Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 308 Votes: 143 Years Member: 10 Last Update: 27 September 2016, 15:50 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

26Sep16 - Market following Friday 23 September example. The Uptrend of last week appears to have been short lived.

23Sep16 - Last week many ETFs appeared to be 'Bottoming' and this week most of those rose smartly following the decision of the FOMC not to raise interest rates. It now looks as though a new Uptrend may be starting.
Whether this new Uptrend has staying power remains to be seen however.

21Sep16 - Market turns Bullish following announcement that the FOMC will not raise interest rates.

16Sep16 - Prices of European ETFs are dropping. See Charts starting at 2000. Oil and Gas ETFs in the Energy Sector are also struggling (see Charts starting at 4200).

13Sep16 - Head Fake: Yesterday, 12 September, the market rose dramatically, wiping out a good bit of the losses sustained Friday, 9 September. Today, Mondays gains are disappearing. Volatility is King!


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SHORT TERM (Days ): 23Sep16 - Bullish Outlook: Market Strength Assessment Charts (0300 - 0440) have improved significantly.

MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 23Sep16 - Chart 0006: Notwithstanding the loss on Friday, this week the S&P 500 rose 1.19%. Chart 0350, a weekly chart of the Volume Momentum Oscillator, rose slightly following 8 straight losses.

LONG TERM (Months): 23Sep16 - Chart 0007: With only one week of trading left, September is now down only 0.29%. Indicators suggest gains are more likely than losses.

Thanks very much for your support (Follows and Votes)

Less

0000 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary Complete as of 23Sep16

0000 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary

========================================= Weekly Summary =============================================

26Aug16 - Many parts of the market once again traded in a very narrow range and are rated Neutral (0).
Many ETFs were rated in the Neutral (0) range because they only dropped in price two or three days,
however a sizable number of ETFs are now rated Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4).

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Note: As a general rule, I personally invest only in ETFs that are (1) 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and (2) liquid (Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000).

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
0100 - 0190 Weekly Sector Charts (Page 3)
0200 - 0440 Marget Strength Assessment (Page 4)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 15)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 21)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 47)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 47)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 47)

Thanks very much for Follows and Votes!

0000.1 - Methodology -

Please Follow and please Vote.

ETFs are considered without a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is below 20
and are in a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is 20 or above.
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0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- RSI: Up- Turning Up 23Sep16

0001 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Month Daily. Please vote. Thanks very much for your support!

23Sep16 - Market has improved and is nearing Zone of Resistance
(1) - Indicators MACD, TRIX, PMO, and SLOPE are Bearish but improving.
(2) - The Medium Term EMA(34) Day remains below the EMA(13) Day (Bearish) but the gap is narrowing.
(3) - The 100 Day Moving Average at around 2120 appears to have provided support for the S&P 500.

16Sep16 -
(1) - The 100 Day Moving Average at around 2120 appears to have provided support for the S&P 500.
(2) - Indicators MACD, TRIX, PMO, SLOPE, and the Stochastic Indicators signal the market is Bearish.
(3) - EMA(34) Day has dropped Below the EMA(13) Day which is a Bearish Medium Term indicator.


Please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE' daily. Thanks very much!

0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Year Day- RSI: Up- Turning Up 23Sep16

0002 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Years Daily - Please continue to cast your Votes of Support. Thanks very much!

23Sep16 - Mixed Bag: Technical signals show a slight improvment.
(1) - RSI(14) and RSI(21) are both slightly above 50 (Bullish)
(2) - MACD and TSI look as though they have bottomed; TRIX is only slightly improved.
(3) - ROC EMA(20) is Bearish (below 0) but shows a rise.
(4) - SLOPE EMA(20) continues to look Bearish (below 0).

16Sep16 - Technical signals do not suggest a rising market.
(1) - MACD, TSI, and TRIX are all Bearish
(2) - SLOPE EMA(20) is Bearish (below 0)
(3) - ROC EMA(20) is Bearish (below 0)

Note - Overbought is the same as saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is the same as saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- RSI: Up- Turning Up 23Sep16

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day. Thanks very much for Following and for your Votes!

23Sep16 - S&P 500 Indicators suggest market is growing stronger:
(1) - RSI(14) is just over 50 (Bullish)
(2) - MACD(12,26,9) has crossed Bullish.
(3) - SLOPE is Bullish (above 0)
(4) - Both Full and Slow Stochastics look Bullish
(5) - ROC (Rate of Change) continues slightly Bearish (below 0 line)
(6) - S&P 500 Medium Term Trend remains Bearish: EMA(34) is above EMA(13) but gap has narrowed.

16Sep16 - S&P 500 Indicators suggest market is in a weak state:
(1) - S&P 500 Medium Term Trend has become Bearish: EMA(34) is above EMA(13)
(2) - MACD is Bearish
(3) - RSI(14) is under 50 (Bearish)
(4) - SLOPE is Bearish (below 0)
(5) - ROC (Rate of Change) is slightly Bearish (below 0 line)

09Sep16 - S&P 500 is no longer in a tight trading range:
(1) - RSI(14) falling rapidly and Bearish -
(2) - Bollinger Band Width is expanding (to a more typical size)-
(3) - ROC (Rate of Change) => fell below 0 line-
(4) - FORCE => Falling

02Sep16 - S&P 500 continues to meander in a tight trading range:
(1) - RSI(14) rising slightly but fairly flat -
(2) - Bollinger Band Width continues to be very tight (a flat market)-
(3) - ROC (Rate of Change) => moving along 0 line-
(4) - VTX(14) (Vortex Indicator) => No Trend


Thank you for your support. If you have a question, comment, or suggestion, please don't hesitate to email.

0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Month Daily- Short Term: Turning Up 23Sep16

0004 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Months Daily - Thanks very much for your continued support (Votes and Follows).

23Sep16 - Mixed Bag - Stuck in trading range. Last two months have been flat (slight drop of 0.02%).
(1) - MACD(12,26,9) has crossed Bullish.
(2) - Slow Stochastics are rising.
(3) - Medium Term Trend continues BEARISH (EMA 13 Day is BELOW the EMA 34 Day) but gap has narrowed.

16Sep16 -
(1) - The 100 Day Moving Average appears to be supportive of the S&P 500.
(2) - As yet too few data points, but rising Bottoms and Falling Tops may be forming a (Bullish) Triangle pattern.
(3) - Medium Term Trend BEARISH (EMA 13 Day is BELOW the EMA 34 Day)

09Sep16 - From 'Exceedingly Flat!' to 'Falling Off A Cliff'
On 14 July the S&P 500 closed at ~2164. Today the S&P 500 fell abruptly to ~2127. Threat of an FOMC interest rate hike have investors in a mood to sell!

02Sep16 - Flat, More Flat, Exceedingly Flat!
On 14 July the S&P 500 closed at ~2164. Today it is ~2180, only a 16 point rise in 36 trading days. The S&P 500 has gone almost nowhere since mid July

Please 'FOLLOW' and 'VOTE'. Thanks very much for your support!

0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 10 Day Hourly- Intraday Signs: Over CHANDLR: Bull 23Sep16

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days

20Jul16 - Bullish: The S&P 500 is staying above the CHANDLR indicator where it has been for the last 9 days.

01Jul16 - Bullish: The S&P 500 has been above the CHANDLR indicator since 29 June.

22Jun16 - The S&P 500 has been above the CHANDLR indicator since the afternoon of 16 June- A Bullish signal

10Jun16 - The S&P 500 reversed course on Thursday, 09 June, and the fall accelerated on Friday, 10 June.

FYI: When the Chandelier Exit (CHANDLR) is under market prices, it suggests an Uptrend. Conversely, when it is over market prices, it suggests a Downtrend.

Thanks very much for your continued Support! Please don't forget to register your Vote.

0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 3 Years Weekly- Medium Term: Neutral 23Sep16

0006 Question: What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?

23Sep16 - Pushed by another positive week, RSI(14) is above 50 (Bullish) but MACD, TSI, and TRIX continue Bearish and Slow Stochastics has not improved. Although the week showed a nice 1.19% gain, further evidence of improvement is needed.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend remains BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

16Sep16 - Based on a positive week, RSI(14) ticked up, however MACD, TSI, and TRIX crossed Bearish and Slow Stochastics dropped from Overbought. Although the week showed a gain, the wick of the candlestick shows the week closed (at 2139) well below the peak reading (of 2163).
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend remains BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

09Sep16 - RSI(14) is falling. MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX are falling toward Bearish readings. AROON is also moving lower and may soon become Bearish.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend remains BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).


Thank you very much for your Support.

0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs- Long Term (Monthly): Topping- Neutral 23Sep16

0007 - Question: What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index. Thanks for your continued support!

23Sep16 - With three quarters of the month in the books, September is down a mere 0.29%. PMO(35,20,10) is still Bearish and has narrowed but looks very flat. The S&P 500 continues in the trading range it has been in for over a year.

16Sep16 - The August Japanese Candlestick Spinning Top may have marked a change in direction as halfway through the month, September is down 1.46% and has a good chance to close down. That having been said, nothing on this chart looks to me to be particularly alarming. In fact StochRSI is moving horizontally and PMO looks to have bottomed.

09Sep16 - The August Japanese Candlestick Spinning Top seems likely to have marked a change in direction as September is down 1.99% and seems likely to be a fairly negative month.

02Sep16 - September is ahead 0.42%. The tiny loss of August isn't enough to wipe away the higher direction of monthly prices.

31Aug16 - The August gain disappeared as the month finished with a small loss of -0.12%. In addition a sixth straight month of higher prices disappeared as well. The tiny loss of August isn't enough to wipe away the higher direction of monthly prices.

Thanks very much for your continued support!

0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 5 Years Monthly MA 50 vs. MA 200 Falling 23Sep16

0008 - S&P 500 Large Caps Index ($SPX) - 5 Years Monthly MA 50 vs. MA 200

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