Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 307 Votes: 231 Years Member: 9 Last Update: 30 July 2015, 13:10 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

27Jul15 - Bearish: S&P 500 Intermediate Trend crossover imminent- Bearish: S&P 500 Short Term MACD crossover,
24Jul15 - Broad sell-off. Dow below 200 Day Moving Average. Few winners save Short Sellers.
21Jul15 - Some earnings and prospects going forward disappoint investors and market teeters.
17Jul15 - Disappointing fade to RED by Small Caps. May spell trouble. Gold and fossil fuel shares continue to be shunned by investors


SHORT TERM (Days ): 24Jul15 - Whiplash - Chart 0001 shows the S&P 500 well below the 2 Year Lower Trend Line. Chart 0002 shows the S&P 500 Intermediate Trend in peril and MACD about to cross to Bearish
MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 24Jul15 - The Weekly Volume Momentum Oscillator Chart (0026) is mildly Bearish. Meanwhile the Weekly S&P 500 Chart (0006), shows the Large Caps to be flat to down.
LONG TERM (Months): 24Jul15 - The S&P 500 Monthly Chart (0007) continues to show the trajectory of the Large Cap market thus far in 2015 to be flat.

Non-Leveraged ETFs whose SCTR scores are above 70 are Rated because these ETFs have consistently moved higher (been Winners). Note that Ratings are also provided for Leveraged ETFs
but exercise extreme caution with these because they are frequently subject to very large moves and may be based on very poorly performing underlying markets.

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Less

0000 Guesswork Gone- Winners/Losers Summary Updates as of 24Jul15

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I never Buy any ETF whose SCTR is below 70 and especially avoid like the plague any ETF whose SCTR is below 30. As a general rule, I rate only those ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 14)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 22)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 29)
5000 - 5999 Day Trade - Intraday Charts. (Page 34)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 44)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 45)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 45)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 46)

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0000.1 - Guesswork Gone - Methodology -

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ETFs are rated from Weakest to Strongest based upon whether they are in a Trend and the strength of that Trend.

ETFs are considered trendless if their ADX Line is below 20 and are trending if their ADX Line is 20 or above and rising.
=============================================================================
Bull shares that are rising are given even numbers. Bull shares that are falling are given odd numbers.

BULL

===================== RISING ==== FALLING

STRONGEST BULL ======= 8 ======== 7
======================= 6 ======== 5
======================= 4 ======== 3
WEAKEST BULL ========= 2 ======== 1
===============================================================================
Bear shares that are falling are given even numbers. Bear shares that are rising are given odd numbers.

BEAR

==================== FALLING ===== RISING

MOST BEARISH ======== -8 ========= -7
===================== -6 ========= -5
===================== -4 ========= -3
LEAST BEARISH ======= -2 ========= -1


Thanks very much to Herb for contributing the above!

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Well Below Lower 2 Yr Trendline- Bear: Weakest (-3) 29July15

0001 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Yr Day - Please Follow and please Vote. Thanks very much!
24Jul15 - Poor earnings put the S&P 500 into a tailspin. Indicators are pointing down and are either already Bearish or are turning Bearish.
15Jul15 - Bullish MACD Crossover
10Jul15 - Staying in the channel, the S&P 500 could move back above 2100 in the next few days. Market Signals suggest talks with Greece may continue to prove difficult but won't fail, China won't collapse, and Earnings may also help.

Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day Intermed. Term: Neutral- Short Term: Bear: Weakest (-3) 29July15

0002 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Mo Day - Close Look - Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much!
27Jul15 - Bearish: Intermediate Trend crossover - Bearish: Short Term MACD crossover,
24Jul15 - The S&P 500 appears to be in free fall, with Friday the worst day of a bad week. Last week's rosy picture is but a memory.
17Jul15 - Bullish: The Intermediate Trend has crossed to Bullish and MACD has crossed to Bullish
10Jul15 - Bearish: The Intermediate Trend continues to be Bearish. Bullish: The OBV (On Balance Volume) poked its head above the short duration downward channel. Per ADX(14), the S&P 500 is in a Downward Trend.

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0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Bearish MACD Crossover- Bear: Weakest (-3) 29July15

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Month Day
24Jul15 - Some weaker than expected earnings disappointed investors. Indicators are bearish or turning so.
17Jul15 - Barring some unforeseen setback, prices seem likely to rise further. Slight hesitancy on Friday (Japanese Candlestick Spinning Top). Indicators do not yet suggest that the market is Overbought.
15Jul15 - Bullish MACD Crossover

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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Above 100 Day MA- Bear: Weakest (-3) 29July15

0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Mo Day - Support Zones
24Jul15 - Earnings turned South and so did the market. Indicators have all started to point down.
17Jul15 - The dramatic rise in Large Cap stock prices suggests that investors are pleased by earnings and world events. Bodes well for further gains.

Note: Being 'Overbought' implies prices have risen quickly while 'Oversold' implies prices have fallen quickly.

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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day 1 Hr- Above CHANDLR (Bullish)- Bear: Weakest (-3) 29July15

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
10Jun15 - 10 Day Chart of the S&P 500 - Bullish: S&P 500 is above the CHANDLR

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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Week- Medium Term- Droop- Edging Down (-1) 24Jul15

0006 What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?
17Jul15 - Medium Term (Weekly): On the week the S&P 500 (Large Cap) market lost all of last weeks gains.

Bullish but less so: The 'Medium Term' Trend continues Bullish (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) continues above the 34 Week EMA).

Bearish: Indicators MACD, PPO, TRIX, and TSI continue to trace Bearish patterns.
The BBW (Bollinger Band Width) continues to be narrow. A narrow BBW often occurs during a sideways period.
Finally ADX(14) at 13.54 shows the S&P 500 continues to be technically Trendless.

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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Month- Long Term- Flat- Neutral (0) 24Jul15

0007 - What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index
24Jul15 - The Long Term direction of the S&P 500 continues to look fairly flat. The Bearish signal given by the Price Momentum Oscillator continues to be a cause for concern, however StochRSI is quite Oversold.

The Bollinger Band Width remains well below 20 which reflects a lack of volatility.
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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Year Chart- Short Term Trend- Bear: Weakest (-3) 29July15

0008 - Two year Chart of the S&P 500 (the market).
24Jul15 - The S&P 500 is well below the lower line of the Long Term Trend (Blue) and the Lower Line of the Andrew's Pitchfork (Green).
Indicators MACD, TSI, and TRIX have peaked and are falling toward Bearish crossovers.
ADX(14) is below 20 which suggests that the Market is Trendless.

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