Rok-n-Dan's Market and Sector Analysis with Fidelity Select Sector Funds

Dan Caldwell Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 35 Followers: 30 Votes: 23 Years Member: 14 Last Update: 27 June 2017, 21:20 Categories: General Market Commentary
Gold / Gold Stocks
Chart Patterns

8/13/16: Have been getting a lot of emails re: gold/silver mining. The sector is overbought and has made significant gains, and a ST correction would be healthy, but the sector is coming off of a 3 yr. very oversold market condition, and is now experiencing a strong snap-back rally. Can it go higher? My technical analysis suggests 10-15% more before a correction, but markets can remain overbought (Gold Miners Bullish % Index, p.3) and oversold for extended periods, so buying PUT insurance may be prudent. On the plus side my FED INFLATION/DEFLATION chart (bottom, p.3) indicates since Brexit that the economy is becoming very deflationary, suggesting the FED is likely to be highly accommodative, good for gold and silver. Also, it took longer than expected, but 35% of mining expense is the cost of fuel, that's been dropping, and those costs saving move straight to the miner's bottom line. Third, gold is rising in terms of foreign currencies, and is experiencing a bullish breakout in Chinese, Indian, Russian, British, Euro currencies, etc.(p.4). 4th, multiple overhead resistance barriers have been penetrated on strong volumes, so the rally could definitely extend further.


$SPX - S&P 500 Fibonachi

00 Bonds (TLT) vs S&P500

00 CBOE Options Equity Put/Call Ratio ($CPCE)

00 NYSE Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average

00 Russell 2000 2x UltraShort (TWM) Daily

000 UltraShort Russell 2000 Fund (TWM) Weekly

0000 NYSE Bullish Percent Index ($BPNYA)

6/24/11 NEW CHART. The Bullish Percents (BP's) are flashing oversold signals but have not yet made the turn, so holding cash is still the prefered option. Agressive traders who have been short may want to take some profits off the table. As Q2 window dressing winds down next week I expect hedge, pension, and mutual funds to take profits and reverse positions heading into the start of Q3.

00000 10 yr. Wilshire 5000 Composite Index

00000 25yr 10-Year US Treasury Yield ($TNX)

00000 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF)

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