Rok-n-Dan's Market and Sector Analysis with Fidelity Select Sector Funds

Dan Caldwell Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 34 Followers: 39 Votes: 41 Years Member: 12 Last Update: 26 February 2015, 13:09 Categories: General Market Commentary
Gold / Gold Stocks
Chart Patterns

9/12/14: Market thoughts: 3/2014 I posted a US Dollar chart (top of p.3) with two different lines of thought reflecting market viewpoints. One line of thought was that with the US becoming more energy independent, the Eurozone coalition falling apart, massive money printing by the BOJ AND a record number of USD bears, that the dollar was poised to move higher in 2014 as the dollar bears got squeezed. The 2nd viewpoint was that the Fed's massive money printing experiment was falling apart, housing and retail, both mainstays of the US economy were in decline, and that the US dollar would retest previous lows. It now appears that the USDollar bulls have won the battle, as the dollar grinds even higher.

12/17/14: In the markets in general we have heavy insider selling at all levels, and even though the S&P500 and DJIA keep hitting new highs the Russell Small Cap, which is a market leader, isn't participating in the rally, causing market bulls some concern. Also, less and less Americans are buying homes, meaning no consumer spending on household improvements and furnishings. In August (p.6-7) I recommended getting out of energy related stocks, which a little late was still good advice. On the precious metals front investors have been shunning the miners, but keep in mind that energy is a large percent of mining costs, and as the price of oil, gas, and fuel decline, similar to airlines whose stocks rise in value as fuel costs decline, miners stocks are poised to mirror the airline stock charts for the same reasons. IMO if Brent Crude closes the year below $57 oil and oil related stocks will continue to fall further as we start 2015.

1/14/15: Dr. Copper is in free fall, along with other base metal mining, as global construction grinds to a halt. Without construction there is no growth. From the FRED's own data each time copper and oil have fallen so dramatically the stock market has experienced a serious correction.

Less

$SPX - S&P 500 Fibonachi

00 Bonds (TLT) vs S&P500

00 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio ($CPCE)

00 NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average

00 Russell 2000 2x UltraShort (TWM) Daily

000 UltraShort Russell 2000 Fund (TWM) Weekly

0000 NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA)

6/24/11 NEW CHART. The Bullish Percents (BP's) are flashing oversold signals but have not yet made the turn, so holding cash is still the prefered option. Agressive traders who have been short may want to take some profits off the table. As Q2 window dressing winds down next week I expect hedge, pension, and mutual funds to take profits and reverse positions heading into the start of Q3.

00000 10 yr. Wilshire 5000 Composite Index

00000 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF)

00000 NYSE Composite Index/Euro Index ($NYA:$XEU)

This information is presented for education purposes only. StockCharts.com is not responsible for any comments, advice, or annotations presented on this page. Please review our Terms of Use for more details.