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- Last Update: 20 October 2018, 18:07
The first two pages contain charts that measure perceptions of the overall markets. The main equity indexes (S&P500/ Dow Industrials/ Nasdaq) and key measures of bond markets, the TED Spread, Gold, Currencies, and special ratio charts in the special 'Ace way' that makes things clear and simple to see.
The 10 major Sector SPDR ETFs are tracked with Ace's favorite trend indicators and oscillators! If one understands the trends and cycles of these charts, then they will have a very good grasp of the major rotations of the smart money traders. These charts show up on Page 19 of my Chart List and their symbols begin with the letter 'X'.
The second new feature is a hand-picked selection of the IBD 50 stocks. I use many of my favored indicators on these DAILY charts, including the dynamic 13. 50, 100 and 200 MA lines. (IBD usually shows WEEKLY charts-- you can see DAILY here!) I show the proper bases on these charts as base theory is critical in the IBD 50 stock selection and CANSLIM systems. Of course, IBD 50 and CANSLIM are successful trading systems developed by Investor's Business Daily. These charts start on Page 10. I am not associated or affiliated with the IBD in any way and my charts are strictly my interpretations, Please visit their website to learn more at www.investors.com .
Finally, I have added a section known as 'the Internet of Things.' These are the 13 wonders identified by many investors as the key stocks leading the internet revolution as we enter the middle years of the 21st century. Now, track these stocks with me beginning on Page 12.
* IBD 50 and SPDR Select are trade-mark names; I claim no association with the vendors of these products. My chart interpretations are strictly one person's opinion of publicly traded stocks.
With the large increase in volatility in 2018, many traders at the 'Ace Talking Stocks Forum' are trading the Vix products once again. I am adding the 5 minutes/ 3 day view of TVIX and UVXY to the top of my Public Chartlist to accomodate their requests to see these charts on an intra-day basis.
July 3, 2018: With the large increase in volatility in 2018, many traders at the 'Ace Talking Stocks Forum' are trading the Vix products once again. I am adding the 5 minutes/ 3 day view of TVIX and UVXY to the top of my Public Chartlist to accomodate their requests to see these charts on an intra-day basis.
TICK is a market pro's tool for monitoring the under-lying strength in the US stock market. $TICK specifically measures the number of up-tick trades against down-tick trades on the NYSE. By itself, the TICK patterns can be difficult to discern due to high volatility from minute to minute during the trading day. I have developed a smoothing mechanism which helps the viewer to see any trading strength patterns more clearly. From time to time, I have to adjust the trigger trip lines due to the amount of volatility in the markets. In May 2014, I had to adjust the lines inward (closer to the center) due to the lack of volatility (this can be compared to the low readings in the CBOE VIX index). When the overbought lines are reached, then it's time to take profits for day traders and also a good way for investors to maximize their profit-taking exit points. When the TICK is oversold, that means day-traders should consider buying and investors can find good entry points. When TICK is above the zero line, the market is generally going higher. Note that on days of extremes, the buy and sell signals may not always seem to work. As always, this indicator is one among many to watch, and in itself, should not be used as the only indicator upon which to make trading decisions. Always consult with your licensed broker or RIA before investing. I do NOT claim to be an investment advisor and my comments and charts are strictly for educational purposes only.
There are actually two lines to watch on this $TICK chart which updates every 5 minutes during the trading day (though the chart is on a 15 minute delay for viewers). The two lines to watch are the purple (thin) line which is the 8 EMA line and the other thicker line is the 21 EMA line (green). The purple 8 EMA line is the FAST LINE, and this line helps the trader to tease out fast movements within the TICK. The 21 EMA line is the SLOW LINE, though that is a relative term as the SLOW LINE is still capturing the fast rhythms of the market for many trader
July 8, 2018: QQQ did find support at the 50 day and began to rally by late in the holiday week. Can it continue as big money traders return to their trading desks?
July 3, 2018: QQQ lost the support of its long up-trend line on June 25th. There is also concern that the price fell into the lower Keltner Channel, but the rising 50 day line is serving as support for the time being. My concern is that the 50 day, though supportive, could fail to hold longer term with a weak MACD graph. Also, notice the 13 EMA line is containing the top side as the line drives closer to the 50 MA. As the price gets 'caught in the pocket' of the 13-50 approaching down-cross, this could drive QQQ downward. Keep a close eye on this pocket area in the days to come.
March 2018: QQQ shows an outside reversal candle on March 13th's all-time high day...and then the price fell out of an Island Top a few days later...these are bearish signs for QQQ and can present serious resistance to any future rallies. Buy the dips buyers may want to be more cautious with this set up?
07/03/18: SPY lost the support of its long up-trend line on June 21st, but not a surprise since it was in a rising wedge. There is also concern that the price fell into the lower Keltner Channel, but the rising 50 day line is serving as support for the time being. My concern is that the 50 day, though supportive, could fail to hold longer term with a weak MACD graph. Also, notice the 13 EMA line is containing the top side as the line drives closer to the 50 MA. As the price gets 'caught in the pocket' of the 13-50 approaching down-cross, this could drive QQQ downward. Keep a close eye on this pocket area in the days to come. CMF and A-D graphs show investors are fleeing SPY, so this enhances the chance that the 13-50 pocket will drive the price lower (under the 50 MA).
03//11/18: A dramatic turn of events by Friday with the positive reaction to the Jobs Report. How long can it last? The SPY chart suggests that the pennant breakout can reach back to the top of the flagpole. Keep in mind that monthly options expiry is 3/19 and that could lead to a sharp correction mid-week?
03/03/2018: SPY investors are whistling past the graveyard, even as the Bond Market (including junk bonds) and the US Dollar are in retreat. The SPY chart shows a pennant has developed in the Bull position. However, that pennant has about a 40% probability of breaking down and that would lead to a lower low. If the lower low is established, then the lower high (at $279) of late February would establish a clear down-trend channel. So, stock investors need for the breakout of the pennant to head up and attempt to clear the previous all-time high ($287) if they are to realize their dreams of an extended 9 year bull market.
MTUM is the largest ETF that invests in momentum stocks. MTUM re-balances its portfolio each May and October to include only the 125 stocks with the best momentum performance factors of the prior period. In theory, this ETF should perform well in Bull markets, but investors should keep a keen eye on bull/ bear indicators because such an ETF could suffer greatly in Bear markets.
UPDATE: March 11/18- A positive turn for the market Bulls! A wedge line breakout is a positive for HYG and equity investors-- at least for the near term.
UPDATE: March 3, 2018- HYG is clearly in a correction! The 200 day line now serves as resistance where before, it provided long time support. The down-trend channel is clearly defined. JNK is in a similar pattern. HYG and JNK can serve as 'harbingers of things to come' for the US stock markets in general. Stock investors should be moving toward cash or shorting the market as rallies in stocks are more likely to get sold.
UPDATE: November 9, 2017 - HYG hit an outright SELL signal today a few days after ACE and his followers exited with profits off the early XXX exit signal. A selloff in HYG can be like a canary in a coal mine, because the US Stock indexes will often follow the HYG in direction. So, watch US stock markets with caution now.
UPDATE 7/3/18: TLT broke through the 200 day resistance a few sessions ago. All bets on higher interest rates on the long bonds are off the table in the current 'risk off' period. With the price basing in a gap island above the 200 day line, bond shorts should remain cautious until a clearer picture develops.
UPDATE: 3/3/2018- The critical line in the sand for TLT is the $117.70 price give or take about 15 cents either side of that line. This is a critical over/under mark which has been tested several times recently as I have pointed out at my website forum (www.acestocktrader.com). As long as TLT can remain above this price point, the US equities market seems to do okay. But below that mark, and all trouble breaks loose! There are two key trend lines which intersect in the $117.70 area and help to define it in algorithmic formulas. A clear break below that point shows little support (outside of Fibonacci retracements) until about $113.80, potentially leading to a bond market (and stock market) rout should that occur. Bulls may not know it, but equity and bond markets are precariously close to a major correction.
Update: 3/3/2018- The $USD chart hit the 50 day resistance line this past week and was pushed back there, as would be expected with the 50 day in decline. Now, it appears that $USD will be moving down again to re-test the recent double bottom set in February. Gold could advance in early March if this plays out as outlined here.
Update: 1/13/18- As I expected, the US $ index has hit a new 52 week low. I don't see any immediate technical support coming in. Gold price touches nearly $1,340 on 1/17/18.
Update on 11/23/17: It seems not many people are paying attention, but the Dollar's long term outlook changed when the 200 day line turned downward.
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