AlphaDow Barometer: Greek Crisis -- Danger or Opportunity?

Sean Gallagher Has Had Over 50 Followers Rank: 25 Followers: 60 Votes: 15 Years Member: 7 Last Update: 29 June 2015, 7:14 Categories: ETFs
General Market Commentary
Canadian Stocks

Click for AlphaDow ETF Barometer (Power Rankings)

Simply add up the numbers in the dots in each indicator pane. If the total remains above 3 continue to hold your long positions.

We remain on a BULLISH signal for the U.S. stock market (the count is currently 3 out of 5 possible points) and we will remain BULLISH until the count drops to 2 out of 5.

We have turned BEARISH on the Canadian stock market (2 out of 5) as of 5th June '15.

Click FOLLOW (at right) to stay on the right side of the market. Just like a real barometer, if the 'count' drops rapidly a larger change in the stock market can be expected.

The Call For The Week of June 29th:

Bonds and other safe haven assets rallied on Greek default fears while stocks and other risk assets declined. The Greek crisis needs to be kept in context: 11mm people and $1.8B Euros -- half the size of Ontario. The Chinese word crisis is made up of two characters - danger and opportunity. Keep your eye on our indicator page for clues as to the direction of this market. We were fortunate to raise cash three weeks ago and will look to deploy said cash in Europe on the dip.

AlphaGold has given us a 'BULLISH' signal. See chart #3. The pattern on GDXJ looks bullish to me and could be considered a 'bottoming formation'.

A Dow Theory bullish signal has been re-confirmed several times since the original BULLISH signal at 13,649.70 on 12/31/13. The Dow Theory is a form of technical analysis that relies on detecting trends in the stock market to determine an investment strategy. The detection of these trends may be interpreted differently by different analysts and the opinions expressed on this website may not be shared by other individuals who apply the same principles of Dow Theory. Past performance is not an indication of future returns. It should not be assumed that any recommendations made will be profitable or without the risk of loss. All in

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1. AlphaDow -- Five points possible. 5=BUY 2=SELL. Use SPY or the strongest (Alpha) ETFs.

Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true (+1):

$SPX is trending up (trend is up)

Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)

$TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)

Utility Average MA rises (interest rate sensitive)

Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)


74% winning trades (13/18) since 1970. Beats buy and hold with less volatility.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

2. AlphaDow TSX -- 'Canadian Dow Theory' -- send feedback for strongest (Alpha) ETFs plus sto

Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true (+1). Stay invested until 3 turn false (+0).

$TSX is trending up (trend is up)

Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)

$TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)

Utility Average MA rises (interest sensitive)

Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)

67% winning trades since 1980 - beats buy and hold with lower volatility.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

3. AlphaGold - 3 Point System for Gold 3=BUY, 1=SELL (GLD or GDX)

Bullish when all three systems are on a BUY. Score +1 for each of the following TRUE statements:

1. US Dollar Index 12 wk EMA
2. Oil > 12 wk EMA
3. Dow > 48wk EMA

Buy Gold (GLD) if score is +3 (all three TRUE). Stay invested (long GLD or GDX) until 2 systems turn false (0).

14.8% CAGR with 13.8% max drawdown 1954-1995. *Source: Wall Street Journal - Divining Gold's Next Move 2006

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

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