The Big Picture -- The Big Churn 1997-2021 (Est. 30 August, Earth Year 002,001)

Peter Robinson Rank: 86 Followers: 6 Votes: 20 Years Member: 15 Last Update: 7 December 2016, 3:49 Categories: General Market Commentary

(12/7 -- 0603 EST) -- Santa Rally is back on?
Move above SPX 2200 could really take off here IMO.
DAX jumps to 10,947 this morning, so yesterday was not a new lower high. [DAX charts are back on p. 5]

(12/5) -- Lots of uncertainties in Europe and the Middle East, and SPX rising wedge could truncate any Santa Rally.
(12/4) -- Santa Rally 2175 support and 2200 breakout to 2300? [monthly chart]
(11/30) -- End-of-month -- now we get to see how much fuel the Santa Rally has in the tank.
(11/20) -- Rising Wedge target of SPX 2300?
(11/5) -- Bottom forming for Real Options Week next week? The week before Options Week has been the real options week for years IMO.
(10/20) -- MA(100) support has held -- now up up and away with the election result getting more certain every day?
(8/23) -- An election year pattern compared to previous years? [bottom p. 1]
(6/11) -- A Rising Tide Floats All Vessels -- NYSE and NYHL continue to be strong. [pp. 3-4]
(6/2) -- 'Up Up and Away?' -- Follow the money supply. [bottom p. 1]
(5/5) -- EMA(50) and EMA(150) Whipsaw signals continue. [middle p. 3]
(2/16) -- BB(409) support has held, and we are going up again?
(2/9) -- Election year cycle now kicking into gear at the green median line? [bottom p. 1]
(1/25/16) -- Giant multiple head-and-shoulders in process back down to SPX 800 in Earth Year 002,023?

(12/17/15) -- NYSE 800-pound canary in the coal mine EMA(409) FUBAR? [pp. 3-4]
(2/18/15) -- June 2012 target of SPX 2100 reached. [middle p. 1]

(10/25/14) -- Top forming? -- Monthly candlestick long tails are a heads up, similar to 2000 and 2007 tops IMO. [pp. 1-2]

(2/11/13) -- The Big Churn (1997-2021) is about two-thirds over IMO. [p. 1 -- posted 8/30/2001]

(6/11/12) -- 'Seven-year Itch' Triple Top at SPX 2100?

***** DISCLAIMER *****

These charts are for entertainment and educational purposes.
Do not rely on them to make investment decisions -- perform your own due diligence.
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$ -- A10.87.7 -- B157.94 -- SPY - 60-minute Sept 2015 780 size

$$ -- A10.42 -- ZZ9.7 -- A1.01.7 -- $SPX - Monthly 2015/16 small

$$ -- A10.47 -- $SPX - Weekly 2014/2016

$$$ -- A10.35 -- $SPX - Monthly Candlesticks, 1024 (w/Buttons)

$$$ -- A10.87.46 -- SPY - Daily March 2016

$$$$ -- A10.87.45 -- SPY - Daily Aug. 2015

A1.05 -- SPX -- MONTHLY 1980-2002 -- THE BIG PICTURE

(7/2/16) -- [List under reconstruction.]

(5/20/13) -- See 2001 SCC newsletter after this list was established --
(3/5/12) -- This chart was first posted on August 30th, Earth Year 002,001.
(4/22/002,006) -- Warren Buffett on hair triggers:
'There are more people [like hedge-fund managers] that go to bed at night with a hair trigger than ever before, it's an electronic herd,
they can give vent to decisions that move billions and billions of dollars with the click of a key.
We will have some exogenous event - we will have that. There will be some kind of stampede by that herd . . .

'When you have far greater sums than ever before, in one asset class after another, that are held by people who operate on a hair-trigger mechanism,
then they lend themselves to more explosive outcomes. People with very short time horizons, with huge sums of money - they can all try to head for the exits at the same time.
The only way you can leave your seat in burning financial markets is to find someone else to take your seat, and that is not always easy ...'

A10.33 -- $SPX - Monthly 1998 to 2013 -- Is this a top?

(6/2/16 -- 1833 EDT) -- Check out John Williams's update today, showing a spike up in M1.
I no longer have a membership at Shadow Stats, so I can't dig any deeper.

The SCC M1 and M2 data should update in a day or two IMO. Right now the last data is from 5/16/16 per the bottom lines above.

A10.33 -- $SPX - Monthly Election Years

A10.41 -- ZZ9.1 -- A1.01.1 -- SPX - Monthly -- Seven Year Itch overview small

(7/2/16) -- Interesting to note that the original chart was from October 2014,
as SPX was approaching the area that would become a possible top around 2100.

***** 25 October, Earth Year 002,014 *****

Is a top forming?

In June 2012 it was asked whether a 'Seven-year Itch' Triple Top could form in 2014 -- has this process started?
The 2000 and 2007 tops gave us warning signs IMO, with several candlesticks with long lower shadows -- 'long-tailed' here.
Whether called Dragon-fly, Hammer, Hanging Man, etc., it is the long lower 'tail' which is the warning sign to these eyes.

[see monthly charts on p. 1 and the close-up charts below]

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