Market timing - SPX - ETFs - GOLD- easy trading

Timo Yla-soininmaki Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 47 Followers: 25 Votes: 38 Years Member: 6 Last Update: 22 January 2015, 7:44 Categories: Market Timing
Gold / Gold Stocks
Swing Trading

Welcome. Signals below relate to S&P500, but they can be used for many other stocks, ETFs and indexes around the world. Almost everything follow S&P500, only difference is that they may move up and down with the different magnitude. I use Tradestation charting software for the first two daily SPX charts.

Oct. 12. THE top is forming... time to be very careful.
Oct. 15. I think for all the practical purposes; this is the top. But as they say; tops are processes not events, so we may get 2 or 3 humps before it is completed.
Oct. 28. The top is forming, but no sell signal as of yet.
Dec. 6. The top is still forming according to the plan :)
Dec. 11. My new system (two first charts) just gave a short and long-term sell signals!!!
Dec. 14. I realize that out there is a lot of good news when it comes to US economy and many stock analysts are very bullish right now and that makes this sell signal even more controversial. Only the time will tell whether it was correct or wrong. But there is not necessarily any hurry to sell or do anything because major tops are processes and take a long time (months) to form. Next there might be a dip and then at least one more hump before major sellout.
Dec. 27. It will be interesting to see what happens in january.... Only heaven knows :)
Jan. 4. Let's see what happens. Short term it could go either way?
Jan. 9. as they say; tops are processes not events, so we may get 2 more humps before it is completed.
Jan. 19. So far markets are proceeding according to the plan.


0 Daily Trading Signals

Short-term signals. Most trades back tested. Dotted lines are secondary trades.

1 $SPX - Daily Trading Signals

Long-term signals. Most trades back tested. Dotted lines are secondary trades.

2 $SPX - Weekly Medium Term

Trade when the price crosses 15 MA EOW. Use other indicators for confirmation and for secondary trades. Some indicators are more reliable and important than the otheres. Also look for and use divergences, support and resitance lines for trading decisions.

Some may wait for all indicators to happen; some may jump the gun earlier. As each indicator happens it's a good sign that the direction will continue.

3 $S&P - Monthly long term

Also use divergencies, support and resitance lines for trading. It looks to me that if S&P is over 20 SMA we are in Bull market and if it's below it; we are in Bear market.
When 12 and 20 SMAs start to slope, that means that the trend is changing... that's all you need to know.
I added PMO. It looks like it could be a good indicator for this set up.
Blue circles show that I jumped the gun and suffered unnecessary whipsaw. Well, live and learn.. or actually trade and learn.

The results of this system from April 1991 on SPX; long and short:
1. Buy April 91 @ 442
2. Sell November 00 @ 1,429 (269%) (top was 1,553)
3. Buy June 03 @ 963 (48%)
4. Sell January 08 @ 1,467 (52%) (top was 1,576)
5. Buy September 09 @ 1,019 (44%)
6. Sell September 11 @ 1,219 (20%)
7. Buy December 11 @ 1,246 (-2%) (total so far: 431%)
8. Open...Sell ?

Profitable and pretty safe investing can be this simple. Usually we tend to make it too complicated with too many indicators, reading too many analyst etc.

4 Gold - Weekly

- Gold is a buy at any price especially as an insurance.
- When mining stocks (HUI) leads; that's always a good sign. See: $Gold/$HUI indicators above.

5 Gold - Monthly

This long term monthy trading system has worked pretty well since 1996. Trade when the price crosses 15 MA EOM. Most other indicators should also confirm it. End of the year 2000 no sell signal because MACD and some other indicators didn't confirm.
8/23 EMA crossover confirms the trend.

6.1 GDX - Weekly

8 $MSWORLD - Weekly

EFA is a tradable ETF, which follow MSWORLD pretty nicely.

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