US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Author is a PRO memberHas Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 56 Followers: 16 Votes: 1 Years Member: 4 Last Update: 24 November 2015, 17:19 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis

11/18 - green on the close (Daily yellow, hourly green)

11/11 - short (on open)

11/09 - cash on open

10/21 - cash at EOD - Back green on the open

10/15 - back green

10/14 - updated charts. Sorry for delay. Daily is yellow, hourly model is red.
10/13 - back to cash (EOD).

10/05 - all Green (EOD). Back from biking. Focused on this for the next month, as we automate the investment model....

10/4- back yellow on the daily. Hourly green.

09/28 - still very red.

09/21 - red on close. I will remain in cash, as I am biking from Prague to Budapest, and can't stay awake in the evenings....

09/20. Cash after Yellen spoke on Thurs. Nasty chart. Who knows

09/13 - Model is green. Both hourly and daily. The charts are saying the Fed will be 'accommodative'- as usual. Even the Emerging markets are turning green. Good bet that the volatility will calm down this week. The Fed has a lot of pressure not to raise rates: The IMF asked them not to, the dollar is already too strong for US businesses, the labor report last week was not clear - giving them an excuse to delay. Inflation is still below targets. The betting sites have the likelihood of an increase at < 30%. Finally, all other gov'ts are easing - it's a 'race to the bottom'. There is no way, in my opinion, that the Fed will act to make the US less competitive - until inflation forces their hand. Finally, there is a tremendous amount of $ on the sidelines - all looking for a home.

09/10 - Well, the market opened up on Tues, but the hourly model stayed red. Daily is back to yellow. Good time to remain in cash.

09/07 - daily model is green - although the spike last Monday messed up a lot of indicators. Hourly is red, but should be green by Tuesday, if the market opens up. A short term bounce is likely early this week, perhaps even into the Fed next week....

09/02 - EOD - Hourly flipped Green on the close (barely), daily still very red. Usually, this means that tomorrow will be flat, and Friday 'down'. Caveat Emptor. (Fri


A - SPY - With Model signals

Gray 50%

AA - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

bab - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bb - RSP (equal weight S&P)

Bc - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bcc - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bd - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

Bf - $SOX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Usually leads QQQ

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