AlphaDow Barometer: AlphaBond in BULL state. AlphaDow and AlphaGold in BEAR

Sean Gallagher Has Had Over 50 Followers Rank: 25 Followers: 60 Votes: 22 Years Member: 7 Last Update: 3 August 2015, 10:45 Categories: ETFs
General Market Commentary
Canadian Stocks

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AlphaDow is a 5 point Intermarket Strategy. Add up the numbers in the dots in each indicator pane. A new BULLISH state will occur when the count reaches 5 out of 5.

We turned BEARISH on the U.S. stock market (as of July 1st) (the count is currently 2 out of 5 possible points) and we will remain in a BEARISH state until the count reaches 5 out of 5.

We turned BEARISH on the Canadian stock market (2 out of 5) as of the 5th June '15.

We have updated our ETF Focus List - send feedback for a complimentary copy. ETFs chosen for liquidity, cost, tax efficiency and size.

The Call For The Week of August 3rd:

Stocks rebounded last week on positive earnings while commodities declined again. Gold is near a 5 and a half year low and Oil is following suit. Our indicators suggest more weakness for the first two weeks of August. Focus on capital preservation and be selective on new positions.

AlphaGold has given us a 'BEARISH' signal. See chart #3.

AlphaBond is in a 'BULLISH' state. See chart 4.

A traditional Dow Theory bullish signal has been re-confirmed several times since the original BULLISH signal at 13,649.70 on 12/31/13. The Dow Theory is a form of technical analysis that relies on detecting trends in the stock market to determine an investment strategy. The detection of these trends may be interpreted differently by different analysts and the opinions expressed on this website may not be shared by other individuals who apply the same principles of Dow Theory. Past performance is not an indication of future returns. It should not be assumed that any recommendations made will be profitable or without the risk of loss.

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1. AlphaDow -- Five points possible. 5=BUY 2=SELL. Use SPY or the strongest (Alpha) ETFs.

Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true (+1):

$SPX is trending up (trend is up)

Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)

$TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)

Utility Average MA rises (interest rate sensitive)

Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)


74% winning trades (13/18) since 1970. Beats buy and hold with less volatility.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

2. AlphaDow TSX -- 'Canadian Dow Theory' -- send feedback for ETF Focus List

Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true (+1). Stay invested until 3 turn false (+0).



$TSX is trending up (trend is up)



Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)



$TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)



Utility Average MA rises (interest sensitive)



Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)



67% winning trades since 1980 - beats buy and hold with lower volatility.



Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

3. AlphaGold - Intermarket System 3=BUY, 1=SELL (GLD or GDX)

Bullish when all three systems are on a BUY. Score +1 for each of the following TRUE statements:



1. US Dollar Index 12 wk EMA

2. Oil > 12 wk EMA

3. Dow > 48wk EMA



Buy Gold (GLD) if score is +3 (all three TRUE). Stay invested (long GLD or GDX) until 2 systems turn false (0).



14.8% CAGR with 13.8% max drawdown 1954-1995. *Source: Wall Street Journal - Divining Gold's Next Move 2006



Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

4. AlphaBond - Intermarket System 3=BULL, 1=BEAR (TLT)

BULLISH on TLT when 3 systems are on BUY. BEARISH when count drops to 1 :

1. Fidelity Financial RS is positive = +1

2. Utility RS is positive = +1

3. Chemical RS is negative = +1

4. Nickel ROC is negative = +1

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