The Canadian Technician

Trend following is just so easy to do

by Greg Schnell

Well, Another day another trend. As long as you use a 10 minute chart! The longest trend from low to high has been 6 days. Oil stocks are starting to get a bid. The gold breakout this week couldn't be more timid.  Friday's bizarro world. It is an amazing time to be an investor. Amazon misses with a P/E of 290 and the stock goes up. Amazon with a P/E of 290 Rises almost 8% on an earnings miss and 3 year earnings deceleration of -16% and sales growth of 40%. Read More 

The Canadian Technician

53' of Bear Canary. Don't open the Door!

by Greg Schnell

FEDEX - I heard this morning that Fedex is not like UPS at all. It is only UPS that has a problem. Let's check the charts. Here is FEDEX weekly from 2005. Well. Is it a canary, A black bear, a Grizzly or a Kodiak?   Notice the RSI has given us a bear market signal. A bear market signal is when the RSI falls to 30. On the following rally, the stock has trouble pushing the RSI above 60-65. Bear market signals on an RSI are pretty reliable, but they never tell us when the following top Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Barbell opinions, mixed charts...what to do...

by Greg Schnell

Well, just back from time in Tuscany, and the markets have a thousand stories. All interesting, all for us to trade. The interesting thing is the opinions are barbell weighted here. Strong bull market, strong Bear market. Lets do some review. Here is a chart of $COMPQ. Looks ok, or does it? Let's zoom in on the last 4 months.   Lets label why on late June early July I started to get optimistic. 1) We were heading in to earnings season. 2) the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Is this Deja Vu all over again?

by Greg Schnell

Here is the current $SPX. Sitting in the middle of the six month range, bouncing off the 200 DMA. Now compare with 2011. Here is last years $SPX.   All the indicators and oscillators are behaving the same. Even Warren Buffet says the world is flat. So my bullishness is tempered when a guy with great internal data starts being less optimistic. That doesn't mean a 12 man Calavry won't come save the world with some shock announcement, but it does mean caution looks Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$SPX stares at resistance

by Greg Schnell

So here we are at the resistance line.  The market bounced off the 40 week MA and pushed higher. It made it back above the 10 week MA and pushed higher. The weak PMI data showed up and it still moved higher. The weak jobs report showed up and it pulled back today. This 1350 level is very important. If the earnings week next week can't push the markets higher or hold this 1350 level, we'll have to revert to a bearish posture. I am not surprised to see a down day, but the buyers have to show up for work and expect the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Gut wrenching reversals - some of my lessons

by Greg Schnell

In the market rally of August 28th , 2010 I sat firmly committed to being short while the market roared ahead in the face of global issues. It was a painful lesson to ebb and flow wth the market.  Friday reminded me of the experience again. Remember July 1, 2010 rally, gripping and strong. Remember the August 28th, 2010 rally, gripping and strong when everything seemed doomed.  Remember the October 4th 2011 rally just when the charts were breaking critical support Read More