US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 69 Followers: 11 Votes: 2 Years Member: 2 Last Update: 2 September 2014, 17:22 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis
ETFs

08/29 - Hmmm. Model is still Long, and the market is over-bought. However, the hourly charts have flipped yellow or red, and the Geo-political mess with Russia is not good. I do not recommend holding a Long position over the near term - L/S or just Short my be better for sleeping.... The Russia situation is very bad, as the collective trust in the world order is being badly violated, which could be very bad for the markets

08/14 - (AM) Continues Long/Short, although the model will likely flip 'long' at the EOD (8/14 PM - yes, now Long)

08/07 - Long/short. (EOD). Likely a bounce here (False red on 8/12 - back to yellow)

07/30 - very Short. Just about all indicators have flipped red. Does not look good....

07/07 - Model is Short. (EOD) (see last fig on page 8 for model signals)

07/02 - L/S. Market is overbought. Model went to 'cash'. Time to put on some shorts for protection. Expect a small correction over the next (few) weeks, but the underlying tend is still long. I expect we will go back to 'long' without a 'short' call, but who really knows....

06/03 - Model turned Long May 20th. Sorry for the late update. Overbought a bit. Some correction possible - but risk is gone. VIX is complacent.

05/03 - nothing to like, really. Most indices re-testing highs - possible H&S on QQQ. Ukraine collapsing - Russia acting irrationally. Not good for markets. Sell in May and go away. L/S still looks good

04/30 - L/S is very nice. Bifurcated market - sector corrections going on. Small cap, biotech, Internet are short, big cap long. I expect continued sideways for a while. Nothing to make it go up strongly, nothing (except Russia) to make it go down. Ho-hum

04/13 - Nasty week, but it looks like a short term bottom. Strong reversal bars, possible double bottom on QQQ. Expect bounce and possible retest. Russia risk is still real and large. L/S is best here

04/10 - Another nasty day, but overall market still trending Long. (rotation continues - see page 9). I have b

Less

AA - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

bab - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bb - RSP (equal weight S&P)

Bc - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bcc - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bd - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

Bf - $SOX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Usually leads QQQ

Bg - $TRAN - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Often leads the market, up or down

This information is presented for education purposes only. StockCharts.com is not responsible for any comments, advice, or annotations presented on this page. Please review our Terms of Use for more details.