Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 302 Votes: 164 Years Member: 10 Last Update: 26 November 2015, 12:12 Categories: Trend Analysis
Swing Trading

25Nov15 - Happy Thanksgiving Holiday to All! Pre-Holiday trading is light. The Short Term direction of the market is mostly horizontal with a slight upward bias.
20Nov15 - Good news: Using the S&P 500 as a proxy for the market (Chart 0004), Momentum Indicator MACD is turning up. RSI and Stochastics look Bullish but have not reached Overbought. Bad News: at 2089 the market is running out of headroom and is in a wide area of strong resistance
18Nov15 - Market showing signs of coming back: RSI for Large Caps has turned Bullish.
17Nov15 - Bear grip weakening. Although it is still very early, S&P 500 Support appears to have held.
13Nov15 - Friday the 13th lived up to its reputation. Bulls abandoned ship as market continued to sink. Momentum Oscillators (Chart 0025, 0026) and Breadth (Chart 0027) Falling

SHORT TERM (Days ): 20Nov15 - As Bearish as was the week ending 13 November, the week ending 20 November was Bullish. US, most Emerging Markets, and most non-US ETFs did well. European, Metals, and Energy ETFs performed poorly.
MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 20Nov15 - The S&P 500 Weekly (Chart 0006) shows the market has reached an area of strong resistance so although I expect further gains, I feel they will be realized at a modest pace.
LONG TERM (Months): 20Nov15 - The S&P 500 Monthly (Chart 0007) shows that although the Large Caps looks pretty flat for the year, the Large Caps are trying to close out the year on a positive note.

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0000 Guesswork Gone- Winners/Losers Summary as of 20Nov15

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I never Buy any ETF whose SCTR is below 70 and especially avoid like the plague any ETF whose SCTR is below 30. As a general rule, I try to rate only those ETFs
whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70) & whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 15)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 22)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 37)

6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 44)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 45)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 45)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 46)

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0000.1 - Guesswork Gone - Methodology -

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ETFs are rated from Weakest to Strongest based upon whether they are in a Trend and the strength of that Trend.

ETFs are considered trendless if their ADX Line is below 20 and are trending if their ADX Line is 20 or above and rising.
Bull shares that are rising are given even numbers. Bull shares that are falling are given odd numbers.


===================== RISING ==== FALLING

STRONGEST BULL ======= 8 ======== 7
======================= 6 ======== 5
======================= 4 ======== 3
WEAKEST BULL ========= 2 ======== 1
Bear shares that are falling are given even numbers. Bear shares that are rising are given odd numbers.


==================== FALLING ===== RISING

MOST BEARISH ======== -8 ========= -7
===================== -6 ========= -5
===================== -4 ========= -3
LEAST BEARISH ======= -2 ========= -1

Thanks very much to Herb for contributing the above!

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- RSI: Bullish- Turning Up (2) 20Nov15

0001 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Yr Day - Please Follow and please Vote. Thanks very much!
20Nov15 - Good News: MACD(20,35,10), TRIX, and TSI remain Bearish but appear to be turning up. RSI(5) and more importantly RSI(14) are above 50 and rising (Bullish). The Slow Stochastic is also Bullish. Bad News: The market has entered an area which has provided considerable resistance all year.
13Nov15 - MACD(20,35,10), TRIX, and TSI are all Bearish. The S&P 500 has moved below Resistance and is now near Support from ~2020 to ~2000. Since the drop was so rapid, I fear downward momentum may sweep the market another 100 points down to the next Support area which is below 1900.
06Nov15 - The S&P 500 continues to trade in a strong Resistance area. Although MACD(20,35,10) looks OK, TRIX and TSI appear to be cresting. Bottom Line: Because the market has come so far so fast and is now in a region of strong resistance, I expect choppy trading for the next several weeks.
04Nov15 - Bullish: The Average Directional Index (ADX) has moved above 25 which suggests that a strong trend has been established.

Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day Stochastics: Rising- Short Term: Turning Up (2) 20Nov15

0002 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Mo Day - Close Look - Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much!
20Nov15 - A swift turnaround has propelled the S&P 500 into an area of Resistance and not far from the point where it foundered almost three weeks ago. If the market can get past 2110 it may go on to challenge record highs.
13Nov15 - The S&P 500 has fallen swiftly and has now reached an area of possible Support. If the market does not hold and falls below 2000, the next area of Support appears to be under 1900.
06Nov15 -The S&P 500 started strong this week but then struggled. On Balance Volume continued to decline and MACD weakened. The last three days were Down with lower Highs and lower Lows, however the Medium Term continues to look Bullish suggesting longer term further improvement is likely.
30Oct15 -The Market did little this week, although it eked out a small gain. Four days were Down and the week was only saved by a very strong Wednesday. The Medium Term continues to look Bullish suggesting further improvement is likely over time, however On Balance Volume reflects last two days and over the Short Term the market may struggle.

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0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Above 200 Day- Turning Up (2) 20Nov15

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day
20Nov15 - As bad as was the week of 13 November, the week of 20 November was almost as good. The MACD is improving and is suggestive of a Bullish Crossover. RSI and Stochastics are Bullish but do not look Overbought.
13Nov15 - The proxy for the market, the S&P 500, has become Bearish. The MACD has crossed to Bearish and neither the 200 Day nor the 100 Day Moving Averages provided Support. It looks likely that the S&P 500 will drop below 2000.
06Nov15 - The proxy for the market, the S&P 500 is in a strong area of resistance. The Medium Term direction continues to be Up, suggesting future movement is more likely to be Up than Down, however MACD has crested so expect more turbulent days ahead.
30Oct15 - The Market has reached a strong area of resistance so expect the rate of price rise to slow/pause. The Medium Term direction of the market is Up, strongly suggesting future movement is more likely to be Up than Down.
23Oct15 - The Market moved above the 200 day Moving Average and but does not yet appear highly Overbought. The Medium Term direction of the market is Up, strongly suggesting future movement of the market will be higher, however the market has reached a strong area of resistance so expect a slower rate of rise.

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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Stochastics: Bullish- Turning Up (2) 20Nov15

0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Month Daily
20Nov15 - Reversal of fortune: MACD Histogram signals that there may soon be a Bullish crossover. RSI and Stochastics look Bullish.
13Nov15 - MACD and other Indicators are now Bearish. RSI(5) and Slow Stochastics have reached Oversold. What was a slow leak last week became a torrent this week as 4 out of 5 days were down.
06Nov15 - Indicators showing signs of fatigue and now appear to be cresting. First two days of this week were strong but the last three days the Large Caps were on pause.

Note: Being 'Overbought' implies prices have risen quickly while 'Oversold' implies prices have fallen quickly.

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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day Hrly- Above CHANDLR (Bullish)- Turning Up Hourly (2) 24Nov15

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
13Nov15 - Bearish: Well below CHANDLR

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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Week- Medium Term- Up 3.27%- Bull: Weakest (3) 20Nov15

0006 Question: What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?
20Nov15 - Medium Term (Weekly): Following last week's poor showing, the market this week managed to claw back almost all that it lost. Indicator RSI(14) is once again above 50 and pointing up (Bullish). Momentum Indicators MACD, PPO, TRIX, and TSI remain Bullish.
The 'Medium Term' Trend remains Bearish (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is below the 34 Week EMA) but just barely; a Bullish crossover is imminent.

13Nov15 - Medium Term (Weekly): Indicators have turned down following a strong price drop after 6 consecutive Up weeks. RSI is below 50 and pointing down which is Bearish. Indicators MACD, PPO, TRIX, and TSI all of which had crossed Bullish now are pointing down.
The 'Medium Term' Trend remains Bearish (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) remains below the 34 Week EMA) and a Bullish crossover now looks unlikely for some time.

06Nov15 - Medium Term (Weekly): The 6th consecutive week of S&P 500 (Large Cap) gains. Full Stochastic is approaching Overbought but RSI(14) isn't even close. Near term Resistance/Consolidation appears likely but future prospects have not dimmed.
The 'Medium Term' Trend remains Bearish (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is below the 34 Week EMA) but a Bullish crossover looks likely. Indicators MACD, PPO, TRIX, and TSI have crossed Bullish.

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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Mnth- StochRSI & Wm% Rising- Long Term- Edging Up 20Nov15

0007 - Question: What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index
20Nov15 - With 5 trading days to go, November is slightly ahead at 0.47%. Indicators StochRSI and Wm% have recovered and more importantly the PMO appears flat.
13Nov15 - Recovery on hold: November is off 2.71% following a really bad week. Indicators StochRSI and Wm% are falling.
06Nov15 - Recovery continues: Following a jaw dropping October gain of 8.30%, the first week of November started with a nice rise of 0.95%.
30Oct15 - October gained a whopping 8.30% and is close to the bottom of the Andrew's Pitchfork Trend Line.
23Oct15 - The S&P 500 has now gained a whopping 8.08% on October and is ahead of where it opened on 01Jan15. With only one week left in October, it will almost certainly close strongly in the Up column.
16Oct15 - October is up almost 6%. 12 trading days in the books, the month seems very likely to close in the Up column, but it will take more than one Up month to re-establish the prior Trend.

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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Chart- Within Resistance- Turning Up (2) 20Nov15

0008 - Two year Chart of the S&P 500 (Proxy for the market).
20Nov15 - Although the Momentum Indicators (MACD, KST, TRIX, TSI) have not (yet) turned around, the S&P 500 has managed to move back into Resistance. This is the strong congestion/resistance area it has struggled to overcome all year.
13Nov15 - The S&P 500 has fallen from the strong congestion/resistance area it was in through the first Support Area and looks likely to test the next Support Area from ~1940 to ~1980.
30Oct15 - The S&P 500 has moved into a wide area of strong congestion/resistance which runs from ~2080 to the prior market top at ~2135. It seems reasonable to expect the Market to falter/pause while recent gains consolidate before the advance continues.
23Oct15 - The S&P 500 appears to have moved through an area of Resistance. Resistance once breached becomes Support. Market may pause while gains are consolidated insofar as the pace of the advance seems unsustainable.

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