Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 320 Votes: 144 Years Member: 10 Last Update: 24 June 2016, 17:39 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

24Jun16 - All hell breaks loose: Brits exit EU. Short Term Trends end abruptly (abrupt change equivalent to a step function). Tsunami of lower prices, especially in Europe and Emerging Markets.

22Jun16 - For the 3rd day markets are edging Up in the expectation that a Britain/EU divorce will not materialize. The actual vote comes tomorrow.

16Jun16 - European ETFs are tumbling, US ETFs not far behind.

10Jun16 - Few Buyers yesterday, 09 June, and even fewer today, 10 June, as most ETFs experienced a significant drop. Pain felt especially by International ETF owners.

SHORT TERM (Days ): 17Jun16 - The Short Term Rally weakened further this week: Ample evidence of this shown by the Market Strength Assessment Charts (0300 - 0328).

MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 17Jun16 - Chart 0006: The S&P 500 lost 1.19% this week. Momentum Indicators MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX have weakened but remain Bullish. AROON suggests the market has a mildly Bullish bias (it is above 0) however the Trend strength indicator, ADX(14) continues far below 20, suggesting that the market is trading in a narrow range.

LONG TERM (Months): 17Jun16 - Chart 0007: June is Down and recording a 4rth consecutive Up month is becoming less likely. The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) looks Bearish, the Percent Volume Indicator (PVO) continues on a downward path which is a sign that Volume is relatively weak, and finally, VORTEX (VTX) shows that the market is not Trending and has been trading in a narrow range.

Thanks very much for your support (Follows and Votes)

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0000 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary as of 24Jun16 in Progress

0000 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary

03Jun16 - There are a very large number of Bull, Trending Up, or Neutral ETFs and a quite small number of ETFs that look Bearish (Turning Down or Bear).

As a general rule, I personnaly invest only in ETFs that are (1) 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and (2) liquid (Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000).

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 13)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 19)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 23)
5000 - 5999 Day Trade - Intraday Charts. (Page 28)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 38)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 39)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 40)

Thanks very much for Follows and Votes!

0000.1 - Methodology -

Please Follow and please Vote.

ETFs are considered without a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is below 20
and are in a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is 20 or above.
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0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Erratic- Neutral (0) 24Jun16

0001 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Month Daily. Please vote. Thanks very much for your support!

24Jun16 - Abrupt one day fall on very heavy volume wiped out a developing Uptrend. RSI(14) fell to Bearish (below 50). MACD(20,35,10) signal staying Bearish.

17Jun16 - RSI(14) continues Bearish (below 50) but is flat as pace of fall has slowed. MACD(20,35,10) signal is Bearish. Present on the chart below are numerous Red Arrows (Bearish signals).

14Jun16 - RSI(14) is below 50 (Bearish). MACD(20,35,10) crossover signal to Bearish just took place and there are numerous Red Arrow (Bearish) signals are on this chart.

13Jun16 - RSI(14) is below 50 (Bearish) and dropping. MACD(20,35,10) crossover signal to Bearish looks close and so the likelihood of further price drops is increasing.

10Jun16 - RSI(14) is above 50 (Bullish) but dropping. MACD(20,35,10) signal is Bullish but Histogram is dropping and likelihood of a leg down have increased.

03Jun16 - RSI(14) is above 50 (Bullish) but it has flattened out. MACD(20,35,10) signal is Bullish but prices little changed last few days suggest that the S&P 500 may be 'Topping' and could be ready for another leg down.

Please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE' daily. Thanks very much!

0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Year Day- Erratic- Neutral (0) 24Jun16

0002 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Years Daily - Please continue to cast your Votes of Support. Thanks very much!

24Jun16 - The S&P 500 fell below Resistance today on heavy volume in stark contrast to where it seemed heading just a day earlier. RSI(14) is Bearish (below 50) and so are Momentum Indicators MACD and TSI. Signals suggest probability of continued Bearish activity. Hope that Britain would remain in the EU was dashed and the stock market was a casualty.

17Jun16 - S&P 500 prices worked lower but at a somewhat slower pace. RSI(14) is Bearish (below 50) and so are Momentum Indicators MACD and TSI. Signals suggest probability of continued Bearish activity.

14Jun16 - Caution: S&P 500 prices fell again. RSI(14) dropped below 50 and Momentum Indicators MACD and TSI have crossed Bearish. So far the damage is modest but signals suggest probability of more Bearish activity.

10Jun16 - Caution: S&P 500 prices may have begun to fall. RSI(14) is dropping and Momentum Indicators MACD and TSI appear to have crested. So far the damage has been slight and but exercise caution nevertheless.

03Jun16 - Caution: The S&P 500 is very slowly working higher but I am concerned that this market is running out of headroom. The ADX and VORTEX both suggest that market movement is relatively flat. Noteworthy also, historic highs which were hit more than 1 year ago and are now just ~35 points away.

Note - Overbought is the same as saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is the same as saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Erratic- Neutral (0) 24Jun16

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day. Thanks very much for your Votes!

24Jun16 - Gains of the last 4 days all went by the wayside as the market suffered a steep loss on heavy volume today. RSI(14) Indicator suggest the market will probably move lower.

17Jun16 - Numerous indicators suggest the market will probably move lower, however the pace of the drop has slowed. One Bullish sign, Slow Stochastics(5,3), which are very sensitive, show a bounce from Oversold

14Jun16 - RSI, MACD, Stochastics, ROC, FORCE, and SLOPE, all suggest the market will probably move lower. However it is still early and so this may just be a Short Term Consolidation period or it could be the start of a more serious move.

10Jun16 - For the week the S&P 500 is only down a few points however the moves yesterday and today reversed the direction of RSI(14). The MACD(12,26,9) signal remains Bullish however it appears to have peaked and so the market may move lower.


Thank you for 'Following' and 'Voting' daily. If you have a question, comment, or suggestion, please don't hesitate to email.

0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Month Daily- Short Term: Erratic- Neutral (0) 24Jun16

0004 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Months Daily - Thanks very much for your Votes and for your continued support!

24Jun16 - The Short Term Trend 'Up' that was building ended abruptly as the market underwent a 'step function' move to the downside on heavy volume. The S&P 500 along with the market in general suffered one of its worst losses in a quite some time.

22Jun16 - As one can see from this chart, a Short Term Trend 'Up' is now underway. On Thursday the 16th, the S&P 500 was down hard, staged a strong late day comeback, and was ahead at the Close. Since then the market has moved generally higher: The Close has been mostly higher and so has the Open.

17Jun16 - Thursday the S&P 500 was down hard, staged a strong late comeback, and was ahead at the close. Today however the market closed down and is very close to where it closed on Wednesday.

10Jun16 - The last 5 trading days the market rose on the first 3 days but then fell the last 2. Yesterday has the look of a Japanese Candle Spinning Top which suggests a standoff between Buyers and Sellers but today Buyers were in short supply. The market appears to have peaked at 2120.

03Jun16 - The last four Japanese Candlesticks reveal something very interesting. All four days the Candlesticks include relatively long lower wicks. This tells me that each day there was a tendency for a substantial drop but Buyers returned and lessened the daily changes. In fact, from the open on Tuesday to the close on Friday, the S&P 500 was little changed.


Please 'FOLLOW' and 'VOTE'. Thanks very much!

0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day Hourly- Early Signs: Under CHANDLR: Bear 24Jun16

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days

Note: When the Chandelier Exit (CHANDLR) is under market prices, it suggests an Uptrend. Conversely, when it is over market prices, it suggests a Downtrend.

22Jun16 - The S&P 500 has been above the CHANDLR indicator since the afternoon of 16 June- A Bullish signal

10Jun16 - The S&P 500 reversed course on Thursday, 09 June, and the fall accelerated on Friday, 10 June.

06Jun16 - S&P 500 has continued to work higher and has stayed above CHANDLR

Mike wrote:
'I really like your straight forward charts and the indicators that you use. Also , how you describe on what to expect from the speed & movement of the different indicators.'

StockCharts Members please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE' each and every day. Thanks very much!

0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 3 Years Weekly- Medium Term: Under Resistance- Neutral 24Jun16

0006 Question: What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?

24Jun16 - Medium Term (Weekly): An ugly end to the week left Momentum Indicators MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX Bullish but turning down. ADX(14) continues far below 20, suggesting that the market continues to trade in a narrow range.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend remains BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

17Jun16 - Medium Term (Weekly): Momentum Indicators MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX have weakened but remain Bullish. AROON suggests the market has a mildly Bullish bias (it is above 0) however the Trend strength indicator, ADX(14) continues far below 20, suggesting that the market is trading in a narrow range.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend continued BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

10Jun16 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 registered a slightly Down week however Momentum Indicators MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX remain Bullish. AROON is mildly Bullish. Diverging Signals: The ADX(14) reading continues far below 20, signaling a Trendless market, however VTX(14) disagrees, suggesting that the market is Bullish.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend continued BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

03Jun16 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 was flat this week, changing up a mere $0.07.
RSI(14) stayed Bullish (above 50) and Momentum Indicators MACD and PPO both remain Bullish but their Histograms are flat. The ADX(14) reading is well below 20 signaling a market that is Trendless. The last seven weeks have been flat which suggests the market may be Topping.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend continued BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).


Many thanks for your support (

0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs- Long Term (Monthly): Neutral 24Jun16

0007 - Question: What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index. Thanks for your continued support!

24Jun16 - Prospects for June being the 4rth consecutive Up month have been seriously hurt by BREXIT turmoil. The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) remains Bearish. The VORTEX continues to suggest that on a Long Term basis the market has been relatively flat for about 18 months.

17Jun16 - Thursday the S&P 500 was down hard, staged a strong late comeback, and was ahead at the close. Today however the S&P 500 closed down and is very close to where it closed on Wednesday.

10Jun16 - June is down a scant 0.04% and may not prove to be the 4rth consecutive Up month. The quite reliable Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) remains Bearish and the Percent Volume Indicator (PVO) continues to fall, suggesting that Volume is dropping. VORTEX suggests that on a monthly basis the market is flat.

03Jun16 - After 3 days June is up but only a tiny 0.10%.
Both VORTEX, a Trend indicator, and BBW (in a 'Squeeze') suggest that notwithstanding the oscillations of the last 12 months, on a Monthly basis the S&P 500 market is little changed.
Plummeting PVO signals that price gains have been accompanied by lower Volume

27May16 - 3rd straight monthly gain (1.63%), however PMO appears flat, VORTEX (Trend Indicator) and BBW in a 'Squeeze' suggest that the market is actually quite flat and that monthly prices have just been oscillating within a narrow range.


Thanks very much for your continued support!

0008 - S&P 500 Large Caps Index ($SPX) - 5 Years Monthly MA 50 vs. MA 200 24Jun16

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