US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 64 Followers: 14 Votes: 5 Years Member: 2 Last Update: 17 April 2014, 9:56 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis
ETFs

04/13 - Nasty week, but it looks like a short term bottom. Strong reversal bars, possible double bottom on QQQ. Expect bounce and possible retest. Russia risk is still real and large. L/S is best here

04/10 - Another nasty day, but overall market still trending Long. (rotation continues - see page 9). I have been L/S and happy

04/04 (EOD) - Well, that was a nasty surprise Friday. Model is still long, but I will look more closely this weekend. Still primarily a rototation out of junk (QQQ and IWM - especially Internet and biotech) to the better companies, +/- some panic selling

04/03 (EOD) - Still Long. Overall Market looks strong, in spite of the correction today. (rotation from overpriced junk to good stuff is going on). Russia is getting under control - soon to be a non-event. Slow realization that they are intimately connected to the rest of the world's economy - in spite of their right-wing nuts. (much like ours in may ways).

XIV has a >>20% upside in the next 30 days.... (Inverse $VIX)


03/31 - Long
03/30 - Cash or L/S. Looks like a bottom may be forming, so time to de-risk the short positions. See Co-Cq on page 4, plus AMEX, which often leads. Gold dropping, so fear is decreasing.
Also, Russia has a plan - federalize the Ukraine - which will take time to play out. The troops will go home shortly. Back to Business as usual.

03/26 - still Short. Looks nasty.

03/13 - Short. Model turned short this AM

(Still) Continued huge political risk from Putin. Russia is massing troops on the Ukraine border, NOT a good sign. I expect that additional Ukraine states - Russian speaking at least - will follow Crimea. This is NOT GOOD, as it says treaties are worthless - and giving up your atomic bombs is a bad idea. Very destabilizing. Not a great investing time. Money moving to safe havens - gold and US $

Hold your stomach. This will likely get worse

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OK, I am back.

I took some time off from this market timing approach, as the market has been green for some time

Less

AA - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

Ac IWM - 10 min Candlesticks, 700

Ad IWM - 10 min Renko, 700

bab - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bb - RSP (equal weight S&P)

Bc - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bcc - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bd - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

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