US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 67 Followers: 13 Votes: 2 Years Member: 2 Last Update: 22 October 2014, 12:26 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis
ETFs

10/20 - Model is green at EOD (Long, if you haven't figured out the color code).

10/15 - Model flipped back red on 10/7, and has been red since. However, the model is yellow (L/S) again at the close today, and the charts have a very strong reversal bar, so, a very high risk buy on the long side to cover the short risk...

10/05 - back to yellow (L/S) on Friday. Strong reversal day on Thursday, but the model has not turned green just yet.....

10/02 - Still SHORT. All is red and getting redder. However, XIV and ZIV are at levels that have been a 'good buy' in the past, (assuming that the world is not going to hell....) The implication is that if the volatility holds here, then things may be turning back up. Worth watching closely...

09/22 - yep. Down. Back short, and looking to stay short for a few days at least. Interesting, this is a small cap collapse, not sector specific....

09/19 - model back Yellow (L/S) on Close 9/18. Bollinger bands very narrow - expect a move soon (likely down, based on secondary indicators)

09/14 - Model flipped short on 9/11

09/03 - Model still long, and geo-political risk is lessening

08/29 - Hmmm. Model is still Long, and the market is over-bought. However, the hourly charts have flipped yellow or red, and the Geo-political mess with Russia is not good. I do not recommend holding a Long position over the near term - L/S or just Short my be better for sleeping.... The Russia situation is very bad, as the collective trust in the world order is being badly violated, which could be very bad for the markets

08/14 - (AM) Continues Long/Short, although the model will likely flip 'long' at the EOD (8/14 PM - yes, now Long)

08/07 - Long/short. (EOD). Likely a bounce here (False red on 8/12 - back to yellow)

07/30 - very Short. Just about all indicators have flipped red. Does not look good....

07/07 - Model is Short. (EOD) (see last fig on page 8 for model signals)

07/02 - L/S. Market is overbought. Model went to 'cash'. Time to put o

Less

A - SPY - With Model signals

AA - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

bab - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bb - RSP (equal weight S&P)

Bc - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bcc - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bd - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

Bf - $SOX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Usually leads QQQ

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