Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 315 Votes: 146 Years Member: 10 Last Update: 27 August 2016, 17:34 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

26Aug16 - A large number of ETFs are falling. Biotech, Real Estate, Utilities, Emerging Market and Energy ETFs are some of those that are falling.

26Aug16 - Note: I'm in the process of adding the Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) and rearranging the contents of my 6 Month Charts. This effort will take some time so thanks for your patience. and your support.

19Aug16 - The S&P 500 and many segments of the US market continued to trade in a very
narrow range. In fact the S&P 500 is in an epic sideways drift, now of 26 days duration.

15Aug16 - Another new All-Time-High recorded for the S&P 500 as it may be heading for 2200.

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SHORT TERM (Days ): 26Aug16 - Market Strength Assessment Charts (0300 - 0440) suggests that, in general, prices are falling.

MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 26Aug16 - Chart 0006: This week the S&P 500 declined by 0.68%%. Chart 0350, a weekly chart of the Volume Momentum Oscillator, fell for the 5th straight week.

LONG TERM (Months): 26Aug16 - Chart 0007: With four weeks of trading in the books and three days left, August is down a small -0.21%. Unless things change next week, August may prove to be the first down month in the last six.

Thanks very much for your support (Follows and Votes)

Less

0000 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary Complete as of 26Aug16

0000 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary

========================================= Weekly Summary =============================================

26Aug16 - Many parts of the market once again traded in a very narrow range and are rated Neutral (0).
Many ETFs were rated in the Neutral (0) range because they only dropped in price two or three days,
however a sizable number of ETFs are now rated Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4).

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Note: As a general rule, I personally invest only in ETFs that are (1) 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and (2) liquid (Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000).

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
0100 - 0190 Weekly Sector Charts (Page 3)
0200 - 0440 Marget Strength Assessment (Page 4)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 15)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 21)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 47)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 47)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 47)

Thanks very much for Follows and Votes!

0000.1 - Methodology -

Please Follow and please Vote.

ETFs are considered without a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is below 20
and are in a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is 20 or above.
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0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- BBW Squeeze- RSI: Flat- Neutral (0) 26Aug16

0001 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Month Daily. Please vote. Thanks very much for your support!

26Aug16 - The S&P 500 appears to be losing some steam insofar as prices have been lower each the last three trading days. Whether this is the beginning of a downward trend or only part of a drawn out (healthy) sideways consolidation remains to be seen. RSI(14) has dipped below 50 which is Bearish. Stochastics, ROC, and ChiOsc all agree.

19Aug16 - The width of the Bollinger Bands continues to look quite narrow due to the minute price changes of the last five weeks. A 'Squeeze' occurs when the trading range of the market is much lower than normal. This condition is temporary and will probably resolve itself very soon.

12Aug16 - The width of the Bollinger Bands have become very narrow as a result of the minimal price changes of the last four weeks. This is termed a 'Squeeze' and says that the trading range of the market is much lower than normal. A Squeeze is a temporary condition and not likely to last.

05Aug16 - End of Week Surprise: A very strong Friday set a new All-Time-Record for the S&P 500 and direction of changed indicators to Up. Note however that Volume was just a tad above average and that the Bollinger Band Width suggests a 'Squeeze'.

04Aug16 - More of the Same: Flat - The Bollinger Band Width has continued to contract which is characteristic of a market with little Up or Down momentum. Extremely narrow Bollinger Band 'Squeeze' conditions usually signal that an end of listless market conditions is drawing close.

Please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE' daily. Thanks very much!

0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Year Day- In Resistance- 26Aug16

0002 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Years Daily - Please continue to cast your Votes of Support. Thanks very much!

26Aug16 - The S&P 500 has slowly worked itself lower and it is now close to the bottom of the Resistance band. RSI(14) dipped into Bearish territory and Momentum Indicators MACD, TSI, and TRIX, also look Bearish. Thus far however the BBW indicates the narrow trading range is still in place making it too early to say that the next move will be lower.

19Aug16 - Momentum Indicators, MACD, TSI, and TRIX, work when the market is trending Up or Down. They are now inconsistent and unreliable, reflecting the fact that the S&P 500 has been flat for five weeks. Confirming the lack of any trend, the Bollinger Band Width is very low. This 'Squeeze' condition is usually of fairly short duration, however this time the Squeeze has been of abnormally long duration.

12Aug16 - Momentum Indicators, MACD, TSI, and TRIX, have become inconsistent reflecting the fact that the S&P 500 has been flat for four weeks. In agreement Bollinger Band Width is very low suggesting a 'Squeeze', a temporary condition that usually is of fairly short duration.

05Aug16 - Early in the week it looked as though the S&P 500 was going to experience some profit taking, but starting Wednesday the market gradually improved and based on a relatively strong Uptick on Friday, the S&P 500 has now moved into record territory. Most noticeably the RSI and Stochastics have bounced. Momentum Indicators (MACD, TSI, and TRIX) haven't moved much but the direction of MACD and TSI is now Up.

Note - Overbought is the same as saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is the same as saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- RSI: Flat- Neutral (0) 26Aug16

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day. Thanks very much for your Votes!

26Aug16 - S&P 500 prices have been slowly falling:
RSI(14) in Bearish territory falling and slightly below 50 -
Stochastics are Bearish -
Narrow Bollinger Band Width continues -
ROC (Rate of Change) => falling and below 0 -
VTX(14) (Vortex Indicator) => No Trend

19Aug16 - More of the same:
RSI(14) Flat -
Quite narrow Bollinger Band Width -
ROC (Rate of Change) => flat and close to 0 -
VTX(14) (Vortex Indicator) => No Trend

12Aug 16 - Flat RSI(14) - Narrow Bollinger Band Width - Rate of Change => close to 0 - Vortex Indicator => No Trend - PVO suggests low Volume.

05Aug 16 - The strong close on Friday put the S&P just below the top of the (somewhat narrow) Bollinger Band. Because the market has been flat, the Bollinger Band narrowed. A breakout (to the Upside) from this tight trading range could easily have just started.

Thank you for your support. If you have a question, comment, or suggestion, please don't hesitate to email.

0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Month Daily- Short Term: Neutral (0) 26Aug16

0004 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Months Daily - Thanks very much for your continued support (Votes and Follows).

26Aug16 - Flat, More Flat, Exceedingly Flat!
On 14 July the S&P 500 closed at ~2164. Today it is ~2169, only a 5 point rise in 31 trading days. The S&P 500 has gone almost nowhere since mid July.

19Aug16 - Flat Flat Flat!
On 14 July the S&P 500 closed at ~2164. Today it is ~2183, only an 19 point rise in 26 trading days.

17Aug16 - Modest Rally: On 14 July the S&P 500 closed at ~2164. Today it is ~2182, only an 18 point rise in 24 trading days. Less than a point per day increase and almost no Volatility.

12Aug16 - During the last four weeks the net difference in price of the S&P 500 has been an increase of only 18 points. In addition this has been accompanied by almost no Volatility.

05Aug16 - Notwithstanding the nice upward move on Friday, during the last three weeks price change of the S&P 500 has only been 12 points.

Please 'FOLLOW' and 'VOTE'. Thanks very much for your support!

0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 10 Day Hourly- Intraday Signs: Under CHANDLR: Bear 26Aug16

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days

20Jul16 - Bullish: The S&P 500 is staying above the CHANDLR indicator where it has been for the last 9 days.

01Jul16 - Bullish: The S&P 500 has been above the CHANDLR indicator since 29 June.

22Jun16 - The S&P 500 has been above the CHANDLR indicator since the afternoon of 16 June- A Bullish signal

10Jun16 - The S&P 500 reversed course on Thursday, 09 June, and the fall accelerated on Friday, 10 June.

FYI: When the Chandelier Exit (CHANDLR) is under market prices, it suggests an Uptrend. Conversely, when it is over market prices, it suggests a Downtrend.

Thanks very much for your continued Support! Please don't forget to register your Vote.

0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 3 Years Weekly- Medium Term: Neutral 26Aug16

0006 Question: What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?

26Aug16 - The past week the S&P 500 was down 0.68%. Further S&P 500 gains may not be forthcoming.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend remains BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

19Aug16 - The past week the S&P 500 was down a minute 0.01%. This was the 2nd consecutive week featuring a Japanese Candlestick Spinning Top, suggesting that Bull and Bears are evenly divided.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend remains BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

12Aug16 - For the week the S&P 500 was up a slight 0.05%. Momentum Indicators, MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX, look strong. Volume remains weak.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend remains BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

05Aug16 - For the week the S&P 500 was up 0.43%, and closed strongly on a new All-Time-Weekly-High. Momentum Indicators MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX continue to look very strong. Even though the market closed at a record, Volume was not particularly high.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend remains BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).

Thank you very much for your Support.

0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs- Long Term (Monthly): Turning Up 26Aug16

0007 - Question: What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index. Thanks for your continued support!

26Aug16 - This week the August gain disappeared and is now a small loss of -0.21%. A sixth straight month of higher prices is up in the air with only three trading days left.

19Aug16 - This week the August gain declined very slightly to 0.47%. August is still likely to record a sixth straight month of higher prices, but this could change quickly.

12Aug16 - After two weeks, August shows a gain of 0.48% and could become the sixth straight month of higher prices. PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) continued slow improvement.

05Aug16 - August started with a gain of 0.43% and so August could become the sixth straight month of higher prices. Watching the PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) as it continues to slowly improve

29Jul16 - In July the S&P 500 was up 3.56%. This is the fifth straight month of gains. Notwithstanding the gains, the Percent Volume Indicator (PVO), a MACD for Volume, continues to signal that the volume is below average, not a welcome sign in a Bull market.

Thanks very much for your continued support!

0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 5 Years Monthly MA 50 vs. MA 200 Rising 26Aug16

0008 - S&P 500 Large Caps Index ($SPX) - 5 Years Monthly MA 50 vs. MA 200

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