Exceptional Bear- All-Time Bear Market Performance

Eduardo Mirahyes Has Had Over 25 Followers Rank: 48 Followers: 28 Votes: 25 Years Member: 1 Last Update: 27 July 2017, 4:18 Categories: Elliott Wave Analysis
Market Timing
ETFs

July 11, 2017 The Charts below explained with Buy/Sell limits https://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?url=https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/swing-trading-bear-market-top-eduardo-mirahyes&title=Swing%20Trading%20the%20Bear%20Market%20Top

July 9, 2017 A sneak preview at the optimal Bear Market Asset Allocation, as ETFs for one week only, the same charts and trading signals our clients receive

July 1, 2017 Dollar beginning a long BEAR market Wave C, while the Volatility index is beginning a long Bull Move inversely related to the S&P

June 11, 2017 'Silver & Gold inversely related to equities, with a lag'. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/silver-gold-inversely-related-equities-lag-eduardo-mirahyes

May 15, 2017- My articles and chart are all updated on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/mirahyes

Mar 30, 2017- Please refer to Mark Crumblin's list for the updated charts - LIVE for the time being http://stockcharts.com/public/1685468

Mar 4, 2017- Crashes Bookend Major Bear Markets, the first was the Dot-com Bubble Bust in March 2000, the second likely March 2017, no coincidence... https://lnkd.in/ecBY9px

Jan 31, 2017- Deutsche Bank an Opportunistic short after a 40%+ gain since October 12, DB just https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/deutsche-bank-now-swing-trade-short-diag-ii-sp-eduardo-mirahyes got slapped with a $10bn fine for money laundering

Jan 12, 2017- See the Daily Deutsche Bank Chart, it has done very well since we wrote it up several months ago, now it the time to take profits and wait for the bottom to buy back for the long upside ahead...from the current price of 19.13, we can expect the pullback to reach 13.15 where you can buy back with for at low risk. for the long wave 3.

Jan 9, 2017 - my account has been hacked again on auto-pay but cancelled....along with several others passwords phished from
Windows10 professional install, su

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$1 USD - Monthly Bear Market since 2001, Completed the B-Wave, Bear Market Rally in 2016 to plunge i

This first page has the Big Picture Monthly Charts, pages 2 & 3 have show closeups in Weekly and Daily candles. The Dollar has peaked long-term in Wave B. This Bear Market Rally is OVER!, Like All Bear Markets and corrections, it sub-divides into 3 waves, labelled A-B-C in bold blue. The B-wave is ALWAYS a 3-wave Bear Market Rally sandwiched in between two plunges in A& C. Labeled (a)-(b)-(c) in light blue, highlights Wave B's the 3-wave structure to confirm this is a TERMINAL move. The bounce of a minor wave ii, where the b wave could drop a bit lower, after the a-wave of an a-b-c dead cat bounce....We Swing Trade these masterfully...this is an opportune time to take a trial subscription with a 30-day 100% money back guarantee. With the current market conditions this is a low risk high return phase for Bears, and time to drop your bullish habits to preserve purchasing power & lifestyle. So if the Dollar has been debased, this time, cash & T-Bonds will be big losers. Instead of holding dollars, why no just buy Euros with your Cash. In 2008, the Euro peaked at $1.60/Euro....this time the Euro is the only logical Safe Haven for flow of funds out to the Dollar. The vast flow of funds out of the Greenback has nowhere else to go! Unlike the US, the Euro manipulation is relatively young. Initially all stimulus appears to work. Just look at how high the Greenback and the S&P have climbed with stimulus. However from here on out, unlevered dollar-denominated assets are for losers. its the right asset classes, augmented by leverage that overwhelm erosion of the dollar's purchasing power. Now's the time to bail-out of these over-valued assets. Exceptional Bear provides expertly timed trading signals for the Euro, where a dead cat bounce is overdue....this is the opportunity to sell T-bonds and buy Euro Cash as an ETF, Guaranteed by Morgan Guaranty or outright, to park your low-risk capital. You don't really believe Ben Bernanke reversed the Bear Market, do you? forestalled DEPRESSION S

$1a The Euro priced in Dollars - the B-wave rally will likely exceed the 2008 top of $1.6/Euro.

Like Gold, the Euro is inversely related to US equities. The start of B-wave, Bear Market Rally in the Euro converges with the same for GOLD....the Euro is backed my far more gold than the US Dollar. QE in the European Union is 2 years old, relatively new compared with US Monetary Easing since 1998 under Greenspan ... in the intermediate term stimulus appears to do the trick for those with a short time horizon, such as politicians

$1b SILVER - Monthly a nascent Bull Market

the nascent B-wave, Bear Market Rally in Silver will likely exceed the 2011 high , making for a buoyant 3-5 year RALLY in Silver, as equities crater.

$2 GOLD - Weekly - Junior Miners vs Majors represented by Spot Gold price

Since Gold in operating at Cycle Degree, 1/4 the magnitude of the S&P at Supercyle degree, it is best viewed in weekly increments. This chart compares Spot Gold to the Jr Miners, by the ETF JNUG. Like small-cap stocks, for Junior Miners hikes Gold price drop to the bottom line, they become highly profitable with a marginal price increase. The Major Gold producer's profits track Spot Gold, where price increases are eroded by higher overhead, however when the situation reverses at the end of the cycle, the Major Gold producers remain profitable even as the price of gold drops below the cost of extraction for the Juniors. The majors simply moth-ball the high cost mines, until the spot prices exceeds their unit costs. At the beginning of a Major Rally, Jr. Gold's price augment rapidly, only to fall off a cliff when they drop below a higher cost of extraction...same as small cap stocks which tend have difficulty obtaining enough capital... Small Cap Silver and Gold are beginning buoyant period similar to small cap equities beginning in 1982.... all this in spite of the death of equities proclaimed by Barron's on the cover in 1982

$2a Gold's inverse relationship to Equities

Gold and Equities have a long-standing inverse relationship. When stocks CRASH, Gold and Silver will skyrocket in a Bear Market Rally far more vigorous than any Market driven by Greed - this one fueled by Safe Haven shelter. On the left y-axis you see the price of Spot Gold, since the start of the long Bull Market, Supercycle Wave (III) ended in 2000. The Fed has forestalled the inevitable, only to magnify the vanishing of Trillions in a flash, to withdraw Bull Market excess, multiplied by Fed manipulation. As always, the higher markets climb, the harder they must fall by Newton's law. The longer they accelerate, the more time they have to destroy capital in a Flash Crash.

$2b S&P 500 Monthly since 1982 - Bullish until 2000, Bearish until valuations drop at least 62% from

The next major move is a DIVE for the S&P. Rather than own any long equities to protect with puts, why not liquidate all equities? The larger trend is Bearish and the Fed's hand is played-out, the upcoming Crash will hit with such force in a surprise attack that all the Fed's firepower (massive clandestine Futures purchases, as in 2009, 2000 and 1987) will come as a knee-jerk reaction after the damage has been done. Genuine Bull Markets reflect economic expansion by sub-dividing into 5-waves, while Bear Market Rallies are phony 3-wave upsides, within larger Bear Markets. Only a 5-wave Crash is final. Artificial stimulus is like an illicit drug. In return for numbing the short-term pain of economic contraction, we postpone healing, while dramatically aggravating the ailment. Stimulus condones excess, to further distort economic incentives, exaggerating asset Bubbles to Crash & Burn once reality sets-in. We will all pay the price for stimulus with a far more severe & enduring Depression defined by human devastation. Artificially-low interest rates undermine corporate Pensions, by forcing them into the riskiest assets just prior to a Crash. Rather than catch-up underfunded pensions they instead totally obliterate pensions. Instead of comfortable ample pensions, retirees who failed provide their own pensions will be forced to live like students on social security alone. In the long run, stimulus debases the currency, and augments human suffering by prolonging and deepening the Economic Depression required to heal the economy for future generations.

$2c VIX - Volatility Index Traces the inverse mirror image of the S&P 500, as the equity market

The $VIX, volatility index, traces the inverse S&P. When panic strikes, investors buy puts to offset the drop in portfolio value... Wave 5 Spike will go through the roof. at least 1.618x the perpendicular length of wave 3 from the low at the far right. Anytime this fear index drops below 9.5 it is a high return/low risk tradeMore¬ 

$3 T-bond Yield Monthly since 1980 - Interest Rates must spike to at least 12.5% for the 30-year Bon

Former Safe Havens, Rather than the undervalued price of money formerly set by the Fed, higher interest rates will instead be forced by the Market, in a surge shown by the dashed green arrow at 125. Where it retraces the bearish Diag II. From enduring undervaluation comes a dramatic reversal to Spike higher rates, and a huge Capital loss for those expecting a Safe Haven... 

$3a 30-Year US T-Bond Price - not a safe bet anymore

The price of Bonds must drop commensurate with the hike in interest rates demanded by investors to hold us DEBT, from current prices, a 57% capital loss is required to reach 65 on the Y-axis, to retrace the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree, wave (iv) marked by the aqua bar

$4 WTIC - Crude Oil Monthly

The Big Picture Monthly Crude Oil since 1997. is beginning Cycle Wave III Bull Market. Primary wave 2 could trough in an irregular bottom in the area of 22. The Crude Bull Market Topped Cycle Wave I in 2008, as stocks and the Dollar went into free-fall. Still inversely related to equities, Wave III should break through the roof, as equities go into free-fall. This time, we can expect a similarly lagging Rally in crude oil. Before OIL can take off, it must first stop-out many Buy & Hold fools. The likely low is in the range of $27. Once the dumb money gets stopped out, there are no sellers on the way up, fueling a Spike... For now, we hold INVERSE, or short Crude Oil, as the better option, going our way.

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