Market timing - SPX - ETFs - GOLD- easy trading

Timo Yla-soininmaki Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 39 Followers: 32 Votes: 50 Years Member: 7 Last Update: 19 May 2015, 1:20 Categories: Market Timing
Gold / Gold Stocks
Swing Trading

Welcome. Signals below relate to S&P500, but they can be used for many other stocks, ETFs and indexes around the world. Almost everything follow S&P500, only difference is that they may move up and down with the different magnitude. I use Tradestation charting software for the first two daily SPX charts.

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Feb. 24. I read that this current bull market has lasted for 71 months. There are only 2 longer bull markets; 1929 and 2001 dotcom bubble. Enough said!
Mar. 1. Only 4% underwater... let's see what this week brings.
Mar. 8. Stop loss for gold ETF is $1135 on all time frames. ETFs, not physical gold if you still on the black.
Mar. 11. I think we will endure a few more days of pain. Then next week starts at least one more rally before major drop.
Mar. 14. We may still have a couple more negative days ahead of us.. and then another rally, that will be OK for nimble traders.
Mar. 26. Today next secondary sell signal short and long term SPX charts.Top is forming according to the plan.
Apr. 3. Still no change... top is forming.
Apr. 12. Top is forming. There is a lot of talk that the economy is getting better, but I am not seeing it. It's possible that the Fed will pump more money into the markets and markets will go to the moon... but higher it goes, the higher it will fall. Even now everyone knows the stock markets are not reflection of the real situation on the streets.
Apr. 12. First two charts -3,5% underwater.
May 1. Top is forming.
May 2. Red circles on monthly SPX EOM chart show some of the indicators starting to break down. Time to be careful.
May 17. Gold additional buy signal in weekly chart.
May 19. If the top forms the same way as it did 2007; it takes about 6 months to form. Six months will be up by the end of this month!


0 Daily Trading Signals

Short-term signals. Dotted lines are secondary trades.

1 $SPX - Daily Trading Signals

Long-term signals. Dotted lines are secondary trades.

2 $SPX - Weekly Medium Term

Trade when the price crosses 15 MA EOW. Use other indicators for confirmation and for secondary trades. Some indicators are more reliable and important than the otheres. Also look for and use divergences, support and resitance lines for trading decisions.

Some may wait for all indicators to happen; some may jump the gun earlier. As each indicator happens it's a good sign that the direction will continue.

3 $S&P - Monthly long term

Also use divergencies, support and resitance lines for trading. It looks to me that if S&P is over 20 SMA we are in Bull market and if it's below it; we are in Bear market.
When 12 and 20 SMAs start to slope, that means that the trend is changing... that's all you need to know.
I added PMO. It looks like it could be a good indicator for this set up.
Blue circles show that I jumped the gun and suffered unnecessary whipsaw. Well, live and learn.. or actually trade and learn.
Red circles show some of the indicators starting to break down EOM. Time to be careful.

The results of this system from April 1991 on SPX; long and short:
1. Buy April 91 @ 442
2. Sell November 00 @ 1,429 (269%) (top was 1,553)
3. Buy June 03 @ 963 (48%)
4. Sell January 08 @ 1,467 (52%) (top was 1,576)
5. Buy September 09 @ 1,019 (44%)
6. Sell September 11 @ 1,219 (20%)
7. Buy December 11 @ 1,246 (-2%) (total so far: 431%)
8. Open...Sell ?

Profitable and pretty safe investing can be this simple. Usually we tend to make it too complicated with too many indicators, reading too many analyst etc.

4 Gold - Weekly

- Gold is a buy at any price especially as an insurance.
- When mining stocks (HUI) leads; that's always a good sign. See: $Gold/$HUI indicators above.

5 Gold - Monthly

This long term monthy trading system has worked pretty well since 1996. Trade when the price crosses 15 MA EOM. Most other indicators should also confirm it. End of the year 2000 no sell signal because MACD and some other indicators didn't confirm.
8/23 EMA crossover confirms the trend.

6.1 GDX - Weekly

8 $MSWORLD - Weekly

EFA is a tradable ETF, which follow MSWORLD pretty nicely.

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