Wave+Elliott+part+1+revised+Dec+4$2C+2014.pdf

$ $ $ $ $1 Dow 2-hour Down opening reversing into a Rally back to the top!

Jan 27

Short SPX @ the close Jan 27, cover short limit 2005 & go long

Jan 26
BUY SPX long limit 2005

Jan 23
closed long pos at the close Jan 22, now in cash... Diag > means dramatic reversal ahead, 3 is the max, the second in process

Jan 16
the same signals I provide here for the Dow earned me the #2 timer in Timer Digest rankings dated Jan 12, 2015 & top for the quarter ended December. copy & paste: http://www.exceptional-bear.com/resources/Timer+digest+rankings+Jan+12$2C+2015.pdf...what's more you will note the last timing signal in this ranking was on Jan 9, since then we reversed twice , while the top guy is sitting on the sidelines in cash - Neutral

Timer Digest SPX signals:
Short SPX @ the close Jan 27, cover short limit 2005 & go long

Timer Digest DOW signals:
Jan 22 closed out long pos to go into cash 17,813.98
Jan 13 At the opening we went long at the opening 17645.02
Jan 9 At the close on Friday, Sold-out long position at the close & went SHORT
Jan 6 Covered Short Dow & Go LONG at the close 17,371.31
Friday Dec 19 At the close we sold all Dow long and shorted the index the Dow
Tues Dec 16 At the close on covered shorts in Dow 17,068.87 to go LONG
Friday, Oct 31 SOLD FULL SHORT POS in the Dow at the close 17,390.52
Wed Oct 29 Sold long Dow since Oct 10 at the close 16,974.31
Oct 10, 2014 Covered short Dow to go long at the opening
Tuesday Aug 19 Short the Dow at the opening

Jan 14
The Diag > Wave C extended into a complex a-b-c shown in blue...the same signals I provide here for the Dow here earned me the #1 timer in Timer Digest rankings dated Jan 26 2015 copy & paste http://www.exceptional-bear.com/resources/Timer+digest+rankings+Jan+12$2C+2015.pdf


Jan 13
#2 by a nose hair in Timer Digest Ranking for the 12 months ending Jan 12, and #1 for the 3 months
http://www.exceptional-bear.com/resources/score.PNG


Jan 12
Long the Dow at the opening Jan 13,

$ $ $ $ 1a SPX - Daily Long since the 13 Jan

Jan 8, 2014
Read call-outs one more day of upside and we go short Jan 9 at the close, likely for the last time, the monthly 3rd chart shows the final reversal in progress

December 20, 2014 BELOW IS TODAY'S UPDATE
http://www.exceptional-bear.com/104.html
View the optimal Bear market Allocation. This public list contains our entire portfolio in weekly increment candlesticks with real-time valuation per share in the top right corner as the closing price. We are currently swing-trading the XIV the inverse volatility ETF for the Santa Claus Rally. Likewise, on Friday we scaled-out of YANG, the inverse China ETF, after locking-in a 10% gain in a week. Next we wait for it to drop back most of that 10%, to buy it back to reduce average cost & minimize risk. We follow the same strategy day-in and day-out, as others are on the wrong side of Market. See how our upwardly mobile portfolio stacks up against BONY's lifestyle allocation, likely to lose 25-30% in the initial crash and if held for the long run will erode at least 83% of these client wealth.
Yale's Robert Shiller presents that only at extremely low valuations can we safely invest for the long-term (5-10yrs), the same logic inverted indicates inverse funds will outperform all other asset classes when valuations are the third highest in history, only after 1929 & 2000. follow the link above for some eye-opening insights

December 18, 2014

Santa Claus rally progressing very swiftly either a complex a-b-c or a surprise Plunge....the money is in the 2-hour charts...the weekly's show competence and long-term trends, but our strategy is to stretch out the longer trends by opportunistically trading the squiggles as often as possible if not lightening-up to buy back and constantly lower the average cost and speed up the profit. As you will note the Weekly Stockcharts from the site are free as well. In this weekend's piece I will explain in more detail the nature mark

$ $ $ $ NATGAS - Natural Gas - Weekly

Feb 15, 2015

See Weekly chart of Natural GAS just added to our allocation see our analysis on the Exceptional Bear Website from the forest to the trees, we're cooking with gas!

$ $ $ $ The DOW Big Picture - Supercycle (III) arithmetic scale

Jan 8, 2014

The final reversal is likely in progress to complete by Mon Jan 12

Dec 27, 2014

This chart in arithmetic scale shows the same Diag II both as a Bullish structure to herald the longest Bull Market in history, now reversing in a monstrosity of a Bearish Diag II proportional to its dimensions. As the Bullish Diag II (1987) was to the Bull market ended 2000, so is the identical structure inverted as Bearish Diag II to
Nov 23, 2014

This is BIG Picture Road map of the Market in arithmetic scale take out distortions of log scaled. Wave C (blue) represents the Fed manipulated 2009 trough, as stocks were bottoming, the inverse funds in our strategic asset allocation were peaking. Therefore the C wave is inverse funds is found at the top left and drops as stocks climbed fueled by Monetary & Fiscal stimulus in vain attempts to create a perpetual Boom! In the chart above the plunge to E (blue) is at least 3x as long, so the estimated profit to the C trough are grossly underestimated. by at least 300%. The call-outs in the chart above point out the magnitude gearing in both Bull and Bear Markets demarcated by the aqua line in 2000. Like the Great Bear Market ended in the Great Depression, this one should endure ~26 years rather than the 3 from 1929 to 1932. In that Supercycle Wave (II) , the Roaring Twenties was a colossal Bear Market Rally, like the recent segment C-D above it sub-divided into 3 waves to indicate the Bear market had far more to drop. According to Russel Napier's Anatomy of the Bear, study of 4 bottoms, the minimum drop is to 60% of replacement value for plant and equipment. While at Wave C above market values for corporate assets merely dropped the premium to go to par.... so it ain't over by a long shot!

Nov 23, 2014
The charts all demonstrate a satisf

$ $ $ $ The DOW Big Picture - Supercycle (III) arithmetic scale 2

Jan 8, 2014



The final reversal is likely in progress to complete by Mon Jan 12



Dec 27, 2014



This chart in arithmetic scale shows the same Diag II both as a Bullish structure to herald the longest Bull Market in history, now reversing in a monstrosity of a Bearish Diag II proportional to its dimensions. As the Bullish Diag II (1987) was to the Bull market ended 2000, so is the identical structure inverted as Bearish Diag II to dwarf the previous bullish trajectory



Nov 23, 2014



This is BIG Picture Road map of the Market in arithmetic scale take out distortions of log scaled. Wave C (blue) represents the Fed manipulated 2009 trough, as stocks were bottoming, the inverse funds in our strategic asset allocation were peaking. Therefore the C wave is inverse funds is found at the top left and drops as stocks climbed fueled by Monetary & Fiscal stimulus in vain attempts to create a perpetual Boom! In the chart above the plunge to E (blue) is at least 3x as long, so the estimated profit to the C trough are grossly underestimated. by at least 300%. The call-outs in the chart above point out the magnitude gearing in both Bull and Bear Markets demarcated by the aqua line in 2000. Like the Great Bear Market ended in the Great Depression, this one should endure ~26 years rather than the 3 from 1929 to 1932. In that Supercycle Wave (II) , the Roaring Twenties was a colossal Bear Market Rally, like the recent segment C-D above it sub-divided into 3 waves to indicate the Bear market had far more to drop. According to Russel Napier's Anatomy of the Bear, study of 4 bottoms, the minimum drop is to 60% of replacement value for plant and equipment. While at Wave C above market values for corporate assets merely dropped the premium to go to par.... so it ain't over by a long shot!





Nov 23, 2014

The charts all demonstrate a satisf

$ $ $ $1 INDU - Big Picture Monthly forecast plunge 10,570 (revised Jan 6, 2015)

Dec 26, 2014



This chart shows the green Diag II which heralded the long Bull Market in sharp contrast to the the same far larger red Diag II now prefaces the Bear DIVE, these are proportional to the subsequent spike..while log scale hides the real extent of the Bull Market, which was 18x a multiplication of its entire previous price trajectory before 1982....the Bearish red structure is huge by comparison despite this log scale distortion being even more acute.





Nov 3, 2014

Like an a projectile suspended momentarily, before beginning to accelerate by Newton's of mass x velocity squared, into a CRASH...the final a-b-(a);a-b-(b) is near complete after that all hell breaks loose for at least 40% DIVE if not more, before the Fed's open market Operations can begin to buy Futures on all markets, by then we will close out our shorts and be Long again.....it may be a while, the taper only just ended! Oct 31, 2014 We SHORTED the Dow at the close for Timing Services at a new all-time high of 17,390 a mere rounding error of 0.6% (0.0060) above our forecast high made several months ago of 17,286 T



Sept 29, 2014This is the Big Picture close-up from the long term Century Chart...Diag II green for bullish begins the long Bull Market, the Diag II red signals the longer BEAR with a trough at Dow 572 the low of Cycle Wave IV (aqua)...This chart shows the Century Channel which contains the wave count until the current wave (A) trough breaks through to widen the channel to allow for Grand Supercycle Degree to follow, at 50% high magnitude than the longest wave so far to the trough

$ $ $ $USD - vs SPX Daily

Jan 3, 2015

Both the SPX & the $US have peaked at extremes of optimism, analogous to climbing a high diving platform for a nose-dive... Diag > signals dramatic reversal ahead, Irregular tops gear up magnitude while edging upwards for a surprise reversal at 4x the previous magnitude, and possibly 16x due to Fed manipulation - not just through zero interest rates, but more covertly via low-integrity purchases of blanket futures on all Market indices by the Fed's primary bond dealers, who could not deny the Fed anything! Since the market is an organic whole, which reflects its human fractals, there's no in-between Supercycle & Grand Supercycle of 4x the magnitude of Supercycle degree. Up to now, the worst we've experienced is a truncated wave C (shown in blue) forced to reverse before completion of its logical conclusion to a deep discount, rather than the simply shedding over-valuation premium at the 2009 trough...historically Bear markets of Cycle degree trough at a 60% discount to replacement value, as documented by Russell Napier in Anatomy of the Bear lessons from four Bear Bottoms... Highly deceitful maneuvers have a hi cost still to be paid deceitfully to attempt a megalomaniac perpetual BOOM, the result is a Monster Market which would not have otherwise evolved in our lifetimes - this is Bernankestein's Godzilla Bear Market, what more the currency has been debased by his monetary easing to the breaking point to result in a run on the Dollar as if it were a bank failure, as bad as Argentina & Greece, the $US has a fraction of its attributed worth...in Depression the government's ability to tax is greatly constrained by few employed and minimal corporate profits, while the costs of Medicare, Medicaid, food stamp and Unemployment benefits skyrocket.

$ $ $ $VIX - TVIX Weekly

Dec 26, 2014

Note the $VIX echoed in TVIX our ETN, we bought back a full position at the low limit of 2.5 on Friday and have traded the smaller spikes with tremendous success, why we never try to capture the last 1/8 or the first, these are the 'greedy' who invariably get caught, as in Indiana Jones & the Temple of the Doom - when they go back for more the roof caves in on them so the get nothing...so too with investing.. .Bulls make money in Bull Markets & Bears make money in Bear Markets but PIGS get slaughtered in all Markets. Notice that in Elliott everything of consequence repeats 3x in series, likewise the $VIX and TVIX have completed the 3rd repetition from here a SPIKE is due. the magnitude transition shown as (a)-(b)-A;(a)-(b)-B corresponds with the identical pattern in the SPX & the Dow; this is the pattern which I identified to morph magnitude by 2x with each repitition 2 x 2 = 4x the magnitude as the for the plunge...it always occurs undercover as a Bear Market Rally to surprise investors with a monstrous surge in volatility upon reversal, totally unexpected and under-priced in options and ETNs. Like most linearly projecting investors this is a property of the lower, vestigial emotional mind...note that to get back to the 2009 trough and the corresponding peak in the VIX the TVIX we just bought back at $2.5 goes to $11,000! No bigger lottery ticket with such high return low risk dynamics has ever existed!


April 20,, 2013
Ultra-Low VIX Sentiment really is a Red Flag

As market indices reach record highs, investors remain far too complacent. Under the
guise of low volatility, the $VIX has morphed two degrees of trend higher, in the
identical pattern as the reciprocal long indices.
Market ?fear? sentiment has been highly unresponsive of late, as record highs followed
one after another. In mid-March, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a measure of volatility
and fear, stood at a five-year low at 11.

$ $ $ 1 Inverse Financials - SKF & FAZ

Dec 10, 2014 Minimum profit in Inverse Financials

Price of FAZ Dec 8 =12.74 38,000 (top left y-axis)
38,000/12.74 = 2982.73 x100 = 298,273% minimum profit before compounding from Swing Trading, to scale-out partial positions into the herd's panic buying, and wait to buy back once complacency returns. As in 2008-2009 this is the highest probability return of all, with mortgage foreclosures & Commercial Real Estate defaults many a bank will go under unless bailed out!

Nov 22, 2014

On the top left is the 2009 trough in stocks when these inverse funds last shined brightly, just as Wave C (blue) reversed in wave D, that D is in the final stages of reversing, to indicate another collapse in all stocks, only these inverse ETFs are Depression-proof and Recession-proof...the current price in FAZ is 14, the upside just to get even with the 2009 trough is 28,000!..In FAZ each $54 appreciates to at least $5000....if we swing trade them optimally the potential return is a multiple of that figure....We have been through this before and came out with flying colors, this time the stakes are at least 3x higher!

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