The Canadian Technician

September 2012

The Canadian Technician

Storm warnings in the distance...why looking out helps!

by Greg Schnell

Here is a good example of pattern recognition in my mind. Notice the similarities of the indicators at the March highs and the current highs. This chart is the index for the top 100 Euro companies. Do you see anything interesting? I personally really like looking at the MACD divergence. Notice how the price made a new high, but the MACD surged to a much lower high. Enough to get above the signal line, but then it rolls over. Compare the March MACD pattern to the current MACD pattern. It looks Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Turn up the flames! No, not the $NHL! How about $NATGAS?

by Greg Schnell

Up in Canada the onset of October starts to bring some cooler nights and the fireplaces get lit. The furnaces have been kicking in with the alarm clocks to take the chill out of the morning air. I was in Canmore yesterday to see the colour change with the Larch trees lit up in bright Yellow. Shorter days and the onset of cooler nights kindles the change. While perusing the charts today, I found a nice little kindling fire in the chart in $NATGAS. Bouncing off the 40 week support, rising above the 10 week, and Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The On Balance Volume is Off Balance!

by Greg Schnell

This chart is my working chart for the $SPX. (And it gets worked.)    One of the most interesting windows of the indicators currently is the OBV. During the 2011-2012 rally, the OBV ramped up with the market. On the current rally, the OBV has been significantly muted. I would suggest it is in a sideways range since the June low or comparing the July high. The trendline break on the OBV marked a nice exit for the 2012 spring top. With all the central banks inducing this rally over the last 3 weeks including Japan last week, the OBV managed a brief surge starting around Sept Read More 

The Canadian Technician

5 lines with a Lifeline

by Greg Schnell

My thinking is leading me in a particular direction here. Today is a particularly interesting time. Crude was at Horizontal resistance. It tested above and failed. The $TSX is at a horizontal resistance. We are awaiting the breakout. $GOLD is at horizontal resistance. We are awaiting the breakout. $Copper is at Horizontal resistance. We are awaiting the breakout. $AORD is at horizontal resistance. We are awaiting the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Copper cuddles horizontal resistance.

by Greg Schnell

$Copper check out the chart. Copper is at a really interesting place this week.  3 of the 5 global miners have broken their respective downtrend lines. Sounds bullish!!!  Well, not so fast. Normally, the miners would move before the metal or at least start to outperform the metal. Here, Copper is testing April highs and very close to testing 2012 highs. But look at the miners. Only one is above the April level. Lots of them are a significant distance from the 2012 highs. You'll notice the blue arrows in the chart. Copper had the shock rally Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Starting line or finish line?

by Greg Schnell

Sometimes we call it support/resistance lines. These lines are so interesting. To a non Technician, they would appear irrelevant. To the technician, they are the primary basic structure inside the toolbox. I don't need to convince anyone as to how important they are. At the Banff Conference we learned so much about the different approaches to the market by various technicians. From Fidelity with $1.3 trillion to blog writers and floor traders, the horizontal support and resistance lines are important.  So check out this chart. We are about to find out if the $TSX is able Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Crude spill - a larger signpost?

by Greg Schnell

$WTIC had a rough 20 minutes today. I wrote about $WTIC a month ago, Read about it here. (august 23) A couple of problems that we discussed earlier. 1) When we used a PnF chart to talk about crude it had an upside target of $102. 2) The Red volume price bars said the area of $95 to $100 would be difficult. 3) The 61.8% fib retracement was at $97.70 4) We discussed the MACD and the RSI had no divergences. 5) The RSI does not like to stay overbought. The orange Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Looks Like the Loonie Launch has Lifted off!

by Greg Schnell

Canada is a Commodity currency.  Interestingly, the Cdn Loonie has been on a tear for 3 months now.  The Canadian toonie has followed oil higher, but the Canadian toonie chart is not really similar to the commodity we nickname Dr. Copper because of its ability to diagnose the economy. Copper only broke out of its range (and what a breakout) in the last two weeks. (right after I published an article saying no surge protection required!) The $CRB has had a nice upslope. which has Read More 

The Canadian Technician

What does overbought look like? Can it continue?

by Greg Schnell

Sometimes, the market goes on a tear. Recently, it has moved up fast into what some would call overbought. Markets can stay overbought for a long time, so that is bullish not bearish. But a few indicators identify 'severely overbought'.  There is a variety of indicators that one can use like the % of stocks above the 10 DMA. I have a few that I like. Here is one that will remain mysterious so we can explain it without prejudice. So the indicator is on top, and the $SPX is below. You can see it really blew Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Rogers comes calling

by Greg Schnell

The Banff Conference was tremendous. Thanks to all who were able to make it. Back into the markets today after a very busy period. What will have a bigger impact this week? The Fed delivering a speech or Tim Cook delivering a speech? It looks to me like Appleland and the Fed are both pushing here. The Banks and the cellphone carriers are pushing higher. Check out Rogers. If you like to buy breakouts, this ones  calling! Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT       Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Crescent Point - Is this Stock Aptly named?

by Greg Schnell

I pulled up Crescent Point Energy today.  This arc looks like a moon path moving across the south sky. It can also be called a rounded top. Crescent Point has started to make lower highs on the weekly chart, but still has some higher lows. It is definitely at  a 'point' on the chart that bears watching. The blue moon last week also produced a blue candle on Crescent Point's chart. What bothers me is that as oil has held up for the last 5 weeks, Crescent Point has made some lower lows and lower highs for 5 weeks .It now sits below the 40 week and try to find support Read More