US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 59 Followers: 14 Votes: 22 Years Member: 4 Last Update: 4 February 2016, 16:53 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis

02/04 EOD - Skiing, so haven't been updating charts. Sorry. Model still green. TRAN, AMEX, SOX are strong and usually lead. $BPXXX's are strong as well. Volatility still very high - like to see it settle down a bit..... Oil remains a wild card, with huge downside risk. In fact, I don't see any hope for a bottom in oil soon, so the Green may not last long...

01/29 EOD - Model still green

01/26 EOD - More green votes.

01/22 EOD - Model is Green. Still dominated by reversal indicators, but more are voting 'yes'. Again, this could be a Short term move.

01/21 EOD - well, that was a pretty weak bounce. Model moves from Red to cash. Reversal indicators say a bounce here, but we need a few more votes to get to green. I will wait a bit for some conviction. All has to do with Oil. This is a proxy war between the Saudi and Iran. There will be blood. I do not think anyone will blink - no bottom in sight - oil could become basically free. The good news is that the Arab world's stomach for funding terrorists may decrease....

01/20 EOD - huge reversal bar on most indices. Model trend still red, but short term trading model remains green. Flat day - need conviction to upside (all of this in spite of the intra-day angst)

01/19 EOD. Model back green. Again, at this point, this is a 'trade only' dictated by the reversal indicators ($RHXXX, $BPXXX, $VIX, Contango). Likely a short term bounce (1-2 days), unless the green gets a few more votes....

01/18 - Well, stopped out of trade immediately on 01/13. Signal remains red. Very oversold, but even the reversal indicators have 'given up'. Likely a few bounces, but this drop is too strong for it to be over

01/12 EOD - Signal back Green (trade only - likely 1-3 days). Trend still red. Reversal indicators dominate again

01/11 EOD Signal is back red.

01/08 EOD Signal is Green - Reversal indicators dominate. Note that this is a 'trade only'. The trend is still red

01/06 - EOD. Signal still red, but triggered 'oversold'


A - SPY - With Model signals

Gray 50%

Aa - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ad - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

Ba - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bb - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bc - $NAHGH-$NALOW - Daily Histogram, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

Bea - $NYHGH-$NYLOW - Daily Histogram, 700

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