Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 311 Votes: 218 Years Member: 10 Last Update: 10 February 2016, 16:59 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

05Feb16 - CitiBank: Financial markets are trapped in a 'death spiral' http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/05/investing/oilmageddon-recession-oil-citi/
05Feb16 - Market stumbles (S&P 500 Down -3.10%) but Gold glitters (See Metals starting at 4000)
02Feb16 - When the market looks as though it is 'Cresting' Long Term as it does now, and the Medium Term Trend is Down, Uptrends can be short lived (See Charts 0004 thru 0008).
29Jan16 - After several days of uncertainty, on Friday the market drove strongly higher and as a result a large number of ETFs earned Bull rating (see Chart 0000).
27Jan16 - The market has been on a wild roller coaster ride the last several days putting any Rally attempt very much in jeopardy.
25Jan16 - Confirmation of Rally not there; Friday S&P 500 move Up negated by Monday loss (See Charts 0002, 0005).

SHORT TERM (Days ): 05Feb16 - A brief market Rally ended on Monday (note the Hanging Man). See Chart 0002.
MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 05Feb16 - Chart 0006 shows the S&P 500 had a fairly nasty week and is down -3.10%. Indicators are Bearish and Support is being tested.
LONG TERM (Months): 05Feb16 - The S&P 500 is off another 3.10% in February (Chart 0007) following a January loss of -5.07%. Exercise extreme caution.

Less

0000 - Ratings Summary as of 05Feb16

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I never Buy any ETF whose SCTR is below 70 and especially avoid like the plague any ETF whose SCTR is below 30. As a general rule, I try to rate only those ETFs
whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70) & whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 15)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 22)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 37)

6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 44)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 45)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 45)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 46)

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0000.1 - Methodology -

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ETFs are considered without a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is below 20 and are in a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is 20 or above.
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0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Momentum Indicators Cresting- Turning Down (-2) 08Feb16

0001 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Years Daily - Please cast your Votes of Support. Thanks very much!
05Feb16 - The S&P 500 is once again in Support and appears to be in danger of falling further. RSI, Slow Stochastics, and the ROC (Rate of Change) are falling and Momentum Indicators (MACD(20,35,10), TSI, and TRIX) are no longer improving.

29Jan16 - The S&P 500 is out of Support and appears to be set to rise further. RSI, Slow Stochastics, and the ROC (Rate of Change) are Bullish and Momentum Indicators (MACD(20,35,10), TSI, and TRIX) are improving and almost Bullish.

22Jan16 - With RSI(14) rising the S&P 500 looks as though it will bounce nicely out of Support. The Momentum Indicators (MACD, TSI, TRIX) have yet to react but the Slow Stochastic and the ROC (Rate of Change) are beginning to rise. A Bullish sign: The BB Width (Bollinger Band Width) signals that the end of the current Trend is close.

20Jan16 @ 2:10 PM - The S&P 500 (and the Market) dipped as low as the April 2015 Low and may have found some support.

15Jan16 - The S&P 500 is now in a strong area of Support which extends as low as ~1860. The S&P 500 went as low as 1857 on Friday, 15 January, so that could easily mark an Interday Bottom. The fact that the market managed to close as high as it did at 1880 is a good sign.

Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day- Turning Down (-2) 08Feb16

0002 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Months Daily - Thanks very much for your Votes and for your support!
05Feb16 - Looking at only the last two months, it is easy to spot how flat the S&P 500 actually has been for the last 15 days. The actual movement has been mostly sideways!
A 'Hanging Man' Japanese Candlestick marked the end of (very brief) Rally on Monday (01Feb).
29Jan16 - The Bullish Hammer on the 20th of January marked the end of a long slide. The market rose and then consolidated for 5 days until the strong rise on the 29th. Short Term the technical picture looks much improved.
22Jan16 - A Hammer is a bullish reversal pattern that forms after a decline. A Hammer can be seen on the 20th with a lower shadow of only 1812. Two Up days followed and have given the Short Term outlook a more Bullish tone. OBV (On Balance Volume) is beginning to rise, and the Slow Stochastics are also. However follow through is required.
15Jan16 - Exercise caution: The Medium Term Trend is very firmly Bearish and the ADX(14) which reads more than 25 confirms that the Downward Trend is well established and strong.
08Jan16 - The S&P 500 registered its worst week in a long time, closing the week almost 6% lower. On Balance Volume (OBV) after a few flat days looks as though it is once again falling. Finally the Medium Term Trend, which flirted at becoming Bullish, is now firmly Bearish.

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0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- RSI: Falling- Turning Down (-2) 08Feb16

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day. Thanks very much for your Votes!
05Feb16 - A brief market Rally ended on Monday (note the Hanging Man) and a quite poor performance on Friday put the S&P 500 down 3.10% for the week. RSI(14) is falling and it is below 50 and Bearish at 40.57. The Stochastics, both Full and Slow, are dropping and the MACD(12,26,9) looks like it is Topping.
29Jan16 - The S&P 500 (proxy for the market) oscillated all week but a very strong surge on Friday greatly improved the technical picture. RSI(14) is rising although it is not quite Bullish at 49.34. The Stochastics, both Full and Slow, look Bullish and the MACD(12,26,9) has just crossed Bullish.
22Jan16 - The S&P 500 (proxy for the market) appears to have held Support following a strong performance at the end of the week. RSI(14) is rising although it is not yet above 50 (Bullish). The Stochastics, both Full and Slow, are rising and the MACD is just beginning to rise.
15Jan16 - Time to test the temperature of the water? Following a rapid 2.5 week elevator descent, the S&P 500 (proxy for the market) is testing Support. Both RSI(5) and RSI(14) appear to have bottomed from Oversold, however the Stochastics, which aren't as sensitive, don't look quite as sanguine.

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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- RSI: Falling- Turning Down (-2) 08Feb16

0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Month Daily. Thanks everyone for your Votes.
05Feb16 - The S&P 500 is back to where it was two weeks ago.
Signals: MACD(12,26,9) looks as though it is Topping. RSI(14), Slow Stochastics, StochRSI ROC, FORCE, and the Chaikin Oscillator are dropping and moving toward Oversoldt.
29Jan16 - Optimistic Signals: MACD(12,26,9) is Bullish. RSI(14), Slow Stochastics, StochRSI, ROC, FORCE, and the Chaikin Oscillator signals are all Bullish.
22Jan16 - More Optimistic Signals: MACD is rising, so too are RSI(14), Slow Stochastics, StochRSI, and Chaikin Oscillator.
15Jan16 - Optimistic Signals: MACD is about as low as it was last August; RSI(5) looks as though it has begun to rise; Slow Stochastics are above 20; StochRSI has slightly recovered.

Note: Being 'Overbought' implies prices have risen quickly while 'Oversold' implies prices have fallen quickly.

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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day Hrly- Early Signs: Below CHANDLR- Bearish 05Feb16

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
29Jan16 - The S&P 500 is well above CHANDLR and so Short Term the market appears poised to rise.
25Jan16 - Close Today matches Open on Friday. Gain on Friday completely wiped out by loss today.
22Jan16 - Above CHANDLR: A bullish sign.
08Jan16 - Bearish: Continuing to trade below CHANDLR. Not one hour in the last five days was the S&P 500 above the CHANDLR
31Dec15 - Bearish: Well below CHANDLR.

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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Wk- Medium Term: Turning Down (-2) 08Feb16

0006 Question: What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index? Please cast your Votes. Many Thanks!
05Feb16 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 fell 3.10% this week and is back in Support at 1880. Indicator RSI(14) is Falling and it's now below 50 (Bearish). Momentum Indicators MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX, are Bearish and not improving.
The 'Medium Term' Trend continues BEARISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is BELOW the 34 Week EMA).

29Jan16 - Medium Term (Weekly): This week the S&P 500 rose 1.75%, Support around 1880 (Intraday Low of 1820) appears to have held: Indicator RSI(14) is Rising although it continues to be below 50. Momentum Indicators MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX, however, remain technically Bearish, although they are improving.
The 'Medium Term' Trend continues BEARISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is BELOW the 34 Week EMA).

22Jan16 - Medium Term (Weekly): This week the S&P 500 rose 1.41%, Too early to be sure but Support around 1880 (Intraday Low of 1820) appears to have held: Indicator RSI(14) is Rising although it continues to be below 50. Momentum Indicators MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX, however, have not yet reacted.
The 'Medium Term' Trend continues to look BEARISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is BELOW the 34 Week EMA).

15Jan16 - Medium Term (Weekly): This week the S&P 500 fell -2.17%, and is now testing Support around 1880. Indicator RSI(14) is Falling and is below 50 (Bearish). Momentum Indicators MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX have all crossed Bearish. In addition ADX(14) suggests the downward Trend is growing in strength.
The 'Medium Term' Trend continues to look BEARISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is BELOW the 34 Week EMA).

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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Mnth- StochRSI Ovrsold- Long Term: Turning Down 05Feb16

0007 - Question: What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index. Thanks for your Votes!
05Feb16 - The S&P 500 lost -5.07% in January and February seems to be following suite, already down an additional -3.10%. Exercise extreme caution insofar as the PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) suggests that Long Term the market will probably fall further.
29Jan16 - The S&P 500 closed January down -5.07%. It appears as though the Support area has held, however the PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) continues to suggest that Long Term the Bull market will probably continue to struggle.
Bottom Line: Don't be afraid to Sell: Take profits early.
29Jan16 - The S&P 500 closed the month of January with a fairly steep loss of -5.07%. This was a big improvement over the -8.00% it was down on 15 January.
22Jan16 - The S&P 500 is now down -6.70% which is an improvement over the -8.00% it was down at the end of last week. It looks as though the Support area around 1880 (Intraday only 1820) has held.
15Jan16 - The S&P 500 has started 2016 with a loss of -8.00% and is testing the Support area around 1880.
14Jan16 11:45 AM - This morning the S&P 500 dropped briefly to 1878. Both StochRSI and Williams % have reached Oversold readings so perhaps the worst is over.

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0007.5 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 30 Yrs Mnthly- Long Term DECLINE per PMO: Exercise Caution 05Feb16

0007.5 - S&P 500 ($SPX) - 30 Years Monthly
29Jan16 - CAUTION: The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has been a reliable guide to Long Term market direction and it is presently signaling that a Long term decline is underway.

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