ACE: View my IBD 50/ SPYDER Sector charts. More warning signs! See my charts

Mike Carlton Has Had Over 100 Followers Rank: 13 Followers: 102 Votes: 30 Years Member: 10 Last Update: 20 April 2018, 0:44 Categories: Momentum Stocks
Trend Analysis
ETFs

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Three (3) new features of my Chart List are my favorite hand-picked IBD 50 Stocks, the Spyder Sector ETFs and the 13 Wonders known as the Internet of Things stocks!

The first two pages contain charts that measure perceptions of the overall markets. The main equity indexes (S&P500/ Dow Industrials/ Nasdaq) and key measures of bond markets, the TED Spread, Gold, Currencies, and special ratio charts in the special 'Ace way' that makes things clear and simple to see.

The 10 major Sector SPDR ETFs are tracked with Ace's favorite trend indicators and oscillators! If one understands the trends and cycles of these charts, then they will have a very good grasp of the major rotations of the smart money traders. These charts show up on Page 19 of my Chart List and their symbols begin with the letter 'X'.

The second new feature is a hand-picked selection of the IBD 50 stocks. I use many of my favored indicators on these DAILY charts, including the dynamic 13. 50, 100 and 200 MA lines. (IBD usually shows WEEKLY charts-- you can see DAILY here!) I show the proper bases on these charts as base theory is critical in the IBD 50 stock selection and CANSLIM systems. Of course, IBD 50 and CANSLIM are successful trading systems developed by Investor's Business Daily. These charts start on Page 10. I am not associated or affiliated with the IBD in any way and my charts are strictly my interpretations, Please visit their website to learn more at www.investors.com .

Finally, I have added a section known as 'the Internet of Things.' These are the 13 wonders identified by many investors as the key stocks leading the internet revolution as we enter the middle years of the 21st century. Now, track these stocks with me beginning on Page 12.

* IBD 50 and SPDR Select are trade-mark names; I claim no association with the vendors of these products. My chart interpretations are strictly one person's opinion of publicly traded stocks.

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-0.023 PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)

QQQ shows an outside reversal candle on March 13th's all-time high day...and then the price fell out of an Island Top a few days later...these are bearish signs for QQQ and can present serious resistance to any future rallies. Buy the dips buyers may want to be more cautious with this set up?

-0.024 SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

03//11/18: A dramatic turn of events by Friday with the positive reaction to the Jobs Report. How long can it last? The SPY chart suggests that the pennant breakout can reach back to the top of the flagpole. Keep in mind that monthly options expiry is 3/19 and that could lead to a sharp correction mid-week?

03/03/2018: SPY investors are whistling past the graveyard, even as the Bond Market (including junk bonds) and the US Dollar are in retreat. The SPY chart shows a pennant has developed in the Bull position. However, that pennant has about a 40% probability of breaking down and that would lead to a lower low. If the lower low is established, then the lower high (at $279) of late February would establish a clear down-trend channel. So, stock investors need for the breakout of the pennant to head up and attempt to clear the previous all-time high ($287) if they are to realize their dreams of an extended 9 year bull market.

-0.025 iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond Fund (HYG)

UPDATE: March 11/18- A positive turn for the market Bulls! A wedge line breakout is a positive for HYG and equity investors-- at least for the near term.

UPDATE: March 3, 2018- HYG is clearly in a correction! The 200 day line now serves as resistance where before, it provided long time support. The down-trend channel is clearly defined. JNK is in a similar pattern. HYG and JNK can serve as 'harbingers of things to come' for the US stock markets in general. Stock investors should be moving toward cash or shorting the market as rallies in stocks are more likely to get sold.

UPDATE: November 9, 2017 - HYG hit an outright SELL signal today a few days after ACE and his followers exited with profits off the early XXX exit signal. A selloff in HYG can be like a canary in a coal mine, because the US Stock indexes will often follow the HYG in direction. So, watch US stock markets with caution now.

-0.026 a iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)

UPDATE: 3/3/2018- The critical line in the sand for TLT is the $117.70 price give or take about 15 cents either side of that line. This is a critical over/under mark which has been tested several times recently as I have pointed out at my website forum (www.acestocktrader.com). As long as TLT can remain above this price point, the US equities market seems to do okay. But below that mark, and all trouble breaks loose! There are two key trend lines which intersect in the $117.70 area and help to define it in algorithmic formulas. A clear break below that point shows little support (outside of Fibonacci retracements) until about $113.80, potentially leading to a bond market (and stock market) rout should that occur. Bulls may not know it, but equity and bond markets are precariously close to a major correction.
UPDATE ON 1/26/18: As I have mentioned numerous times at my website (www.AceStockTrader.com), TLT is on the right side of a long rounded top and now tripping on down through critical MA support lines such as the 50 day. TLT is approaching a critical long term over-under line at 122. Should it fail to hold there, we could witness a historic bond rout! Stay tuned....

UPDATE: On June 2nd, TLT began to fill the gap created by the Trump presidential victory dating back to November 8th. Once the gap fill is completed (and assuming it does get completed), it can be viewed as one of two events: 1) A confirmation of the Trump presidency-- the confirmation will occur when TLT begins to fall again AFTER the gap is filled. OR, 2) A repudiation of the good intents of the Trump presidency. Should TLT continue to climb, it could be interpreted that the Trump presidency is NOT meeting its objectives. A rising TLT signals trepidation in the markets. A falling TLT usually signals fast and loose speculative markets. Stay tuned!

-0.027 US Dollar Index - Cash Settle (EOD) ($USD)

Update: 3/3/2018- The $USD chart hit the 50 day resistance line this past week and was pushed back there, as would be expected with the 50 day in decline. Now, it appears that $USD will be moving down again to re-test the recent double bottom set in February. Gold could advance in early March if this plays out as outlined here.

Update: 1/13/18- As I expected, the US $ index has hit a new 52 week low. I don't see any immediate technical support coming in. Gold price touches nearly $1,340 on 1/17/18.

Update on 11/23/17: It seems not many people are paying attention, but the Dollar's long term outlook changed when the 200 day line turned downward.

-0.027b PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)

-0.029f - Internet of Things- NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA)

NVDA's server chips are in high demand by Crypto-currency miners. At least some of the more recent gains in the stock are being attributed to Bitcoin mania.

-0.03 a db X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund (ASHR)

Update on 11/23/17: The Shanghai CSI 300 suffers a 3% loss on a single day. Margin debt has increased 5 straight months to push overall margin debt to nearly a 2 year high. There is an open gap on the ASHR chart which beckons to be filled. There are a couple more open gaps with smaller ranges further back in time-- can you spot them?



-0.1 ab NYSE Composite Index ($NYA)- Fast turn signals

This chart of the New York Stock Exchange composite has shown good back-testing results in calling turns in the markets. The 3 EMA line acts as the primary signal and is supported/ confirmed by the Fast MACD (settings at 4,10,6) and the Fast ADX (7 day setting) and Fast Setting RSI.

-0.1 b aaNYSE Bullish Percent Index (EOD) ($BPNYA)

I have long used the pSAR trip signal on BPNYA as a good, simple buy or sell signal. I use this signal in conjunction with other charts, but for those who are looking for a good, simple signal for the health of stocks, this might be it! Also of note is that when a trend gets going, the 13 EMA line seems to work quite well as support in up-trends and as resistance in down-trends.

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