The Big Picture -- The Big Churn 1997-2021 (Est. 30 August, Earth Year 002,001)

Peter Robinson Author is a PRO member Rank: 78 Followers: 11 Votes: 18 Years Member: 13 Last Update: 3 August 2015, 13:32 Categories: General Market Commentary

(8/3 -- 1109 EDT) -- Support at moving averages to hold? [1st chart]

(7/30) -- End-of-month stall out at resistance? -- 60-minute chart still looks weak IMO. [see first 4 charts on p. 1]

(7/28) -- Not the strongest 60-minute chart IMO.
SPX MA(50) to limit upside?
New DAX downtrend in place? [bottom p. 2]

(7/27) -- Moving average resistance to hold?
End-of-month window dressing vs. sell-in-May-and . . . etc..

(7/26) -- Support to hold at SPX 2067 from monthly chart? [top of p. 1]
(7/24) -- Serious damage on monthly and weekly charts IMO. [pp. 1-2]
(7/20) -- Tide is changing with negative divergences?
(7/19) -- VIX low is market top?
(7/8) -- NYSE breach of MA(409) ominous IMO. [middle p. 2]
(7/5) -- DAX under 11,000 again at 10, 931 -- will MA(200) hold as support? [near bottom p. 2]
(6/2) -- NYSE Seismometer Rising Wedge about to break down?
(4/27) -- Recovery from heart surgery has slowed things down, but the heart is good.
(2/18) -- June 2012 target of SPX 2100 reached. [middle p. 1]
(10/25) -- Top forming? -- Monthly candlestick long tails are a heads up, similar to 2000 and 2007 tops IMO. [pp. 1-2]
(9/1/14) -- Strong August candlestick -- Santa rally here we come?
(2/11/13) -- The Big Churn (1997-2021) is about two-thirds over IMO. [p. 1 -- posted 8/30/2001]
(6/11/12) -- 'Seven-year Itch' Triple Top at SPX 2100?


***** DISCLAIMER *****

These charts and notes are for educational and entertainment purposes only.
Do not rely on them to make investment decisions -- perform your own due diligence.
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Less

A1.03d3 -- A10.87.45 -- SPY - Daily close-up May 2015

A1.03d5 -- A10.87.46 -- SPY - Daily close-up May 2015

A1.03d5 -- A10.87.5 -- B157.94 -- SPY - 60-minute FEB 2014

A1.03g -- A10.53 -- $SPX - Weekly 2015/2016 top?

A1.03m -- A10.47 -- ZZ9.7 -- A1.01.7 -- $SPX - Monthly 2015 top

A1.05 -- SPX -- MONTHLY 1980-2002 -- THE BIG PICTURE

(6/14/15) -- [List under reconstruction.]

(5/20/13) -- See 2001 SCC newsletter after this list was established -- http://stockcharts.com/commentary/archives/cww20010909h.html
(3/5/12) -- This chart was first posted on August 30th, Earth Year 002,001.
(4/22/002,006) -- Warren Buffett on hair triggers:
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________
'There are more people [like hedge-fund managers] that go to bed at night with a hair trigger than ever before, it's an electronic herd,
they can give vent to decisions that move billions and billions of dollars with the click of a key.
We will have some exogenous event - we will have that. There will be some kind of stampede by that herd . . .

'When you have far greater sums than ever before, in one asset class after another, that are held by people who operate on a hair-trigger mechanism,
then they lend themselves to more explosive outcomes. People with very short time horizons, with huge sums of money - they can all try to head for the exits at the same time.
The only way you can leave your seat in burning financial markets is to find someone else to take your seat, and that is not always easy ...'
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________

http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/01/news/fortune500/buffett_talks/

A10.35 -- $SPX - Monthly Candlesticks, 1024 (w/Buttons)

A10.41 -- ZZ9.1 -- A1.01.1 -- $SPX - Monthly -- Seven Year Itch overview small

***** 25 October, Earth Year 002,014 *****

Is a top forming?

In June 2012 it was asked whether a 'Seven-year Itch' Triple Top could form in 2014 -- has this process started?
The 2000 and 2007 tops gave us warning signs IMO, with several candlesticks with long lower shadows -- 'long-tailed' here.
Whether called Dragon-fly, Hammer, Hanging Man, etc., it is the long lower 'tail' which is the warning sign to these eyes.

[see monthly charts on p. 1 and the close-up charts below]

A10.43 -- ZZ9.3 -- A1.01.3 -- $SPX - Monthly 2000 top

A10.45 -- ZZ9.5 -- A1.01.5 -- $SPX - Monthly 2007 top

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