Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 319 Votes: 145 Years Member: 10 Last Update: 2 May 2016, 18:16 Categories: Trend Analysis
Swing Trading

29Apr16 - The market may be entering a temporary consolidation period. Watch market breadth (Charts 0030 - 0034) to see if the breakdown in prices is just part of a healthy consolidation period or something more serious.
29Apr16 - Per Chart 0010, the S&P 500 can be seen to have tumbled out of the Resistance zone. MACD, KST, TSI, and TRIX have all crossed Bearish. Certainly the Short Term Rally which began in February appears to be in jeopardy.
22Apr16 - For the last three weeks many of the 6 Month Charts show the Momentum Indicators (MACD, PMO, TRIX) moving horizontally. This suggests the pace of price change is slow.
15Apr16 - For the week just past I see few steep losses among ETFs. On the other hand, some ETFs look Bullish but with little conviction. Price gains appear to be hard won and small.

SHORT TERM (Days ): 29Apr16 - The Short Term Rally which began mid February appears to have run its course. Many ETFs are close to being declared Short Term Bearish.

MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 29Apr16 - Chart 0006 shows the Medium Term Weekly Trend continues to signal Bull but barely so. Momentum Indicators MACD, PMO, TSI, and TRIX appear to be topping.

LONG TERM (Months): 29Apr16 - Chart 0007 shows the S&P 500 ahead a mere 0.27% for April. The weak finish does not bode well going forward.


0000 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary Complete as of 29Apr16

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I personally invest only in ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
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Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 15)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 22)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 37)

6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 44)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 45)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 45)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 46)

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0000.1 - Methodology -

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ETFs are considered without a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is below 20 and are in a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is 20 or above.

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- RSI: Falling- Neutral (0) 29Apr16

0001 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Month Daily. Please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE' daily. Thanks very much!

29Apr16 - The S&P 500 is on the cusp of being declared Short Term Turning Down (-2). It looks like 'Sell in May' may come true. MACD has just crossed Bearish following a lengthy flat period.

22Apr16 - The S&P 500 continued to move higher but the pace of increase is much slower than it was. The flat movement of MACD shows this. Also the Chaikin Oscillator shows more buying than selling pressure

15Apr16 - The Zig-Zag upward pattern continued this week. The market is higher than it has been in quite some some although the pace of the rise has visibly slowed. Mind the BBW 'Squeeze'.

08Apr16 - The duration of the current move lower is longer than those of past weeks and this time the MACD has crossed Bearish. Both Vortex and RSI confirm the Short Term Uptrend has either slowed considerably or could be over.

01Apr16 - Bear came out of hibernation, didn't like what he saw, and went back to sleep. Bull market shows almost no signs of weakness save MACD flat and Histogram very close to 0,

DeWayne wrote: 'I am impressed with your charts. The trend and momentum indicators that you use are very clear.'

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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Year Day- RSI: Falling- Neutral (0) 29Apr16

0002 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Years Daily - Please continue to cast your Votes of Support. Thanks very much!

29Apr16 - MACD, TSI, and TRIX signals are Bearish. The S&P 500 has dropped below Resistance and both RSI and Stochastics are dropping.

22Apr16 - RESISTANCE: MACD, TSI, and TRIX signals remain in disagreement. MACD is flat, TSI is Bullish and TRIX is Bearish. Since mid February the S&P 500 has gained 180 points and in this area there is considerable resistance to go higher.

15Apr16 - Here's a first: MACD, TSI, and TRIX signals are in disagreement. MACD is flat, TSI is Bullish and TRIX is Bearish. In point of fact, this market has been a mighty Bull since mid February but Flat if you look at it since the beginning of the year!

08Apr16 - Signs of decline are numerous, RSI and Stochastics are dropping and MACD, TSI, TRIX, MFI all look very close to Bearish crossovers.
In addition the Vortex Indicator looks close to a Bearish cross.

01Apr16 - Only a couple of signs which could indicate a weakening Bull. (1) Money Flow Index (MFI) dropped below 80, and (2) MACD Histogram continues to fall. If the S&P 500 continues to rise, it will be in an area of Resistance and close to Historic Highs. Other than these few things, all other indicators are holding strong.

Note - Overbought same as saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold same as saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- MACD: Bearish- RSI: Falling- Neutral (0) 29Apr16

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day. Thanks very much for your Votes!

29Apr16 - Signals (see Red Arrows) have turned Bearish. Weak earnings and poor economic reports have the Sell in May crowd out early.

22Apr16 - The price chart looks OK but RSI and Stochastics suggest the market may be running on fumes. MACD has been flat to down which does not bode well.

15Apr16 - Another Whipsaw looks very possible as the MACD dipped Bearish but now looks as though it will soon cross Bullish.

08Apr16 - The market met Resistance and fell back. RSI, and Stochastics fell below Overbought thresholds and MACD crossed Bearish. ROC, Vortex, and FORCE all felt the downward pressure as well.

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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day- Medium Term: Bull- MACD: Bearish- Neutral (0) 29Apr16

0004 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Months Daily - Thanks very much for your Votes and for your continued support!

29Apr16 - The Short Term Trend is to the downside, although the Medium Term Trend remains Bullish. MACD and Stochastics suggest a further drop in prices is likely.

22Apr16 - A brief visit to 2111 on Wednesday marked the latest high. On Friday the S&P 500 dipped 30 points below that mark but closed only 20 points lower at 2091. MACD has been flat for several weeks, reflecting the fact that recent gains have been modest.

15Apr16 - Zig-Zag: Another Zig Up this week, but the Zigs Up are shorter in duration and the Zags Down longer. Caution: ADX and Vortex suggest that the Up Trend may be short lived.

08Apr16 - The last five days the Bull performed a jog down. We've seen this maneuver before, however this time MACD crossed to Bearish and Stochastics fell below 80.

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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day Hrly- Early Signs: Below CHANDLR- Bearish- 29Apr16

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days

05Apr16 - S&P 500 is below CHANDLR - Bearish development

Mike wrote:
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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 3 Yr- Weekly Medium Term: Bull 29Apr16

0006 Question: What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index? Please cast your Votes. Many Thanks!

29Apr16 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 dropped this week and closed down -1.26%. RSI dipped and Momentum Indicators (MACD and PPO) appear to have have crested and may drop to Bearish crossovers.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend continued BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is slightly ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

22Apr16 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 climbed further into the Resistance zone and closed ahead 0.52%. MACD, PMO, TSI, and TRIX signal Bull, as does RSI(14).
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend continued BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

15Apr16 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 climbed back into the Resistance zone on the back of two strong days and closed the week ahead 1.62% and importantly is now Medium Term Bullish.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend crossed BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is ABOVE the 34 Week EMA) after being BEARISH the entire first quarter of 2016.

08Apr16 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 gave up much of the gain of last week. The momentum of this uptrend appears to be slowing, but on a weekly basis at least, it does not appear to have ended. That having been said both RSI(5) and RSI(14) are dropping, although thus far the pace is modest.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend continues BEARISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is BELOW the 34 Week EMA) however the distance between the 13 Week Green Line and the 34 Week Red Line is now tiny and a Bullish Cross appears likely in the very near future.

0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs- Monthly Long Term: Above Down-Trend- Turning Up 29Apr16

0007 - Question: What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index. Thanks for your Votes!

29Apr16 - April 2016 trading is history and April closed ahead a disappointing 0.27%. Indeed a second positive month since the February Bullish Hammer however the weak finish does not bode well going forward.

22Apr16 - With three quarters of April in the books, the S&P 500 is ahead 1.55% for the month. A second positive month since the February Bullish Hammer puts the S&P 500 above the Long Term Trend line (shown in Orange).

15Apr16 - Halfway through the month of April, the S&P 500 is ahead a respectable 1.02%, but more importantly it looks as though the S&P 500 has breached the Long Term Trend line. Interestingly also, the Vortex suggests that the Long Term Trend has been flat since July of 2015.

08Apr16 - Although March was a very good month, the flat to down pattern that began last April was not broken in March. If 1st Quarter earnings are good the pattern could be broken, however thus far April is off to a relatively slow start.

01Apr16 - The February Japanese Candlestick 'Bullish Hammer' signal was followed by a very strong March, which closed ahead +6.60%.

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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 30 Yrs Mnthly- Long Term DECLINE per PMO: Exercise Caution 29Apr16

0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) - 30 Years Monthly
29Jan16 - CAUTION: The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has been a reliable guide to Long Term market direction and it is presently signaling that a Long Term decline is underway.

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