Rok-n-Dan's Market and Sector Analysis with Fidelity Select Sector Funds

Dan Caldwell Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 31 Followers: 27 Votes: 22 Years Member: 14 Last Update: 13 December 2017, 20:44 Categories: General Market Commentary
Gold / Gold Stocks
Chart Patterns

7/24/17: Have been getting a lot of emails re: gold/silver mining. The sector is oversold and IMO is consolidating getting ready for a fall seasonal rally. COT gold and silver futures short interest is at a level last seen in Dec. 2015, from which gold rallied 30% and PM mining shares doubled or more. Also, in terms of PM mining demand/supply, recently released data shows that over the past 3 yrs. the US has been exporting about 30% more gold than it imports, scraps, and mines, and this deficit cannot continue. HOWEVER - markets can remain overbought (Gold Miners Bullish % Index, p.3) and oversold for extended periods, so stay away from margin and be patient. On the plus side the US dollar is weakening (p.3) and my FED INFLATION/DEFLATION chart (bottom, p.3) is also weakening suggesting that the economy is returning to deflationary mode, therefore the FED is likely to continue to be accommodative, good for gold and silver. Also, keep in mind that 35% of mining expense is the cost of fuel, that's been dropping, and those costs saving move straight to the miner's bottom line.

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$SPX - S&P 500 Fibonachi

00 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio ($CPCE)

00 NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average

00 Russell 2000 2x UltraShort (TWM) Daily

000 UltraShort Russell 2000 Fund (TWM) Weekly

0000 NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA)

6/24/11 NEW CHART. The Bullish Percents (BP's) are flashing oversold signals but have not yet made the turn, so holding cash is still the prefered option. Agressive traders who have been short may want to take some profits off the table. As Q2 window dressing winds down next week I expect hedge, pension, and mutual funds to take profits and reverse positions heading into the start of Q3.

00000 10 yr. Wilshire 5000 Composite Index

00000 25yr 10-Year US Treasury Yield ($TNX)

00000 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF)

00000 NYSE Composite Index/Euro Index ($NYA:$XEU)

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