AlphaDow Barometer: Simplicity Is The Keynote Of All True Elegance

Sean Gallagher Has Had Over 50 Followers Rank: 25 Followers: 65 Votes: 18 Years Member: 6 Last Update: 25 March 2015, 12:08 Categories: ETFs
General Market Commentary
Canadian Stocks

Click for AlphaDow ETF Barometer (Power Rankings)

Use this barometer in combination with low cost ETFs like SPY or QQQ to make reasonably accurate forecasts on the overall stock market:

We are on a BULL signal (model is currently 5 for 5) and will remain as such until 3 of the 5 systems turn BEARISH. Click FOLLOW (at right) to stay on the right side of the market. Just like a real barometer, if the 'count' drops rapidly a larger change in the stock market can be expected.

The Call For The Week of March 23rd:

Stocks snapped a three-week losing streak last week fueled by dovish Fed comments and technology stocks hitting a 15-year high. Gains in bonds and gold were supported by a fall in the U.S. Dollar on reduced rate hike concerns. Continue to focus on buying the dips until the long term trend has changed.

Long: SPY, TLT, SHY

A Dow Theory bullish signal has been re-confirmed several times since the original BULLISH signal at 13,649.70 on 12/31/13. The Dow Theory is a form of technical analysis that relies on detecting trends in the stock market to determine an investment strategy. The detection of these trends may be interpreted differently by different analysts and the opinions expressed on this website may not be shared by other individuals who apply the same principles of Dow Theory. Past performance is not an indication of future returns. It should not be assumed that any recommendations made will be profitable or without the risk of loss. All investments involve the potential loss of capital.

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1. AlphaDow -- Five points possible. 5=BUY 2=SELL. Use SPY or the strongest (Alpha) ETFs.

Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true (+1):

$SPX is trending up (trend is up)

Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)

$TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)

Utility Average MA rises (interest rate sensitive)

Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)


74% winning trades (13/18) since 1970. Beats buy and hold with less volatility.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

2. AlphaDow TSX -- 'Canadian Dow Theory' -- send feedback for strongest (Alpha) ETFs plus sto

Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true (+1). Stay invested until 3 turn false (+0).

$TSX is trending up (trend is up)

Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)

$TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)

Utility Average MA rises (interest sensitive)

Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)

67% winning trades since 2000 - beats buy and hold with lower volatility.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

3. AlphaGold - 3 Point System for Gold 3=BUY, 1=SELL (GLD or GDX)

Bullish when all three systems are on a BUY. Score +1 for each of the following TRUE statements:

1. US Dollar Index < 12 wk EMA
2. Oil > 12 wk EMA
3. Dow > 48wk EMA

Buy Gold (GLD) if score is +3 (all three TRUE). Stay invested (long GLD or GDX) until 2 systems turn false (0).

14.8% CAGR with 13.8% max drawdown 1954-1995. *Source: Wall Street Journal - Divining Gold's Next Move 2006

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

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