US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 67 Followers: 14 Votes: 0 Years Member: 3 Last Update: 27 February 2015, 11:28 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis

02/26 - Still Green. Strong for now

02/06 - Who know what is going on with this market. Model turned Green on 02/04. Big reversal in previous 'flight to safety' - Utilities, Gold down, Junk Bonds up. If the money flows from Bonds (fearing interest rate increase), then maybe it will go to Stocks. Who wants to own bonds today?

01/31 - May bounce from here for a day or 2, but charts look nasty. Model is Red. Volatility is increasing, and the Vol ETFs appear to be detached from the underlying Futures - indicating HUGE bets against the market. (Vol ETFs are used as 'insurance' against a Long portfolio. When these are overbought, there is likely some nasty ahead. Also, see Utilities/Spy = big warning, along with US Treasuries = all warning of 'correction'. Many of the weekly charts have switched from Green to Yellow).

01/28 - Well, that was wrong. Good use of stops. Longs are gone at 3pm today. Market is oscillating like crazy - charts can't keep up. Best be L/S or short. Look for H&S bottom

01/27 - In spite of today, still Green. There is 'no way' the Fed will say anything to make investment unsafe. Look for more 'up'.

01/26 - Green. Volatility decreasing strongly. Huge sigh of relief, as Greece was the last remaining large uncertainty. Look for continued strengthening over the next several weeks, (+/- geopolitical craziness). Wild card - oil, and the palace struggle in the house of Saud.... Look for Gold and T-Bills to drop as they are highly overbought as a result of the uncertainty.

01/22 - Green at EOD. H&S risk is still there, but decreasing. DJA broke out above. Watch for others. Nimble is good here.

01/21 - Signal is still Red, but L/S is good here. Especially short Volatility, as the relief from uncertainty will help calm the markets, at least. Up, or sideways for a bit. This is like a 'fed day'

01/20 - Still Red, but hourly charts are turning green. I expect some bounce this week, likely to H&S line

01/15 - All is very nasty.


A - SPY - With Model signals

Gray 50%

AA - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

bab - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bb - RSP (equal weight S&P)

Bc - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bcc - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bd - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

Bf - $SOX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Usually leads QQQ

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