The Canadian Technician

$USD - The story of May

by Greg Schnell

Well, This chart went vertical, and the commodities went south. Enough said. As fear returns to foreign markets and money migrates to the US Dollar denominated indexes, we can continue to expect weakness. Caution for Canadian stock picking is still advised. This is currently driving the trading. You could say the Euro collapse is, but the reality is that the US Dollar denominated commodities go down as the dollar rises. Copper continues to move down. Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Baltic Dry Index... Not exactly mouthwatering....!

by Greg Schnell

This chart represents the shipping of dry goods. 6 year chart. Many people disregard this indicator as the ships ordered in 2007 bull market have been delivered over the past few years creating too large a fleet for demand. That said, the $BDI rallied off the October low. To see it roll over at the former support resistance line (red line) is BAD! Flat out Bad! This commodity space indicator is not healthy and the recent bounce was off the 2009 lows. Iceberg dead ahead? Keep watching $copper. Copper is making lower lows most weeks.  If you want to gain some real knowledge Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Shorting the Long Bond - a final low in the base?

by Greg Schnell

Either all the world is insane together as this MACD says the yield momentum is improving. (the mass physcology  of crowds) Or somehow Europe prints money and the world is just fine. Who knowsbut this will be a great clue. The long bond yield could be making a final low with a much higher MACD which would be a very bullish signal to buy something like TBT. While this trade has not set up yet, it definitely needs to be monitored full time. See the $COMPQ for OCT 4, 2011 MACD as an example.Notice how high the MACD is currently, even though the price is almost the same as the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

An Update on Wheat! Radical swings in action

by Greg Schnell

Recently, I blogged about how the wheat futures had already broken down, but the current spot price was still above support but looked to go lower. Well, look at the volatile response wheat has had recently. The spot price has broken down out of the six month range, popped back into, then right out of the top of the range all within a few weeks! So it has broken the six month range on both sides in a few weeks. Talk about wild volatility!  In general, wheat has moved opposite the $USD. Makes sense as that is what most commodities have done. Interestingly, in the last few Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Where can oil find support? $38.55?

by Greg Schnell

Crude is what makes the world go around! Living in the heart of oilville (thats not olive oil!) we pay particular attention to crude. Currently crude trades below Alberta government budget forecasts as well as industry budget numbers. I believe Cenovus used $104. Crude spiked into the high $80's last week and sent the planners back to the budget drawing board. Oil budgeting is never easy.  Today I want to walk through a series of charts that lay out $WTIC price movements since we hit our highs in 2008. Its a fascinating walk through fibonacci levels. I have previously discussed Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$NATGAS - building its base.

by Greg Schnell

Well, $NATGAS appears to be building a bottom. Currently we are testing resistance.  Interesting how Natgas bottomed the last week of April when the SPX topped. Hedge fund mania or a real change in the supply/demand? Here is the inventory chart from the EIA. The red line is the current year, and the grey shaded is the five year range. If this sideways trend on the inventory can get back inside the 5 year range, this would be great for Natural Gas stocks. I am surprised that we have not Read More 

The Canadian Technician

GOLD- New low, a bounce, or a one day honeymoon?

by Greg Schnell

GOLD is this finally the bottom? Probably every Technician on the planet expected a bounce here in Gold. This is a significant reversal candle. So lets lay out the issues. Gold's ability to go up while the $USD drops is not common. All the other commodities continued to give way today. Some will say as the US approaches Fed Easing, Gold will soar. Commodities in a down draft, and the US Dollar Roars HIGHER! Those are significant headwinds as people move to cash. The Red line at 157 on this chart will be a significant point of resistance. But perhaps this is the low. At least you have a Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Is your portfolio on a profit diet? It could be for a while!

by Greg Schnell

One of the things the world keeps talking about is food inflation. Well, wheat futures are breaking to new lows. The chart below is the current month contract for $WHEAT. However, the futures curves all look weak and are getting weaker.  The Current Month wheat has not broken to new lows. However the futures have broken down on multiple expiry dates.  Obviously the next thing to look for is other food commodities. Soy is powering higher, but the weekly bars are wide and Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Canada's Favorite Miner sits on support

by Greg Schnell

While everything feels fragile at the moment, we need to be building our shopping list. Today lets talk about  Teck. While markets in general are getting thumped and our $TSX has given up 1200 points since March, a rally is to be expected for a few days. The miners have been banged up pretty bad. This chart looks stronger but still in a downtrend. So to stay within the trend, buying Teck here would be looking for a bounce and sell as it rallies up to the top of the channel. This would not be trading with the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Homepage Stockcharts Alert! $TSX -one-click !

by Greg Schnell

Check this out! I have been looking for a quick view of the $TSX from stockcharts home page for a while. Look what has made it onto the consistently popular list. $TSX. Nice button for Canadians!  Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT PS. It would appear when oil couldn't hold its breakout this week, we are in for more pain. $Copper continues to falter here. I'm staying cautious.   Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$SPX 1600 or $SPX 1200 next.. An imminent move is upon us. I say...

by Greg Schnell

If we just use an $SPX chart with a 20 month MA, some simple data pops! Notice the clarity of this chart. How it is always riding clearly above or below the 20 MA. Let's compare to the other countries: Here are the times when the US crossed to the upside. Look at the green lines. The blue lines on the Europe indexes represent the crosses of the other markets. What I notice is how quickly they all followed in 2003 and 2009. Now look at the right side. Only Read More