Market timing - SPX - ETFs - GOLD

Timo Yla-soininmaki Rank: 48 Followers: 19 Votes: 53 Years Member: 6 Last Update: 20 July 2014, 11:19 Categories: Market Timing
Gold / Gold Stocks
Swing Trading

Welcome. If there is a new signal I update these charts before the open, and comment below at least weekly as to what I think will happen the coming week.

June 12. I think that we will now have a small dip, but this is not going to be the ultimate top. My long term indicator is still far away (months) from the top. I don't know for sure how deep this dip will be, but I suspect that it might be worth shorting, if you are really nimble trader who knows what to do. Shorting in uptrend is dangerous.
June 16. I think the downward action will continue this coming week.
June 24. Maybe this week we finally get the downward action?
July 1. gold is strong. Markets are ripe for a dip, but seem to defy gravity.
July 9. Maybe we finally get the drop..??
July 20. Up we go :)

Less

1 $SPX - Daily Trading Signals

2 $SPX - Weekly Medium Term

Trade when the price crosses 15 MA EOW. Use other indicators for confirmation and for secondary trades. Some indicators are more reliable and important than the otheres. Also look for and use divergences, support and resitance lines for trading decisions.

Some may wait for all indicators to happen; some may jump the gun earlier. As each indicator happens it's a good sign that the direction will continue.

3 $S&P - Monthly long term

Also use divergencies, support and resitance lines for trading. It looks to me that if S&P is over 20 SMA we are in Bull market and if it's below it; we are in Bear market.
When 12 and 20 SMAs start to slope, that means that the trend is changing... that's all you need to know.
I added PMO. It looks like it could be a good indicator for this set up.
Blue circles show that I jumped the gun and suffered unnecessary whipsaw. Well, live and learn.. or actually trade and learn.

The results of this system from April 1991 on SPX; long and short:
1. Buy April 91 @ 442
2. Sell November 00 @ 1,429 (269%) (top was 1,553)
3. Buy June 03 @ 963 (48%)
4. Sell January 08 @ 1,467 (52%) (top was 1,576)
5. Buy September 09 @ 1,019 (44%)
6. Sell September 11 @ 1,219 (20%)
7. Buy December 11 @ 1,246 (-2%) (total so far: 431%)
8. Open...Sell ?

Profitable and pretty safe investing can be this simple. Usually we tend to make it too complicated with too many indicators, reading too many analyst etc.

4 Gold - Weekly

- Gold is a buy at any price especially as an insurance.
- When mining stocks (HUI) leads; that's always a good sign. See: $Gold/$HUI indicators above.

5 Gold - Monthly

This long term monthy trading system has worked pretty well since 1996. Trade when the price crosses 15 MA EOM. Most other indicators should also confirm it. End of the year 2000 no sell signal because MACD and some other indicators didn't confirm.
8/23 EMA crossover confirms the trend.

6.1 GDX - Weekly

7 GDX Monthy

Gold stocks tend to follow the general market. At least GDX has done so for the past 6 years... or as long as GDX has been around.

Newmont mining stock has also followed SPX pretty closely since 2003, but it did go the opposite direction to SPX from 1997 to 2003 period.

Trade when price crosses 15 MA. Use other indicators and support and resitance lines for confirmation.

8 $MSWORLD - Weekly

EFA is a tradable ETF, which follow MSWORLD pretty nicely.

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