Intermarket Analysis & Business Cycle Investing
100. Long Term/Secular Trend: SPY EMA100-EMA200 Crossovers
SPY Long Term Trend - To provide an overview of where we've been and where we are.
101: Monthly S&P 500
102: 1/Unemployment Index Correlated with S&P 500
102: Current Business Cycle Stage
103: Evidence for Current Phase of the Business Cycle
Note: Overall, the indicators imply we are most likely in Stage 2 of the current business cycle (business cycle trough, stocks begin to rally) .
If this is correct, the Financials and Home Builders sectors may be the best sectors for investment at this time.
Technology/Semiconductors may also deserve some attention as they lead during the transition out of Stage 1 and into Stages 2 and 3. However, see Chart 551. It appears we are at the current coincident peaks of the 2-yr and 6-yr technology cycles. This may temper any increase in the tech/semiconductor industry for the next 2-3 years.
104: Evidence for Particular Phases of the Business Cycle
200: Utilities Sector - Historical Absolute and Relative Performance
Note: As of 7/2/2012, IBD ranks the Utilities sector as the 2nd strongest sector in the market (Food and Beverage is the top-ranked sector). This is fairly strong evidence that we are currently in Phase 1 of the business cycle.
201: Utilities Relative to Market (XLU:$SPX) Daily
202 - Utilities Select Sector SPDR (XLU)
203 AWK - Daily Candlesticks, 1280