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Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 310 Votes: 260 Years Member: 8 Last Update: 31 July 2014, 10:46 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

30Jul14 - There are very very few ETFs whose Market Strength is outstanding. Not a good sign...
29Jul14 - There are a fairly large number of ETFs in a Bollinger Band Width 'Squeeze' Watch out because when this coiled spring is released things could get bloody.
25Jul14 - I measure Market Strength as very weak; of all ETFs, some but not many are doing well.

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SHORT TERM (Days ): 25Jul14 - Spinning Top (July 24rth) and large drop (July 25th) gives one pause. August and September are usually difficult. (Chart 0003)
MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 25Jul14 - The week resulted in a Spinning Top candle. After hitting a new all time high, by the end of the week close the S&P 500 was no higher than where it was 4 weeks prior. (Chart 0006)
LONG TERM (Months ): 25Jul14 - With one week left in the month, the monthly change is positive and Long Term the market looks to be in good health. (Chart 0007)

30Jul14: Market Strength: Very Weak (0-15.9%) - Of all Non-leveraged Liquid ETFs, 6.5% are 'Bull: Strongest'
29Jul14: Market Strength: Very Weak (0-15.9%) - Of all Non-leveraged Liquid ETFs, 14.1% are 'Bull: Strongest'
28Jul14: Market Strength: Weak (16.0-35.9%) - Of all Non-leveraged Liquid ETFs, 16.2% are 'Bull: Strongest'

James wrote:
'It is your site and commentary that has taken me to a different level of understanding how to trade. Your organizational skills and selection of indicators have
really helped me understand how to time the market.'

Less

0000 - Guesswork Gone - Bullish/Bearish Ratings - Partial Updates - 30Jul14

As a general rule, I try to chart only those ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 13)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 19)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 23)
5000 - 5999 Day Trade - Intraday Charts. (Page 28)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 38)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 39)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 40)

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0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Squeeze- Turning Bearish (-2) 31Jul14

0001 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Yr Day
28Jul14 - Squeeze and lack of any Trend show market to be consolidating (drifting sideways).
01Jul14 - Bollinger Band Width is narrow and a 'Squeeze' condition is close. This says that market change has slowed.

Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen sharply

From Bob: 'While I have traded for years using the discipline of charts,
your site has added greater precision and greater relevance to my trading process..
I am really indebted to you and very much appreciate the free service you provide.'

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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day- Close Look- Turning Bearish (-2) 31Jul14

0002 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Mo Day - Close Look
Note: Overbought implies quickly rising prices while Oversold implies quickly falling prices

03Jul14 - Strong economic reports propel the market upward.
30Jun14 - Spinning Top candlestick may precede a downside leg.

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0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Turning Bearish (-2) 31Jul14

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day
25Jul14 - Spinning Top (July 24rth) and large drop (July 25th) gives one pause. August and September are usually difficult.
13Jun14 - Easing tensions abroad buoyed buyers spirits and lifted prices; an 'inside day' candlestick signals possible end to move down.
12Jun14 - Just as the ADX(14) printed a 'Trend Established' reading, poor reports on the economy seem to have put the market surge on Pause.
07Apr14 - Lesson learned - wait for established Trend (ADX > 25) before placing Buy orders

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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Turning Bearish (-2) 31Jul14

0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Mo Day - Support Zones

Note: Overbought implies quickly rising prices while Oversold implies quickly falling prices

23May14 - Last 5 out of 6 Days have been Up. Green shoots in evidence but too early to tell if the rally is for real.
11Apr14 - The General Trend of the last 6 months looks flat to down.

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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day 1 Hr -Intraday-

S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
22Jul14 - Intraday roller coaster continues...
07Apr14 @ 2:05 - 10 relentless hours of falling prices!

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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Week - Medium Term: Bull: Stronger (6) 25Jul14

What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?
21Jul14 - AROON show weakness.

James wrote:
'I cannot begin to thank you enough for sharing your work. I've been trading for four years. Most of my understanding of technical analysis has come from books and Stockcharts.com. About a month ago I began to realize your work and your uncanny ability to assess market direction.
It is your site and commentary that has taken me to a different level of understanding how to trade. Your organizational skills and selection of indicators have really help me understand how to time the market.'

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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Mo - Long Term: Bull: Strongest (8) 25Jul14

0007 - What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index
30Jun14 - June is the 5th straight month of rising prices.

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thank you'

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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day -Trend Lines- Long Term Trend Maintained - 25Jul14

0008 - Chart of the S&P 500 (the market) compared to the 2 Year Daily Raff Regression Trend Lines drawn to the March 2014 peak...

From a reader: 'I love your work . Your charts help me a lot to understand the market direction. I like the
comments on the charts. Thank you'

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0009 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -50 & 100 Day MA- Turning Bearish (-2) 31Jul14

0009 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 50 & 100 Day Moving Average
03Jul14 - Strong economic reports suggest the market anticipates healthy earnings.

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