Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 324 Votes: 158 Years Member: 10 Last Update: 28 July 2016, 17:03 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

22Jul16 - Markets appear to be on Pause. Most are moving in a more or less flat trajectory. The S&P 500 set another new All-Time-Highs but market Volume has been tepid.

20Jul16 - On Chart 0002 one can see that the MFI (Money Flow Index) has reached Overbought. Typically this index doesn't stay Overbought for a long time so I expect a price drop and period of consolidation in the not too distant future.

15Jul16 - US, and Emerging Markets are doing quite well. European share prices perked up while Gold and Silver ETFs were flat.The S&P 500 is well above old All-Time-Highs set March of 2015.

14Jul16 - Another All-Time-High for the S&P 500!

11Jul16 - S&P 500 has set new a All-Time-High!

SHORT TERM (Days ): 22Jul16 - Caution: Is a pullback ahead? The Market Strength Assessment Charts (0300 - 0440) suggest some market weakness.

MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 22Jul16 - Chart 0006: This week the S&P 500 was up 0.61% and the S&P 500 set a new All-Time-Weekly-High. Important: The Percentage Volume Oscillator shows that Volume has been anemic and doesn't confirm the Bullish breakout.

LONG TERM (Months): 22Jul16 - Chart 0007: At the three-quarter mark the month of July is ahead 3.00% and well on its way to become the 5th consecutive Up month. Volume however has been weak.

Thanks very much for your support (Follows and Votes)

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0000 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary Complete as of 22Jul16

0000 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary

08Jul16 - There are a large number of Bull, Turning Up, or Neutral ETFs and a quite small number of ETFs that look Bearish (Turning Down or Bear).

As a general rule, I personally invest only in ETFs that are (1) 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and (2) liquid (Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000).

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 13)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 19)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 23)
5000 - 5999 Day Trade - Intraday Charts. (Page 28)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 38)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 39)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 40)

Thanks very much for Follows and Votes!

0000.1 - Methodology -

Please Follow and please Vote.

ETFs are considered without a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is below 20
and are in a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is 20 or above.
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0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- RSI: Flat- Neutral (0) 22Jul16

0001 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Month Daily. Please vote. Thanks very much for your support!

27Jul16 - Same old, same old: Price change has visibly slowed, MACD Histogram continues to drop, RSI(14) is flat. Is this the pause that refreshes or a Top? Hard to say but Percentage Volume Oscillator (PVO) supports the latter.

22Jul16 - Has the price surge ended: The pace of price increase has visibly slowed, MACD Histogram continues to slowly fall, RSI(14) is flat, and Slow Stochastics fell below Overbought.

20Jul16 - Bullish Picture continues but pace of increase has slowed: MACD is Bullish although Histogram is slowly falling. RSI(14) is above 50 (Bullish) but is flat; Stochastics have stayed Overbought.

15Jul16 - Bullish Picture: MACD is Bullish. RSI(14) is above 50 (Bullish) and Stochastics are Overbought.

13Jul16 - The S&P 500 is setting All-Time-Highs. RSI(14) is above 50 (Bullish) and Stochastics are Overbought. MACD is Bullish.

Please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE' daily. Thanks very much!

0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Year Day- In Resistance- Neutral (0) 22Jul16

0002 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Years Daily - Please continue to cast your Votes of Support. Thanks very much!

27Jul16 - Another flat day. Momentum Indicators are still Bullish but curves are beginning to crest. Market Top may be developing so be cautious. Now doesn't look like a time to put new money to work; taking profits seems like a much more reasonable strategy.

22Jul16 - Uncertainty: The MFI (Money Flow Index) reached Overbought briefly and fell. Momentum Indicators continue to give off Bullish signals however the current period of relatively flat prices may be a period of consolidation or, the market may be at a Top and will fall in the not too distant future.

20Jul16 - The MFI (Money Flow Index) has reached Overbought. Typically this index doesn't stay Overbought for a long time so I expect a price drop and period of consolidation in the not too distant future.

15Jul16 - The S&P 500 is well above the All-Time-Highs set last May and close to the top of Resistance. RSI(14) is over 50 (Bullish), MACD, TSI, and TRIX have all crossed Bullish.

13Jul16 - RSI(14) is over 50 (Bullish), MACD, TSI, and TRIX have all crossed Bullish. The S&P 500 is in new territory, well above the All-Time-Highs that were set last May.

Note - Overbought is the same as saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is the same as saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- RSI: Flat- Neutral (0) 22Jul16

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day. Thanks very much for your Votes!

27Jul16 - MACD Histogram continues to erode as prices remain almost unchanged. Reflecting price change, RSI(14) is flat as well. Market is either in a Consolidation or forming a Top. Per the Percentage Volume Oscillator (PVO), Volume remains light and light Volume suggests a Top.

22Jul16 - Rate of change of price increase is very flat. Slope of RSI(14) is quite flat as well. Slow Stochastics have dipped under Overbought. Volume continues relatively low.

20Jul16 - Rate of price increase has slowed: Slope of RSI(14) looks flat as prices rise but more slowly. Stochastics are Overbought (but also flat). Volume has been relatively low even as prices have continued to rise.

15Jul16 - Rosy Picture: RSI(14) remains above the Bullish threshold (50) but not Overbought. MACD(12,26,9) is Bullish; SLOPE and ROC are both positive (Bullish) and moving higher. Stochastics are Overbought (reflecting rising prices).

08Jul16 - RSI(14) has crossed the Bullish threshold (50). Both SLOPE and ROC are in positive territory (Bullish) and so too is MACD(12,26,9).

Thank you for your support. If you have a question, comment, or suggestion, please don't hesitate to email.

0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Month Daily- Short Term: Neutral (0) 22Jul16

0004 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Months Daily - Thanks very much for your continued support (Votes and Follows).

27Jul16 - Slowing Rise: For the last nine days price change has been negligible. MACD(12,26,9) is Bullish but the MACD Histogram is very weak.

22Jul16 - Slowing Rise: The Green Dotted Line shows that the Short Term Trend is higher but the rate of climb is slow. MACD(12,26,9) is Bullish but the MACD Histogram is dropping.

20Jul16 - The Short Term Trend as given by MACD(12,26,9) looks Bullish but the slope of the MACD Histogram is falling. This reflects the slowing rate of price increase.

15Jul16 - The Bullish Medium Term Trend gained strength (EMA 13 vs. EMA 34) and per MACD(12,26,9), so did the Short Term Trend.

08Jul16 - The Medium Term Trend is Bullish and so is the Short Term Trend Indicator MACD(12,26,9). The Short Term Trend 'Up' struggled early but gained strength this four day week.

Please 'FOLLOW' and 'VOTE'. Thanks very much!

0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day Hourly- Early Signs: CHANDLR: Bull 27Jul16

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days

20Jul16 - Bullish: The S&P 500 is staying above the CHANDLR indicator where it has been for the last 9 days.

01Jul16 - Bullish: The S&P 500 has been above the CHANDLR indicator since 29 June.

22Jun16 - The S&P 500 has been above the CHANDLR indicator since the afternoon of 16 June- A Bullish signal

10Jun16 - The S&P 500 reversed course on Thursday, 09 June, and the fall accelerated on Friday, 10 June.

FYI: When the Chandelier Exit (CHANDLR) is under market prices, it suggests an Uptrend. Conversely, when it is over market prices, it suggests a Downtrend.

Thanks very much for your continued Support! Please don't forget to register your Vote.

0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 3 Years Weekly- Medium Term: Above Resistance- Rising 22Jul16

0006 Question: What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?

22Jul16 - The week the S&P 500 closed up 0.61%, setting another new All-Time-Weekly-Highs. Momentum Indicators MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX continued to strengthen, however the Percentage Volume Oscillator (PVO) shows that Volume is not confirming the apparent Bullish breakout.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend is BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

20Jul16 - Thus far the week is Up. New All-Time-Weekly-Highs are being set. Momentum Indicators MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX are strengthening.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend is BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

15Jul16 - A 3rd strong week put the S&P 500 ahead 1.49% and importantly set a new All-Time-Weekly-High. Momentum Indicators MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX look strong.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend remains BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

08Jul16 - A strong finish to a short week put the S&P 500 ahead 1.28% and close to the top of Resistance and near a new All-Time-High. Momentum Indicators MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX look stronger, however ADX(14) continues far below 20, suggesting that Medium Term the market continues flat.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend remains BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

Thank you very much for your Support.

0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs- Long Term (Monthly): Turning Up 22Jul16

0007 - Question: What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index. Thanks for your continued support!

22Jul16 - With only five trading days left in July, the S&P 500 is now up 3.63% and very likely to record the fifth straight month of gains. Fly in ointment: Notwithstanding the gains, the Percent Volume Indicator (PVO), signals that the volume is below average, not a good sign for a Bull market.

15Jul16 - Halfway through July the S&P 500 is now up 3.00% and on track to register the fifth straight month of gains. Although new All-Time-Highs have been set, the market has been relatively flat for 14+ months.

08Jul16 - July is now ahead 1.48%. If prices stay above 2100, July will register the fifth straight month of gains. That having been said, the market has been flat for 14+ months (VTX(14) couldn't be much flatter, and PVO (Percent Volume Indicator) continues to fall).

01Jul16 - June Miracle: Down 4.60% at the close of trading on Monday, the S&P 500 managed to eke out a small gain by the end of trading on Thursday, the end of the month and so registered the 4th straight monthly gain.

Thanks very much for your continued support!

0008 - S&P 500 Large Caps Index ($SPX) - 5 Years Monthly MA 50 vs. MA 200 22Jul16

0008 - S&P 500 Large Caps Index ($SPX) - 5 Years Monthly MA 50 vs. MA 200

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