The Canadian Technician

End of quarter review.... Interesting charts below

by Greg Schnell

Very interesting quarter, let's do a review. While watching the US markets powering higher to the tune of 12%, the $TSX is up 1%. If you were in the strong stocks the pullbacks have been jarring like 20% in a week in WPT.TO. If you were in the banks you have found a bit of a safe harbour. Let's look at the $TSX over multiple time frames. FIrst of allhere is the TSX - 7 year picture. Starting at the top. We do not want the RSI to stop under 65. This is a problem after going below 40 on the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Lumber related stocks...still going up?

by Greg Schnell

  Here are two lumber/paper stock dashboards. Pretty mixed bag. You can see there are sharp contrasts between the leaders and laggards. Home Depot and Lowes in the US are doing pretty good. Look at RONA at the bottom hereNo momentum higher at all. A pretty interesting collection, but you would never know that the Home builder stocks in the US are having a power house spring. I continue to be amazed how the Canadian market has not responded to the US bullish chart action Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Canadian Banks - Dashboard view

by Greg Schnell

The Canadian banks are very interesting here.  Well, here is the dashboard. Lets start at the top. The Financial services sector has been rising nicely. You may remember I compared the $SPTFS to the $SPX and we still underperform the $SPX with our financial sector, but it doesn't mean there isn't some money to be made. The BNS.TO chart finally broke above the $54-$55 level that has been a ceiling for 9 months. Good news. BMO.TO looks to be hanging just below that Read More 

The Canadian Technician

A quick look at sector strength SPURS

by Greg Schnell

If you have been reading the blog for a while, you know that I find comparing sectors and stocks to the SPX a valuable tool. Well, here are the Canadian sectors compared to the $SPX.  As you can see, all of these sectors continue to underperform the $SPX. they are all tilted down. If they outperformed the $SPX, you would see them rising. In order, Technology, Energy, Materials, miners, global gold miners, industrials. Tough crowd. Nothing is outperforming the SPX. Lets look at the rest of the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Is this a buying cycle?

by Greg Schnell

With all our cycle work over the last week, I took a look to find buying cycle lows.     Lets describe how we started these lines. Well, the 2 best buy points on the chart are at the 2003 and 2009 lows. They look like places I would like to buy! I noted the locations with green arrows. When dragging the cycle lines out, I just try different spaces between the points. In this case, breaking the 2003 rally into 4 sections seemed to work best. However, you can see this Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Some long interval work on the $SPX - you might like this!

by Greg Schnell

The more you speak to the veterans in the industry, the more they talk about cycles and intervals. Recently, Tom McClellan of McClellan Oscillator was in Calgary to speak. He spoke of cycles and time shifted intervals.  Cycles indicate a repetitive low - low pattern. Time interval theory suggests that time interval (eg 15 months) is important, but it may be a meaningful high or low. George Lindsay use time intervals that ended up spotting an exact date where multiple time intervals would converge and create a strong decision point on the charts. I spoke with Martin Pring this Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$UTIL breaking out

by Greg Schnell

As a follow up to the article on utilities, here is the relative strength in purple, starting to move higher. Looks like the love of stability is starting to return. Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT Read More 

The Canadian Technician

A quick lookback at $CDNX, Look ahead on $NATGAS.

by Greg Schnell

One of the benefits of being a stockcharts member is the multiple ways to display data and save it for future looks. On the weekend I was scanning through my various chartlists.  This chart popped up in my "Canadian Technician" chart list. So using the search field on the stockcharts website, I put in CDNX. It shows everything on CDNX that is on a stockcharts blog, chartschool etc. Magically, the first time I posted the CDNX chart was on September 22. 2011.   So without adding any Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Commodities - The Big Picture- Canada, Copper, Gold, Australia,

by Greg Schnell

I got a comment back on the Long Term $TSX chart from earlier in the week. One of our fellow CSTA members from Ontario, Bob Hunziker, sent in this great chart. Why is it great? When we spend too much time on short term charts we fail to see the big picture. Stepping back can be really helpful.  Martin Pring told me that the longest trend is always dominant. That makes sense but I usually use 3 year weekly or daily in my daily reviews. So a regular trip to the 10 year view helps.   Read More 

The Canadian Technician

XEG correlated to the TSX

by Greg Schnell

These charts rolling over here are spectacularly troubling! At the bottom of the list is a 13 year chart of the TSX. It is never good when the MACD resides below zero. So, maybe it's a one day deal, but be aware. In 2008 the SPX spent the entire year under the 200 dma. For Canada, having copper, energy stocks, material stocks and the TSX below the 200 dma is a strong caution. I am transcribing what I see in the charts. Maybe you can see a more optimistic upside. XEG and TSX  Both of these charts made 2011 highs and lows the same week. It would appear that the support in Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Oh oh...XEG.TO

by Greg Schnell

Canada's energy sector ETF. I posted this chart on Feb 18. This is a problem. This chart has not been able to break resistance. Caution is advised as the $TSX tracks this chart pretty closely. Remember when the $TSX topped out in 2011? Same time this chart topped out. Good Trading, Greg Schnell CMT. Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Checking out XLU to demonstrate a trend change in indicators.

by Greg Schnell

Today I want to show a chart that would define ‘poised to move up’ but has not already made 25%  rather than a chart with downward momentum like the CNQ chart illustrated last week. This is really a direct comparison to the blog I did on CNQ.TO to explain the differences when the chart is looking better.  Lets look at XLU.  This is the ETF for the utility stocks in the US. It combines lots of companies of significant size. We know it has been underperforming the overall market. So how can we tell it is trying to turn higher? Read More 

The Canadian Technician

What is going on with CNQ?

by Greg Schnell

This is the equivalent of the famous stockcharts blog - "Don't ignore this chart!" This stock has been one of Canada's institutional favorites. It has soared with every oil price rise for 2 decades and plummeted in the 2008 commodities dive. So Oil hit $110 this week. How did CNQ respond?   This chart is showing more stress than a central banker in 2011. Let's start at the top and discuss why this chart feels shaky. 1)  RSI. Recently when oil broke out Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Agriculture is warming up

by Greg Schnell

Today was very interesting. It really felt to me like a day of major trend changes, but the charts just hinted rather than roared. Some of the interesting data was on the Agriculture index, livestock and defensive sectors seem to be gaining relative strength. The strongest sector in the last few days is the Consumer Staples. The Utilities chart looks like the relative strength is starting to bottom. The GOLD chart needs no comment as the blog sphere was roaring. Oil was interesting. The oil services index in the US started to lose some relative strength. The USD soared. It felt like all Read More