AlphaDow Barometer: HERE'S WHAT TO DO NOW AND WHAT WE TOLD YOU TO DO THIS WEEK

Sean Gallagher Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 50 Followers: 44 Votes: 22 Years Member: 6 Last Update: 20 October 2014, 7:46 Categories: ETFs
General Market Commentary
Canadian Stocks

Click for AlphaDow ETF Advisor (Power Rankings)

Long: TLT, SHY, SPY, QQQ, cash

Wednesday we told you to invest $0.25 of the dollar you eventually want to have allocated to stocks. Thurs am at the open we spent another $0.25. The quality of the bounce will determine if we add to these positions or get stopped out. Stay tuned to this site and please VOTE daily. In fact, why don't you click on VOTE right now :)

*Thur: Put another $0.25 of the below mentioned dollar to work this am on the open.

*Special Wed update: Two VIX CVRIII BUY Signals back to back. Selling stampede within a BULL usually lasts 17-25 sessions (today was day 18). Reversal in S&P and Bonds may signal end of correction. If you have a dollar to spend, put $0.25 to work today.

The Call For The Week of Oct 20th:

Redemption for the bulls at the end of another down week for stocks. Bonds reversed at new highs in a classic blow off type move that may signal an intermediate term top in bonds. Know your risk tolerance and adjust your stops to just below Wednesday's possible capitulation lows.

A Dow Theory bullish signal has been re-confirmed several times since the original BUY at 13,649.70 on 12/31/13. The Dow Theory is a form of technical analysis that relies on detecting trends in the stock market to determine an investment strategy. The detection of these trends may be interpreted differently by different analysts and the opinions expressed on this website may not be shared by other individuals who apply the same principles of The Dow Theory. Past performance is not an indication of future returns. It should not be assumed that any recommendations made will be profitable or without the risk of loss or will equal the performance of the benchmark portfolio. All investments involve the potential loss of capital.

Less

1. AlphaDow -- Five points possible. 5=BUY 2=SELL. Use SPY or the strongest (Alpha) ETFs.

Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true (+1):

$SPX is trending up (trend is up)

Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)

$TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)

Utility Average MA rises (interest rate sensitive)

Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)


74% winning trades (13/18) since 1970. Beats buy and hold by 300% with less volatility. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

2. AlphaDow on TSX -- 'Canadian Dow Theory' -- send feedback for strongest (Alpha) ETFs plus sto

Bullish when 5 out of 5 are true (+1). Stay invested until 3 turn false (+0).

$TSX is trending up (trend is up)

Advance/Decline Line is trending up (buying power)

$TRAN is trending up (Dow Theory confirmation)

Utility Average MA rises (interest sensitive)

Bonds are trending up (interest rates are low)

67% winning trades since 2000 (2/3) beats buy and hold by 87%.


Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

3. AlphaGold - 3 Point System for Gold 3=BUY, 1=SELL (GLD or GDX)

Bullish when all three systems are on a BUY. Score +1 for each of the following TRUE statements:

1. US Dollar Index 12 wk EMA
2. Oil > 12 wk EMA
3. Dow > 48wk EMA

Buy Gold (GLD) if score is +3 (all three TRUE). Stay invested (long GLD or GDX) until 2 systems turn false (0).

14.8% CAGR with 13.8% max drawdown 1954-1995. *Source: Wall Street Journal - Divining Gold's Next Move 2006

Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not investment advice, but is for educational purposes only. Consult your investment advisor for additional information regarding suitability, fees, expenses and short term trading costs.

4. QQQ - Stop loss at $94.50 (stopped out last Friday)

5. SPY -- Stopped out at $194.43

Stop loss at 100d MA on weekly close

6. 25% Postition TLT Stop loss at $113.38

7. 25% Position: SHY - Cash proxy

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