US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 65 Followers: 13 Votes: 6 Years Member: 3 Last Update: 25 November 2014, 11:52 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis

11/24 - Still LONG Breakout on SOX, TRAN, DJA. Very strongly Green.

11/20 - Back to LONG. Strong move up. Hopefully not a bull trap....

11/17 - CASH or L/S. Model changed to yellow EOD Friday, so time to put on some shorts for protection (or cut back on long side)

11/12 - Still LONG. Market may go sideways for a bit to relieve the overbought, but no warnings in sight....

10/30. Model is still LONG. Added sector charts to model. Helps slightly, especially with recognizing market tops. (see page 7 +/-). Moved 'unused charts' to last page, to avoid confusion ('Z prefix)

10/29 - All indicators are green. Strongly LONG. Breakout on TRAN and DJA. No indications of any major issue with the Long direction, except a bit 'overbought', so may get some small correction, but not enough to trade.

10/20 - Model is green at EOD (Long, if you haven't figured out the color code).

10/15 - Model flipped back red on 10/7, and has been red since. However, the model is yellow (L/S) again at the close today, and the charts have a very strong reversal bar, so, a very high risk buy on the long side to cover the short risk...

10/05 - back to yellow (L/S) on Friday. Strong reversal day on Thursday, but the model has not turned green just yet.....

10/02 - Still SHORT. All is red and getting redder. However, XIV and ZIV are at levels that have been a 'good buy' in the past, (assuming that the world is not going to hell....) The implication is that if the volatility holds here, then things may be turning back up. Worth watching closely...

09/22 - yep. Down. Back short, and looking to stay short for a few days at least. Interesting, this is a small cap collapse, not sector specific....

09/19 - model back Yellow (L/S) on Close 9/18. Bollinger bands very narrow - expect a move soon (likely down, based on secondary indicators)

09/14 - Model flipped short on 9/11

09/03 - Model still long, and geo-political risk is lessening

08/29 - Hmmm. Model is still Long, and the market is over


A - SPY - With Model signals

AA - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

bab - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bb - RSP (equal weight S&P)

Bc - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bcc - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bd - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

Bf - $SOX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Usually leads QQQ

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