The dk Report

David Kneupper Has Had Over 100 Followers Rank: 16 Followers: 120 Votes: 216 Years Member: 12 Last Update: 29 July 2014, 15:49 Categories: Chart Patterns
Trend Analysis
Market Timing

A dashboard of timing and health indicators that help identify Intermediate Buy/Sell signals. Charts updated daily.

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-01- NASDAQ -- Daily

Basic NASDAQ daily chart with key indicators. Buy/Sell signals determined by the 5-10-20 Timer, chart 4 below.

-02- NASDAQ 60-minute -- Short-term Indicator

The NASDAQ 60-minute chart shows short-term market health, and helps identify entry and exit points. Strong rallies stay above the blue one-week EMA, and stocks act best when the blue line is above the red. This chart gets noisy around inflection points and trend reversals.

-03- NYSE Tick -- Short-term Indicator

The Tick chart shows the short-term health of the NYSE. The red line is the 3-day EMA, and the light blue line is the one-day EMA. A climbing red line above zero is a sign of a healthy market. Crossovers of the 1-day and 3-day EMA's in either direction identify very short-term trend changes.

-04- The 5-10-20 Timer -- IT Buy/Sell Indicator

-05- TOF Ratio -- IT Buy/Sell Indicator

The NASDAQ divided by the Put/Call Ratio helps visualize sentiment among options traders. Call buying and the climbing lines it creates is positive for stocks, and 21/50-day EMA crossovers trigger Buy and Sell signals. This ratio was first created by long-time board poster Richard McRanie [The Old Fool (TOF)]. Thanks, TOF.

-06- Summation Index -- Market Breadth

The Summation Index is a classic breadth indicator based on net advancing stocks. It has a high degree of reliability for IT market direction. Applying an SAR overlay identifies Buy/Sell bias changes. In sideways markets, Summation is prone to occasional head fakes in either direction. It works in tandem with the McClellan Timer, and the two work to confirm one another. McClellan triggers are usually ahead of Summation signals.

-07- McClellan Timer -- IT Buy/Sell Indicator

The McClellan is a sensitive indicator sometimes prone to head fakes in either direction. This is especially true in sideways markets. The McClellan moves you in and out quicker than either the 5-10-20 or the NASI, making it useful for active investors who prefer scalping quick rallies and avoiding short-term pullbacks.

-08- Risk Ratios

-09- Dow Theory

-10- Annotated VIX -- Daily

The VIX charts expectations for choppy market action over the next 30-day period. It's derived from the premium investors are willing to pay for short-term portfolio insurance, hence its reputation as a fear index. A high VIX ins't necessarily bearish, but indicates big price swings are possible in either direction. The VIX has a tendency to stay within 10% of its 10--day MA. The line at 20 marks the long-term historical mean of the VIX.

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