Market Trend Indicator (MTI) Composite Model

Paul Gire Rank: 69 Followers: 5 Votes: 4 Years Member: 5 Last Update: 24 March 2017, 19:21 Categories: Market Timing
Market Breadth Analysis

These charts represent the 27 indicators that make up the Market Trend Indicator (MTI). The purpose of this indicator is to provide actionable buy and sell signals for investors using the S&P 500. The primary objective is to avoid the periodic bear market declines that can be devastating to ones wealth. Though a number of the indicators are themselves short-term, the model is optimized to reduce the number of trades, though of course, trendless and fast moving markets environments will tend to increase the number of trades.

Market commentary is provided in the first chart and a summary of recent MTI signals can be found in the second chart. The charts that follow are for each of the individual indicators that make up the Composite.

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1.0 - Market Commentary

1.01 - MTI Composite Signals

History of Composite signals


42% - 2% + 3.5% + 8% - 1.1% + 5.8% = 62.8%

3.02 - $SPX:$VIX - Daily

Sentiment Indicator: Measures the relative performance of the 'VIX' (The Fear Indicator) relative to the S&P 500. Generally speaking, periods of increased volatility coincide with market declines.

Stochastics -- When STO55 is above 50, than stochastics sell not possible unless STO21 has crossed below STO55.

3.04 - $VLE - Zweig 4% Rule

Breadth Indicator: Measures the performance of the Value Line Index relative to the S&P 500.

Developed by the late, great Marty Zweig: A buy signal is generated when the index rises at least four percent from a previous value. A sell signal is generated when the index falls at least four percent. For example, a buy signal would be generated if the weekly close of the Value Line rose from 200 to 208 (a four percent rise). If the index subsequently rallied to 250 and then dropped below 240 (a four percent drop), a sell signal would be generated.

3.06 - SPY - Daily

Momentum Indicator: Measures the short-term momentum of the S&P 500

3.08 - !GT20SPX - Daily

Breadth Indicator: Measures the percentage of stocks above their 20-day mov avg

12/15/2016 -- Ever since the bottom in February each rally in stocks has witnessed the % of stocks above the 20-day mov avg climb above 65 -- a bullish configuration. This indicates strong breadth and, according to how I use this indicator, a sell signal is not possible until there's a negative divergence such that this indicator peaks below 65.

3.10 - $Mkt Thrust Ind - Daily

Breadth Indicator: Measures the percentage of stocks above their 50 day mov avg.

12/14/2016 -- The indicator has crossed above 80% (green horizontal line). The indicates a very strong rally and suggests any correction will likely be minor and eventually lead to higher prices.

3.12 - $NYMO - Daily

Breadth Indicator: The McClellan Oscillator measures the momentum of the AD Line or Net Advances

3.12 - $NYMO - Daily #2

Breadth Indicator: The McClellan Oscillator measures the momentum of the AD Line or Net Advances

3.14 - !PMOAZSPX - Daily

Breadth Indicator: Measures the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 with a PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) above zero.

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