- Rank: 23
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- Last Update: 17 February 2019, 2:25
Categories:Elliott Wave Analysis
Feb 12, 2019, notice that as my votes increase the RANKING DROPS if you notice this please report to support
Feb 7, 2019, yesterday my vote in the public charts was subtracted, it would appear that Stockcharts is keeping an eye on my account. Please take note of the vote count before and after you vote to make sure your vote is tallied. Please report any irregularities to Stockcharts support. The other hack on Stockcharts is the ITALICS in brackets can no longer be used concurrently with BOLD. Bold overrides the italics, so bold italics is hacked out. What's more, the ranking is hacked as well. I have one more follower, and 4.5 times as many votes as Sean Gallagher Ranked 21. In addition, I have 530 followers on LinkedIn, and 3000 on Twitter who regularly view my charts by going directly to them, with the link I provide, rather than browsing from the top. The top two Public Charts showing my proprietary count for the Market since 1900, as a sound foundation from which to forecast. It is reconciled with Nobelist Robert Shiller's data. This is the only true count. While RN Elliott hypothesized it, he was only able to create it at lower degrees, not Supercycle as you see in the top Public chart, Robert Prechter failed miserably, his is NO channel. Obviously, Prechter's count is all wrong showing Cycle Wave IV to have a longer duration than Supercycle Wave (II). For an illustration New Wave Elliott part 2.
The second Public chart is Supercycle Wave (II), the Bear Market ended in 1932. Both Elliott and Prechter show it begi
Jan 21, 2019, The critical missing piece is the Bearish Diag II labeled by Prechtor as a 'Running Correction', a pattern that does not exist, while the Diag II was unknown to RN Elliott. Note how clearly the A-B-C stands out. The Fed instituted in 1919 was already stimulating from the start resulting in a truncated (A) Wave,(red) to mean it failed to drop below wave C, to the left and below... In Cycle Wave IV spanning 1966-77 Wave A denotes Cycle Degree. Wave (A) denotes Supercycle degree 4x the Magnitude of Cycle degree. A variation of that pattern is visible in the current Supercycle (IV) beginning 2000. The long New Wave Elliott count above is not common knowledge, yet is the
only count that reconciles with Shiller's Nobel prize winning research, on historical market and housing values... Prechter, has never admitted his errors
Jan 20, 2019 the Definition of a Crash in New-Wave Elliott: a 5-wave IMPULSE PLUNGE, where the upside corrections are mere pauses, due to the fact that only the DOWNSIDE transcends magnitude, while upside corrections remain the same magnitude. If you ponder a moment this is a highly logical function magnitude gearing up only to the downside. This is one of my foundational contributions to the Wave Principle, as New-Wave Elliott. NOTE: italics has been hacked to remove the concurrent bold type
Sept 27, 2018, When the Chart above is distorted after I log out, your can see what it should look like with this link https://www.amazon.com/clouddrive/share/fJMG7elKbDrdljx4EyYTZY9jmiQEuA2rd3qYWwaJ8om/aATbjR5ETDebaRaMOhIhaA?_encoding=UTF8&*Version*=1&*entries*=0&mgh=1
Sept 17, 2018, ThÝs chart shows a repetition of the pullback in 1929 before throw over of the upper parallel, only then can the crash occur, the same pattern Ýs likely
As you see above each major Bull Market is framed by two Bear Markets of the same degree. Supercycle (III) from 1932 to 2000 is bookended by Supercycle Waves (II) & (IV);
Jan 21, 2018, all Crashes are preceded by a False Breakout resembling a New Bull Market . As you see above in 1929, overthrowing the upper channel boundary, in order to lure-in as many investors into the Market at the top, to destroy capital required to back out excess prices, wages compounded by Fed Stimulus via deflation, in other words at least an equal and opposite reaction is required to withdraw mindless and perhaps low-integrity Stimulus intended to benefit the re-election of politicians, at the peril of the everyone else
Mar 22, 2018, UNLess I am logged in this chart maligns me from HACKING that negligent and irresponsible Stock charts management chooses to conveniently ignore -LOW INTEGRITY Management
Jan 15, 2018 KEY to the current TOPPING. Two attempts to break through resistance, finally breaking through on the 3rd attempt. In the long, Map of the Market by Magnitude above, notice the aqua circle at the top right, shows the short distance between the current Dow price, and the min upside required to breach the upper parallel, just as in 1929, before a CRASH can occur. Most likely first a false breakdown, as we had in BREXIT, should allow us to sell shorts and re-position at a more advantageous level before the upper parallel is breached. We are at that juncture NOW.
Jan 9, 2018 For the Crash to occur, the upper parallel must be breached a second time, after the first in 2000, just as in 1929, after the first in 1906. However, a fractal of the larger a-b-(a); a-b-(b) pattern likely pulls back first, in an a false breakdown wave a, before continuing higher.
October 29, 2017 This is our copyrighted Map of the Market by Magnitude since 1900, Notice there are no 5th waves, each 5th ascends degree to the next higher 3rd wave, Above, you see Cycle Wave V , becomes Supercycle (III), likewise Supercycle (V) is replaced by Grand Supercycle [III]
Sept 22, 2018 The US dollar index is well into the C wave, of an A-B-C Bear Market, analogous to the 1929 to 1932 drop in stocks. From the current 97 the index bottomed in 2008 at 72, while the Euro peaked at $1.6/EUR.
This is the reason why it makes so much sense to buy Euros with the funds normally allocated to Bonds, as our fiat currency craters, so will bonds. The Euro has a substantially higher gold backing than the dollar, just look at the statistic the US dollar backing is ounces of gold per $Billion, while the Euro is measured in ounces per $million. The low of the C wave in the dollar index will likely be equivalent to the drop in the A wave from the high of 121 to 72 or 49 points from the B wave high of 104 in 2017 = 55 My minimum target for the Dollar trough, in other words,
the Greenback will lose at least 50% of its purchasing power from the B wave peak to C wave trough
Sept 22, 2018 The Dollar has begun Bearish Wave 3 of C (blue)
Mar 25, 2018 The Charts have been re-arranged logically beginning with the Big Picture Dollar Bear Market, followed by the S&P and Volatility Below you will see the Big Picture Monthly index, followed by the corresponding long and short ETFs in our allocation.
Above is the weekly magnification of the USD above, showing the subdivisions of wave 3
Feb 14, 2019 At Major turning points such as prior to a CRASH, there are most often 3 a-b Transitions as shown above
Dec 21, 2018 - Notice the SPX is just 67.42 SP point above our minimum target FORECAST of 2400 set over 9 months ago
Led by the S&P, the next move in global equities is a black-hole plunge. Rather than protect long portfolios with Puts, why not liquidate them entirely? The Fed's stimulatory hand is played-out, & the impending Crash will strike with such force that the Silver Bullet from the past will no longer suffice to resuscitate the market. Since the market forecasts the economy more accurately than any economist, this time it's we, who must bite the Silver Bullet. Genuine Bull Markets reflect economic expansion by sub-dividing into 5-waves; Bear Market Rallies, like the Roaring Twenties, and Bernanke's megalomaniac Put are illusory, 3-wave upsides within larger Bear Markets. Only a 5-wave Crash is final. Artificial stimulus is an illicit drug, for which the Fed is the Global Pusher . Rather than more ?hair of the dog?, addicted economies can only heal via cold turkey abstinence. In return for numbing the pain of economic contraction, we have prevented healing the addiction, to dramatically aggravating the economy's ability to heal. By distorting economic incentives to divert capital away from the most worthy ventures, stimulus has exacerbated excess to perpetuate illusory Bubbles. The price of stimulus is a far more austere & enduring Depression, required to wring-out the excess via a rapid, downward GDP spiral to back-out stimulus in its entirety. Once the dollar collapse gains momentum to become universally recognized, the massive exodus out of the Dollar-denominated assets will force interest rates to skyrocket, to balloon the national debt out of control. As documented by Rogoff and Reinhart documented, This Time is NEVER different - eight centuries of financial Folly -a US default
The Market is a Fractal - the word coined by Benoit Mandelbrot who discoverd the structures in which the whole is echoed in its parts and sub-parts, yet remaining the same no matter how much they are blown up or shrunk down...Fractals used in motion picture animation to created the surface of the moon from a repeating pattern, just as Armies of Thousands can be simulated from a group of 12 men repeated over and over on the battlefield...the lower degree fractals are previews of the whole, they are often echoed inversely as shown above in green...as Mandelbrot stated all charts scale the same, without the legend you dont know if you are looking at a Daily or Monthly chart as above & below
***Timer Digest Signal
Sold long to SHORT at the close Jan 14
Aug 19 History repeats itself nowhere more often than in Market, for trading purposes, the $VIX is the reciprocal of the S&P
Aug 17 The $VIX, volatility index, which moves inversely to the S&P, was up 56% just a week ago, it has retraced most of the upside, leaving a paltry 14% gain. Most likely the remaining 14%, highlighted by the yellow wick in the last candle, will be given back, before the subsequent spike. That is just one example of why Bear Markets must be swing traded, if you are to hold on to your gains. When panic strikes, most investors resort to buying puts to offset portfolio losses... as the S&P Crashes, Wave 5 in the $VIX will Spike through the Roof. The current pattern is identical, but far more severe, than the lead-off from the 2007 low in the aqua inset Unlike wasting assets, the volatility ETFs are far preferable, since they have no time limit, so if you are wrong on the timing, you can always make a comeback on the next move.
SVXY inverse Volatility - Note above the Diag II in early October is missing the upper delimiter, hacked away from the left, as I update the count on the right. The intent is to have me appear delusional as he calls me...no one delusional is capable of earning Timer Digest's Timer of the Year 2015, and #2 Timer of the Year 2014
Sold all SVXY 44.78 Jan 9
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