Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 FollowersHas Been a Top Public ChartList for Over 1 Month Rank: 5 Followers: 319 Votes: 196 Years Member: 11 Last Update: 3 December 2016, 15:08 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

02Dec16 - Market appears to be in a Topping or Consolidation phase with many ETFs in the grip of falling prices.

26Nov16 - Ample headroom remains for continued gains. NEW: Chart 0000.3 summarizes the Market Strength Assessment Charts (0300 - 0440)

24Nov16 - Happy Thanksgiving!

21Nov16 - New All-Time-High record set by S&P 500.

18Nov16 - Bold Prediction: Plenty of headroom left per Market Strength Assessment Charts (0300 - 0440) suggests S&P 500 (and US Market) likely to test/set new All-Time-Highs.

11Nov16 - Turnaround in Small and Mid Cap ETFs continues which generally bodes well for the market. Meanwhile most International ETFs are plunging!

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SHORT TERM (Days ): 02Dec16 - Chart 0000.3: The summary of the Market Strength Assessment Charts (0300 - 0440) show they are a mixed bag.

MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 02Dec16 - Chart 0006: Following 3 consecutive Up weeks, this week the price of the S&P 500 fell 0.97%.

LONG TERM (Months): 01Dec16 - Chart 0007: August, September, and October were each slightly lower, however November reversed the trend and closed up a healthy 3.42% .

Thanks very much for your support (Follows and Votes).

Less

0000.1 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary - 02Dec16 Updates Complete

02Dec16 - Rise in prices has slowed:

(1) Fewer ETFs are rated Bull (4) or rated Turning Up (2).
(2) A large number of ETFs are rated Neutral (0).
(3) More ETFs are rated Turning Down (-2) or rated Bear (-4).

25Nov16 - General Bull Market rise in prices has continued:

(1) An increased number of (US) ETFs are rated Bull.
(2) Rate of price increase has slowed even as new All-Time-High records are set.
(3) Some Emerging Market ETFs are looking better.

18Nov16 - General rise in prices is slowing:

(1) Many (US) ETFs are rated Bull.
(2) A large number of ETFs appear to be Topping insofar as they have started to move lower or horizontally.
(3) A fairly large number of International ETFs are rated Bear.

Thanks for your support (Following my Chart List and Voting for it).

0000.2 - Methodology - Rules of Engagement

0000.1 - Methodology - Rules of Engagement

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Note: As a general rule, I personally invest only in ETFs that are (1) 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and (2) liquid (Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000).

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
0100 - 0190 Weekly Sector Charts (Page 3)
0200 - 0440 Market Strength Assessment (Page 4)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 15)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 21)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 47)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 47)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 47)

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Thanks very much for Follows and Votes!

0000.3 - Market Strength Assessment Summary - Mixed Bag- 02Dec16

0000.3 - Market Strength Assessment Chart Summary

02Dec16 - Mixed bag:
(1) Some Charts continue to score Plus.
(2) Many are Neutral.
(3) many are Minus.

25Nov16 - General Bull Market rise in prices has continued:
(1) Every one of the Market Strength Assessment Charts are rated Plus (Bullish).
(2) The charts suggest that there is ample headroom for continued gains. Examples: Charts 0330, 0350, 0360, 0370, and 0410

Thanks for your support (Following my Chart List and Voting for it).

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- RSI: Down- Topping Market as of 02Dec16

0001 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Month Daily. Please vote. Thanks very much for your support!

30Nov16 - The S&P 500 is encountering some headwinds.
(1) Neutral: RSI(14) ticked just over 70 (Overbought) but fell below 70 and flattened out.
(2) Plus: Indicators MACD, TRIX, PMO, and SLOPE continue Bullish.
(3) Neutral: Full Stochastics are Overbought but Slow Stochastics has fallen below Overbought .
(4) Neutral: ROC is above 0 but flat.
(5) Neutral: Chaikin Oscillator is above 0 but falling.
(6) Plus: MFI remains above 80 (Overbought).
(7) Plus: The Medium Term Trend continues Bullish.

23Nov16 - The S&P 500 has powered above the top (~2193) of the long standing Trading Range.
(1) Neutral: RSI(14) is not far below 70 (Overbought) .
(2) Plus: Indicators MACD, TRIX, PMO, and SLOPE continue Bullish.
(3) Plus: Both Full and Slow Stochastics are Overbought.
(4) Minus: ROC is above 0 but is falling.
(5) Plus: Chaikin Oscillator is above 0.
(6) Neutral: MFI has made a bee line to 80 (Overbought).
(7) Plus: The Medium Term Trend continues Bullish.

18Nov16 - The S&P 500 (and other broadly based ETFs) is nearing the top of the long standing Trading Range.
(1) RSI(14) is above 50 (Bullish) and slowly drifting higher.
(2) Indicators MACD, TRIX, PMO, and SLOPE crossed Bullish.
(3) ROC and the Chaikin Oscillator are rising and above 0 (Bullish).
(4) The Medium Term Trend crossed Bullish.
(5) Full and Slow Stochastics are Overbought.
(6) MFI bounced from Oversold and is rising.

0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Year Day- RSI: Up- Topping Market as of 02Dec16

0002 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Years Daily - Please continue to cast your Votes of Support. Thanks very much!

01Dec16 - The S&P 500 looks as though it is dropping back toward the long standing Trading Range.
(1) Neutral: RSI EMA(20) remains above 50 (Bullish) but it has leveled off.
(2) Neutral: MACD, TSI, and TRIX continue Bullish but look as though they have peaked.
(3) Plus: ROC EMA(20) and SLOPE EMA(20) both remain above 0.
(4) Minus: Volume weighted MFI has fallen and dropped below Overbought.

23Nov16 - The S&P 500 is above the top of the long standing Trading Range.
(1) Plus: RSI EMA(20) is above 50 (Bullish) and rising.
(2) Plus: MACD, TSI, and TRIX are Bullish.
(3) Plus: Both ROC EMA(20) and SLOPE EMA(20) are above 0 and both are rising.
(4) Minus: Volume weighted MFI has moved in an almost straight line from Oversold to Overbought.

18Nov16 - The S&P 500 is close to the top of the long standing Trading Range.
(1) RSI EMA(20) is above 50 (Bullish) and rising.
(2) MACD, TSI, and TRIX are Bullish.
(3) ROC EMA(20) is above 0 and SLOPE EMA(20) is close to 0; both are rising.
(4) Volume weighted MFI has bounced off Oversold and is rising

11Nov16 - The S&P 500 has clawed back into the long standing Trading Range.
(1) RSI EMA(20) is below 50 (Bearish) but it is rising.
(2) MACD, TSI, and TRIX have crossed Bullish.
(3) ROC EMA(20) and SLOPE EMA(20) continue to be below 0 but both are rising.
(4) MFI which is volume weighted, has bounced off Oversold

Note - Overbought is the same as saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is the same as saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- RSI: Down- Topping Market as of 02Dec16

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day. Thanks very much for Following and for your Votes!

01Dec16 - Bearish clouds may be gathering.
(1) Minus: RSI(14) has dropped from 70 (Overbought).
(2) Minus: MACD(12,26,9) Histogram appears headed for a Bearish signal.
(3) Minus: SLOPE remains above 0 but it has continued to fall.
(4) Neutral: Full Stochastics are barely over 80 (Overbought) but Slow Stochastics have plummeted.
(5) Minus: ROC (Rate of Change) is above 0 (Bullish) but it is close to a Bearish cross.
(6) Plus: S&P 500 Medium Term Trend continues Bullish: EMA(13) is above EMA(34).

23Nov16 - S&P 500 Indicators continue to look Bullish but some Bearish clouds may be gathering.
(1) Minus: RSI(14) is not far from 70 (Overbought) but it appears to have leveled off.
(2) Minus: MACD(12,26,9) is Bullish although MACD Histogram is falling slightly.
(3) Minus: SLOPE is above 0 but it has begun to fall.
(4) Plus: Both Full and Slow Stochastics are above 80 (Overbought).
(5) Minus: ROC (Rate of Change) is above 0 (Bullish) but it is falling.
(6) Plus: S&P 500 Medium Term Trend continues Bullish: EMA(13) is above EMA(34).

18Nov16 - S&P 500 Indicators are Bullish:
(1) RSI(14) is rising and above 50 (Bullish).
(2) MACD(12,26,9) is Bullish.
(3) SLOPE is above 0 and rising.
(4) Both Full and Slow Stochastics are above 80 (Overbought).
(5) ROC (Rate of Change) is Bullish: it's rising and above 0.
(6) S&P 500 Medium Term Trend is Bullish: EMA(13) is above EMA(34).

0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Month Daily- Medium Term Trend: Bullish- 02Dec16

0004 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Months Daily - Thanks very much for your continued support (Votes and Follows).

01Dec16 - Fade: The S&P 500 (the Market) is encountering resistance to higher prices.
(1) Neutral: MACD(12,26,9) Histogram remains above 0 but it is steadily dropping.
(2) Neutral: Slow Stochastics is Overbought but its direction is lower.
(3) Plus: Medium Term Bullish Trend (EMA 13 Day above EMA 34 Day).
(4) Neutral: Trend indicators ADX (7) and ADX(14) are weakening.

23Nov16 - Bull Run: The S&P 500 (the Market) is on a roll.
(1) Plus: MACD(12,26,9) Bullish (Histogram above 0 but flat).
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastics is Overbought.
(3) Plus: Medium Term Bullish Trend (EMA 13 Day above EMA 34 Day).
(4) Plus: Trend Up established per ADX (7) and ADX(14).

18Nov16 - Recovery Continues: The S&P 500 (the Market) is doing well although rate of rise slowing.
(1) MACD(12,26,9) has crossed Bullish (Histogram above 0).
(2) Slow Stochastics is Overbought.
(3) Medium Term Bullish Trend (EMA 13 Day above EMA 34 Day).
(4) Trend Up established per ADX (7) and ADX(14).

11Nov16 - Recovery: The S&P 500 (the Market) is looking stronger.
(1) MACD(12,26,9) has crossed Bullish (Histogram above 0 and rising).
(2) Slow Stochastics from Oversold to Overbought.
(3) Medium Term Bearish Trend possibly over (distance between EMA 13 Day and EMA 34 Day decreasing).
(4) Fly in ointment: Spinning Top on Thursday, followed by loss on Friday.


Please 'FOLLOW' and 'VOTE'. Thanks very much for your support!

0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 10 Day Hourly- Intraday Signs: Under CHANDLR: Bearish- 02Dec16

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days

01Dec16 - Intraday - The price of the S&P 500 is under the Chandelier Exit, suggesting that a Downtrend has begun.

14Oct16 - Chart 5: A strongly rising market that began Thursday morning 13 October, appeared to continue into Friday 14 October, but in a disappointment optimism turned to pessimism as Friday gains eroded and Friday ended up roughly the same place it began.

07Sep16 - The S&P 500 is managing to stay above the CHANDLR indicator.

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FYI: When the market price is above the Chandelier Exit (CHANDLR) it suggests an Uptrend. Conversely, when the market price is under the Chandelier Exit, it suggests a Downtrend.

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Thanks very much for your continued Support! Please don't forget to register your Vote.

0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 3 Years Weekly- Medium Term: RSI: Up- Turning Up- 02Dec16

0006 Question: What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?

02Dec16 - This week the S&P 500 was off 0.97%.
(1) Neutral: RSI(14) is above 50 (Bullish) but it is no longer rising.
(2) Plus: MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX are close to Bullish crosses.
(3) Plus: Full and Slow Stochastics are on the cusp of Overbought.
(4) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA).
(5) Neutral: AROON rose sharply and then went flat.

23Nov16 - So far during this Thanksgiving Holiday shortened week, the S&P 500 is ahead.
(1) Plus: RSI(14) is above 50 (Bullish) and rising.
(2) Plus: MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX climbing toward Bullish crosses.
(3) Plus: Full and Slow Stochastics continue to climb toward Overbought.
(4) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA).
(5) Plus: AROON is rising.

18Nov16 - Following last week's very strong gain of 3.80%, this week the S&P 500 rose a decent 0.81%.
(1) RSI(14) is above 50 (Bullish).
(2) MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX continued to climb toward Bullish crosses.
(3) Full and Slow Stochastics continues their rise from Oversold.
(4) The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA).

11Nov16 - A strong weekly gain of 3.80% laid waste to the case for a Medium Term Trend Down.
(1) - RSI(14) reversed and popped above 50 (Bullish).
(2) - MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX have started to climb toward Bullish crosses.
(3) - Full and Slow Stochastics touched Oversold and bounced.
(4) - The 'Long Term' Trend continues BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA).

Thank you very much for your continued Support.

0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs- Long Term (Monthly): Neutral 02Dec16

0007 - Question: What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index. Thanks for your continued support!

30Nov16 - Following three consecutive Down months November closed Up a very respectable 3.42%.
(1) - Minus: The signal given by PMO(35,20,10) continues narrowly Bearish.
(2) - Plus: Slow Stochastic signal continues Overbought.
(2) - Plus: Williams %R signal continues Overbought.
(3) - Plus: StochRSI signal continues Overbought.

23Nov16 - Following three consecutive Down months and with only four trading days remaining, November will likely close Up.
(1) - Minus: The signal given by PMO(35,20,10) continues narrowly Bearish.
(2) - Plus: Slow Stochastic signal is Overbought.
(2) - Plus: Williams %R signal is Overbought.
(3) - Plus: StochRSI signal is Overbought.

18Nov16 - Following three Down months another strong strong week has November Up 2.62%.
(1) - The signal given off by PMO(35,20,10) continues to be Bearish.
(2) - Williams %R and StochRSI continue to print Overbought.
(3) - Slow Stochastics continues to print Overbought.

11Nov16 - With nine trading days in the books and following a very strong week, November is now Up 1.8%.
(1) - The signal given off by PMO(35,20,10) continues to be Bearish.
(2) - Williams %R remains Overbought; StochRSI popped back to Overbought.
(3) - Slow Stochastics continues Overbought.

Thanks very much for your continued support!

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