The Canadian Technician

February 2012

The Canadian Technician

If energy is breaking out...

by Greg Schnell

Lets zoom in on energy stocks. Someone recently said Suncor is trading like oil is at $70. Well, for canadian heavy oil, the price differential to $WTIC is around $30 due to the pipeline issues. So that helps explain why our Cdn oils have been more suppressed.   Here is a dashboard of Canadian Oil stocks.           Here are some other dashboards. This has a few fracing and service companies. These look really nice here. Read More 

The Canadian Technician

BREAKOUT!

by Greg Schnell

Hey, the $TSX finally broke above its 200 DMA. Let's enjoy the rally! What I like is that we finally broke above the 200 DMA with volume. As you can see this area has been resistance in a big way. Let's list the resistance and check them off as we go past them. 1) 200 DMA - Black linefinally above it.  2) This 50% fibonacci level at 12590 is very important as you can see by the red arrows. 3) There is more resistance around 12750 to 12800. You can see we got turned back there twice before. It was also Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$COPPER caught the flu this week...get a doctor!

by Greg Schnell

Ask me what I am bullish about. The XEG.TO got a little life and moved back above the 40 week DMA. As a sign of encouragement, Crude oil broke out of it’s trading range. That is helpful as a major commodity. In the USA you can look at XLE for the ~equivalent~ of the XEG.TO. See John Murphy's article today on the energy sector.  Stocks move in cycles. For a bull market, usually the bond market starts to soften, the equity market starts rolling, and then the commodities get going. That is typical. This inter-market relationship has been in place for many years Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Tina Turner - "You Better Be Good to Me"

by Greg Schnell

Apparently the English language has more ways to say the same thing than any other language in the world. I guess we were blessed with Shakespeare or finance guys. When things repeat, we have many different phrases for them. There is pattern recognition, repetition, cycles, behavioral finance, following the herd, overbought, oversold, breakout, failed breakout, etc. etc. You can see most descriptions above, in this chart: RN Elliott back in 1934 found an interesting pattern that repeated in multiple time frames. He would see this as 5 waves in the primary direction and 3 Read More 

The Canadian Technician

This is an important chart for Canadian and Commodity Investors

by Greg Schnell

One chart for tonight. THe $TSX is firmly against the resistance of the 200 DMA. A fail here would be significant. Caution is advised. Remember, the Canadian Dollar, the $TSX, the $SPTEN are heavily influenced by $WTIC,$copper and $HSI. The $CDW looks weak to me here, the $TSX looks weak here and the energy sector looks weak here. I don't like copper being down 4 days in a row. $WTIC has some influence from the middle east and $BRENT. When the cold spell in Europe recedes, $BRENT may well recede too. Sometimes $GOLD behaves as a Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Are century old indicators just too obvious to work any more?

by Greg Schnell

Living out in Alberta, I am in the home of ranch country which marks territory for the bulls. To the West is Banff National Park, Waterton National Park and Jasper National Park. All of these parks are home to grizzly bears and black bears.  Most days it feels just like the market. Bullish views in one direction and bearish views in another direction. Currently, everyone can find arguments to support their position. Lets review the first work of intermarket analysis. Lets talk about the DOW The DOW doesn't have Apple in it. The Railroads used to be the comparison. Now Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Using the SCTR Rankings

by Greg Schnell

One of the frustrations investors have is looking through the charts of common stocks and never seeing the great growth stocks that are accelerating. How can we find these stocks? Well the SCTR ranking system is extremely valuable. It will show you the powerful stocks and then you can choose those stocks to propel your portfolio. Why is this so important? Doesn't the market just move together?     Click on this button on the home page.                  ^^^ Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Commodities...to buy or to die?

by Greg Schnell

Here we go again.Great stuff here in the commodity space. I'm getting more bullish after looking at some long term data and comparing it to the current charts. I still think the market needs a rest. The $VIX has been on the low side of the 20 EMA for almost 10 weeks now. The SPX closed outside its Bollinger Bands Friday. Can it go on longer. Absolutely. Can it stop here. Absolutely. But let's get ready for a bullish move higher by identifying some sectors that look poised to move and be ready. I would prefer to buy after the market pulls back. One reason this blog today hones in on Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Party like its 1994? LIfe is like a box of Chocolates...

by Greg Schnell

The market of 1994 was particularly difiicult. It soared from the lows and created excellent rallies. Each rally was crushed and the 200 DMA flatlined. More importantly, What happened next?   That was a picture of the first 8 months of 1994. The peak on the right was Sept 1 1994.   Let's look at 1995. OK. That's what I likewhen do I get a rally into 1995?????????????? Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Resistance Lines Everywhere...Can We Break Through?

by Greg Schnell

Just check out these charts: Everything is screaming overbought. I think we are in a new uptrend and perhaps we will get a pullback on Greece news. Lumber, Copper, are in great shape. Here we sit. The COMPQ has blown through resistance. The SPX and Dow are testing the resistance areas this week. MSFT, WMT, INTC are moving into fresh air spaces on their charts.   $TSX - Flirting with the 200 DMA     $DJW - Flirting with the 200 DMA. This is a global stock index. So the trend is wider than the USA.   Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Candlestick Tails

by Greg Schnell

Well, here we are. Testing the top of the markets again. The intraday price action today was very interesting. The Dow made its high around 10:15 in the morning. It drifted sideways for a few hours, then fell out of bed. All the indexes peaked in a different hour of the day it seemed. I have posted this chart to show how the indexes compare to their previous highs of 2011.   You can see some are approaching their previous highs, but some are still a ways away. Let's focus in on the Read More