US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 63 Followers: 14 Votes: 1 Years Member: 3 Last Update: 28 January 2015, 15:38 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis

01/27 - In spite of today, still Green. There is 'no way' the Fed will say anything to make investment unsafe. Look for more 'up'.

01/26 - Green. Volatility decreasing strongly. Huge sigh of relief, as Greece was the last remaining large uncertainty. Look for continued strengthening over the next several weeks, (+/- geopolitical craziness). Wild card - oil, and the palace struggle in the house of Saud.... Look for Gold and T-Bills to drop as they are highly overbought as a result of the uncertainty.

01/22 - Green at EOD. H&S risk is still there, but decreasing. DJA broke out above. Watch for others. Nimble is good here.

01/21 - Signal is still Red, but L/S is good here. Especially short Volatility, as the relief from uncertainty will help calm the markets, at least. Up, or sideways for a bit. This is like a 'fed day'

01/20 - Still Red, but hourly charts are turning green. I expect some bounce this week, likely to H&S line

01/15 - All is very nasty. Flight to safety is very strong. Utilities, US Treasuries, Gold, are all going up sharply. Market could retest Oct lows - possibly quickly. EU and Greece are key next week. Seat belts recommended.... Basically, the Volatility is very highs, without the market correcting. If the market corrects further from here, it could be very bad....

01/13 - and, back Red.

01/08 - Model back to Yellow - cash or Long/short

01/05 - Model turned yellow on the 2nd, and SHORT today. Looks nasty

12/28 - Basically, everything turned green at 2:15 PM on Dec 17th - The Fed 'put' is alive. I'm still on vacation, back to work on Jan 5. Pura Vida de Costa Rica... However, risk aversion still appears to be very alive. $'s continue to flee into Utilities and out of junk. I don't expect this 'green' to last very long, but this next week should be ok......

12/14 - I'm in cash and on vacation until the 1st. Good luck to all. More after the first

12/10 - SHORT on close 12/09

12/8 - (EOD) Still yellow, but will very lik


A - SPY - With Model signals

AA - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

bab - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bb - RSP (equal weight S&P)

Bc - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bcc - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bd - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

Bf - $SOX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Usually leads QQQ

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