The Canadian Technician

Gold Stocks Start Shining, Home Page Shiners Galore

by Greg Schnell

Some very interesting looking charts right now. Just following the stocks on the home page In the TSX box and the SCTR TSX box. Here is Yamana breaking out. [2012-02-17 6:19:02 PM] Greg: This message has been removed. Bombardier looking interesting. Are you using these boxes? They produce gem lists every day!!! Check out the PNF chart for BNS. I found it on yesterdays list! TD was on the list yesterday! Nice chart. Ford has some nice Positive Divergence  and Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Are the AMZN Alligators Snapping At A Three Year Trendline?

by Greg Schnell

Amazon posts the worlds most remarkable resiliency with respect to its shareholders. One of AMZN'S claims to fame is it's remarkable P/E with earnings sliding for the last 2 years. Why would an equity portfolio manager own it? Well, if you have to outperform the Index to keep your job, it's hard to do if you don't keep the big stocks in your portfolio so you can at least stay with the index. The manager may tweak the weighting, but they can't be left behind so they need to have some of all the major weightings. Look how AMZN fits in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the overall $SPX Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Major League Pennants Start to Wither

by Greg Schnell

Just an update on the major pennants. Oil has broken out to the downside again. All the other charts have followed this move as the $USD has moved higher. This still looks to have ominous outcomes ahead. IF  the USD continues to rise, the trend for the other tickers would most likely be down. First support for oil looks like $79. A break through of 80.50 on the $USD will set off a significant response. Its being watched by almost every technician on the planet. Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Are the AMZN Alligators Snapping At A Three Year Trendline?

by Greg Schnell

Amazon posts the worlds most remarkable resiliency with respect to its shareholders. One of AMZN'S claims to fame is it's remarkable P/E with earnings sliding for the last 2 years. Why would an equity portfolio manager own it? Well, if you have to outperform the Index to keep your job, it's hard to do if you don't keep the big stocks in your portfolio so you can at least stay with the index. The manager may tweak the weighting, but they can't be left behind so they need to have some of all the major weightings. Look how AMZN fits in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the overall $SPX Read More 

The Canadian Technician

In LOVE with a LULU? or In LOVE with a LEMON?

by Greg Schnell

LULU can never be a lemon? With 2 young adult daughters and a wife, I see a lot of LULU apparel. In the recyclable bag cupboard, I think it is dominated by the LULU shopping bag. I even joked about LULU at the last monthly CSTA meeting in Calgary. Not a laugh from the crowd. This is a serious cult much like the Apple fan base. I tried to short LULU last year and the trade reversed and I got stopped out.  These trendy apparel companies can be volatile. Here's the current chart of LULU. LULU has expanded into mens clothing with some success. I am still LULU free. But Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$NATGAS needs snow in Chicago

by Greg Schnell

$NATGAS Just an update on $NATGAS. I've posted this chart many times, recently saying that $3.75 would be resistance. Well, we've spent 3 weeks trying to get through the level.  We got a foot of snow in Calgary and it sure feels like winter. Now we need Chicago and NYC to see some white stuff to help surge this above the resistance line. We are substantially above the 40 week MA so a reversion to the mean is probably imminent. THe nice feature is that the 40 WMA has a positive slope finally. I'll be turning on the fireplace log lighter tonight to help this Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The 800 Pound Gorillas Are Leaving the Party

by Greg Schnell

Recently, this earnings campaign has been 'better' than expected according to Bob Pisani's work on the floor. Steve Grasso, a floor trader was not as optimistic. Two opinions, that's what makes a market. A buyer of bargains, or the seller of a trending market trendline breakdown.Lets make our own opinion. Here is MCD falling below its 40 WMA (week moving average) and the 10 WMA. I insert it here just because it was today. All the rest are techs. Here is MSFT Here is AAPL While Read More 

The Canadian Technician

"Russell, Where Did You Put The Floorboards?"

by Greg Schnell

Just a quick note on a glaring double top. The $RUT got within $0.07 cents of its previous high back in May 2011. It has currently rolled over on the Sto's and the MACD. This currently looks like a big double top. Maybe its just a brief retest and pullback before going higher. I think with the intense weakness in the US market today, there might be more downside to come. When I was at the MTA conference in New York in April, 2012 a great floor trader - Chris Cady - talked about the market profile and his line in the sand was the Russell at 822. The Russell has briefly surged Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Dr. Copper Will Diagnose the Future of this Market

by Greg Schnell

Copper found support at the 10 week and the 40 week line this week.  Is this a bull flag? $HSI is moving higher above its 20 Month MA. India has pulled back recently but is clearly above the 20 month. Looking for a few more markets to get above. All three major European markets are above te 20 month MA. I feel like we are on a knife edge for the market. Global move higher or a substantial pullback right here? I'll be keeping an eye on good ol' Dr. Copper to help tell. Good Trading,Greg Schnell, CMT Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Here Are Some Charts with "Major League" Pennants!

by Greg Schnell

As we lead into the Options expiration Friday, the markets are getting a little bounce. Check out this set of weekly charts. Lets look at them in order . 1) This is a 5 year trendline in oil. What a massive pennant. A little worried that the break below the bottom line in the may pullback might be telling us the new direction. You will also notice a horizontal line support right at $79. If the $USD goes higher, I think crude goes lower and visa versa. $XOI. This $XOI chart has a pennant Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Choosing "(Stock) Love Over Gold" Today

by Greg Schnell

Dire Straits had some great albums. One of my favorites was Love Over Gold. Today the stock market took that literally and loved stocks in dire straits over gold. I don't have a long term bias one way or the other on gold. I just want to be on the right side of the trade. One of the big things I noticed in my charts recently is the Yen. What does that have to do with anything right now? Well, follow my love struck logic and we'll see if you agree. Here is the Daily. Read More 

The Canadian Technician

So if Yesterday's Long Cycle was "Interesting"... This One is Spooky!

by Greg Schnell

OK, So what makes this chart spooky? Well, it is an entirely different cycle than the blue cycle posted on Thursday. That's not spooky. There are 13 lines on this chart. 6 dotted, 7 solid. But that's not spooky. Keep in mind the scale is 30 years. The spacing is 327 weeks. It is just a best fit cycle. You slide the cycle around till it best fits the majority of inflection points on the chart. Major pivot points demarcated on a chart over 30 years are pretty interesting. What if I said this Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Think You Know the Markets? Then Identify this Pair of Charts

by Greg Schnell

Here are two stocks. One above the other.  Do these charts appear similar to you? Both charts have a runup to a top, a big pullback, a runup that just eeked above the old highs, a plunge down to below the previous lows, and a multi year push into a final wedge shaped high that is currently reaching major, major resistance.  They are both weekly charts. One is over a 8 year period, the other 13 years.  Can you name the top chart?  Can you name the Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Seven-Year Cycle Nearing its 2012 Inflection Point

by Greg Schnell

Here is an interesting 131 week cycle. This cycle seems to be pretty darn important. It has marked the top in 1987, 2000 and 2007. It has marked some major inflection points in other years. The 65.5 week half cycle seems just as important. This marked many high and low inflection points. What makes this particularly important is that a new line will be in place right about now. What does this mean to us? It could be a significant inflection point.  Breaking out of this 12 year sideways range in a meaningful way, or breaking down. I have Read More 

The Canadian Technician

Even a 5-Year Could Love this Chart!

by Greg Schnell

The Canadian Stock channel (BNN) used to have a morning guy that had a great quote. "A five year old with ruler can do this!" So why is it so hard? Well, here's a chart the 5 year old would have done very well with. The bottom line seems to be, when the trend line breaks, I should open or close my trade. Well this is the global picture. It helps you see the big picture. It has hugged the line for a while now. I'll be respecting the breakout or continued support. We seem to be at the decision point. Good Trading, Greg Schnell, CMT Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$CRB intraday data is discontinued by ICE

by Greg Schnell

Just an update on the $CRB chart. You will still see the closing value of the CRB but the Intraday data will be lost. This is a change by ICE apparently. My Blogsphere was significantly disgusted by the loss of data even with the change in calculation back in the mid 2005 or 2007  period. Anyway, the time periods are different on these charts but you can decide which index you like. For intraday data, You can use the GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Indexes) $GTX is the total return index. You can google to read up on the differences. Here is a shot of Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Apple Starts to Soften

by Greg Schnell

The last few weeks has been very difficult for the $NDX. Apple is a key part of that obviously. This is a real area of support that needs to show up here. We need to see the institutions step in and turn the big techs higher. The Negative divergence is starting to show its hand. Unfortunately, Apple has a bigger breakdown. It is important to keep the very big picture in mind. The phone technology seems to be balancing out across the world. The competitors to Apple are Read More 

The Canadian Technician

What This Market is Telling Us

by Greg Schnell

Sometimes, the market seems to need time to sort itself out. Check out this daily chart of the $SPX.  Various clues over the years get added into an analysis. Investors Business Daily likes to look at where the market closes each week relative to the high low range for the week. In simple words, was it a strong week, or a weak week? You can do that analysis on a daily chart as well. Dan Gramza  does this with daily charts. As the markets roll, you look for progress Read More 

The Canadian Technician

$WTIC Update and why PnF is valuable.

by Greg Schnell

I want to talk about using PnF today. Point and Figure (PnF charts) can be found at the bottom of your regular charts. There is a hyperlink to take you to the PnF chart. Recently, at the Banff Conference, David Keller of Fidelity spent a substantial part of his presentation on PnF charts and how important they are in Fidelity's technical work.  Sooo, I got to thinking, if its good for managing 1.3 Trillion, maybe my account could use some PnF. Just sayin'. Well, below is three different PnF charts tracking the same thing. The Price of Oil. Let's analyze how to change Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Oilpan has sprung another leak this week.

by Greg Schnell

Today's chart is best demonstrated through PnF. I recently remarked that the $10 drop in oil suddenly was a bad omen. Usually when there is no reason that is a bigger problem. Well, today oil is letting go but the TSX Oil and Gas stocks  are holding in line or only down 1.2% while oil is off 3.6% and Natgas is down hard as well. Some firm conviction on the stocks. The Chart above has the most activity at the $36 or $37  level. Looking left you can see that is where the majority of boxes  filled in are. You can see that the O's have been getting a little weaker each year Read More 

The Canadian Technician

The Big Picture on Global Markets and the $TSX

by Greg Schnell

Here is my Global markets summary in just one slide.The table is demonstrating how the world markets are shifting from below the 20 month MA to above the 20 month MA. If you look at the $TSX chart farther down you can see why this is important. The 20 month MA is a long term average and large institutional managers like to look at this big picture. I like a few things on this grid. If the BRIC countries can turn green, we have a good chance of turning much higher. Brazil ($BVSP) was above and pulled back in September. The $SSEC is not close to turning up. Russia ($RTSI) is pretty close Read More