Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 309 Votes: 238 Years Member: 9 Last Update: 3 July 2015, 18:13 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

04Jul15 - Happy Independence Day!!!
26Jun15 - A cautionary tale: On Chart 0001, the S&P 500 is below the Lower Trend Line for the 3rd time. The ADX(14) is below 20 signaling that the S&P 500 isn't trending but indicators point down. It is impossible to know whether the market is in an Extended Consolidation that will end well or is the next move going to be a long anticipated but never realized 10% Correction.

SHORT TERM (Days ): 26Jun15 - The S&P 500 is near the top of the channel that it has been following since March. The Bollinger Band Width has narrowed even more which is often seen near the end of a sideways move. The prolonged sideways movement of the market could soon end and it is more likely that the change will be to lower prices.
MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 26Jun15 - Chart 0026, Weekly Volume Momentum Oscillator was barely positive; meanwhile the Weekly S&P 500 Chart (0006), shows the S&P 500 hitting resistance and down for the week.
LONG TERM (Months): 26Jun15 - The S&P 500 Monthly Chart (0007) shows the Long Term direction of the market flat to down. In the first 6 months of the year the S&P 500 is up only six tenths of one percent.

Non-Leveraged ETFs whose SCTR scores are above 70 are Rated because these ETFs have consistently moved higher (been Winners). Note that Ratings are also provided for Leveraged ETFs
but exercise extreme caution with these because they are frequently subject to very large moves and may be based on very poorly performing underlying markets.

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Less

0000 Guesswork Gone- Winners/Losers Summary Updates as of 02Jul15

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I never Buy any ETF whose SCTR is below 70 and especially avoid like the plague any ETF whose SCTR is below 30. As a general rule, I rate only those ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 13)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 19)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 23)
5000 - 5999 Day Trade - Intraday Charts. (Page 28)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 38)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 39)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 40)

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0000.1 - Guesswork Gone - Methodology -

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ETFs are rated from Weakest to Strongest based upon whether they are in a Trend and the strength of that Trend.

ETFs are considered trendless if their ADX Line is below 20 and are trending if their ADX Line is 20 or above and rising.
=============================================================================
Bull shares that are rising are given even numbers. Bull shares that are falling are given odd numbers.

BULL

===================== RISING ==== FALLING

STRONGEST BULL ======= 8 ======== 7
======================= 6 ======== 5
======================= 4 ======== 3
WEAKEST BULL ========= 2 ======== 1
===============================================================================
Bear shares that are falling are given even numbers. Bear shares that are rising are given odd numbers.

BEAR

==================== FALLING ===== RISING

MOST BEARISH ======== -8 ========= -7
===================== -6 ========= -5
===================== -4 ========= -3
LEAST BEARISH ======= -2 ========= -1


Thanks very much to Herb for contributing the above!

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Well Below Lower 2 Yr Trendline- Bear: Strong (-4) 02Jul15

0001 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Yr Day - Please Follow and please Vote. Thanks very much!
26Jun15 - A cautionary tale: The S&P 500 Large Caps are below the Lower Trend Line for the 3rd time. The ADX(14) is below 20 signaling that the Large Caps aren't trending but indicators point down. It is impossible to know whether the Large Caps are in an Extended Consolidation that will end well or will the next move be a long anticipated but never realized 10% Correction.
19Jun15 - The S&P 500 did well for three straight days this week before fading on Friday. It continues to flirt with the Lower Trend Line.

Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day- Intermed. Term: Bearish- Short Term: Bear: Strong (-4) 02Jul15

0002 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Mo Day - Close Look - Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much!
26Jun15 - The Intermediate Trend crossed back to Bullish however On Balance Volume fell below its channel and the MACD is fading suggesting falling prices ahead.
Note that per ADX(14), the S&P 500 is not trending.
19Jun15 - The Intermediate Trend is very close to crossing back to Bullish, although the Trend as measured by ADX(14) looks very weak. The MACD has crossed Bullish and is suggestive of rising prices going forward.

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0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Well Below 100 Day Moving Ave- Bear: Strong (-4) 02Jul15

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day
26Jun15 -S&P 500 prices fell sharply 2 days but only fell slightly on Friday. Bearish signs: RSI fell below 50. The Stochastics are pointing down. The MACD is weakening.
Note that once again the ADX(14) signals no Trend.
19Jun15 -The S&P 500 was up for again for three straight days this week before falling back on Friday. RSI fell toward 50 but not below. Once again the Stochastics seem to have weathered the Friday storm and didn't change direction. The MACD crossed Bullish and the MACD Histogram continued its move up. The ADX(14) signals a Weak Trend.

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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Moving Up from Oversold- Bear: Strong (-4) 02Jul15

0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Mo Day - Support Zones
19Jun15 - The S&P 500 is oscillating within the channel that it has been following since March. The BBW is narrow which reflects the fact that prices changes have been relatively slight. The prolonged sideways movement of the market could end at any time. The likelihood is that the change will be to lower prices rather than to higher prices.

Note: Overbought implies quickly rising prices while Oversold implies quickly falling prices

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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day 1 Hr- Slightly Above CHANDLR (Neutral)- Bear: Strong (-4) 02Jul15

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
10Jun15 - 10 Day Chart of the S&P 500 - Bullish: S&P 500 is above the CHANDLR

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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Week- Medium Term- Edging Down (-1) 02Jul15

0006 What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?
19Jun15 Bearish: Indicators MACD, PPO, TRIX, and TSI continue tracing Bearish patterns. The BBW (Bollinger Band Width) has become narrow. A narrow BBW often occurs at the end of a sideways period.
In addition the Trend Indicator, (ADX(14), shows the S&P 500 to be technically trendless.

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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Mo- Long Term- Neutral (0) 02Jul15

0007 - What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index
19Jun15 - The Long Term direction of the market looks more and more uncertain. Note: the PMO shows the Long Term direction of the market rolling to the downside.

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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Year Chart- Short Term Trend- Bear: Strong (-4) 02Jul15

0008 - Two year Chart of the S&P 500 (the market).
05Jun15 - The S&P 500 has moved below the lower line of the Pennant pattern it has been within since March. Trend Indicators are beginning to trace less shallow patterns, consistent with a falling market. Ominously the ADX(14) is growing stronger that suggests the downward pattern may be becoming a Trend

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