US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 58 Followers: 15 Votes: 4 Years Member: 3 Last Update: 28 August 2015, 12:05 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis

08/24 - 11:30 AM - very nasty. Market is hugely oversold, but not a playground for the faint of heart. Time to cover shorts, and take a few days off. (Model is still very red, though. More down is likely, with a lot of bounces to get there)

08/18 - cash on close

08/12 - Long on the close (actually at 1pm today)
08/06 Short on the open
08/03 - Cash
07/29 - Long. Hourly turned long at 10AM on the 28th. Daily long at EOD on 29th
07/22 - Short at EOD. Continues to deteriorate. Daily red, hourly yellow
07/20 - Cash at EOD. Hourly and daily both 'yellow'. Note large number of 'new lows/ new highs' on QQQ and NYA (charts Bc and Be). Worrisome. This has been a large cap rally.
07/16 Model turned green on the open on Monday, after the EU vote, and is still green. Hourly was green on the close last Thursday. Sorry for the delayed update - I'm biking in the Appalachian Mts, and trading on my phone when I get signal... Caution, as the SOX and TRAN are still red...
07/08 - Have to watch China as well as Greece. They are doing everything precisely wrong. Not good....
07/05 - Well, Greece went 'no'. Not a time to be long. Cash or short for the nonce...

06/29 - still very red, obviously. May bounce, first at 203, but not really trade-able until the Greek referendum on Sunday. Overall, a very nice buying opportunity coming soon. Look for a retest of the low around 197. Unfortunately, markets closed on Friday, so some balls may be needed on Thursday close
06/24 - Hourly red at 11 AM, daily still green. Good top indicator. Greece is vexing, but Vol is still very low. The market is saying this should blow over
06/23 - back yellow on the 16th, green on the 18th EOD. Greece effect may be lessening. Volatility calming down.

06/09 - I'm back at my desk. Model went green on May 7th, red on the 27th. Still very red. Market internals are awful (except the small caps - which are retail driven). Interestingly, though, the Volatility ETFs remain relatively calm. Hmmm. Either we get a


A - SPY - With Model signals

Gray 50%

AA - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

bab - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bb - RSP (equal weight S&P)

Bc - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bcc - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bd - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

Bf - $SOX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Usually leads QQQ

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