Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!
0000 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary as of 06May16 in Progress
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I personally invest only in ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.
I especially avoid like the plague any ETF whose SCTR is below 30.
Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 15)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 22)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 37)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 44)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 45)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 45)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 46)
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0000.1 - Methodology -
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ETFs are considered without a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is below 20 and are in a Trend if their ADX(14) Line is 20 or above.
0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- RSI: Falling- Turning Down (-2) 06May16
0001 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Month Daily. Please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE' daily. Thanks very much!
06May16 - For more than two weeks the S&P 500 has been falling and is in now 'Short Term Turning Down' (-2). Signals (Red Down Arrows) are many. RSI(5) is below 50 (Bearish) and importantly MACD(20,35,10) is also Bearish.
29Apr16 - The S&P 500 is on the cusp of being declared Short Term Turning Down (-2). It looks like 'Sell in May' may come true. MACD has just crossed Bearish following a lengthy flat period.
22Apr16 - The S&P 500 continued to move higher but the pace of increase is much slower than it was. The flat movement of MACD shows this. Also the Chaikin Oscillator shows more buying than selling pressure
15Apr16 - The Zig-Zag upward pattern continued this week. The market is higher than it has been in quite some some although the pace of the rise has visibly slowed. Mind the BBW 'Squeeze'.
08Apr16 - The duration of the current move lower is longer than those of past weeks and this time the MACD has crossed Bearish. Both Vortex and RSI confirm the Short Term Uptrend has either slowed considerably or could be over.
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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Year Day- RSI: Falling- Turning Down (-2) 06May16
0002 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Years Daily - Please continue to cast your Votes of Support. Thanks very much!
06May16 - MACD, TSI, and TRIX signals remain Bearish. The S&P 500 is below Resistance although one signal, RSI(5), ticked Up (above 30).
29Apr16 - MACD, TSI, and TRIX signals are Bearish. The S&P 500 has dropped below Resistance and both RSI and Stochastics are dropping.
22Apr16 - RESISTANCE: MACD, TSI, and TRIX signals remain in disagreement. MACD is flat, TSI is Bullish and TRIX is Bearish. Since mid February the S&P 500 has gained 180 points and in this area there is considerable resistance to go higher.
15Apr16 - Here's a first: MACD, TSI, and TRIX signals are in disagreement. MACD is flat, TSI is Bullish and TRIX is Bearish. In point of fact, this market has been a mighty Bull since mid February but Flat if you look at it since the beginning of the year!
08Apr16 - Signs of decline are numerous, RSI and Stochastics are dropping and MACD, TSI, TRIX, MFI all look very close to Bearish crossovers.
In addition the Vortex Indicator looks close to a Bearish cross.
Note - Overbought same as saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold same as saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.
0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- MACD: Bearish- RSI: Falling- Turning Down (-2) 06May16
0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day. Thanks very much for your Votes!
06May16 - Signals (Red Arrows) remain Bearish. S&P 500 is very close to being rated Bear (-4), however one positive development is that RSI(5) has ticked up slightly.
29Apr16 - Signals (see Red Arrows) have turned Bearish. Weak earnings and poor economic reports have the Sell in May crowd out early.
22Apr16 - The price chart looks OK but RSI and Stochastics suggest the market may be running on fumes. MACD has been flat to down which does not bode well.
15Apr16 - Another Whipsaw looks very possible as the MACD dipped Bearish but now looks as though it will soon cross Bullish.
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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day- Med Term: Bull- MACD: Bearish- Turning Down (-2) 06May16
0004 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Months Daily - Thanks very much for your Votes and for your continued support!
06May16 - The Short Term Trend continues to the downside. MACD suggests a further drop in prices is likely to occur although Stochastic has ticked up slightly.
29Apr16 - The Short Term Trend is to the downside, although the Medium Term Trend remains Bullish. MACD and Stochastics suggest a further drop in prices is likely.
22Apr16 - A brief visit to 2111 on Wednesday marked the latest high. On Friday the S&P 500 dipped 30 points below that mark but closed only 20 points lower at 2091. MACD has been flat for several weeks, reflecting the fact that recent gains have been modest.
15Apr16 - Zig-Zag: Another Zig Up this week, but the Zigs Up are shorter in duration and the Zags Down longer. Caution: ADX and Vortex suggest that the Up Trend may be short lived.
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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day Hrly- Early Signs: Below CHANDLR- Bearish- 06May16
0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
05Apr16 - S&P 500 is below CHANDLR - Bearish development
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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 3 Yr- Weekly Medium Term: Weak Bull 06May16
0006 Question: What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index? Please cast your Votes. Many Thanks!
06May16 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 dropped again this week and closed down -0.40%. RSI dipped and Momentum Indicators (MACD and PPO) are slightly closer to Bearish crossovers.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend continued BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is remains slightly ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).
29Apr16 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 dropped this week and closed down -1.26%. RSI dipped and Momentum Indicators (MACD and PPO) appear to have have crested and may drop to Bearish crossovers.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend continued BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is slightly ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).
22Apr16 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 climbed further into the Resistance zone and closed ahead 0.52%. MACD, PMO, TSI, and TRIX signal Bull, as does RSI(14).
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend continued BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is ABOVE the 34 Week EMA).
15Apr16 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 climbed back into the Resistance zone on the back of two strong days and closed the week ahead 1.62% and importantly is now Medium Term Bullish.
The 'Medium Term' Weekly EMA Trend crossed BULLISH (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is ABOVE the 34 Week EMA) after being BEARISH the entire first quarter of 2016.
0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs- Long Term (Monthly): Slight Down-Trend- Neutral 06May16
0007 - Question: What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index. Thanks for your Votes!
06May16 - The 1st Trading Week of May is over and the month began down slightly (-0.40%). The early promise of April was, in the end, never realized and May appears to be continuing the market's slow downward drift.
29Apr16 - April 2016 trading is history and April closed ahead a disappointing 0.27%. Indeed a second positive month since the February Bullish Hammer however the weak finish does not bode well going forward.
22Apr16 - With three quarters of April in the books, the S&P 500 is ahead 1.55% for the month. A second positive month since the February Bullish Hammer puts the S&P 500 above the Long Term Trend line (shown in Orange).
15Apr16 - Halfway through the month of April, the S&P 500 is ahead a respectable 1.02%, but more importantly it looks as though the S&P 500 has breached the Long Term Trend line. Interestingly also, the Vortex suggests that the Long Term Trend has been flat since July of 2015.
08Apr16 - Although March was a very good month, the flat to down pattern that began last April was not broken in March. If 1st Quarter earnings are good the pattern could be broken, however thus far April is off to a relatively slow start.
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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 30 Yrs Mnthly- Long Term DECLINE per PMO: Exercise Caution 06May16
0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) - 30 Years Monthly
29Jan16 - CAUTION: The Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO) has been a reliable guide to Long Term market direction and it is presently signaling that a Long Term decline is underway.