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-0.1 a Baltic Dry Index (EOD) ($BDI)- Weekly 12 years
The Baltic Dry Index hit a new all-time low on November 19, 2015. Is this signaling some sort of global slow down even as stock markets rally?
-0.1 a Copper Futures - COMEX (EOD)/Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) ($COPPER:$GOLD)
UPDATE: November 20, 2015. The Au-Cu Ratio snaps a 4 Year solid support line. Yet, the large divergence to the S&P 500 continues. Prior to the Fed's QE policies, the S&P tracked closely to this ratio. Perhaps with the Fed attempting to raise interest rates by 2016, the divergence could come to an end?
UPDATE: January 13, 2015., THE COPPER-GOLD RATIO CONTINUES TO PLUMMET SUGGESTING A SLOW DOWN IN THE WORLD ECONOMY IS REAL. The CU-Au Ratio has proven quite accurate in the past, and this divergence from the rising US equities market suggests that US stock investors may be in for a rude surprise soon!
-0.1 a Nasdaq - Advance-Decline Volume ($NAUD)-Weekly cumulative
The Nasdaq Advance-Decline Volume Line is a good measure of Market Breadth in the most popular index for traders.This line is shown in a cumulative measure for spotting trends and long term perspectives. A rising line signals robust strength, while a falling line hints at weakness and possible bear markets.
-0.1 a Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT)
The Russell 2000 attracts many traders for its high beta stocks, mostly small caps, and many in fast-growth sectors of the market.
-0.1 aa $SPX - The Big Picture Chart
I thank you for your votes and support. On this board, WE are here to make profits in the stock market--pure and simple! By the way, I am an Associate Member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). -Mike
-0.1 aa NYSE Composite Index ($NYA)- Fast turn signals
This chart of the New York Stock Exchange composite has shown good back-testing results in calling turns in the markets. The 3 EMA line acts as the primary signal and is supported/ confirmed by the Fast MACD (settings at 4,10,6) and the Fast ADX (7 day setting) and Fast Setting RSI.
-0.1 aa US Dollar Index - Cash Settle (EOD) ($USD)
Update on Sept. 6, 2015: The long term Head-n-Shoulders pattern (with triple right shoulder) remains intact. More interesting of late is the ADX (65) signal has tripped to negative (red line up-cross) with the $ value under the 50 day line. This is a sell signal in my system, but of course, the new trend is early and could still cancel out. However, should this sell signal hold, it is a hint that the $ is about to fall, and that the H&S pattern may be validated with a neckline break below 93. WHAT COULD CAUSE THE US$ to FALL? Perhaps the FED delays the expected September rate hike, or China and Japan sell US Treasuries in an effort to support their currencies and markets? The set-up on the US $ chart is suggesting that such pressures are likely to cause the FED to hold or for China and/or Japan to sell treasuries, or a combination of the two. The FED meets in mid-September.
Update on March 28, 2015:The latest trading action in the US Dollar Index indicates that a possible top is in...also, the signs of a blow-off top. The huge volatile swing in the dollar index in mid-March is an early warning sign that the correction phase in the dollar has begun, imho.
-0.1 aaa db X-Trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares Fund (ASHR)
This popular China A-shares ETF shows a bearish descending triangle on the daily chart. Though there may be strong rallies at times, the longer term projection is calling for a potential crash of the Shanghai stock market.
-0.1 aaa Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU)-400 day line and its meaning
UPDATE: August 20, 2015. As expected, a bounce did follow the 400 day tag, but as I also expected, this one didn't last because it occurred AFTER a Death Cross. Today, the Dow broke the 400 day line support decisively!
UPDATE: August 15, 2015, the Dow Industrials tagged the 400 day line again this past week. I would caution that unlike the last 3 tags of the 400 day, this one occurred after a Death Cross. But so far, the Dow has lifted higher after that 400 day tag. Will the 400 day be the turnaround point like it has been the last several years?
Previous comments about the 400 day tags: The 3 most recent Devil's Crosses (20-100 down-cross) led to significant sell-offs....in fact, each of the previous 3 Devil's led the Dow down to the 400 moving average line. The 400 MA line is the long-term bull/bear line, and usually not well known by amateur technicians. You can see how each Devil led to the 400...and how each tag of the 400 zone led to a bounce-back for the Dow. In some cases over the years, the 400 MA line failed to hold support...examples include the 1987 and 2008 crashes. The 20-100 was the final warning to get out before those two crashes occurred. In early February, 2014, the Devil's Cross was narrowly avoided. However, keep an eye on this in case it should change again.
-0.1 aaa iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)
Update Sept. 13, 2015: Is TLT trapped in a bearish down-trend? or is it in a Bull Flag pattern? It could be either as the world awaits the FED's decision on Sept. 17th. All eyes will be focused on the reaction in US Treasuries. Also, keep an eye on gold for any reaction there, especially if TLT should RAPIDLY collapse in price. (A slow drop in price would not be favorable to gold, but a rapid disintegration would be positive for gold.)
Update: August 30, 2015: We learn that China dumped over $100 billion in US Treasuries last week to prop up their currency and stock market. Heavy selling volume is visible on TLT's chart even as it was topping out after a recent rally. Now, TLT looks precariously propped up....notice the rapid drop in accumulation (A-D) and cash flow (CMF). Watch to see if this can hold up!?
Update April 2015: The TLT bond fund broke decisively through the neckline of a prominent Head-n-Shoulders on September 14th in the wake of the Federal Reserve's decision to begin QE3. However, powerful forces, including the Federal Reserve itself, have managed to support the right shoulder and create a TRIPLE RIGHT SHOULDER as we entered year 2013. Nonetheless, the general H&S pattern remains intact with no change in the general pattern. Major moving average down-crosses have reversed by April 2013 suggesting that the long bonds will be a good bet going forward. If so, then the US stock market could be in trouble. It's no surprise as the Fed is struggling to keep rates low at least until Year 2016 so that they don't have to sell off long bonds at market rates. (See my blog on 'the Twist' by googling 'Ace Talking Stocks' and click on the blog link.) So, will the Fed managed to keep bonds at low interest rates for a long time (as in Japan)?
UPDATE: February 27, 2014: The new up-trend is confirming. US long dated treasuries are making a big comeback, just the opposite of what most market pundits have been predicting for year 2014. The lateral high of the W-bottom has been clea