Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 310 Votes: 191 Years Member: 9 Last Update: 2 September 2015, 11:59 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

02Sep15 - Chart 0001: Huge market swings (volatility) have resulted in a large Bollinger Band 'BULGE'. Extremes like this don't last a long time.
28Aug15 - BULLISH: On 24Aug15 both the Total Put/Call Ratio ($CPC) Weekly Sentiment Indicator (Chart 0035) and the McClellan Oscillator (Chart 0028) Signaled a BOTTOM.
24Aug15 - Dive Dive Dive!!! Violent ride continues, however RSI and Stochastics are reaching Oversold territory.
21Aug15 - Ouch!!! Gradual decline became a rout as Sellers far outnumbered Buyers. The 7 month mostly flat period is over. Good news: Twice before the market found support in this area (Chart 0008).

SHORT TERM (Days ): 28Aug15 - Chart 0001 shows the S&P 500 bounced very close to the low it registered last October. Chart 0002 shows Large Caps continue well below the 200 Day Moving Average. however the MACD Histogram is showing improvement.
MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 28Aug15 - The Bullish % Charts (9300 to 9470) are even weaker. Although this week was up, the Weekly S&P 500 Chart (0006), shows Large Caps turning BEARISH
LONG TERM (Months): 28Aug15 - August was anything but dull! The S&P 500 Monthly Chart (0007) shows Large Caps have stopped rising and have started to 'droop'.

Non-Leveraged ETFs whose SCTR scores are above 70 are Rated because these ETFs have consistently moved higher (been Winners). Note that Ratings are also provided for Leveraged ETFs
but exercise extreme caution with these because they are frequently subject to very large moves and may be based on very poorly performing underlying markets.

Please Follow and Please Vote daily

Less

0000 Guesswork Gone- Winners/Losers Summary Updates as of 28Aug15

Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much!
I never Buy any ETF whose SCTR is below 70 and especially avoid like the plague any ETF whose SCTR is below 30. As a general rule, I rate only those ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 15)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 22)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 36)

6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 44)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 45)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 45)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 46)

Please help by Following and Voting. Thanks very much!

0000.1 - Guesswork Gone - Methodology -

Please Follow and please Vote.

ETFs are rated from Weakest to Strongest based upon whether they are in a Trend and the strength of that Trend.

ETFs are considered trendless if their ADX Line is below 20 and are trending if their ADX Line is 20 or above and rising.
=============================================================================
Bull shares that are rising are given even numbers. Bull shares that are falling are given odd numbers.

BULL

===================== RISING ==== FALLING

STRONGEST BULL ======= 8 ======== 7
======================= 6 ======== 5
======================= 4 ======== 3
WEAKEST BULL ========= 2 ======== 1
===============================================================================
Bear shares that are falling are given even numbers. Bear shares that are rising are given odd numbers.

BEAR

==================== FALLING ===== RISING

MOST BEARISH ======== -8 ========= -7
===================== -6 ========= -5
===================== -4 ========= -3
LEAST BEARISH ======= -2 ========= -1


Thanks very much to Herb for contributing the above!

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Bounce Gaining Traction- Turning Up (2) 28Aug15

0001 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Yr Day - Please Follow and please Vote. Thanks very much!
28Aug15 - The market briefly hit the Lows of last October before recovering the last three days of the week. Support was signaled by an RSI(14) which reached Oversold. MACD, TSI, and TRIX and ROC registered very low readings not seen for quite some time but have all reversed course.
21Aug15 - The seven month Large Cap rolling consolidation ended; the market is now in CORRECTION territory: Further loss of Momentum shown by indicators MACD, TSI, TRIX. Possible support in this area. RSI(14) reached Oversold.

Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

From Bob: 'While I have traded for years using the discipline of charts, your site has added greater precision and greater relevance to my trading process..
I am really indebted to you and very much appreciate the free service you provide.'

Please 'Follow' and please 'Vote'. Feedback is welcome. Thank you!

0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day Med. Term: BEARISH- Short Term: Turning Up (2) 28Aug15

0002 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Mo Day - Close Look - Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much!
28Aug15 - Flash crash on Monday followed by recovery toward end of week. Indicators rising (MACD Histogram) and suggest prospects of a brighter future.
21Aug15 - Party is Over for Bulls. Volume heavy, Indicators BEARISH: The Intermediate Trend is BEARISH as is MACD. The S&P 500 50 Day Moving Average is far below the 200 Day Moving Average.

Brent wrote:
'I really appreciate your charts. Clear, concise, and diverse. A person does not need any more to make profitable investment decisions.'

Thanks for your support. Please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE' every day. Thanks very much!

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- MACD: Improving- Turning Up (2) 28Aug15

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day
28Aug15 - Indicators have all recorded large dips but are now improving. The MACD was strongly Bearish but it is now rising. RSI(14) has risen from Oversold as have Stochastics. ROC and FORCE reflect violent decline but are now rising. As suggested last week, 'the drop was so steep and far that the market may have or will soon wash out'.
21Aug15 - The MACD, looks strongly Bearish. The market is no longer in a Trading Range. RSI(14) Oversold. Stochastics Oversold. ROC and FORCE show strength of drop. The good news is that the drop was so steep and far that the market may have or will soon 'wash out'.

Wes wrote:
'Great simple tech. indicators..heck yah you got my vote....Thanks for the hard work..'

Thank you for 'Following' and 'Voting' daily. If you have a question, comment, or suggestion, please email.

0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Indicators: OVERSOLD- Turning Up (2) 28Aug15

0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Mo Day - Support Zones
28Aug15 - The Trading Range ended last Monday with frantic sellers bailing out. Buyers returned as Oversold signals were flashed by RSI, StochRSI and Stochastics. The MACD is improving and suggests better times in the immediate future.

Note: Being 'Overbought' implies prices have risen quickly while 'Oversold' implies prices have fallen quickly.

DeWayne wrote: 'I am impressed with your charts. The trend and momentum indicators that you use are very clear.'

Please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE' daily. Thanks very much!

0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day 1 Hr- Above CHANDLR (BULL)- Turning Up (2) 28Aug15

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
24Aug15 - Market looking Oversold -
07Aug15 - Bear: Strong (-4): The S&P 500 is below the CHANDLR

Mike wrote:
'I really like your straight forward charts and the indicators that you use. Also , how you describe on what to expect from the speed & movement of the different indicators.'

StockCharts Members please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE' each and every day. Thanks very much!

0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Week- Medium Term- Bullish Hammer- Turning Down (-2) 28Aug15

0006 What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?
28Aug15 - Medium Term (Weekly): Although the S&P 500 (Large Cap) fell off a cliff at the beginning of the week, it came back toward the end of the week and closed Up.
Bullish: The weekly activity formed a Bullish Hammer.
Bearish: The 'Medium Term' Trend turned Bearish (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is below the 34 Week EMA)
Bearish: Indicators MACD, PPO, TRIX, and TSI are all tracing Bearish patterns.

James wrote:
'I cannot begin to thank you enough for sharing your work. I've been trading for four years. Most of my understanding of technical analysis has come from books and Stockcharts.com. About a month ago I began to realize your work and your uncanny ability to assess market direction.
It is your site and commentary that has taken me to a different level of understanding how to trade. Your organizational skills and selection of indicators have really help me understand how to time the market.'

Please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE'. Thanks very much!

0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Month- Long Term- Turning Down (-2) 28Aug15

0007 - What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index
28Aug15 - The Long Term direction of the S&P 500 has taken on a Bearish tone. The Bearish signal given by the Price Momentum Oscillator deepened.
August 2015 is the worst month in years for the market. The last week severe damage was initially inflicted but very possibly this will mark the bottom.
21Aug15 - The Long Term direction of the S&P 500 has taken on a more Bearish tone. The Bearish signal given by the Price Momentum Oscillator deepened.
The good news is that the market looks Oversold and twice before support was found in this area.

From a reader: 'Great job -your charts help me a lot.
thank you'

Please 'FOLLOW' and 'VOTE' daily. Thanks very much!

0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Chart- Signs Improving- Turning Up (2) 28Aug15

0008 - Two year Chart of the S&P 500 (the market).
28Aug15 - There has been a convincing bounce. Indicators MACD and KST have bottomed and are now moving in a positive direction.
21Aug15 - The 7 month mostly flat period ended abruptly. Good news: Twice before the market found support in this area.

From a reader: 'I love your work . Your charts help me a lot to understand the market direction. I like the
comments on the charts. Thank you'

Please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE'. Thanks very much!

This information is presented for education purposes only. StockCharts.com is not responsible for any comments, advice, or annotations presented on this page. Please review our Terms of Use for more details.