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Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 314 Votes: 223 Years Member: 9 Last Update: 28 January 2015, 14:29 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

23Jan15 - Notwithstanding all the volatility, for the last 6 weeks, from US Large Caps to Small Caps, large segments of the US market have gone nowhere. (Please Follow & Vote)
16Jan15 - Overall Market is Bearish. Double Top pattern cause for concern. Leaders: Gold and Silver shine (GDX, SLV), REITs (ICF, IYR), Biotech (BIB, XBI), and Treasury Bonds (TLT). European ETFs showing some strength.
09Jan15 - Overall: American market in consolidation. Leaders: Dollar (UUP), Preferred (PFF), Real Estate (ICF, IYR), Biotech (XBI), Chinese (ASHR) and Indian ETFs show strength. (Please Follow & Vote)
08Jan15 - Too soon for champagne but early signs from changing Indicators: The Market may have resumed its Bull Trend.

SHORT TERM (Days ): 23Jan15 - Looking at December and January on Chart 0004, the S&P 500 made no real progress. Although the market has been on a roller coaster it isn't very far from where it started.
MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 23Jan15 - The Weekly Volume Momentum chart (0027) registered positive momentum for the first time in the last 4 weeks, which could indicate a turn.
LONG TERM (Months): 23Jan15 - The S&P 500 Monthly Chart (0007), shows January is negative (but only slightly) with 1 more week of trading.

23Jan15: Market Breadth Rating (Week Over Week) Improved - 19.1% => 11.4% => 14.7% => 21.3%

James wrote:
'It is your site and commentary that has taken me to a different level of understanding how to trade. Your organizational skills and selection of indicators have
really helped me understand how to time the market.'
Thank you very much for Following & Voting

Less

0000 Guesswork Gone- Bullish/Bearish Ratings- Partial Rating Updates as of 27Jan15

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As a general rule, I try to chart only those ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 13)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 19)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 23)
5000 - 5999 Day Trade - Intraday Charts. (Page 28)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 38)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 39)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 40)

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0000.1 - Guesswork Gone - Methodology -

ETFs are rated from Weakest to Strongest based largely upon whether they are in a Trend and the strength of that Trend.
ETFs are considered trendless if their ADX Line is below 20 and are trending if their ADX Line is 20 or above and rising.
=============================================================================
Bull shares that are rising are given even numbers. Bull shares that are falling are given odd numbers.

BULL

===================== RISING ==== FALLING

STRONGEST BULL ======= 8 ======== 7
======================= 6 ======== 5
======================= 4 ======== 3
WEAKEST BULL ========= 2 ======== 1
===============================================================================
Bear shares that are falling are given even numbers. Bear shares that are rising are given odd numbers.

BEAR

==================== FALLING ===== RISING

MOST BEARISH ======== -8 ========= -7
===================== -6 ========= -5
===================== -4 ========= -3
LEAST BEARISH ======= -2 ========= -1


Thanks very much to Herb for contributing the above!

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Below Lower Trend Line- Edging Bullish (1) 23Jan15

0001 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Yr Day
23Jan15 - The Long Term upward trend remains intact. Recent gyrations, although somewhat violent, have not resulted in a trend change (Thanks for Follows & Votes)

Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

From Bob: 'While I have traded for years using the discipline of charts, your site has added greater precision and greater relevance to my trading process..
I am really indebted to you and very much appreciate the free service you provide.'

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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day- Intermediate Trend: Edging Bullish (1) 23Jan15

0002 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Mo Day - Close Look
23Jan15 - Another week, another swing. The overall trend strength has deteriorated and is now weak, suggesting that the market is in a 110+ point trading range.
15Jan15 - The strength of the trend as signaled by the ADX(14) pushed above 25. This suggests that the downtrend is well established and likely to continue longer. Of course in this volatile market, anything is possible.
12Jan14 - Whipsaw: The gains of the two strong Up days of last week may soon be erased
09Jan15 - The S&P 500 Large Caps have been oscillating for the last month or so. Volatility is king, with large swings the norm. Earnings announcements will soon influence market direction.

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0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Volatile- Above 100 Day MA- Edging Bullish (1) 23Jan15

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day
23Jan15 - MACD, Stochastics, RSI, SLOPE, and FORCE suggest rising prices should continue, but the weak trend (ADX(14)), like a flag in a weak breeze, tells us to put little weight on the indicators.
15Jan15 - The downward trend is gaining strength. The S&P 500 is in an area of support but a test of the 200 day MA may await.
09Jan15 - An inconsistent and VOLATILE week left the S&P 500 at its 50 Day Moving Average. RSI(5) bounded from Oversold and so did the Slow Stochastics, however the weak close on Friday gives one pause.

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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Volatile- Above 50 Day MA- Edging Bullish (1) 23Jan15

0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Mo Day - Support Zones
23Jan15 - Intermediate Trend looks likely to turn Bullish (13 Day EMA looks likely to cross above the 34 Day EMA).
16Jan15 - Double Top pattern is cause for concern.
15Jan15 - It looks as though there is a strong chance of going below the 200 day MA.

Note: Overbought implies quickly rising prices while Oversold implies quickly falling prices

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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day 1 Hr -Intraday- Above Chandlr (Bullish)- Edging Bullish (1) 23Ja

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
26Jan15 - 10 Day Chart of the S&P 500 - the Average Directional Index (ADX) and the Bollinger Bands narrowing signals that the trend is getting very weak, suggests that the market has been moving mainly sideways.

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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Week- Medium Term: Growing Less Bullish (5) 23Jan15

0006 What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?
16Jan15 - Medium Term (Weekly): Following 3 consecutive weeks down the S&P 500 Large Caps registered a strong 1.6% gain.

The 'Medium Term' Trend continues Bullish (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) remains well above the 34 Week EMA)

'Shorter Term' Trend Indicators MACD, PPO, TRIX, and TSI remain Bearish but in each case, the slope of the trend line is close to horizontal.

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It is your site and commentary that has taken me to a different level of understanding how to trade. Your organizational skills and selection of indicators have really help me understand how to time the market.'

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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Mo- Long Term- Bull: Topping (7) 23Jan15

0007 - What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index

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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Long Term Trend Lines- Edging Bullish (1) 23Jan15

0008 - Chart of the S&P 500 (the market) compared to the 2 Year Daily Raff Regression Trend Lines drawn to the September 2014 peak...
12Dec14 - Indicators all reflect the Bearish tone of this market.

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comments on the charts. Thank you'

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