US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 75 Followers: 11 Votes: 2 Years Member: 2 Last Update: 30 September 2014, 12:48 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis

09/22 - yep. Down. Back short, and looking to stay short for a few days at least. Interesting, this is a small cap collapse, not sector specific....

09/19 - model back Yellow (L/S) on Close 9/18. Bollinger bands very narrow - expect a move soon (likely down, based on secondary indicators)

09/14 - Model flipped short on 9/11

09/03 - Model still long, and geo-political risk is lessening

08/29 - Hmmm. Model is still Long, and the market is over-bought. However, the hourly charts have flipped yellow or red, and the Geo-political mess with Russia is not good. I do not recommend holding a Long position over the near term - L/S or just Short my be better for sleeping.... The Russia situation is very bad, as the collective trust in the world order is being badly violated, which could be very bad for the markets

08/14 - (AM) Continues Long/Short, although the model will likely flip 'long' at the EOD (8/14 PM - yes, now Long)

08/07 - Long/short. (EOD). Likely a bounce here (False red on 8/12 - back to yellow)

07/30 - very Short. Just about all indicators have flipped red. Does not look good....

07/07 - Model is Short. (EOD) (see last fig on page 8 for model signals)

07/02 - L/S. Market is overbought. Model went to 'cash'. Time to put on some shorts for protection. Expect a small correction over the next (few) weeks, but the underlying tend is still long. I expect we will go back to 'long' without a 'short' call, but who really knows....

06/03 - Model turned Long May 20th. Sorry for the late update. Overbought a bit. Some correction possible - but risk is gone. VIX is complacent.

05/03 - nothing to like, really. Most indices re-testing highs - possible H&S on QQQ. Ukraine collapsing - Russia acting irrationally. Not good for markets. Sell in May and go away. L/S still looks good

04/30 - L/S is very nice. Bifurcated market - sector corrections going on. Small cap, biotech, Internet are short, big cap long. I expect continued sideways for a while. Nothing to


A - SPY - With Model signals

AA - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

bab - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bb - RSP (equal weight S&P)

Bc - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bcc - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bd - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

Bf - $SOX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Usually leads QQQ

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