Ace Stock Trader- 'Mo-celerator', 'SCAR' and LT Investment Charts...Updated 5/23/13
$SPX - Default Style
As the StockCharts warning states, the most popular lists may not be making people any money. Some (but not all) of the leaders on this public board apparently have large followings on Facebook or Twitter. Their followers come over here to cheer on their friends. If it's popularity that drives your investment decisions, good luck to you!
They have the same problem on StockTwits too. Some people with thousands of followers over there, and yet most of them are only repeating what someone else said or they are stating the obvious.
I thank you for your votes and support. On this board, WE are here to make profits in the stock market--pure and simple! By the way, I am an Associate Member of the Market Technicians Association (MTA). -Mike
-01- Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX)-Dynamic Buy-Sell INVESTOR Signals
This chart is designed for INVESTORS, not traders. Using the popular Nasdaq 100 Index, there are certain buy-sell signals I watch for in terms of LONGER TERM TRADES or INVESTMENTS. This Index should offer good clues as to when to be long in the market....and when to exit or go short the market.
The 13-50 moving average crossovers are one such signal--this crossover serves as the accleration signal on my Mo-celerator charts, but it is also an important buy signal for INVESTORS who don't want to chase every short term signal.
Also, I watch for the 13 day EMA line on the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) Indicator with the CMF set at a 34 day lag on INDEX charts. I have found over time that when the 13 ema line on this graph crosses above the zero line, that this serves as confirmation of stronger, longer trend. It works especially well to the long (buy) side, and a negative crossover is often 'a final get out' signal if somehow you have not listened to earlier exit signals, which many investors do not do because they don't want to miss the next surge higher....I understand this as part of my portfolio is invested for the long term too.
Also, the Dynamic chart also shows the Accumulation-Distribution (A-D) line with a 13 day EMA line...the crossovers on the 13-dma serve as an additional tandem confirmation along with CMF as to whether money is flowing into the momentum stocks of the Naz 100....or flowing out. Often, the 13 ema crossover of the A-D line will occur before action shows in the CMF, because CMF captures heavy money moves, while A-D captures the early trend setters whose cash flows are not easily detectable. The CMF then serves as a confirmation of the early trend-setters' A-D signals.
Finally, my charts always include the ADX graph, which is 'the holy grail' graph for me. For investors, the signal to watch is at least a 5-pt move of the black ADX line in the direction of the new trend...once you have a 5-pt move, the trend is considered solid and firm for investors. 7/14/12
-02- NYSE - Short-Term Trading Arms Index (TRIN) ($TRIN)
I also find TRIN very useful for intra-day entry and exit points, but that chart is not shown here. This is a daily view chart.
-03- iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT)
The TLT bond fund broke decisively through the neckline of a prominent Head-n-Shoulders on September 14th in the wake of the Federal Reserve's decision to begin QE3. However, powerful forces, including the Federal Reserve itself, have managed to support the right shoulder and create a TRIPLE RIGHT SHOULDER as we entered year 2013. Nonetheless, the general H&S pattern remains intact with no change in the general pattern. Major moving average down-crosses have reversed by April 2013 suggesting that the long bonds will be a good bet going forward. If so, then the US stock market could be in trouble. It's no surprise as the Fed is struggling to keep rates low at least until Year 2016 so that they don't have to sell off long bonds at market rates. (See my blog on 'the Twist' by googling 'Ace Talking Stocks' and click on the blog link.) So, will the Fed managed to keep bonds at low interest rates for a long time (as in Japan)? Keep in mind that conservative investors have been cubby-holed up in US treasuries for a long, long time...the low yields of the long bonds are risky in themselves as the risk of financial loss is great should these bonds sell-off in earnest. However, the average retail investor has no real concept of this risk. The next big test for long bonds comes in late May or early June when the Congress must approve the raising of the debt ceiling limit to new unfathomable heights--any mis-step at that time could cause an immediate bond bust which could also flatten stocks. (Updated April 13, 2013)
-04- Treasury - EuroDollar Spread ($TED)-daily
The TED SPREAD ($TED) -- sometimes affectionately called 'the TEDDIE'-- tracks the yield spread between the historically 'safe' 3 month US Treasury Note interest rate and the 3 month LIBOR Rate, which is the European base lending rate for banks around the world. Generally, when the spread is low, stock markets tend to perform well. In 2008, the Teddie rose dramatically which foretold of a significant and damaging credit event which eventually came to pass and led to a generational low in stocks in early 2009.
In mid-2012, we saw here that the TEDDY was falling dramatically, which led to the general call to get bullish in stocks. Since then, we have seen the US stocks (and other global stock markets) rally considerably in that time, even as many investors remained on the sidelines cubby-holed into US treasuries and other debt instruments.
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http://talkingstocks.acestocktrader.com/ ...to see the latest market commentary from TRADERS/ INVESTORS of all skill sets. Learn what's really at stake for the markets...and how to position for gains...and safety!
My stock charts are offered as an example of my current trade ideas and are intended for illustrative purposes only. Investing/ trading in stocks is speculation!
-05- Copper Futures - COMEX (EOD)/Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD) ($COPPER:$GOLD)
-06- Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD)/Oil - Light Crude - Continuous Contract (EOD) ($GOLD:$WTIC)
Why compare Gold to the price of Oil? Both are priced in US dollars, and since many people believe the US currency is de-basing, we may not be seeing the REAL influence of gold to oil. By comparing the two directly, we eliminate the Dollar's influence to see what is really happening between these two prized commodities.
Also, gold is a store of value, and has only minor (but growing) usage by industrial markets. On the other hand, oil is a very important usage commodity...the world would basically grind to a halt without oil. When oil is thriving against gold, it can be said that the world economy is advancing.
-07- Gold - Continuous Contract (EOD)/Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index (EOD) ($GOLD:$CRB)
Gold can also be compared to all other commodities by using the CRB Index. Using this ratio, we can see that gold is NOT trading as a commodity! NO!!! It's trading mostly as an alternative currency to paper money. If it were trading like most commodities, then this ratio would be under 2.5 where it stood for many, many years. Mike.
-08-S&P 500 Large Cap Index ($SPX)- LT ADX 52 Chart
We can get an idea of whether the S&P 500 is in or about to enter a dynamic TREND phase...or if it's just in a long term sideways trading phase. For about the last year, there has been no real trend for the S&P--this is one reason you might experience a lot of volatility, but seemingly no real direction in things. A reading below 10 on the ADX-52 is a sign of no trend, but also, most powerful trends are born in such periods of directionless volatility or periods of complacency.
Words to the wise: as of July 2012, the ADX is well under 10, but don't assume that the next big trend will be very bearish...ADX does not predict from such a low number which way the market will turn. It could easily begin a very strong bullish trend as well.
-10- Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU)-The Devil's Pre-cursor