Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 309 Votes: 248 Years Member: 9 Last Update: 6 July 2015, 12:41 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

04Jul15 - Happy Independence Day!!! It looks as though the S&P 500 Large Caps may be tracing a new a new course (see Chart 0001). Double digit annual market gains look unlikely this year, in fact this year the market may struggle just to stay positive.
26Jun15 - A cautionary tale: On Chart 0001, the S&P 500 is below the Lower Trend Line for the 3rd time. The ADX(14) is below 20 signaling that the S&P 500 isn't trending but indicators point down. It is impossible to know whether the market is in an Extended Consolidation that will end well or is the next move going to be a long anticipated but never realized 10% Correction.

SHORT TERM (Days ): 02Jul15 - Chart 0001 shows that the S&P 500 to be well below the 2 Year Lower Trend Line. On Chart 0002 one can see that it did not drop below the 200 day Moving Average but that it is only 20 points above it.
MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 02Jul15 - On Chart 0026, the Weekly Volume Momentum Oscillator is mildly negative while the Weekly S&P 500 Chart (0006), shows signals given by both MACD and PPO to be somewhat Bearish
LONG TERM (Months): 02Jul15 - Although the S&P 500 Monthly Chart (0007) reflects the weakness of the first 6 months of the year, the market does not (so far) appear to be in trouble.

Non-Leveraged ETFs whose SCTR scores are above 70 are Rated because these ETFs have consistently moved higher (been Winners). Note that Ratings are also provided for Leveraged ETFs
but exercise extreme caution with these because they are frequently subject to very large moves and may be based on very poorly performing underlying markets.

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Less

0000 Guesswork Gone- Winners/Losers Summary Updates as of 02Jul15

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I never Buy any ETF whose SCTR is below 70 and especially avoid like the plague any ETF whose SCTR is below 30. As a general rule, I rate only those ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 13)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 19)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 23)
5000 - 5999 Day Trade - Intraday Charts. (Page 28)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 38)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 39)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 40)

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0000.1 - Guesswork Gone - Methodology -

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ETFs are rated from Weakest to Strongest based upon whether they are in a Trend and the strength of that Trend.

ETFs are considered trendless if their ADX Line is below 20 and are trending if their ADX Line is 20 or above and rising.
=============================================================================
Bull shares that are rising are given even numbers. Bull shares that are falling are given odd numbers.

BULL

===================== RISING ==== FALLING

STRONGEST BULL ======= 8 ======== 7
======================= 6 ======== 5
======================= 4 ======== 3
WEAKEST BULL ========= 2 ======== 1
===============================================================================
Bear shares that are falling are given even numbers. Bear shares that are rising are given odd numbers.

BEAR

==================== FALLING ===== RISING

MOST BEARISH ======== -8 ========= -7
===================== -6 ========= -5
===================== -4 ========= -3
LEAST BEARISH ======= -2 ========= -1


Thanks very much to Herb for contributing the above!

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Well Below Lower 2 Yr Trendline- Bear: Strong (-4) 02Jul15

0001 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Yr Day - Please Follow and please Vote. Thanks very much!
02Jul15 - It looks as though the S&P 500 Large Caps have embarked on a new course. Double digit annual gains look to be in the past.
This year the market may struggle just to stay positive.
26Jun15 - A cautionary tale: The S&P 500 Large Caps are below the Lower Trend Line for the 3rd time. The ADX(14) is below 20 signaling that the Large Caps aren't trending but indicators point down. It is impossible to know whether the Large Caps are in an Extended Consolidation that will end well or will the next move be a long anticipated but never realized 10% Correction.

Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day- Intermed. Term: Bearish- Short Term: Bear: Strong (-4) 02Jul15

0002 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Mo Day - Close Look - Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much!
02Jul15 - Bearish: The Intermediate Trend continues to be Bearish.
Bearish: The OBV ( On Balance Volume) fell from the short duration upward channel it was in and is back in the downward channel it had been following.
Per ADX(14), the S&P 500 is in a (weak) downward trend.

26Jun15 - The Intermediate Trend crossed back to Bullish however On Balance Volume fell below its channel and the MACD is fading suggesting falling prices ahead.
Per ADX(14), the S&P 500 is not trending.

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0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Well Below 100 Day Moving Ave- Bear: Strong (-4) 02Jul15

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day
02Jul15 -S&P 500 prices fell sharply again this week thanks to a swoon on Monday but then came back some.
Bearish signs: RSI(5) and RSI(14) continue below 50. The ADX(14) signals that a weak downward Trend may be developing.
Bullish: The Stochastics are rising from Oversold. The MACD Histogram fell steeply but it is no longer growing weaker.
26Jun15 -S&P 500 prices fell sharply 2 days but only fell slightly on Friday. Bearish signs: RSI fell below 50. The Stochastics are pointing down. The MACD is weakening.
Note that once again the ADX(14) signals no Trend.

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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Moving Up from Oversold- Bear: Strong (-4) 02Jul15

0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Mo Day - Support Zones
02Jul15 - The ADX(14) shows the S&P 500 to have a very weak trend. The Bollinger Band Width became larger which reflects the relatively large drop in prices Monday. The S&P 500 is edging up from Oversold territory per the RSI(5), the Stochastics and StochRSI.

Note: Being 'Overbought' implies prices have risen quickly while 'Oversold' implies prices have fallen quickly.

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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day 1 Hr- Slightly Above CHANDLR (Neutral)- Bear: Strong (-4) 02Jul15

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
10Jun15 - 10 Day Chart of the S&P 500 - Bullish: S&P 500 is above the CHANDLR

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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Week- Medium Term- Edging Down (-1) 02Jul15

0006 What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?
02Jul15 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 (Large Cap) market lost more ground and fell from the strong Resistance Zone.
Bullish: The 'Medium Term' Trend continues Bullish (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) continues above the 34 Week EMA)
Bearish: Indicators MACD, PPO, TRIX, and TSI are tracing steeper Bearish patterns. The BBW (Bollinger Band Width) has become even more narrow. A narrow BBW often occurs toward the end of a sideways period. Finally ADX(14) at 13.31 shows the S&P 500 continues trendless.

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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Mo- Long Term- Neutral (0) 02Jul15

0007 - What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index
02Jul15 - The Long Term direction of the S&P 500 looks flat. The Bearish signal given by the Price Momentum Oscillator is cause for concern but so far at least there has been no swoon.
The Bollinger band Width is below 20 which reflects a lack of volatility which is a sign that the market is in relatively good health.

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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Year Chart- Short Term Trend- Bear: Strong (-4) 02Jul15

0008 - Two year Chart of the S&P 500 (the market).
05Jun15 - The S&P 500 has moved below the lower line of the Pennant pattern it has been within since March. Trend Indicators are beginning to trace less shallow patterns, consistent with a falling market. Ominously the ADX(14) is growing stronger that suggests the downward pattern may be becoming a Trend

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