US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 64 Followers: 14 Votes: 3 Years Member: 3 Last Update: 1 July 2015, 17:04 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis
ETFs

06/29 - still very red, obviously. May bounce, first at 203, but not really trade-able until the Greek referendum on Sunday. Overall, a very nice buying opportunity coming soon. Look for a retest of the low around 197. Unfortunately, markets closed on Friday, so some balls may be needed on Thursday close
06/24 - Hourly red at 11 AM, daily still green. Good top indicator. Greece is vexing, but Vol is still very low. The market is saying this should blow over
06/23 - back yellow on the 16th, green on the 18th EOD. Greece effect may be lessening. Volatility calming down.

06/09 - I'm back at my desk. Model went green on May 7th, red on the 27th. Still very red. Market internals are awful (except the small caps - which are retail driven). Interestingly, though, the Volatility ETFs remain relatively calm. Hmmm. Either we get a near term up-reversal on the market, or a downward correction in the XIV. I'm betting on red.

04/24 - Hourly is cash on the close, plus I am away on vacation travel until May 23th, and will be updating only irregularly. I am in cash until then

04/20 - All green.
04/17 - Red on hourly. Still green on Daily, 04/16 - still green 04/15 - Both hourly and daily are green 04/14 - still red 04/13 - red. 04/12 - still green.
04/09 - Green. 04/08 - Green on close Bollinger bands tight. Market waiting for Alcoa to report. Could go either way, but down is more likely, in my opinion. 04/07 - Both hourly and daily are green; 04/06 - hourly green on close. Daily still yellow. 04/05 - Still Red on Hourly. Yellow on daily, (red or yellow since March 6th). Market weakening. TRAN and SOX especially (which tend to lead). Small caps holding up - likely reflection of the weak dollar, and a move of $ to US based companies, away from international large caps. Roughly half the indicators are red, half green... Overall, turning redder with time, tho

03/26 - A note to readers: I am moving the R/Y/G market call to the hourly charts when the volatility is high (e.g

Less

A - SPY - With Model signals

Gray 50%

AA - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

bab - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bb - RSP (equal weight S&P)

Bc - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bcc - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bd - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

Bf - $SOX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Usually leads QQQ

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