Art's Charts

October 2018

Art's Charts

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SystemTrader - Update to RSI Mean-Reversion Strategy and Dealing with the Dreaded Drawdown

by Arthur Hill

Dealing with Drawdowns. Mean-Reversion with RSI, Chandelier and PPO. Universe, Market Regime and Ground Rules. Sample Signals for IJR. Testing the Big Four. Plotting the Drawdowns. Setting a Risk-of-Ruin Stop. Conclusions. .... Dealing with Drawdowns... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with video) - Oversold, But Broadsided

by Arthur Hill

Performance Overview. Oversold, But Broadsided. First Target for S&P 500. Nasdaq 100 Breaks 40-week SMA. FAANG Stocks Lead NDX Lower. Mid-caps and Small-caps Bear the Brunt. Downside Participation Expands Furthers. Utilities Buck the Selling Pressure... Read More 

Art's Charts

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India and Brazil Hold Up, but Strong Dollar Hits Foreign Index ETFs

by Arthur Hill

India and Brazil Remain Positive. The All Ords Index versus the Aussie ETF. Rupee Extends Decline Relative to US Dollar. Rupee Weighs on India ETF. Symbols for Currency Crosses. ... India and Brazil Remain Positive ..... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Watching Benchmark Lows for Clues on Performance - New Lows Expand in Indexes and Key Sectors

by Arthur Hill

Setting Benchmark Levels for Comparison. Analyzing the Top Sectors and Benchmark Lows. New Lows Expand on Latest Dip. Discretionary, Finance and Industrials Lead New Low List. Software and Cyber Security Hold Up. CheckPoint, Fortinet and FireEye. Food and Charts for Thought. ..... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with video) - Dow Theory and Primary Trends

by Arthur Hill

Performance Overview. Correlations and Volatility Rise. Scanning and Measuring Participation. Bulk of the Evidence Remains Bearish. S&P 500 Battles 200-day. Dow Theory and Trends. Healthcare and Utilities Hold Up. Software, Defense and Health-related ETFs... Read More 

Art's Charts

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SystemTrader - Reducing Moving Average Whipsaws with Smoothing and Quantifying Filters.

by Arthur Hill

Trading SPY with S&P 500 Signals. Long and Long-Short Backtests. Smoothing to Reduce Whipsaws. Testing Different SMA Combinations. Bollinger Bands, Envelopes and Keltners. Backtesting the Filters. Final Thoughts and a Suggestion. ..... Read More 

Art's Charts

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October is Different from February

by Arthur Hill

The 200-day SMA acts as a benchmark we can use to compare price movements. We can use the 200-day SMA to compare the current decline in the S&P 500 against past declines. We can also use the 200-day SMA to compare the decline in the S&P 500 with declines in the other key indexes... Read More 

Art's Charts

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SystemTrader - Testing and Flirting with the 200-day Moving Average

by Arthur Hill

A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? Ranges Wreak Havoc on Moving Average Systems. Backtesting Five Indexes. More Whipsaws than Strong Trends. Other Uses for the 200-day SMA... ..... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with video) - The Straw that Broke the Bull's Back

by Arthur Hill

Performance Overview. Fattening Up and Surviving Drawdowns. Breadth Indicators Turn Bearish. Measuring and Comparing Downside Momentum. S&P 500 hits Oversold Extreme. The New Normal for QQQ? Pullbacks within Uptrends: XLV, XLK, XLY, XLU. Charts Going Nowhere: XLE, XLI... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Downside Participation Increases - Scanning for Odd Balls

by Arthur Hill

Broadest Decline Since April. 16 Stocks Bucked the Selling Pressure. Scan Code for Advancing Issues. The Russell 2000 and Moving Averages. A Shift from Growth to Value? ... A Lopsided Move ... Chartists can measure participation using the AD Percent indicators... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Nine Leading ETFs Become Short-term Oversold - Understanding the Chandelier Exit - 4 Stocks to Watch

by Arthur Hill

XLF at Moment of Truth Three Stocks and a Third of XLF August-September Leaders are Oversold Understanding the Chandelier Exit SPY and QQQ Join Oversold Parade 9 Oversold Setups and 1 Example Stocks to Watch: HOLX, VRSK, AMJ, WMT ..... Read More 

Art's Charts

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SystemTrader: A Rules-Based Approach for When to Cry Uncle

by Arthur Hill

Defining the Broad Market Environment. Measuring Participation. Uptrends Versus Downtrends. Measuring Market Leadership. Weight of the Evidence. ... The Broad Market Environment ..... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Weekly Market Review & Outlook (with video) - Working with Assumptions and Predictions

by Arthur Hill

Performance Overview. The Perfect Storm or Just Coincidence? Working with Assumptions and Predictions. We've Seen this Movie Before (QQQ). New Lows Increase. More Uptrends than Downtrends. XLC Reverses Counter-trend Bounce. XLF Bounces off Support. XLI Holds Strong... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Getting Perspective on Small-caps, the Energy SPDR and the Oil & Gas Equip & Services SPDR - plus Six Stocks

by Arthur Hill

Small-caps Become More Oversold. XLE Ends Another Long Correction. XES Forms Another Higher Low. Stocks to Watch: VZ, NOV, PSX, VLO, WMT, JPM. ..... Read More 

Art's Charts

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Biotechs are Leading the Market - 3 to Watch

by Arthur Hill

QQQ Leads with New High. IJR Firms Near Broken Resistance. 3 Biotechs To Watch. ...QQQ Leads with New High ...The Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) advanced to a new high on Monday and continues to show upside leadership... Read More