Rok-n-Dan's Market and Sector Analysis with Fidelity Select Sector Funds

Dan Caldwell Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 36 Followers: 31 Votes: 32 Years Member: 13 Last Update: 24 June 2016, 15:19 Categories: General Market Commentary
Gold / Gold Stocks
Chart Patterns

4/30/16: Have been getting a lot of emails re: gold/silver mining. The sector is overbought and has made significant gains, and a ST correction would be healthy, but the sector is coming off of a 3 yr. very oversold market condition, and is now experiencing a strong snap-back rally. Can it go higher? My technical analysis suggests 10-15% more before a correction, but markets can remain overbought and oversold for extended periods, so buying PUT insurance may be prudent. On the plus side the US Dollar rally is correcting, with an 88 target on the index, and my FED INFLATION/DEFLATION chart indicates we are moving from deflation towards inflation, i.e. accommodative policies. Also, it took longer than expected, but 35% of mining expense is the cost of fuel, that's been dropping, and those costs saving move straight to the miner's bottom line. Third, as the USD falls, gold rises in terms of foreign currencies, and gold is experiencing a bullish breakout in Chinese, Indian, Russian, British, Euro currencies, etc. 4th, multiple bullish golden crosses are popping up all across the materials sectors, so the rally could definitely extend further.

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$SPX - S&P 500 Fibonachi

00 Bonds (TLT) vs S&P500

00 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio ($CPCE)

00 NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average

00 Russell 2000 2x UltraShort (TWM) Daily

000 UltraShort Russell 2000 Fund (TWM) Weekly

0000 NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA)

6/24/11 NEW CHART. The Bullish Percents (BP's) are flashing oversold signals but have not yet made the turn, so holding cash is still the prefered option. Agressive traders who have been short may want to take some profits off the table. As Q2 window dressing winds down next week I expect hedge, pension, and mutual funds to take profits and reverse positions heading into the start of Q3.

00000 10 yr. Wilshire 5000 Composite Index

00000 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF)

00000 NYSE Composite Index/Euro Index ($NYA:$XEU)

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