US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 55 Followers: 18 Votes: 6 Years Member: 4 Last Update: 29 April 2016, 12:51 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis
ETFs

04/28 - Red. Nasty day. Could bounce a bit, but pretty sharp drop for it to be over - all after 2PM

04/27 - cash on open. (Green after the Fed spoke, but back to cash overnight. )

04/26. Cash on close - awaiting the Fed. Cash is prudent. Model is 'cash', but the hourly predicts a break 'up'

04/21 - Daily Red on close. Hourly is red since noon today. Dominated by 'reversal indicators'.

04/20 - Daily still green - hourly cash on close. Overbought (still). Look for a 2% correction, probably to the mid-bollinger band line (206), but not a total collapse (just yet)

04/20 - I am reminded that I haven't updated the charts lately. Sorry. I will try to keep current. Feel free to e-mail me if you think I am a behind (as some of you did today). Model turned back green on the 12th. Still Green. Reversal Indicators still flashing caution, tho. I am monitoring the hourly charts to catch a move to Red - I'll note hourly signals on the IWM chart Ad below. Also, if I get a turn on the hourly, I will update the notes here. I am at my desk for a bit....

04/06 - Red on open

03/30 Earlier comments from 03/21 still relevant. Look for some choppy sideways action for a while. Still green, BUT reversal indicators are flashing caution.

03/29. Back to Green as Yellin started speaking

03/28 Red on close. Likely just a 'correction', not a sea change

03/21. Everything is very green. All sectors are in line with Green. Caution, tho - very overbought. Reversal indicators (^VIX and Contango) are lighting up red. Tops are 'broad' (bottoms sharp). Look for some choppy sideways action for a bit, as the overbought relieves. I don't see any sharp downside risk just yet. Stay tuned....

03/17. Still strongly Green. VIX is calming down. Ms. Yellin gave the 'green light' to risk assets for a bit. A bit overbought - watch for some correction or sideways for a while.

02/24. All still Green

02/16. EOD. Back from vacation. Model turned red on 2/7, and back green on the cl

Less

A - SPY - With Model signals

Gray 50%

Aa - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ad - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

Ba - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bb - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bc - $NAHGH-$NALOW - Daily Histogram, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

Bea - $NYHGH-$NYLOW - Daily Histogram, 700

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