US markets - Timing Model

Leslie Gray Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 67 Followers: 14 Votes: 1 Years Member: 3 Last Update: 30 March 2015, 12:49 Categories: Market Timing
Sentiment Analysis
ETFs

03/30. Green

03/29 - green on the close Friday

03/26 - Red (Still - since 3/24)

03/26 - A note to readers: I am moving the R/Y/G market call to the hourly charts when the volatility is high (e.g. >13). The daily approach lags too much. The hourly call works extremely well - we have been testing it since January - trading only VXX and XIV. Unfortunately, most of the hourly charts are in a separate file, and I can only post one - so I will make a note here and on the first chart of the 'call'. We make this determination at 3PM every day, and place our trades between 3:30 and 4:00. Just to be consistent. The 'model' is the same - we have a 'voting algorithm' which collects the individual indicators, and makes a 'market call'.

The change to the hourly charts moves the signal change up 1-2 days, often catching the big move (like yesterday), rather than waiting for the big move on the daily. The downside is that it 'over-trades' in some calm market conditions - but this doesn't hurt returns. However, we will mix-in some of the daily approach in low volatility periods to avoid this over-trading.

I have modified the first chart below to show the hourly calls since Jan 1. A trade line indicates the day the signal changed. Returns start at that day's close (roughly)

Finally, I will try to be more consistent about posting on a daily basis. I have not been good about timely sharing in the past

Happy trading/investing

Les Gray

03/24 - red on close on the hourly charts. Daily still green. Hmmm

03/19 - yellow on 16th, green after Fed talked

03/06 - Model went to yellow on 3/3, red today. uggh

02/26 - Still Green. Strong for now

02/06 - Who know what is going on with this market. Model turned Green on 02/04. Big reversal in previous 'flight to safety' - Utilities, Gold down, Junk Bonds up. If the money flows from Bonds (fearing interest rate increase), then maybe it will go to Stocks. Who wants to own bonds today?

01/31 - May bounce from here for a day or 2, but

Less

A - SPY - With Model signals

Gray 50%

AA - IWM - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Ab - IWM - hourly

Move when 3/4 of the lower indicators change sign

Cash when 2/4 change, and ULT and RSI both drop from high

bab - $SPX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bb - RSP (equal weight S&P)

Bc - $NDX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Buy on ULT cross of 50. Confirm with decreasing MACD cross
Cash on ULT extreme (70/30) or RSI extreme (70/30)
Sell on MACD cross

Bcc - QQQ - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Bd - $RUT - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Be $NYA - Daily Candlesticks, 700

$NYLOW peaks good for identifying washout lows. Go to cash on these events

Bf - $SOX - Daily Candlesticks, 700

Usually leads QQQ

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