Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!
0000 Guesswork Gone- Winners/Losers Summary Updates as of 31Jul15
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I never Buy any ETF whose SCTR is below 70 and especially avoid like the plague any ETF whose SCTR is below 30. As a general rule, I rate only those ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.
Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 14)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 22)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 29)
5000 - 5999 Day Trade - Intraday Charts. (Page 34)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 44)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 45)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 45)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 46)
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0000.1 - Guesswork Gone - Methodology -
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ETFs are rated from Weakest to Strongest based upon whether they are in a Trend and the strength of that Trend.
ETFs are considered trendless if their ADX Line is below 20 and are trending if their ADX Line is 20 or above and rising.
Bull shares that are rising are given even numbers. Bull shares that are falling are given odd numbers.
===================== RISING ==== FALLING
STRONGEST BULL ======= 8 ======== 7
======================= 6 ======== 5
======================= 4 ======== 3
WEAKEST BULL ========= 2 ======== 1
Bear shares that are falling are given even numbers. Bear shares that are rising are given odd numbers.
==================== FALLING ===== RISING
MOST BEARISH ======== -8 ========= -7
===================== -6 ========= -5
===================== -4 ========= -3
LEAST BEARISH ======= -2 ========= -1
Thanks very much to Herb for contributing the above!
0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Well Below Lower 2 Yr Trendline- Edging Down (-1) 03Aug15
0001 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Yr Day - Please Follow and please Vote. Thanks very much!
31Jul15 - Seven months into the year and the Large Caps have possibly been in a rolling correction or consolidation. The energy sector has crashed, although other sectors have held up and kept the Large Caps more or less flat.
Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.
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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day Intermed. Term: Mildly Bullish- Short Term: Edging Down (-1) 03Aug15
0002 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Mo Day - Close Look - Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much!
27Jul15 - Bearish: Intermediate Trend crossover - Bearish: Short Term MACD crossover,
24Jul15 - The S&P 500 appears to be in free fall, with Friday the worst day of a bad week. Last week's rosy picture is but a memory.
17Jul15 - Bullish: The Intermediate Trend has crossed to Bullish and MACD has crossed to Bullish
10Jul15 - Bearish: The Intermediate Trend continues to be Bearish. Bullish: The OBV (On Balance Volume) poked its head above the short duration downward channel. Per ADX(14), the S&P 500 is in a Downward Trend.
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0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- MACD Bearish Crossover Likely- Edging Down (-1) 03Aug15
0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day
31Jul15 - Summary: Weakly Bullish: MACD and RSI readings are Bullish but barely so, however the Stochastics have not been deterred and look Bullish.
24Jul15 - Some weaker than expected earnings disappointed investors. Indicators are bearish or turning so.
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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Nearing 100 Day MA- Edging Down (-1) 03Aug15
0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Mo Day - Support Zones
31Jul15 - The Large Caps recovered a bit but ended the week on a sour note. MACD is Bullish, albeit only weakly. RSI(5) and RSI(14) are neutral.
24Jul15 - Earnings turned South and so did the market. Indicators have all started to point down.
Note: Being 'Overbought' implies prices have risen quickly while 'Oversold' implies prices have fallen quickly.
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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day 1 Hr- Just Above CHANDLR (Neutral)- Edging Down (-1) 03Aug15
0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
31Jul15 - 10 Day Chart of the S&P 500 - Turning Up (2): The S&P 500 is above the CHANDLR
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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Week- Medium Term- Flat- Neutral (0) 31Jul15
0006 What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?
31Jul15 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 (Large Cap) market is in a region of Strong Resistance and in a range bound pattern .
Bullish: The 'Medium Term' Trend continues Bullish (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) continues above the 34 Week EMA
Bearish: Indicators MACD, PPO, TRIX, and TSI continue to trace Bearish patterns, albeit slightly less so.
The BBW (Bollinger Band Width) is even more narrow than it was. A narrow BBW often occurs during a sideways period.
ADX(14) at 13.39 vs 13.54 last week suggests the S&P 500 is technically Trendless.
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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Month- Long Term- Flat- Neutral (0) 31Jul15
0007 - What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index
31Jul15 - Notwithstanding a nice gain in July, Long Term the direction of the S&P 500 continues to be flat.
The Bearish signal given by the Price Momentum Oscillator continues, however StochRSI is rising and poised for a Bullish signal.
The Bollinger Band Width remains well below 20 which suggests the market remains in a narrow trading range.
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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Year Chart- Short Term Trend- Edging Down (-1) 03Aug15
0008 - Two year Chart of the S&P 500 (the market).
24Jul15 - The S&P 500 is well below the lower line of the Long Term Trend (Blue) and the Lower Line of the Andrew's Pitchfork (Green).
Indicators MACD, TSI, and TRIX have peaked and are falling toward Bearish crossovers.
ADX(14) is below 20 which suggests that the Market is Trendless.
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