Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 FollowersHas Been a Top Public ChartList for Over 3 Months Rank: 6 Followers: 312 Votes: 164 Years Member: 11 Last Update: 22 February 2017, 14:51 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

17Feb17 - Markets have done very well and Technical Indicators look quite Bullish. However that having been said, things look too rosy so my advice is to play it safe and take a chunk off the table.

10Feb17 - Weekly (Charts 0100 to 0190) and the Monthly Charts (0001) reveal what the Daily Charts miss: The Market is in Rally Mode with Bulls in charge.

09Feb16 - New All-Time-Closing-Record, 2307.67 set by the S&P 500.

07Feb17 - Markets in Stealth Rally/Consolidation/Pause mode... Mostly flat but with a slight positive bias.

03Feb17 - Note: Chart 0000.1 - Although a large number of ETFs maintain 'Bull' status, many are hanging by a thread, neither rising, nor falling. I have categorized these as 'Topping'.

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SHORT TERM (Days): 17Feb17 - Chart 0000.2: Summary of Market Strength Assessment Charts (0300 - 0440): Bull's in Charge: 11 charts are Bullish, 2 charts are Neutral, 1 chart is Bearish.

MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 17Feb17 - Chart 0002: Weekly Indicators Support Bullish Rally

LONG TERM (Months): 17Feb17 - Chart 0001: February 2017 continuing the Bullish monthly trend.

Thanks very much for your support (Follows and Votes).

Less

0000.1 - SHORT TERM Rating Summary - as of 16Feb17

16Feb17 - An unusually large number of ETFs have been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2):

(1) 104 ETFs have been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2).
(2) 28 ETFs have been rated Neutral (0).
(3) 17 ETFs have been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4).


09Feb17 - Quite a large number of ETFs have been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2):

(1) 81 ETFs have been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2).
(2) 45 ETFs have been rated Neutral (0).
(3) 23 ETFs have been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4).

02Feb - Many ETFs have been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2) but also many are rated Neutral (0):

(1) Sixty-three ETFs have been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2).
(2) Sixty-five ETFs have been rated Neutral (0).
(3) Twenty-two ETFs have been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4).

26Jan - Many ETFs are moving Up but many also are moving Sideways:

(1) Sixty-nine ETFs have been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2).
(2) Sixty-seven ETFs have been rated Neutral (0).
(3) Fourteen ETFs have been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4).

19Jan - Most ETFs are moving Sideways or are on the cusp of turning Bearish:

(1) Twenty-four ETFs have been declared Bull (4) or Turning Up (2).
(2) One hundred four ETFs have been rated Neutral (0).
(3) Twenty-seven ETFs have been declared Turning Down (-2) or Bear (-4).


Thanks for your support (Following my Chart List and Voting for it).

0000.2 - Market Strength Assessment Summary - Bullish: 11 Bull, 2 Neutral, 1 Bear as of 17Feb17

0000.2 - Market Strength Assessment Chart Summary

As of 17Feb17 - Bull's in Charge
(1) 11 charts are Bullish.
(2) 2 charts are Neutral.
(3) 1 chart is Bearish

As of 10Feb17 - Bullish Bias
(1) Seven charts are Bullish.
(2) Seven charts are Neutral.
(3) No charts are Bearish

As of 03Feb17 - Bullish Bias
(1) Six charts are Bullish.
(2) Five charts are Neutral.
(3) Three charts are Bearish

As of 27Jan17 - Bullish
(1) Eight charts are Bullish.
(2) Six charts are Neutral.
(3) No charts are Bearish

As of 20Jan17 - Bearish Bias
(1) Four charts are Bullish.
(2) Four charts are Neutral.
(3) Six charts are Bearish


Thanks for your support (Following my Charts and Voting).

0000.3 - Methodology - Rules of Engagement

0000.3 - Methodology - Rules of Engagement

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Note: As a general rule, I personally invest only in ETFs that are (1) 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and (2) liquid (Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000).

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
0100 - 0190 Weekly Sector Charts (Page 3)
0200 - 0440 Market Strength Assessment (Page 4)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 15)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 21)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 47)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 47)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 47)

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Thanks very much for Follows and Votes!

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs- Long Term (Monthly): Turning Up- 17Feb17

0001 - Question: What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index. Thanks for your continued support!

17Feb17 - 4rth Month of Rising Prices and a developing Bullish Trend. February sprints to 3.17% gain.
(1) - Neutral: PMO(35,20,10) is ever so close to a Bullish cross.
(2) - Plus: Slow Stochastic signal is Overbought.
(3) - Plus: Williams %R signal is Overbought.
(4) - Plus: StochRSI signal is Overbought.

10Feb17 - In the 1st 10 days February is off to a strong start, up 1.63%.
(1) - Neutral: PMO(35,20,10) is very close to a Bullish cross.
(2) - Plus: Slow Stochastic signal is Overbought.
(3) - Plus: Williams %R signal is Overbought.
(4) - Plus: StochRSI signal is Overbought.

31Jan17 - January 2017 backed off its high but nevertheless recorded a monthly price increase of 1.79%.
(1) - Neutral: The Bearish signal given by PMO(35,20,10) is almost gone.
(2) - Plus: Slow Stochastic signal continues Overbought.
(3) - Plus: Williams %R signal continues Overbought.
(4) - Plus: StochRSI signal continues Overbought.

27Jan17 - January 2017 all but certain to record rising prices.
(1) - Neutral: The Bearish signal given by PMO(35,20,10) is almost gone.
(2) - Plus: Slow Stochastic signal continues Overbought.
(3) - Plus: Williams %R signal continues Overbought.
(4) - Plus: StochRSI signal continues Overbought.

Thanks very much for your continued support!

0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 3 Years Weekly- Indicators Support Rally- 17Feb17

0002 - Question: What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?

17Feb17 - S&P 500 Bullish Weekly Indicators support Rally.
(1) Plus: RSI(14) is Overbought.
(2) Plus: MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX are all Bullish.
(3) Plus: AROON is Bullish.
(4) Plus: Full Stochastics continues Overbought.
(5) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues to look BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA).
(6) Plus: ADX(14) is above 20 and rising - signaling a developing (Up) Trend.

10Feb17 - S&P 500 Weekly Indicators continue to provide positive signals.
(1) Plus: RSI(14) is well above 50 (Bullish) and is close to Overbought.
(2) Plus: MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX are all Bullish.
(3) Plus: AROON is Bullish.
(4) Plus: Full Stochastics continues Overbought.
(5) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues to look BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA).
(6) Plus: ADX(14) is close to 20 but it is rising - signaling a developing (Up) Trend.

03Feb17 - Rally: S&P 500 Weekly Indicators continue to provide positive signals.
(1) Plus: RSI(14) continues above 50 (Bullish) and is moving higher.
(2) Plus: MACD, PPO, TSI, and TRIX continue to look Bullish.
(3) Plus: AROON is Bullish.
(4) Plus: Full Stochastics continues Overbought.
(5) Plus: The 'Long Term' Trend continues to look BULLISH (13 Week EMA ABOVE 34 Week EMA).
(6) Plus: ADX(14) below 20 but rising - signals a developing (Up) Trend.

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Short Term Picture- RSI: Overbought- Bull as of 17Feb17

0003 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Month Daily. Please vote. Thanks very much for your support!

17Feb17 - Bullish Picture.
(1) Plus: RSI(14) is Overbought.
(2) Plus: Indicators MACD, TRIX, and PMO have achieved Bullish cross-overs.
(3) Plus: Full Stochastics and Slow Stochastics are Overbought.
(4) Plus: ROC is above 0.
(5) Plus: Chaikin Oscillator continues to rise, signaling more Buying pressure outstrips Selling pressure.
(6) Plus: MFI is rising.
(7) Plus: The Medium Term Trend (EMA 13 over EMA 34) continues Bullish.
(8) Plus: Signal of Vortex Indicator (VTX) is Bullish

10Feb17 - Bullish Picture.
(1) Plus: RSI(14) is Bullish (above 50) and very close to Overbought.
(2) Neutral: Indicators MACD, TRIX, and PMO are very close to Bullish cross-overs.
(3) Plus: Full Stochastics and Slow Stochastics are Overbought but have reversed direction.
(4) Plus: ROC is above 0 and rising.
(5) Plus: Chaikin Oscillator continues to rise, signaling more Buying than Selling pressure.
(6) Neutral: MFI continues quite flat.
(7) Plus: The Medium Term Trend (EMA 13 over EMA 34) continues Bullish.
(8) Plus: Vortex Indicator (VTX) signal is Bullish

03Feb17 - Mixed Picture.
(1) Plus: RSI(14) is Bullish (above 50) and rising.
(2) Neutral: Disregard Indicators MACD, TRIX, and PMO because VTX signals no Trend.
(3) Neutral: Full Stochastics and Slow Stochastics fell from Overbought but have reversed direction.
(4) Plus: ROC is above 0 and rising.
(5) Plus: Chaikin Oscillator continues to rise, signaling more Buying than Selling pressure.
(6) Neutral: MFI is moving sideways.
(7) Plus: The Medium Term Trend (EMA 13 over EMA 34) continues Bullish.
(8) Neutral: Vortex Indicator (VTX) signals no Trend

0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Hyperbolic Rate of Increase Cannot Continue- 17Feb17

0004 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Years Daily - Please continue to cast your Votes of Support. Thanks very much!

17Feb17 - The S&P 500 throws off Bullish signals and continues to set new records.
(1) Plus: RSI EMA(20) is above 50 (Bullish) and is rising.
(2) Plus: MACD, TSI, and TRIX have crossed Bullish.
(3) Plus: Both SLOPE EMA(20) and ROC EMA(20) are rising.
(4) Plus: Slow Stochastic is above 80 (Overbought).
(5) Plus: ADX signals a Bullish Trend.
(6) Plus: Volume weighted MFI is rising.

10Feb17 - The S&P 500 is setting new records and giving off more Bullish signals.
(1) Plus: RSI EMA(20) is above 50 (Bullish) and slowly beginning to rise.
(2) Neutral: MACD, TSI, and TRIX are close to crossing Bullish.
(3) Plus: Both SLOPE EMA(20) and ROC EMA(20) are slowly beginning to rise.
(4) Plus: Slow Stochastic popped back above 80 (Overbought).
(5) Neutral: ADX signals are beginning to rise.
(6) Neutral: Volume weighted MFI is beginning to rise.

03Feb17 - Although the S&P 500 is close to 2300, it does not exhibit much of a Trend.
(1) Neutral: RSI EMA(20) is above 50 (Bullish) but slowly drifting lower.
(2) Neutral: Disregard MACD, TSI, and TRIX because ADX signals there is no Trend.
(3) Neutral: Both SLOPE EMA(20) and ROC EMA(20) are very flat.
(4) Minus: Slow Stochastic fell below 80 and is no longer Overbought.
(5) Minus: ADX signals that market is not in a Trend.
(6) Neutral: Volume weighted MFI is flat.

27Jan17 - The S&P 500 jumped changing the tone of technical indicators.
(1) Plus: RSI EMA(20) is slowly drifting higher.
(2) Plus: MACD, TSI, and TRIX are moving higher.
(3) Plus: Both SLOPE EMA(20) and ROC EMA(20) are above 0 and ever so slowly rising.
(4) Plus: Slow Stochastic is Overbought (above 80).
(5) Neutral: Volume weighted MFI has steadied.

Note - Overbought is the same as saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is the same as

0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Strong Rally as of 17Feb17

0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day. Thanks very much for Following and for your Votes!

17Feb17 - Indicators are Bullish and strengthening:
(1) Plus: RSI(14) is Overbought and rising.
(2) Plus: MACD(12,26,9) Histogram signal is above zero.
(3) Plus: SLOPE is above 0 (Bullish) and rising.
(4) Plus: Both Full Stochastics and Slow Stochastics are once again Overbought.
(5) Plus: ROC (Rate of Change) is Bullish (above 0) and rising.
(6) Plus: S&P 500 'EMA Medium Term Trend' continues Bullish: EMA(13) is above EMA(34).
(7) Plus: Vortex shows an Up Trend has developed and is growing stronger.

10Feb17 - Rally: Indicators are Bullish or becoming Bullish and strengthening:
(1) Plus: RSI(14) is above 0 and rising.
(2) Plus: MACD(12,26,9) Histogram signal is above zero.
(3) Plus: SLOPE is above 0 (Bullish) and rising.
(4) Plus: Both Full Stochastics and Slow Stochastics are once again Overbought.
(5) Plus: ROC (Rate of Change) is Bullish (above 0) and rising.
(6) Plus: S&P 500 'EMA Medium Term Bullish Trend' continues: EMA(13) is above EMA(34).

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Rising Medium Term Trend: The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 13 Day (Green Line) is above the 34 Day (Red Line).

Signals: A Green Arrow is Bullish and a Red Arrow is Bearish.

MACD provides a fairly reliable indication of market direction. MACD crossovers generally signal when it is a good time to buy or sell.

CAUTION: MACD assumes that the market is trending. MACD is reliable when the market is in a Trend but can result in Whipsaws when the market is moving sideways.

Full Stochastic serves as an early warning indicator but is very sensitive and often there are false signals.
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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Month Daily- Visible Up Trend- 17Feb17

0006 - Proxy for the Market, the S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Months Daily - Thanks very much for your continued support (Votes and Follows).

17Feb17 - Per ADX(7) the S&P 500 is in a Short Term Up Trend.
(1) Plus: MACD(12,26,9) Histogram has crossed above 0.
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic is Overbought (over 80) and climbing.
(3) Plus: Continued 'EMA Medium Term' Bullish Trend (EMA 13 Day above EMA 34 Day).
(4) Plus: ADX(14) is above 20 and rising ==> Possible Developing 'ADX Medium Term' Trend.

10Feb17 - Per ADX(7), the S&P 500 has developed a Short Term (Up) Trend.
(1) Plus: MACD(12,26,9) Histogram has crossed above 0.
(2) Plus: Slow Stochastic is Overbought (over 80) and climbing.
(3) Plus: Continued 'EMA Medium Term' Bullish Trend (EMA 13 Day above EMA 34 Day).
(4) Neutral: ADX(14) is below 20 but it has begun to rise ==> Possible Developing 'ADX Medium Term' Trend.

03Feb17 - Per ADX(20), for the last 8 weeks, the S&P 500 shows little Trend.
(1) Neutral: MACD(12,26,9) Histogram is just barely below 0.
(2) Neutral: Slow Stochastic is below Overbought (over 80) but climbing.
(3) Plus: Medium Term Bullish Trend (EMA 13 Day above EMA 34 Day) continues.
(4) Neutral: ADX(20) is below 20 and drifting lower ==> No Trend.

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When the EMA 13 Day (Green line) is above the EMA 34 Day (Red line), the Medium Term direction of the market is Up. For Medium Term investing the EMA 13 Day vs. the EMA 34 Day show when (the overall market is trending up and) it is probably OK to stay invested or when it is probably best to sell.

When the Medium Term of the market is Up, for relatively Short Term trading, I use the MACD and the Stochastics for Buy and Sell signals.
When the Medium Term of the market is Down, I watch and wait for the next 'Buying' opportunity.
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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 10 Day Hourly- Intraday Signs: Above CHANDLR: Bullish- 17Feb17

0007 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days

01Dec16 - Intraday - The price of the S&P 500 is under the Chandelier Exit, suggesting that a Downtrend has begun.

14Oct16 - Chart 5: A strongly rising market that began Thursday morning 13 October, appeared to continue into Friday 14 October, but in a disappointment optimism turned to pessimism as Friday gains eroded and Friday ended up roughly the same place it began.

07Sep16 - The S&P 500 is managing to stay above the CHANDLR indicator.

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FYI: When the market price is above the Chandelier Exit (CHANDLR) it suggests an Uptrend. Conversely, when the market price is under the Chandelier Exit, it suggests a Downtrend.

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