AlphaDow Barometer Lite -- Remain long SPY, EWC, AGG. Buying IYR

Sean Gallagher Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 32 Followers: 45 Votes: 33 Years Member: 5 Last Update: 21 April 2014, 7:01 Categories: ETFs
General Market Commentary
Canadian Stocks

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The Call For The Week of April 21st:

Stocks rallied last week as bargain hunters entered after a two week pullback. Gold declined to a two week low as the US Dollar rallied. The Dow Utilities Index hit a new high without confirmation from the Dow Industrials. A mid-term election year pullback may still be in the cards. Keep some powder dry until the Dow Theory picture is resolved.

Canadian clients can now run our system using tax deferred ETFs. Create a stream of tax free income and have the benefits of a proven risk reduction system in place. Please send feedback for more information.

Dow Theory is still in BULL mode. Primary confirmation was 12/31/13. Primary non-confirmation since. The Dow Theory is a form of technical analysis that relies on detecting trends in the stock market to determine an investment strategy. The detection of these trends may be interpreted differently by different analysts and the opinions expressed on this website may not be shared by other individuals who apply the same principles of The Dow Theory. Past performance is not an indication of future returns. It should not be assumed that any recommendations made will be profitable or without the risk of loss or will equal the performance of the benchmark portfolio. All investments involve the potential loss of capital.

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1. AlphaDow -- a five point plan. 5=BUY 2=Sell. Use SPY or the strongest (Alpha) ETFs.

Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true (+1):

$SPX is trending up (trend is up)

Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)

$TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)

Utility Average MA rises (interest rate sensitive)

Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)


74% winning trades (13/18) since 1970. Beats buy and hold by 300% with less volatility. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

2. AlphaDow Canada -- Dow Theory for Canadians -- send feedback for strongest (Alpha) ETFs.

Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true (+1). Stay invested until 3 turn false (0).

$TSX is trending up (trend is up)

Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)

$TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)

Utility Average MA rises (interest sensitive)

Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)

67% winning trades since 2000 (2/3) beats buy and hold by 87%.


Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

3. AlphaGold - 1 chart 3 Indicators for Gold (GLD or GDX).

Bullish when all three systems are on a BUY. Score +1 for each of the following TRUE statements:

US Dollar Index 12wk EMA

Dow > 48wk EMA

Buy Gold (GLD) if score is 3. Stay invested (long GLD or GDX) until 2 turn false (0).

14.8% CAGR with 13.8% max drawdown 1954-1995. *Source: Wall Street Journal - Divining Gold's Next Move 2006

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

4. Canadian Equity 25% position

Stop loss at 100d MA

5. US Equity 25% Position

Stop loss at 100d MA

6. DBC - 25% position

7. Bonds (Safety) 25% -- hold for income. Stop loss at 100d MA.

Stop loss at 100d MA

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