Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 316 Votes: 153 Years Member: 10 Last Update: 25 May 2016, 12:51 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

25May16 - Strong gains have pushed the S&P 500 close to 2100. Gains are being seen in Small and Mid Cap shares as well and optimism abroad has International shares moving higher.

13May16 - Notwithstanding one Up day late last week and gains the first two days of this week, weakness returned with most ETFs down, leaving few Bullish options. The market has lost ground for three successive weeks, leaving many ETFs teetering on the brink of being declared Bearish.

06May16 - Per Chart 0010, the S&P 500 fell further under the Resistance zone. Momentum Indicators, MACD, KST, TSI, and TRIX, are all in alignment, all Bearish. Stochastics and StochRSI have moved into the Oversold region. The S&P 500 could easily move below 2000 before it finds Support.

SHORT TERM (Days ): 20May16 - Market Breadth Charts (0030 - 0034) show continued underlying weakness putting the Short Term Rally in serious jeopardy.

MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 20May16 - Chart 0006: The Medium Term Weekly Trend of the S&P 500 is holding Bullish, buoyed by a small improvement this week of 0.28%; Momentum Indicators MACD and PPO were little changed.

LONG TERM (Months): 20May16 - Chart 0007: The S&P 500 is down in May -0.63%. Confirmed downward drift does not bode well going forward.

Less

0000 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary Complete as of 20May16

As a general rule, I try to chart only those ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 13)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 19)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 23)
5000 - 5999 Day Trade - Intraday Charts. (Page 28)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 38)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 39)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 40)

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0000.1 - Methodology -

Please Follow and please Vote.

ETFs are considered without a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is below 20
and are in a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is 20 or above.
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0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- RSI: Up- Neutral (0) 24May16

0001 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Month Daily. Please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE' daily. Thanks very much!

20May16 - Another leg down in the 'Short Term Down Trend' may have ended on Friday but MACD continues Bearish. RSI(5) and RSI(14) are again below 50 (Bearish) although both are now pointing up. However when all is said and done the S&P 500 two month range has been modest (from 2111 to 2025).

13May16 - Three up days gave a brief pause to the 'Short Term Turning Down' (-2) trend however the few Bullish Signals (Green Up Arrows) have been replaced by more Bearish Signals (Red Down Arrows). RSI(5) and RSI(14) are again below 50 (Bearish) and the MACD(20,35,10) Histogram is flat.

11May16 - Three up days give pause to the 'Short Term Turning Down' (-2) trend. There are some Bullish Signals (Green Up Arrows) . RSI(5) and RSI(14) are both above 50 (Bullish) and MACD(20,35,10) Histogram shows improvement.

06May16 - For more than two weeks the S&P 500 has been falling and is in now 'Short Term Turning Down' (-2). Signals (Red Down Arrows) are many. RSI(5) is below 50 (Bearish) and importantly MACD(20,35,10) is also Bearish.

29Apr16 - The S&P 500 is on the cusp of being declared Short Term Turning Down (-2). It looks like 'Sell in May' may come true. MACD has just crossed Bearish following a lengthy flat period.

DeWayne wrote: 'I am impressed with your charts. The trend and momentum indicators that you use are very clear.'

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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Year Day- RSI: Up- Neutral (0) 24May16

0002 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Years Daily - Please continue to cast your Votes of Support. Thanks very much!

20May16 - The S&P 500 continued to work lower and Red Down Arrows hold sway. The RSI(14) is below 50 (Bearish) and the trend of RSI(14) is to the downside. MACD, TSI, and TRIX all continue to point down.

13May16 - The S&P 500 moved higher for several days and was briefly within the Resistance area but that uptick was short lived and Red Down Arrows hold sway. The ADX(14) suggests that the market is either Trendless or possibly in a Trend Transition (from Bull to Bear).

11May16 - MACD, TSI, and TRIX signals remain Bearish although they appear to have bottomed. This reflects the fact that the S&P 500 moved higher for several days and is in fact once again within the Resistance area. The ADX(14) suggests that the market is either Trendless or less likely, possibly in a Trend Transition.

06May16 - MACD, TSI, and TRIX signals remain Bearish. The S&P 500 is below Resistance although one signal, RSI(5), ticked Up (above 30).

29Apr16 - MACD, TSI, and TRIX signals are Bearish. The S&P 500 has dropped below Resistance and both RSI and Stochastics are dropping.


Note - Overbought same as saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold same as saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- MACD: Turning Up- RSI: Up- Neutral (0) 24May16

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day. Thanks very much for your Votes!

20May16 - Since March of this year, one can see that a possible 'Head and Shoulders' reversal pattern has developed. This is a Bearish pattern that does not usually bode well for future prices.

13May16 - Bullish signals (Green Arrows) produced by three Up days are history. Per the Vortex Trend Direction indicator, the probable future direction of the market looks to be Down.

11May16 - Some Bullish signals (Green Arrows) are now evident but per the Vortex Trend direction indicator, uncertainty remains as to the direction of the market.

06May16 - Signals (Red Arrows) remain Bearish. S&P 500 is very close to being rated Bear (-4), however one positive development is that RSI(5) has ticked up slightly.

Wes wrote:
'Great simple tech. indicators..heck yah you got my vote....Thanks for the hard work..'

Thank you for 'Following' and 'Voting' daily. If you have a question, comment, or suggestion, please don't hesitate to email.

0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Month Daily- Short Term: Turning Up (2) 24May16

0004 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Months Daily - Thanks very much for your Votes and for your continued support!

20May16 - The Short Term Trend Down has continued with Lower Highs and Lower Lows for the last 9 days even though for the week the market was up slightly. In addition the move to the downside has at least thus far been modest.

13May16 - The Short Term Trend to the Upside ended as quickly as it began. Three Down days have left the S&P 500 about where it was six days ago.

11May16 - The Short Term Trend to the downside appears to have ended insofar as three up days have improved the Short Term picture. MACD Histogram is rising and Stochastic is no longer Oversold.

06May16 - The Short Term Trend continues to the downside. MACD suggests a further drop in prices is likely to occur although Stochastic has ticked up slightly.

Brent wrote:
'I really appreciate your charts. Clear, concise, and diverse. A person does not need any more to make profitable investment decisions.'

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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day Hourly- Early Signs: Above CHANDLR- Bullish- 25May16

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days

05Apr16 - S&P 500 is below CHANDLR - Bearish development

Mike wrote:
'I really like your straight forward charts and the indicators that you use. Also , how you describe on what to expect from the speed & movement of the different indicators.'

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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 3 Yr- Weekly Medium Term: Turning Down 20May16

0006 Question: What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index? Please cast your Votes. Many Thanks!

13May16 - Medium Term (Weekly): 3rd Week the S&P 500 dropped, this week down -0.51%. RSI(14) is edging toward Bearish territory (below 50) and Momentum Indicators MACD and PPO crept closer to Bearish crossovers.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend continued BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

06May16 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 dropped again this week and closed down -0.40%. RSI dipped and Momentum Indicators (MACD and PPO) are slightly closer to Bearish crossovers.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend continued BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) remains slightly ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

29Apr16 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 dropped this week and closed down -1.26%. RSI dipped and Momentum Indicators (MACD and PPO) appear to have crested and may drop to Bearish crossovers.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend continued BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is slightly ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

22Apr16 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 climbed further into the Resistance zone and closed ahead 0.52%. MACD, PMO, TSI, and TRIX signal Bull, as does RSI(14).
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend continued BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs- Long Term (Monthly): Slight Down-Trend- Neutral 20May16

0007 - Question: What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index. Thanks for your Votes!

20May16 - A gain of the S&P 500 this week puts the month of May down -0.63%. The movement lower falls in line with the market's slow downward drift.

13May16 - The S&P 500 lost again this week putting the month of May down (-0.90%). The movement lower in May falls in line with the market's slow downward drift which does not bode well going forward.

06May16 - The 1st Trading Week of May is over and the month began down slightly (-0.40%). The early promise of April was, in the end, never realized and May appears to be continuing the market's slow downward drift.

29Apr16 - April 2016 trading is history and April closed ahead a disappointing 0.27%. Indeed a second positive month since the February Bullish Hammer however the weak finish does not bode well going forward.

22Apr16 - With three quarters of April in the books, the S&P 500 is ahead 1.55% for the month. A second positive month since the February Bullish Hammer puts the S&P 500 above the Long Term Trend line (shown in Orange).

From a reader: 'Great job -your charts help me a lot. thank you'

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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 30 Yrs Mnthly- Long Term DECLINE per PMO: Exercise Caution 20May16

0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) - 30 Years Monthly
29Jan16 - CAUTION: The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has been a reliable guide to Long Term market direction and it is presently signaling that a Long Term decline is underway.

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