Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 312 Votes: 176 Years Member: 9 Last Update: 7 October 2015, 13:53 Categories: Trend Analysis
Swing Trading

05Oct15 - Numerous major ETFs are turning Bullish as evidenced by MACD Bullish crossovers.
02Oct15 - 4rth successive Up Day- Many ETFs earned a 'Turning Up' rating- Indicators are turning Up- Rally appears to have legs. Fly in the Ointment: Nearing Resistance
30Sep15 - The S&P 500 (and the market) appears to be bouncing off Support (see Chart 0001). Please Follow and Please Vote.
29Sep15 - NYSE Bullish Percent (Chart 9350) has been in full retreat and its descent may not yet be over.

SHORT TERM (Days ): 02Oct15 - Generally improving tone of the global market. Europe, Emerging market, as well as U.S reflect Buyers a bit more confident.
MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 02Oct15 - The S&P 500 Weekly Chart of the Large Caps (0006) show evidence of a bounce off Support suggesting that the worst may be over.
LONG TERM (Months): 02Oct15 - Based on a good start, October may turn things around, however, the Bullish Percent Charts (starting at 9300) remain quite weak.

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0000 Guesswork Gone- Winners/Losers Summary as of 02Oct15

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I never Buy any ETF whose SCTR is below 70 and especially avoid like the plague any ETF whose SCTR is below 30. As a general rule, I try to rate only those ETFs
whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70) & whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 15)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 22)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 37)

6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 44)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 45)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 45)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 46)

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0000.1 - Guesswork Gone - Methodology -

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ETFs are rated from Weakest to Strongest based upon whether they are in a Trend and the strength of that Trend.

ETFs are considered trendless if their ADX Line is below 20 and are trending if their ADX Line is 20 or above and rising.
Bull shares that are rising are given even numbers. Bull shares that are falling are given odd numbers.


===================== RISING ==== FALLING

STRONGEST BULL ======= 8 ======== 7
======================= 6 ======== 5
======================= 4 ======== 3
WEAKEST BULL ========= 2 ======== 1
Bear shares that are falling are given even numbers. Bear shares that are rising are given odd numbers.


==================== FALLING ===== RISING

MOST BEARISH ======== -8 ========= -7
===================== -6 ========= -5
===================== -4 ========= -3
LEAST BEARISH ======= -2 ========= -1

Thanks very much to Herb for contributing the above!

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Indicators Bullish- Bull: Strong (4) 07Oct15

0001 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Yr Day - Please Follow and please Vote. Thanks very much!
30Sep15 - Ending September the market appears to be bouncing off Support
25Sep15 - There has been a pronounced drop in prices (six of the last seven trading days were Down) but the week ended on a quiet note (Down -0.05%). Momentum Indicators are weakening and Bearish crossovers appear likely soon.
24Sep15 - TSI has crossed to Bearish; Slow Stochastics are approaching Oversold.

Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day Med. Term: Bearish- Short Term: Bull: Strong (4) 07Oct15

0002 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Mo Day - Close Look - Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much!
02Oct15 - A test of Support followed by a turnaround argues for further improvement going forward. MACD turned Bullish and On Balance Volume is moving higher. Moving now into a Resistance region.
25Sep15 - The ADX(14) has been dropping suggesting a weakening Trend. Very early to be certain but this market may be moving into another relatively flat period with a ceiling around 2000 and a floor around 1900.

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0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- MACD Bullish- Bull: Strong (4) 07Oct15

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day
02Oct15 - Four successive Up days and signs of reversal abound. The strong turnaround on Friday suggests Buyers are coming back. Indicators are moving higher: MACD turned Bullish, Stochastics and RSI look promising.
25Sep15 - Six out of the last seven days have been Down and signs of reversal are few. The scant loss on Friday (-0.05%) may be of some comfort suggesting the rate of decline is slowing. Somewhat surprisingly, the Slow STO edged higher from Oversold.

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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- RSI, Stoch, MACD => Bullish- Bull: Strong (4) 07Oct15

0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Mo Day - Support Zones
02Oct15 - Four successive Up days have changed the direction of Indicators; MACD has turned Bullish. RSI, StochRSI, and Stochastics are out of Oversold territory and improving.

Note: Being 'Overbought' implies prices have risen quickly while 'Oversold' implies prices have fallen quickly.

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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day Hourly- Above CHANDLR (Bullish)- Bull: Strong (4) 07Oct15

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
04Sep15 - Lower Tops and somewhat Higher Bottoms marked the last several days. A Triangular pattern may be taking shape.
24Aug15 - Market looking Oversold -
07Aug15 - Bear: Strong (-4): The S&P 500 is below the CHANDLR

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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Week- Medium Term- Bear: Weakest (-3) 02Oct15

0006 What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?
02Oct15 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 (Large Cap) closed the week with a 1.04% gain. Note that the S&P 500 entered a zone of resistance.
The 'Medium Term' Trend remains Bearish (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is below the 34 Week EMA) as do Indicators MACD, PPO, TRIX, and TSI but Histograms have begun to climb which reflects the weekly gain.

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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Month- Long Term- Turning Down (-2) 02Oct15

0007 - What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index
02Oct15 - It's early but October is starting out strong, and although September showed a loss, it had a higher Low than August.
01Oct15 - September recorded a loss of more than 2.5%. Unless the last quarter is very good, 2015 will be a losing year.
25Sep15 - With only 3 trading days left in the month it seems all but certain that September will sustain a loss, marking the 3rd monthly loss out of the last four months and increasing the likelihood that 2015 will be a losing year.

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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Chart- Moving Above Resistance- Bull: Strong (4) 07Oct15

0008 - Two year Chart of the S&P 500 (the market).
25Sep15 - The S&P 500 tried to rally on the 25th but by the end of the day it failed to sustain a gain. S&P 500 is 200 points down from its High and 100 points off the recent peak.
18Sep15 - The area of Resistance shown in the Chart appeared to be in the rear view mirror until a pessimistic assessment by the Fed of markets abroad caused the nascent rally to take an abrupt about face.

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