Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!
0000 Guesswork Gone- Winners/Losers Summary Updates as of 28Aug15
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I never Buy any ETF whose SCTR is below 70 and especially avoid like the plague any ETF whose SCTR is below 30. As a general rule, I rate only those ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.
Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 15)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 22)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 36)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 44)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 45)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 45)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 46)
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0000.1 - Guesswork Gone - Methodology -
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ETFs are rated from Weakest to Strongest based upon whether they are in a Trend and the strength of that Trend.
ETFs are considered trendless if their ADX Line is below 20 and are trending if their ADX Line is 20 or above and rising.
Bull shares that are rising are given even numbers. Bull shares that are falling are given odd numbers.
===================== RISING ==== FALLING
STRONGEST BULL ======= 8 ======== 7
======================= 6 ======== 5
======================= 4 ======== 3
WEAKEST BULL ========= 2 ======== 1
Bear shares that are falling are given even numbers. Bear shares that are rising are given odd numbers.
==================== FALLING ===== RISING
MOST BEARISH ======== -8 ========= -7
===================== -6 ========= -5
===================== -4 ========= -3
LEAST BEARISH ======= -2 ========= -1
Thanks very much to Herb for contributing the above!
0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Bounce Gaining Traction- Turning Up (2) 28Aug15
0001 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Yr Day - Please Follow and please Vote. Thanks very much!
28Aug15 - The market briefly hit the Lows of last October before recovering the last three days of the week. Support was signaled by an RSI(14) which reached Oversold. MACD, TSI, and TRIX and ROC registered very low readings not seen for quite some time but have all reversed course.
21Aug15 - The seven month Large Cap rolling consolidation ended; the market is now in CORRECTION territory: Further loss of Momentum shown by indicators MACD, TSI, TRIX. Possible support in this area. RSI(14) reached Oversold.
Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.
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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day Med. Term: BEARISH- Short Term: Turning Up (2) 28Aug15
0002 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Mo Day - Close Look - Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much!
28Aug15 - Flash crash on Monday followed by recovery toward end of week. Indicators rising (MACD Histogram) and suggest prospects of a brighter future.
21Aug15 - Party is Over for Bulls. Volume heavy, Indicators BEARISH: The Intermediate Trend is BEARISH as is MACD. The S&P 500 50 Day Moving Average is far below the 200 Day Moving Average.
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0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- MACD: Improving- Turning Up (2) 28Aug15
0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day
28Aug15 - Indicators have all recorded large dips but are now improving. The MACD was strongly Bearish but it is now rising. RSI(14) has risen from Oversold as have Stochastics. ROC and FORCE reflect violent decline but are now rising. As suggested last week, 'the drop was so steep and far that the market may have or will soon wash out'.
21Aug15 - The MACD, looks strongly Bearish. The market is no longer in a Trading Range. RSI(14) Oversold. Stochastics Oversold. ROC and FORCE show strength of drop. The good news is that the drop was so steep and far that the market may have or will soon 'wash out'.
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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Indicators: OVERSOLD- Turning Up (2) 28Aug15
0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Mo Day - Support Zones
28Aug15 - The Trading Range ended last Monday with frantic sellers bailing out. Buyers returned as Oversold signals were flashed by RSI, StochRSI and Stochastics. The MACD is improving and suggests better times in the immediate future.
Note: Being 'Overbought' implies prices have risen quickly while 'Oversold' implies prices have fallen quickly.
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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day 1 Hr- Above CHANDLR (BULL)- Turning Up (2) 28Aug15
0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
24Aug15 - Market looking Oversold -
07Aug15 - Bear: Strong (-4): The S&P 500 is below the CHANDLR
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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Week- Medium Term- Bullish Hammer- Turning Down (-2) 28Aug15
0006 What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?
28Aug15 - Medium Term (Weekly): Although the S&P 500 (Large Cap) fell off a cliff at the beginning of the week, it came back toward the end of the week and closed Up.
Bullish: The weekly activity formed a Bullish Hammer.
Bearish: The 'Medium Term' Trend turned Bearish (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is below the 34 Week EMA)
Bearish: Indicators MACD, PPO, TRIX, and TSI are all tracing Bearish patterns.
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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Month- Long Term- Turning Down (-2) 28Aug15
0007 - What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index
28Aug15 - The Long Term direction of the S&P 500 has taken on a Bearish tone. The Bearish signal given by the Price Momentum Oscillator deepened.
August 2015 is the worst month in years for the market. The last week severe damage was initially inflicted but very possibly this will mark the bottom.
21Aug15 - The Long Term direction of the S&P 500 has taken on a more Bearish tone. The Bearish signal given by the Price Momentum Oscillator deepened.
The good news is that the market looks Oversold and twice before support was found in this area.
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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Chart- Signs Improving- Turning Up (2) 28Aug15
0008 - Two year Chart of the S&P 500 (the market).
28Aug15 - There has been a convincing bounce. Indicators MACD and KST have bottomed and are now moving in a positive direction.
21Aug15 - The 7 month mostly flat period ended abruptly. Good news: Twice before the market found support in this area.
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comments on the charts. Thank you'
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