US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 66 Followers: 12 Votes: 3 Years Member: 2 Last Update: 23 July 2014, 13:39 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis
ETFs

07/07 - Model is Short. (EOD) (see last fig on page 9 for model signals)

07/02 - L/S. Market is overbought. Model went to 'cash'. Time to put on some shorts for protection. Expect a small correction over the next (few) weeks, but the underlying tend is still long. I expect we will go back to 'long' without a 'short' call, but who really knows....

06/03 - Model turned Long May 20th. Sorry for the late update. Overbought a bit. Some correction possible - but risk is gone. VIX is complacent.

05/03 - nothing to like, really. Most indices re-testing highs - possible H&S on QQQ. Ukraine collapsing - Russia acting irrationally. Not good for markets. Sell in May and go away. L/S still looks good

04/30 - L/S is very nice. Bifurcated market - sector corrections going on. Small cap, biotech, Internet are short, big cap long. I expect continued sideways for a while. Nothing to make it go up strongly, nothing (except Russia) to make it go down. Ho-hum

04/13 - Nasty week, but it looks like a short term bottom. Strong reversal bars, possible double bottom on QQQ. Expect bounce and possible retest. Russia risk is still real and large. L/S is best here

04/10 - Another nasty day, but overall market still trending Long. (rotation continues - see page 9). I have been L/S and happy

04/04 (EOD) - Well, that was a nasty surprise Friday. Model is still long, but I will look more closely this weekend. Still primarily a rototation out of junk (QQQ and IWM - especially Internet and biotech) to the better companies, +/- some panic selling

04/03 (EOD) - Still Long. Overall Market looks strong, in spite of the correction today. (rotation from overpriced junk to good stuff is going on). Russia is getting under control - soon to be a non-event. Slow realization that they are intimately connected to the rest of the world's economy - in spite of their right-wing nuts. (much like ours in may ways).

XIV has a >>20% upside in the next 30 days.... (Inverse $VIX)


03/31 - Long
03/30 - Cash %6F%7

Less

AA - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

Ac IWM - 10 min Candlesticks, 700

Ad IWM - 10 min Renko, 700

bab - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bb - RSP (equal weight S&P)

Bc - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bcc - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bd - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

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