US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 68 Followers: 13 Votes: 2 Years Member: 3 Last Update: 27 April 2015, 10:52 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis
ETFs

04/21 - Hourly is cash on the close, plus I am away on vacation travel until May 13th, and will be updating only irregularly. I am in cash until then

04/20 - All green.

04/17 - Red on hourly. Still green on Daily, 04/16 - still green 04/15 - Both hourly and daily are green 04/14 - still red 04/13 - red. 04/12 - still green.
04/09 - Green. 04/08 - Green on close Bollinger bands tight. Market waiting for Alcoa to report. Could go either way, but down is more likely, in my opinion. 04/07 - Both hourly and daily are green; 04/06 - hourly green on close. Daily still yellow. 04/05 - Still Red on Hourly. Yellow on daily, (red or yellow since March 6th). Market weakening. TRAN and SOX especially (which tend to lead). Small caps holding up - likely reflection of the weak dollar, and a move of $ to US based companies, away from international large caps. Roughly half the indicators are red, half green... Overall, turning redder with time, tho

03/26 - A note to readers: I am moving the R/Y/G market call to the hourly charts when the volatility is high (e.g. >13). The daily approach lags too much. The hourly call works extremely well - we have been testing it since January - trading only VXX and XIV. Unfortunately, most of the hourly charts are in a separate file, and I can only post one - so I will make a note here and on the first chart of the 'call'. We make this determination at 3PM every day, and place our trades between 3:30 and 4:00. Just to be consistent. The 'model' is the same - we have a 'voting algorithm' which collects the individual indicators, and makes a 'market call'.

The change to the hourly charts moves the signal change up 1-2 days, often catching the big move (like yesterday), rather than waiting for the big move on the daily. The downside is that it 'over-trades' in some calm market conditions - but this doesn't hurt returns. However, we will mix-in some of the daily approach in low volatility periods to avoid this over-trading.

I have mo

Less

A - SPY - With Model signals

Gray 50%

AA - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

bab - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bb - RSP (equal weight S&P)

Bc - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bcc - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bd - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

Bf - $SOX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Usually leads QQQ

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