The Canadian Technician

Stockcharts makes finding a heartbeat easy!

by Greg Schnell

At the recent Chartcon event in Seattle, John Murphy spoke on how he follows the markets. One of his favorite charts is the sector perf chart. It can tell you a lot about how the sector rotation is moving in the market. In July, the market had swung from defensive to a little bit more optimism. I just generated this chart at noon Friday. So it does not include Friday's rally. Some great wisdom in John's setup. Let's work through some of it. If the cyclicals and industrials are strong, that is a very important clue to be more bullish. When the defensive sectors are stronger, it is not Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$TSX month end review

by Greg Schnell

Some folks like to use the 40 Week MA as the dividing line between bull and bear markets. Long term planners will look on monthly charts.  Today becomes meaningful. A Federal reserve push up has been pretty common recently at month ends. Mario Draghi spoke late in July. Ben Bernanke spoke today. Well, today the $TSX is flirting with the 40 week line again. The 40 week is right at 12000, and the market will be trying to better that for the monthly close. Can it finally push through with conviction? That Head/Shoulders neckline at 11,000 to Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$USB Bond - Born to Run, or for investors to run?

by Greg Schnell

$USB - Sometimes the Bond market is a better clue to the future than the equities. The bond market is just so big, it is very important to understand the sentiment towards holding bonds. Recently Warren Buffett's holding had a dramatic drop in Municipal bonds. Well, is that showing up in the 30 year yet? Based on the RSI, the bond market would still appear to be in Bull mode. Everyone talks about the low yields. But for a foreign buyer, they may also get the currency appreciation which helps them with Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$Copper - Short Circuit ! No surge protection required

by Greg Schnell

Nothing  would be better than $COPPER jolting higher. Unfortunately, lightning has not struck and sent this to higher ground. It's tepid at best, and the miners below are not staying above the 10 week, even though $COPPER is. This could be back underwater soon. There continues to be no current coming through this  $COPPER chart. $COPPER is the best evaluator of Economic recoveries worldwide. Caution is warranted. One of those triangle signs for a downed power line Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$USD the center the action part 4

by Greg Schnell

Last week we covered the $USD and $WTIC. Today, I want to continue on that subject and talk about what the long-term implications of US dollar breaking higher would be.  Based on some of the other information  with significant trendline failures, can we use this to help guide our bias? Let's talk about the $CRB Index compared to the S&P 500. This is a ratio of  the $CRB:$SPX. Starting at the top, we have the RSI in a weak position. It's near 30 on the monthly ratio chart. The main chart shows commodities massively outperforming the $SPX from 2000 to 2012 Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$USD - The Centre of the Action Part 3

by Greg Schnell

OK.  First of all, did anyone take the time after reading yesterday's blog about weekly timeframes to go and check how the move in 2005 played out with the negative divergence on the MACD? The real reason that the 2005 move interested me was that it had the same slope during it's advance as the current move. Anyway, it had an extremely similar pattern to the current pattern on the MACD. Technical Analysis is all about pattern recognition. Well, the RSI, the MACD and the current slope of the move are all Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$USD - The Centre of the Action Part 2

by Greg Schnell

One thing that I absolutely love about Stockcharts.com is the ability to save multiple charts of the same stock, currency, commodity or index. It allows you to have different ideas on different charts so you can explore different ideas at the days progress. Below you'll find a few different looks at the $USD weekly. I annotated this chart shortly after the beginning of 2012 and updated it now. Look how important these two horizontal lines are on the $USD chart. UNBELIEVABLE how many times they have been Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$USD - The Centre of the Action

by Greg Schnell

As 'The Canadian Technician", I seem to write about the US Dollar a lot. That is because 80% of Canada's exports, all commodities, and seemingly most equities are tied to the tide of the $USD. Let's start Macro on this blog, and then we'll fill in the shorter time frames through the weekend. Here is the 10 year time frame chart of the $USD.  This chart has a little too much data on it so let me walk you through slowly.  1) the Blue vertical lines are placed based on the $USD hitting it's head on the line. When I showed this chart previously, it was just Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$WTIC - Time for a check up

by Greg Schnell

"Up from the ground come's a bubblin' crude."  Maybe we should change Jed's theme song to "Up from the down come's a bubblin' crude oil price". OKno songwriting skills present. Let's do some chart analysis on crude. I have a few different ideas here. First, let's look at a chart of crude with a few indicators on it that I don't usually use. First of all, the RSI has slammed into overbought above 70. Oil seems particularly sensitive to this level as the orange caution arrows Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Suncor - the mojo must be having a mojito.

by Greg Schnell

Suncor broke above it's July highs 5 weeks ago. Let's check the chart. Well, considering Suncor broke out mid to Late July, it sure hasn't done much. The stock appears stuck between $31- $32.50. The rate of Change at the bottom is still above zero, but struggling. The MACD has flattened and the RSI has not made it back above the 70 RSI to start a new bull run. This weakness or delay is especially odd, with crude rising almost every day. The fact that the rise in crude isn't helping to drive the stock higher off a low base like Suncor's is troubling. While we continue to make Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The age old expression "From dollars to donuts!"

by Greg Schnell

Tim Hortons double double? or double trouble? As parents stand inline to enrol the family in the fall / winter sports activities, one thing is always in their hand. From Timbits soccer jerseys to timbits hockey uniforms the fall season is a Tims marketing spectacular. Thousands of kid's have come home from tim's Camps and the drive through lineups get longer and longer, as the temperature drops. SO, on a recent scan of stocks under the 40 week, low and behold, up comes a double double. (Double cream, double sugar for the non coffee drinker!) Tim's chart shows up on the radar Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Part 4 of 4 The Teardown of a growth stock

by Greg Schnell

Well the final chapter has arrived.    OOOUCHHHH!. Trilogy fell off a cliff and landed in the penalty box. Who could have seen that coming? Well, by studying the weekly charts I can't find any clues that a great growth stock was going to give up so much so fast.  After the breakout from the fourth pattern or the third double bottom, Trilogy went on to new highs.   The stock was able to soar another 30% from the first new high in October and ultimately produced a higher high on the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Part 3 of 4. A Teardown of a growth stock.

by Greg Schnell

Well, the Third part of a four part on TrilogyYep, the titles as confusing as the stock market! The Double bottom in 2009 and 2010 were strong patterns within a strong uptrend. It was an unmistakeable bull market trend on the 40 week, and Trilogy gave some buyers some incredible places to buy. Look what happened in late 2010. Trilogy went on to create the Classic cup and handle pattern associated with growth stocks. It had pulled back from recent highs, creating a few red candles. As the right side of the cup was forming, look at the volume surge.  In an often seen Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Part 2 of 4. Teardown of a growth stock.

by Greg Schnell

Lets move it out a year. Trilogy August 2010 The weekly RSI on Trilogy stayed in the top half of the RSI Band. Never touching 40. Beautiful. Look at the price action on the chart. Twice, Trilogy put in a double bottom formation, shaking out weak holders of the stock. What I mean by that is if you used the previous low as your stop you got stopped out as the price moved below it on a weekly chart. Both times, the stock dropped below the 40 Week MA and reversed higher. Our philosophy on this price action is the institutions just scan for stocks in an uptrend that are currently Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The teardown of a growth stock. A four Part Mini Series.

by Greg Schnell

Let's just move off the global political spectrum today and analyze a very interesting Canadian Company. The Chart has all kinds of technical patterns, and we need  to understand them. More importantly, how can we use stockcharts.com to make some money. Trilogy energy knocked the shackles off its price chart on the move from the base below $5.75 to $40. Through hindsight, we'll analyze how to make this stock  a discoverable, holdable, and profitable stock. Here was the basing pattern in 2009. Trilogy kept finding resistance around the $5.75 - $6.00 level. Well as you can see Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Banff Commodity Conference Information and The Canadian Banks

by Greg Schnell

  I was looking through charts today and the Banks in Canada are trying to break some downward trendlines. Here is the volume push and the trendline break on Royal Bank. The move is barely discernable on the weekly, but at least its breaking out when the market is quiet with volume on the daily. TD.TO and CM.TO are also moving nicely. A big thank you to those of you who were at Chartcon 2012 in Seattle. I enjoyed the opportunity to meet so many people and to present my Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$WTIC PnF breakout

by Greg Schnell

Last week The Oil Pnf Chart started the month on a column of O's. I wrote about it in the Chartwatchers newsletter. You can find the link here. Chartwatchers The chart immediately reversed to the upside. What a beautiful bounce off support. You can see the auto calculation from the PnF sits at $108. Ultimately, that is where we would expect to see the chart climb to. It does not mean it has to do it in this column. The downtrend has been broken. Very nice breakout that should give us some room to the upside. There is still room in the conference. We'd like to see you Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$COPPER - Heads or tails

by Greg Schnell

The $COPPER dashboard finally has a little life in it. All the mining stocks are trying to jump above the 10 week line. Finally. A commodities rally into the fall? I am getting more bullish on gold and the Canadian Energy as well. Good Trading, Greg Schnell Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$NATGAS

by Greg Schnell

Well, $NATGAS is making some interesting moves. The key will be testing support at $2.75.  A firm bounce off the level would be very bullish. We saw a major downdraft yesterday in $Natgas, but there are reasons to be bullish here.  1) The price is above the 50 and 200 DMA, the H/S neckline is support and coincidently the neckline is also at the level of the moving averages. This should really create a strong shelf to find support.  2) The H/S bottom has excellent technical structure and coincides with major market low levels historically.  Read More