Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 303 Votes: 192 Years Member: 9 Last Update: 27 May 2015, 16:08 Categories: Trend Analysis
Swing Trading

22May15 - Where's the Breadth: Although Large Caps set new records, the Bullish Percent Charts (9300-9460) show only 2 of 17 sectors above the 70% mark.
21May15 - Nice! S&P 500 sets another all time closing record.
21May15 - Divergence between the Large Caps (DIA, SPY) and the Transportation Average, IYT (Chart 1960) is a cause for concern. Until and unless this is resolved, it suggests the upside potential for this market may be limited.
20May15 - Large Cap Market continues to move with a very slow upward bias. Remainder of the market not quite as strong.

Short Term (Swing) Traders take Note: ETFs with high SCTR scores (> 70) have trended higher over time. Over the Short Term they have a higher probability of continuing to increase in price than those with lower scores and are therefore, in general the best ETFs in which to invest.

SHORT TERM (Days ): 22May15 - Charts 0022 thru 0032 show that breadth suffered last week, notwithstanding the new gains for the Large Caps .
MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 22May15 - Chart 0006, the weekly chart of the S&P 500 shows it to have been up for the last three weeks.
LONG TERM (Months): 22May15 - The S&P 500 Monthly (Chart 0007), shows May to be putting in a strong performance.

Non-Leveraged ETFs whose SCTR scores are above 70 are Rated because these ETFs have consistently moved higher (been Winners). Note that Ratings are also provided for Leveraged ETFs
but exercise extreme caution with these because they are frequently subject to very large moves and may be based on very poorly performing underlying markets.

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0000 Guesswork Gone- Winners/Losers Summary as of 22May15

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I never Buy any ETF whose SCTR is below 70 and especially avoid like the plague any ETF whose SCTR is below 30. As a general rule, I rate only those ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 13)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 19)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 23)
5000 - 5999 Day Trade - Intraday Charts. (Page 28)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 38)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 39)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 40)

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0000.1 - Guesswork Gone - Methodology -

ETFs are rated from Weakest to Strongest based largely upon whether they are in a Trend and the strength of that Trend.
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ETFs are considered trendless if their ADX Line is below 20 and are trending if their ADX Line is 20 or above and rising.
Bull shares that are rising are given even numbers. Bull shares that are falling are given odd numbers.


===================== RISING ==== FALLING

STRONGEST BULL ======= 8 ======== 7
======================= 6 ======== 5
======================= 4 ======== 3
WEAKEST BULL ========= 2 ======== 1
Bear shares that are falling are given even numbers. Bear shares that are rising are given odd numbers.


==================== FALLING ===== RISING

MOST BEARISH ======== -8 ========= -7
===================== -6 ========= -5
===================== -4 ========= -3
LEAST BEARISH ======= -2 ========= -1

Thanks very much to Herb for contributing the above!

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Bull: Weakest (3) 22May15

0001 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Yr Day - Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much!
15May15 - New all time Closing High (just barely but it counts). Most Indicators are weakly Bullish. S&P 500 is not yet in a trend; ADX(14) is only 14.33. This reflects the snails pace of the price increase.

Note that the indicators suggest a market that could continue to weaken, but importantly, because the ADX Trend strength indicator signals 'No Trend', the indicators are not of much practical use at the moment.

Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day- Trends: Intermediate-> Bullish- Short-> Bull: Weakes

0002 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Mo Day - Close Look - Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much!
27May15 - Although the drop of yesterday was almost entirely cancelled by strength today, the trend toward falling prices has not yet been reversed..

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0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Bull: Weakest (3) 22May15

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day
08May15 - The ADX(14) is showing signs of life. Market now needs to show some steady progress if this rise in prices is going to be for real
24Apr15 - The duration of the rise in prices is now 3 weeks. Both Full and Slow Stochastics have moved to Overbought and RSI(5) is poised to shortly do so.

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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Bull: Weakest (3) 22May15

0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Mo Day - Support Zones
21Apr15 - The market has been in a wedge pattern which has gotten quite narrow, and therefore it should be resolved very soon.
17Apr15 - Both StochRSI(14) and RSI(5) are now Bearish.

Note: Overbought implies quickly rising prices while Oversold implies quickly falling prices

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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day 1 Hr- Above CHANDLR (Bullish)- Neutral (0) 22May15

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
10Apr15 - 10 Day Chart of the S&P 500 - Bullish insofar as the S&P 500 is above the CHANDLR

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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Week- Medium Term: Turning Up (2) 22May15

0006 What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?
15May15 - Looking at the candlesticks for the last two weeks, for the 2nd straight week the market struggled during the week but closed strong.

'Shorter Term' Trend Indicators MACD, PPO, TRIX, and TSI remain Bearish but in each case, the slope of the trend line is close to horizontal.

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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Mo- Long Term- Bull: Topping (7) 22May15

0007 - What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index

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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Long Term Trend- Bull: Weakest (3) 22May15

0008 - Chart of the S&P 500 (the market) compared to the 2 Year Daily Raff Regression Trend Lines drawn to the mid February peak.
10Apr15 - Market bounced off Lower Trend line. Indicators look better generally, however not yet enough data to show that a trend has been established. Trend Indicator (ADX(14) = 12.38),

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