Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 316 Votes: 235 Years Member: 8 Last Update: 30 September 2014, 19:18 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

30Sep14 - The market continues to perform the same - Large Caps: like a balloon with a small leak - Small Caps: like a balloon with a more serious leak
26Sep14 - Some indication that 25 September a market bottom was reached: See Charts 0019, 0023, and 0024.
23Sep14 - When the market meanders generally sideways and is without a trend, indicators mislead and must be disregarded.

SHORT TERM (Days ): 26Sep14 - The S&P 500 is well below the Raff Regression Trend Line. The S&P 500 has dropped 45 points & indicators all point down, however the ADX shows that the trend is weak. (Chart 0008).
MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 26Sep14 - The S&P 500 registered a sizable loss (1.37%) entirely negating the gain of the previous week (1.25%). The last 5 weeks the S&P 500 been relatively flat (Chart 0006).
LONG TERM (Months): 26Sep14 - The Long Term S&P 500 chart (Chart 0007) remains Bullish, however the month of September has been living up to its reputation as a difficult month.

29Sep14: Market Strength: Very Weak (0.0-15.9%) - Of all Non-leveraged Liquid ETFs, 3.8% are 'Bull: Strongest'
26Sep14: Market Strength: Very Weak (0.0-15.9%) - Of all Non-leveraged Liquid ETFs, 3.6% are 'Bull: Strongest'
25Sep14: Market Strength: Very Weak (0.0-15.9%) - Of all Non-leveraged Liquid ETFs, 2.3% are 'Bull: Strongest'

James wrote:
'It is your site and commentary that has taken me to a different level of understanding how to trade. Your organizational skills and selection of indicators have
really helped me understand how to time the market.'

Less

0000 - Guesswork Gone - Bullish/Bearish Ratings - Partial Update as of 30Sep14

As a general rule, I try to chart only those ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 13)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 19)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 23)
5000 - 5999 Day Trade - Intraday Charts. (Page 28)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 38)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 39)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 40)

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0000.1 - Guesswork Gone - Methodology -

ETFs are rated from Weakest to Strongest based largely upon whether they are in a Trend and the strength of that Trend.
ETFs are considered trendless if their ADX Line is below 20 and are trending if their ADX Line is 20 or above and rising.
=============================================================================
Bull shares that are rising are given even numbers. Bull shares that are falling are given odd numbers.

BULL

===================== RISING ==== FALLING

STRONGEST BULL ======= 8 ======== 7
======================= 6 ======== 5
======================= 4 ======== 3
WEAKEST BULL ========= 2 ======== 1
===============================================================================
Bear shares that are falling are given even numbers. Bear shares that are rising are given odd numbers.

BEAR

==================== FALLING ===== RISING

MOST BEARISH ======== -8 ========= -7
===================== -6 ========= -5
===================== -4 ========= -3
LEAST BEARISH ======= -2 ========= -1


Thanks very much to Herb for contributing the above!

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- At Bottom of Trend Line- Turning Bearish (-2) 26Sep14

0001 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Yr Day
12Sep14 - Indicators are now already Bearish or will cross to Bearish very soon.
11Aug14 - Indicators are moving in a Bullish direction as the market moves strongly higher.

Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day- Close Look- Below 50 Day- Turning Bearish (-2) 26Sep14

0002 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Mo Day - Close Look
Note: Overbought implies quickly rising prices while Oversold implies quickly falling prices

17Sep14 - The S&P 500 (and the market in general) has been moving mostly sideways. This is evidenced by the fact that the Bollinger Band Width has become relatively narrow. This condition is termed a 'Squeeze' and is resolved when prices either start to rise or start to fall.

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0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Below 50 Day- Turning Bearish (-2) 26Sep14

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day
21Aug14 - Green arrows abound... The RSI, MACD, ROC, FORCE, and SLOPE suggests the rally began following very Oversold conditions.
07Apr14 - Lesson learned - wait for established Trend (ADX > 25) before placing Buy orders

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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Turning Bearish (-2) 26Sep14

0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Mo Day - Support Zones

Note: Overbought implies quickly rising prices while Oversold implies quickly falling prices

23May14 - Last 5 out of 6 Days have been Up. Green shoots in evidence but too early to tell if the rally is for real.
11Apr14 - The General Trend of the last 6 months looks flat to down.

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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day 1 Hr -Intraday- Chandlier signals Buy

S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
22Jul14 - Intraday roller coaster continues...
07Apr14 @ 2:05 - 10 relentless hours of falling prices!

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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Week - Medium Term: Bull: Growing Weaker (5) 26Sep14

What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?
0Aug14 - AROON signal is Bearish. The uptrend of the S&P 500 has been such that it has not gone below the 20 day EMA of its 6 Month performance. It is now nearing the 20 day EMA line.

James wrote:
'I cannot begin to thank you enough for sharing your work. I've been trading for four years. Most of my understanding of technical analysis has come from books and Stockcharts.com. About a month ago I began to realize your work and your uncanny ability to assess market direction.
It is your site and commentary that has taken me to a different level of understanding how to trade. Your organizational skills and selection of indicators have really help me understand how to time the market.'

StockCharts Members please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE' each and every day. Thanks very much!

0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Mo - Long Term: Bull: Strongest (8) 26Sep14

0007 - What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index
29Aug14 - MFI is in Overbought territory
30Jun14 - June is the 5th straight month of rising prices.

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thank you'

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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Long Term Trend Lines- Below Trend- 26Sep14

0008 - Chart of the S&P 500 (the market) compared to the 2 Year Daily Raff Regression Trend Lines drawn to the March 2014 peak...

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comments on the charts. Thank you'

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