Analysis of Market Direction ... Timing is everything!

Marc Slavin Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 300 Followers Rank: 6 Followers: 306 Votes: 269 Years Member: 9 Last Update: 5 March 2015, 12:51 Categories: Trend Analysis
ETFs
Swing Trading

04Mar15 - Corrective pattern appears to be gaining traction. Defensive action warranted. Better to be safely on the sidelines in cash than watching your net worth diminish. Please Follow and Vote.
27Feb15 - The S&P 500 Weekly Chart (0007), reveals that the torrid pace of price improvement has not stopped entirely yet but it has slowed a lot.
20Feb15 - International markets showing positive signs: European bourses, Japan, and India stand out.
20Feb15 - Chart 0008 shows the S&P 500 Raff Regression Trend Line (in Black). Indicators remain positive with plenty of headroom on the upside.

SHORT TERM (Days ): 27Feb15 - Chart 0005: The S&P 500 has gone below the CHANDLR. Other early warning signals suggest caution, thin ice ahead.(Charts 0003, 0004).
MEDIUM TERM (Weeks): 27Feb15 - Storm Clouds on Horizon: Chart 0027 - Momentum slightly negative: Chart 0029: Decreasing number of S&P 500 stocks greater than 200 Day MA. Chart 9750: Advance/Decline % decreasing
LONG TERM (Months): 27Feb15 - The S&P 500 Monthly Chart (0007), shows the February advance at 5.49%. The Long Term trend of the market remains quite strong.

27Feb15: Proprietary Market Breadth Weekly Change: INCREASING - As of 27Feb15: 41.3% Prior weeks were 29.5%, 13.3%, 11.1%, 16.6%, 21.3%, 14.7%, 11.4%, 19.1%

James wrote:
'It is your site and commentary that has taken me to a different level of understanding how to trade. Your organizational skills and selection of indicators have
really helped me understand how to time the market.'

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Less

0000 Guesswork Gone- Bullish/Bearish Ratings- Partial Rating Updates as of 05Mar15

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As a general rule, I try to chart only those ETFs whose performance is 'better than average' (Stock Charts Technical Rank > 70)
and whose Average Daily Volume exceeds 300,000.

Table of Contents:
0000 - 0099 General Market Direction (Page 1)
1000 - 1999 USA (Page 5)
2000 - 2999 International (Page 13)
3000 - 3999 Leveraged (Page 19)
4000 - 4999 Metals, Oil & Gas, Commodities, and Bonds (Page 23)
5000 - 5999 Day Trade - Intraday Charts. (Page 28)
6000 - 6999 Short Term - Daily (Page 37)
7000 - 7999 Medium Term - Weekly (Page 38)
8000 - 8999 Long Term - Monthly (Page 39)
9000 - 9999 FYI - Performance Comparisons, Bullish Percent, and General Interest. (Page 40)

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0000.1 - Guesswork Gone - Methodology -

ETFs are rated from Weakest to Strongest based largely upon whether they are in a Trend and the strength of that Trend.
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ETFs are considered trendless if their ADX Line is below 20 and are trending if their ADX Line is 20 or above and rising.
=============================================================================
Bull shares that are rising are given even numbers. Bull shares that are falling are given odd numbers.

BULL

===================== RISING ==== FALLING

STRONGEST BULL ======= 8 ======== 7
======================= 6 ======== 5
======================= 4 ======== 3
WEAKEST BULL ========= 2 ======== 1
===============================================================================
Bear shares that are falling are given even numbers. Bear shares that are rising are given odd numbers.

BEAR

==================== FALLING ===== RISING

MOST BEARISH ======== -8 ========= -7
===================== -6 ========= -5
===================== -4 ========= -3
LEAST BEARISH ======= -2 ========= -1


Thanks very much to Herb for contributing the above!

0001 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Bull: Weakest (3) 27Feb15

0001 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Yr Day - Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much!
20Feb15 - Bullish signals are evident: RSI(14) isn't Overbought. ADX(14) is turning up suggesting that the Trend, althought weak is strengthening.
13Feb15 - Intermediate Term signal has returned to Bullish (EMA 13 Day is above 34 Day EMA). There are Green Arrows on the Short Term Indicators. Trend: ADX(7) is rising, ADX(14) appears to be turning.
Note - Overbought is equivalent to saying that prices have risen (or are rising) sharply and Oversold is equivalent to saying that prices have fallen (or are falling) sharply.

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0002 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Mo Day- Intermediate Trend: Bullish- Edging Down (-1) 04Mar15

0002 - S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX) - 2 Mo Day - Close Look - Please Follow and Vote. Thanks very much!
20Feb15 - The Bull swing has been in progress for 3 weeks, and thus far, seems likely to have more upside.
13Feb15 - The Large Cap Short Term indicators are all positive, and the Intermediate Term EMA 13 Day vs EMA 34 Day has gone positive as well. For the 1st time in 2 months a trend (upward) may be developing.
06Feb15 - Intermediate Trend has changed to Bullish - The weekly swing pattern has continued. Now looking at some resistance in the 2060 to 2070 area.
30Jan15 - Another week, another swing. The Intermediate Trend is more Bearish than it was. If the market holds, then this period is a Consolidation. If it doesn't hold, then a Correction (down 10% or more) seems likely. 23Jan15 - Another week, another swing. The overall trend strength has deteriorated and is now weak, suggesting that the market is in a 110+ point trading range.

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0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Edging Down (-1) 04Mar15

0003 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day
06Feb15 - Another swing, this one upward. The good news is that indicators now look Bullish but the bad news is that the Trend (ADX(14) is very weak and so the indicators have to be taken with a grain of salt. More importantly, on a longer time scale it appears as though the market is carving out a symmetric triangle which is a continuation pattern.
30Jan15 - Replay of 2 weeks ago: The downward trend appears to be gaining strength. The S&P 500 is in an area of support but a test of the 200 day MA may await.
23Jan15 - MACD, Stochastics, RSI, SLOPE, and FORCE suggest rising prices should continue, but the weak trend (ADX(14)), like a flag in a weak breeze, tells us to put little weight on the indicators.
15Jan15 - The downward trend is gaining strength. The S&P 500 is in an area of support but a test of the 200 day MA may await.
09Jan15 - An inconsistent and VOLATILE week left the S&P 500 at its 50 Day Moving Average. RSI(5) bounded from Oversold and so did the Slow Stochastics, however the weak close on Friday gives one pause.

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0004 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Mo Day- Edging Down (-1) 04Mar15

0004 - S&P 500 Large Caps ($SPX) - 6 Mo Day - Support Zones
20Feb15 - The only signal that gives me pause is the Chaiken Oscillator which is at the top of its Bollinger Band. Otherwise, I see nothing untoward on this Chart.
13Feb15 - The Symmetric Pattern appears to have been convincingly breached to the upside. RSI(14) is not Overbought which bodes well. Stochastics, although Overbought can remain so for some time. Since the S&P 500 is at the top of the Bollinger Band, some backing and filling seems likely.

Note: Overbought implies quickly rising prices while Oversold implies quickly falling prices

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0005 - S&P 500 ($SPX) -10 Day 1 Hr- Below Chandlr (Bearish)- Edging Down (-1) 04Mar15

0005 - S&P 500 Intraday Chart - An intraday look (under the hood) for the last 10 Days
26Jan15 - 10 Day Chart of the S&P 500 - the Average Directional Index (ADX) and the Bollinger Bands narrowing signals that the trend is getting very weak, suggests that the market has been moving mainly sideways.

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0006 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 18 Mo Week- Medium Term: Bull: Strong (4) 27Feb15

0006 What is the Medium Term (Weekly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index?
13Feb15 - AROON signal down was fleeting. AROON is back to a Bullish reading.
30Jan15 - Medium Term (Weekly): The S&P 500 Large Caps have moved into a support zone. If the S&P 500 doesn't hold support, a test well below 1900 seems likely.
The 'Medium Term' Trend continues Bullish (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) continues well above the 34 Week EMA)
'Shorter Term' Trend Indicators MACD, PPO, TRIX, and TSI are Bearish and the downward slope has steepened, which isn't a good sign.
The 'Medium Term' Trend continues Bullish (13 Week EMA (Exponential Moving Average) remains well above the 34 Week EMA)

'Shorter Term' Trend Indicators MACD, PPO, TRIX, and TSI remain Bearish but in each case, the slope of the trend line is close to horizontal.

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It is your site and commentary that has taken me to a different level of understanding how to trade. Your organizational skills and selection of indicators have really help me understand how to time the market.'

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0007 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 6 Yrs Mo- Long Term- Bull: Strongest (8) 27Feb15

0007 - What is the Long Term (Monthly) Trend of the S&P 500 Index

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0008 - S&P 500 ($SPX) 2 Yr Day- Long Term Trend Lines- Edging Down (-1) 04Mar15

0008 - Chart of the S&P 500 (the market) compared to the 2 Year Daily Raff Regression Trend Lines drawn to the mid February peak.
20Feb15 - Chart 0008 shows the S&P 500 Raff Regression Trend Line (in Black). Indicators remain positive with plenty of headroom on the upside.
30Jan15 - Another week, another swing. Market oscillations require standing away from the painting to see the picture. Indicators all suggest lower prices are likely.
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