Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 320 Votes: 283 Years Member: 8 Last Update: 24 October 2014, 22:59 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

21Oct14 - Earnings and positive economic reports supportive of better prices - Market turning Bullish (Chart 0002) (Please Follow & Vote!)
17Oct14 - The S&P 500 is within the Weekly Price by Volume Support Zone which runs from 1830 to 1890. (Chart 7000)
13Oct14 - The RSI and Stochastics have dropped to Oversold and the steep rate of decline (SLOPE) looks unsustainable. These suggest the decline may end soon. (Chart 0003)

SHORT TERM (Days ): 17Oct14 - The rate of prices increase of the last few years may be over. Slower growth rate going forward more likely. (Chart 0008)
MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 17Oct14 - The 4rth week of falling prices but the Support area appears to have held.. (Chart 0006)
LONG TERM (Months): 17Oct14 - The Long Term S&P 500 chart (Chart 0007) remains Bullish; StochRSI appears quite Oversold reading 0.00.

17Oct14: Market Strength: Very Weak (0.0-15.9%) - Of all Non-leveraged Liquid ETFs, 7.2% are 'Bull: Strongest'
10Oct14: Market Strength: Very Weak (0.0-15.9%) - Of all Non-leveraged Liquid ETFs, 6.8% are 'Bull: Strongest'
03Oct14: Market Strength: Very Weak (0.0-15.9%) - Of all Non-leveraged Liquid ETFs, 4.5% are 'Bull: Strongest'

James wrote:
'It is your site and commentary that has taken me to a different level of understanding how to trade. Your organizational skills and selection of indicators have
really helped me understand how to time the market.'
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Less

0000 - Guesswork Gone - Bullish/Bearish Ratings - End of Week Updates in Progress as of 24Oct14

Please Vote. Thanks.
As a general rule, I try to chart only those ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 13)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 19)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 23)
5000 - 5999 Day Trade - Intraday Charts. (Page 28)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 38)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 39)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 40)

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0000.1 - Guesswork Gone - Methodology -

ETFs are rated from Weakest to Strongest based largely upon whether they are in a Trend and the strength of that Trend.
ETFs are considered trendless if their ADX Line is below 20 and are trending if their ADX Line is 20 or above and rising.
=============================================================================
Bull shares that are rising are given even numbers. Bull shares that are falling are given odd numbers.

BULL

===================== RISING ==== FALLING

STRONGEST BULL ======= 8 ======== 7
======================= 6 ======== 5
======================= 4 ======== 3
WEAKEST BULL ========= 2 ======== 1
===============================================================================
Bear shares that are falling are given even numbers. Bear shares that are rising are given odd numbers.

BEAR

==================== FALLING ===== RISING

MOST BEARISH ======== -8 ========= -7
===================== -6 ========= -5
===================== -4 ========= -3
LEAST BEARISH ======= -2 ========= -1


Thanks very much to Herb for contributing the above!

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Below Trend Line- Turning Bullish (2) 24Oct14

0001 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Yr Day
12Sep14 - Indicators are now already Bearish or will cross to Bearish very soon.
11Aug14 - Indicators are moving in a Bullish direction as the market moves strongly higher.

Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

From Bob: 'While I have traded for years using the discipline of charts, your site has added greater precision and greater relevance to my trading process..
I am really indebted to you and very much appreciate the free service you provide.'

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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day- Close Look- Turning Bullish (2) 24Oct14

0002 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Mo Day - Close Look
Note: Overbought implies quickly rising prices while Oversold implies quickly falling prices

17Sep14 - The S&P 500 (and the market in general) has been moving mostly sideways. This is evidenced by the fact that the Bollinger Band Width has become relatively narrow. This condition is termed a 'Squeeze' and is resolved when prices either start to rise or start to fall.

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0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Turning Bullish (2) 24Oct14

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day
13Oct14 - The RSI and Stochastics are Oversold and steep rate of decline (SLOPE) is unsustainable. These suggest the decline may end soon.

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'Great simple tech. indicators..heck yah you got my vote....Thanks for the hard work..'

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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Corrective Decline Done- Turning Bullish (2) 24Oct14

0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Mo Day - Support Zones

Note: Overbought implies quickly rising prices while Oversold implies quickly falling prices

23May14 - Last 5 out of 6 Days have been Up. Green shoots in evidence but too early to tell if the rally is for real.
11Apr14 - The General Trend of the last 6 months looks flat to down.

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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day 1 Hr -Intraday-

S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
22Jul14 - Intraday roller coaster continues...
07Apr14 @ 2:05 - 10 relentless hours of falling prices!

Mike wrote:
'I really like your straight forward charts and the indicators that you use. Also , how you describe on what to expect from the speed & movement of the different indicators.'

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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Week- Medium Term: Support Holding- Bull: Growing Weaker (5) 17Oct14

0006 What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?
10Oct14 - A very bad week on heavy volume. The S&P 500 is near the bottom of the Bollinger Band and is also not far from a Support area.

James wrote:
'I cannot begin to thank you enough for sharing your work. I've been trading for four years. Most of my understanding of technical analysis has come from books and Stockcharts.com. About a month ago I began to realize your work and your uncanny ability to assess market direction.
It is your site and commentary that has taken me to a different level of understanding how to trade. Your organizational skills and selection of indicators have really help me understand how to time the market.'

StockCharts Members please 'FOLLOW' and please 'VOTE' each and every day. Thanks very much!

0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Mo- Long Term: Bull: Topping (7) 17Oct14

0007 - What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index
10Oct14 - StochRSI is in Oversold territory

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thank you'

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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Long Term Trend Lines- At Lower Trend Line- 24Oct14

0008 - Chart of the S&P 500 (the market) compared to the 2 Year Daily Raff Regression Trend Lines drawn to the March 2014 peak...

From a reader: 'I love your work . Your charts help me a lot to understand the market direction. I like the
comments on the charts. Thank you'

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